Horror Top 15

Okay, "Jaws" is NOT a horror movie. Who needs to swim in the ocean anyway? Then what is "Jaws" other than a damn great movie? Good question. And where's "The Exorcist"? Never really scared me. It's worth seeing, but to me a horror movie has to be either a roller coaster ride of laughs and thrills or a haunted house. Preferably, both. The Exorcist, is neither. And this list changes from year-to-year depending on my mood. The movies that are ALWAYS on it get an asterisk. If you want to opine, e-mail me at mike@rotoaction.com and maybe I'll post it here.

EVIL DEAD 2*: To me, this movie is the gold standard because it's literally like being on a roller coaster and it's a haunted house. Plus, it's damn funny one moment and jolts you from your seat the next. The blood literally drips off the screen. I mean, we're talking oceans of blood. Bruce Campbell is the all-time horror movie hero thanks to his recurring Ash character. The other Evil Deads are all worthy, too, though Army of Darkness really can't be called a horror film.

DAWN OF THE DEAD*: You can almost put the remake on this list, too. But I prefer the lumbering Eddie George zombies in the original to the Barry Sanders zombies in the newer version. I have to admit that the movie doesn't hold up as well as I always hope, scare-wise. But Romero gets his props here for the social commentary on our vapid consumerism, which is still relevant today.

NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEAD*: Now this movie still holds up as a pure horror experience. The black and white treatment gives the whole film a nightmarish quality. I love how the situation is never really explained, which also adds to the dreaminess of it all. The film is black and white in another way, too, with overtones to the civil rights movement with the cool, collected black hero being forced to overcome the blighted ingnorance of the white man, who ultimately gets the last laugh at the end of a gun.

ALIEN*: This is not a sci-fi movie. This is a haunted house movie. In fact, it's the best haunted house movie of all time. Again, we get the prerequisite sense of doom. The characters' inablity to escape the horror is transposed on us, amplifying our fears. A really great ride. Plus, the first real female horror movie hero (remember, Donald Pleasence saves Jamie Lee Curtis in Halloween)

HALLOWEEN*: Took Frankenstein a step further with an indestructable creature that, unlike Frankenstein (okay, Frankenstein's Monster), was completely inscrutable, especially under that creepy mask. The music works to great effect here. The movie's strength is conveying a sense of hopelessness in the face of unrelenting horror. Unfortunately, all the atmospherics seem hopelessly dated so it's hard not to chuckle sometimes.

RE-ANIMATOR*: Now this is high concept. "Re-Animator" is completely unhinged. Jeffrey Combs has a career-making role as mad-scientist Herbert West. If you like the idea of a corpse carrying his severed head that still tries to gasp nervous system commands, this movie is for you. Very bloody and fearlessly executed, Re-Animator is the all-time horror/comedy classic.

THE SHINING*: When I saw this movie in the theater as a kid, I thought, "What a waste of time." But this film gets scarier every time I see it. I think you have to be an adult with wife and kids to understand how this forced proximity in the very wrong place at the very wrong time could drive a person insane. Kubrick's genius here is in choosing the setting. The hotel is enormous, yes, but ultimately and inescapably confining. And it's luxury is juxtaposed nicely with the increasingly dilapidated state of Nicholson's soul.

NEAR DARK*: Totally reinvents the vampire genre. The early scene in the bar is arguably the greatest horror set piece of all time. Bill Paxton is great as the totally irredeemable bloodsucker. But it's the reluctant vampires that give this movie its real bite. The heroes (if we can call them that) are much more dimensional than the those typically found in horror movies.

THE THING (remake)*: I'm giving it the asterisk, finally. This movie is always on my list. One of the real underrated modern (well, sort of modern) classics. Kurt Russell is great as the reluctant hero. The paranoia really works for me, especially in that hellish setting. The special effects were ground breaking at the time and still work. The ensemble cast is very convincing. This movie pulls me in every time. I especially dig the unconventional ending.

NIGHTMARE ON ELM STREET*: I admit it. This movie scared the crap out of me the first time I saw it. Now, Freddy Krueger is a cartoon character and it's hard to take the horror persona seriously. But the idea of an indestructable madman who could kill you in your dreams was really groundbreaking at the time. Having to remain awake in order to survive is a great horror concept because it's a hopeless task, which really spices up the sense of doom that pervades this flick.

SHAUN OF THE DEAD: Will this movie be here next year? I think so. This isn't a parody of Dawn of the Dead as much as it's a loving embrace. Sure, there's social commentary here, too, as the zombies are barely distinguishable from the humans. But there are great horror set pieces, and some thrills and laughs along the way. Don't think "Spinal Tap" here. This movie is more akin to "American Werewolf in London." Plus, the Eddie George zombies are back. And, let's face it, we want realism in our undead. How can dead guys be so fast? (Note: If you want a Spinal Tap version of the "Dead" pictures, check out "Return of the Living Dead," which asks the metaphysical question: "How can you kill something that's already dead?")

HELLRAISER: Took a great concept, ran with it and didn't look back. The film goes right for the throat with great special effects and a really creepy total lack of morality among the principals. This is one film where the human lead is more monstrous than the monster. The film does drag a little after the first 45 minutes or so before closing strong. It's on this list for its inventiveness and unflinching look at human depravity.

CREEPSHOW: This was Tales of the Crypt before HBO took over. Romero directs Stephen King's stories with creat comic book flair. The little mini-morality plays all work (with the exception of the one starring King as an uncivilized farmer). This movie isn't always on my list, but I'm feeling generous today. Check out Ted Danson before Cheers as a vengeful lover (is there any other kind). Of the five stories, two are great (The Crate and Father's Day), the Danson one is good and the final story staring E.G. Marshall is a really solid set piece with a grand finale of sorts.

MIMIC: Speaking of bugs, this movie is not for the squeamish. You have the science-gone-mad plot. There are great set pieces in the subway. You have a strong female lead played by Mira Sorvino. And you get the rag-tag band of heroes against impossible odds in the form of an an ever-growing army of monsters.

AMERICAN WEREWOLF IN LONDON: Landis gets credit for taking a dead genre, the werewolf movie, and reshaping it in a very classical way but from a modern perspective. By "modern," I'm not just talking special effects, which are quite good, but the way the characters react to each other and to the situation. There's a somewhat detached cynicism here that really works because the structure of the story is so rooted in horror convention. Also a plus are the great music and an effective use of humor that's sprinkled evenly among the thrills.

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The Little Engine That Couldn't

First of all, thanks to Jonah Keri of the great Baseball Prospectus
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for starting an impromptu Breakfast Table heavy on the World Series but with a fair share of football, too. That table is posted here.
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Yes, one day I'll learn to do these links better.

Well I went and shined the spotlight on YPA this week and look what happened. Somewhere, Chris Liss at RotoWire is laughing.

Actually, he says you can't system bet NFL games. By that, I think he means to say, "You can't bet NFL games." He also says that YPA's impact on a game is a big "duh" and that we might as well say whoever scores the most points is going to win. But I spit rasberries at that argument until I hear YPA mentioned as the key to winning even one time by a network TV announcer. Furthermore, this isn't like saying the team with the most yards wins because there are many times when the team with the better YPA has less passing yards than the opposition.

So where did we go wrong? I say we because I didn't necessarily lose these bets. YPA did. (You like that? The first rule of being a tout is to torture logic and reason so that your wrong plays are actually still right plays; but never, of course, vice versa.)

Perhaps I should look only a team's YPA differential (see below blog postings for a definition) only for ranking purposes. The matchup should be decided by how teams rank against their opponent that week. This makes sense. Why didn't I think of it before? I was looking for a simple, one-step approach to everything -- rankings, predictions, etc. And, in truth, it doesn't change things much at all.

For example, in the Lions vs. Giants, you had a team in the low 20s in YPA on both sides of the ball (Lions) going up against a team in the top 10 on both sides (Giants). The Giants were also the home team. How can you argue against predicting a passing-game, YPA rout in the Giants favor. Of course, the Lions out YPA'ed the Giants 8.2 to 6.4 and the rest is history.

Note that just because the picks lost doesn't mean that YPA wasn't the determinative factor in these games. The teams that won the battle of YPA yesterday were 10-3 straight up (that's a bad week for YPA, which usually predicts a winner 80 percent of the time). Against the spread, YPA winners were 8-4-1. (This seems too good to be true, checking last week.... 11-3 against the spread last week, too. Wow.) I'm confident that our challenge is merely to identify the team that is going to win the YPA battle.

The Jets predictably lost yesterday. You can't keep the passing offense in mothballs all year and then just pull it out when you need it. I thought it was downright miraculous that they only gave up one TD to Brady and Co. The Jets secondary is poor and they rely on their pass rush to bail them out. The problem is that teams can always keep your pass rush at bay if they just devote the proper manpower to stopping it. So, sooner or later, your corners get exposed. To see the value of a real shut-down corner, look no further than Denver, which is now a YPA defensive leader solely on the strength of CB Champ Bailey, who cuts the field in half for the defense. And Denver is doing this despite losing their best pass rusher, Trevor Pryce.

I'll do more about football after I write my "By The Numbers" column (why I call it that is anyone's guess as my clients don't call it anything, as far as I can tell). As for the Series, I'm not getting excited about the history-in-the-making in Boston until the Sox win a road game. Remember, this is a team that won the first two games in the '86 Series on the road before losing in seven to the Mets.

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YPA Plays

On a dare from good friend Chris Liss, my editor at RotoWire, I'm trying to call my shots when it comes to YPA as a predictive tool.

Like Babe Ruth in the 1932 World Series, I'm pointing to the centerfield bleachers. I see six games this week where the Vegas line is six points or more out of whack with what YPA says. These games amount to YPA Best Bets. I won't tell you how much out of whack each line is because the results are startling and because I'm still tweaking with the system of converting into points relative YPA differential.

(This differential is the degree to which each team passes relative to how it defends the pass; not how its opponent defends the pass. This differential is then compared to the differntial achieved thus far by the opposition. The objective is to predict not just whether but by how much teams will outperform, or underperform, their weekly opponent in passing efficiency.)

The Week 7 YPA Plays are:

Bills (+6)
Giants (-6.5)
Vikings (-7)
Falcons (+4)
Cowboys (+3)
Broncos (-6)

YPA says the above teams cover EASILY. Of course, I'll take any win any way. Assessment (or post mortem) to follow soon.

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David Salfino's Power Rankings (Week 7)

(SCROLL DOWN FOR THIS WEEK'S YPA POWER RANKINGS)

1. New England Patriots (5-0)
No-frills Pats celebrate record win with team dinner at Foxboro Sizzler.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (5-0)
One more lopsided win and they're No.1 with a bullet.

3. Indianapolis Colts (4-1)
Improving defense must continue to get job done.

4. Minnesota Vikings (4-1)
Culpepper on pace for 57 TD passes.

5. New York Jets (5-0)
First five opponents have six wins combined.

6. Denver Broncos (5-1)
Reuben Droughns looking like new Mike Anderson.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1)
Late Cowboys turnover hands Big Ben fourth in row.

8. St. Louis Rams (4-2)
Still standing after beating from Bucs.

9. New York Giants (4-1)
Preparing to feast on Lions at Meadowlands.

10. Atlanta Falcons (5-1)
Up-and-down Vick, Falcs nip Chargers at home.

11. Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
Underachieving offense stalls five times in red zone.

12. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)
Cardiac Cats back from the dead.

13. Baltimore Ravens (3-2)
Lewis suspension leaves offense with zero threats at skill positions.

14. Houston Texans (3-3)
Take care of business by beating Titans on road.

15. San Diego Chargers (3-3)
Smart thing to do is to put Brees trade talks on hold.

16. Detroit Lions (3-2)
Kevin Jones yet to live up to first-round billing.

17. Cleveland Browns (3-3)
T.O. set to see Garcia for first time since bad breakup.

18. Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
To help rid bad karma, Parcells ships Bryant to Cleveland.

19. Tennessee Titans (2-4)
Join short list of last year’s contenders on wane.

20. Green Bay Packers (2-4)
Make-or-break game versus Cowboys.

21. Kansas City Chiefs (1-4)
Defense still bringing tears to Vermeil’s eyes.

22. Carolina Panthers (1-4)
A shell of its former self.

23. New Orleans Saints (2-4)
Haslett's days may be numbered.

24. Washington Redskins (2-4)
Notch unimpressive victory over hapless Bears.

25. Oakland Raiders (2-4)
Highly touted D-line steamrolled in rain.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5)
Michael Clayton latest contender for offensive rookie of year.

27. Chicago Bears (1-4)
Jonathan Quinn clearly not the answer.

28. Buffalo Bills (1-4)
It took a while, but running back controversy begins in Buffalo.

29. Cincinnati Bengals (1-4)
D makes Jeff Garcia look like, well, Jeff Garcia.

30. San Francisco 49ers (1-5)
Let Jets off ropes, then knocked out in fourth quarter.

31. Arizona Cardinals (1-4)
Hope to get on track versus reeling Seahawks.

32. Miami Dolphins (0-6)
Seriously, QBs have thrown as many TD passes to other team as their own.

--David Salfino

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YPA Power Rankings

Dave's very pithy and interesting Power Rankings will follow later today. In the meantime, here's how yards per passing attempt (YPA) differential -- the spread between offensive and defensive proficiency -- ranks the teams heading into Week 7. YPA was pioneered by stat guru Bud Goode, who determined in the mid-1970s that it was by far the most important stat in predicting who wins and who loses each week.
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1. Texans +2.3
2. Eagles +2.2
3. Vikings +1.9
4. Broncos +1.2
5. Steelers +1.1
6. Patrots +1.1
7. Colts +1
8. Rams +1
9. Seahawks +.8
10. Giants +.7
11. Bucs +.7
12. Falcons +.6
13. Bills +.6
14. Cowboys +.4
15. Chargers +.1
16. Jets 0
17. Dolphins 0
18. Ravens -.2
19. Browns -2
20. Panthers -.3
21. Bears -.3
22. Cardinals -.3
23. Redskins -.4
24. Jaguars -.5
25. Packers -.6
26. Niners -.8
27. Chiefs -1.1
28. Lions -1.2
29. Titans -1.4
30. Raiders -1.8
31. Saints -2
32. Bengals -2.6

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Does YPA Really Work?

This all started as a joke, really. But 30-10-1 with the formula heading into tonight's game is starting to make a believer out of me. (And Dave, who is using $100 bills now to blow his schnoz after the beating he's given his bookies the last two weeks. Of course, I kid, Mr. Government. We really mean "units" here, not dollars.)

Who did we lose with this week? The Seahawks (who managed to lose the battle of YPA only after a last minute bomb by Tom Brady) and the Bengals (who are lost in the wilderness with blind man Carson Palmer). Tonight's pick, the Bucs, was also shakey, as we are again weighting defensive prowess over offensive prowess because of their relative degrees. I don't like hitching my dreams to Brian Griese's wagon. Of course, if I win, I knew it all along.

Honestly, I don't think YPA is nearly this good an indicator. However, I do believe that with the proper statistical metrics, one could use YPA as a foundation for predicting games with 60 percent accuracy, which is pretty damn good. Our method is (too?) simple, looking at the differential of each team and assigning a strength to it relative to the spread. But it's as much art as science at the moment and that makes me uncomfortable.

My initial take is that the Jets are in for a long day in New England come Sunday. This offense just doesn't have enough dimension to it with the lack of a real, WR-driven downfield passing game. I think the Pats will smother the Jets underneath game and dare Pennington to beat them downfield. I don't like the idea of a team learning new tricks after five games. The Jets still are weak at the corners, and put a lot of pressure on them with all the blitzing. I see New England winning by at least a TD.

Is Daunte Culpepper friggin' unbelievable or what? Three five-TD games already. On pace for 57 TD passes. Talk about fantasy numbers. The Vikings seem like they're playing Madden. I'm waiting for defenses to just walk off the field, protesting loudly, "This game cheats!"

Mike Shanahan can go to hell. Why not bring back Terrell Davis and Otis Armstrong and Floyd Little back and see if they can rumble for 175 yards, too? He just likes making monkeys out of anyone who takes fantasy football seriously, I'm convinced. You're not playing against us, Mike. You're playing against whoever you're playing against that week. Work with us. We're not the enemy. Let's give peace a chance, okay?

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David Salfino's Power Rankings

1. New England Patriots (4-0)
Nineteen in a row and counting.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)
League's newest triplets: McNabb, T.O. and Westbrook.

3. Indianapolis Colts (4-1)
Offense impressive, natch, defense improving.

4. Minnesota Vikings (3-1)
After shootout, last team standing in Houston.

5. New York Jets (4-0)
In cahoots with NFL schedule-maker.

6. Denver Broncos (4-1)
Just enough O, D getting it done.

7. Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
Maybe they shouldn't have taken the week off.

8. New York Giants (4-1)
Coughlin has Big Blue ship-shape.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1)
Roethlisberger to Burress restores Steelers vertical threat.

10. St. Louis Rams (3-2)
Martz's Elmo Wright imitation a real hoot.

11. Atlanta Falcons (4-1)
Will the real Atlanta Falcons please stand up.

12. Baltimore Ravens (2-2)
Lewis suspension dark cloud on Baltimore horizon.

13. Detroit Lions (3-1)
Mooch has Lions living up to hype.

14. San Diego Chargers (3-2)
Can notorious fast starters keep it going?

15. Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Kinder, gentler Parcells starting to be real concern.

16. Tennessee Titans (2-3)
O-line opening huge holes for Chris Brown.

17. Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)
Hope to keep it going after bye week.

18. Carolina Panthers (1-3)
Hits keep coming: DeShaun Foster, Kris Jenkins are latest casualties.

19. Green Bay Packers (1-4)
Lambeau myth officially dispelled.

20. Houston Texans (2-3)
Airshow impressive, but where's the defense?

21. Oakland Raiders (2-3)
Apparently, Kerry Collins not the league's best backup after all.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)
2-0 start quickly becoming ancient history.

23. New Orleans Saints (2-3)
Inconsistency only constant in Bayou Country.

24. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)
Palmer poised to rebound after week off.

25. Cleveland Browns (2-3)
Not much to recommend Brownies.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)
Chucky carves out first win in New Orleans.

27. Chicago Bears (1-3)
Need Jonathan Quinn to step up.

28. Washington Redskins (1-4)
Who's next Redskins coach, Knute Rockne?

29. Buffalo Bills (0-4)
Underachieving offense really starting to piss defense off.

30. Arizona Cardinals (1-4)
Denny's Boys blow big lead and chance for two in a row.

31. San Francisco 49ers (1-4)
Finally healthy, Rattay finding his rhythm.

32. Miami Dolphins (0-4)
Let's get it together, fellas, Ricky's not coming home.

--David Salfino

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Talking RB Blues

First of all, I'd like to thank Rutherford, New Jersey for not honoring Columbus Day and holding school today so that I may have the peace that makes this column possible.

The running backs are driving everyone crazy this year.

Disappointment abounds at the top of every league's draftboard. McAllister has been hurt. Clinton Portis has struggled in the red zone and really hasn't done much at all since his first carry of 2004. Ahman Green is averaging one yard less per carry than in '03 and hasn't been the scoring machine he was in last year, either. Jamal Lewis is gone now for three weeks if you include the bye. Kevan Barlow (I'm sorry for that tout, really) has been in a funk all year and has had more MRIs than TDs. (Thanks again, Dave, for that comparison). Fred Taylor is far below last year's rushing pace and, of course, still can't score. Stephen Davis was the one 30-year-old RB you should have avoided. Lee Suggs was hurt worse than we all thought and really isn't any better than William Green. Rudy Johnson is getting his yards but struggling near the goal line, as was the case last year. Circumstances keep intervening in Minnesota and Denver, preventing any back from taking charge of those plum jobs. Brian Westbrook is a bust if you're in a TD league, as Terrell Owens is killing him. Duce Staley has been the bomb between the 20s but then St. Jerome ghouls all the TDs. Kevin Jones showed only brief flashes before suffering his high ankle sprain. Marshall Faulk keeps walking around like Bruce Willis in "The Sixth Sense," refusing to acknowledge that he's dead and make way for stud-in-waiting Steven Jackson. Julius Jones' season ended before it began, forcing us to submit to heavier douses of Eddie George. Is Travis Henry ever going to score another TD, especially with Willis McGahee now getting a taste? Corey Dillon can't score, either, but anyone who's been paying attention for the last three year knew that. Dominick Davis made those concerns about his durability look prescient. Everything clicked for Justin Fargas backers: Wheatley stunk and then got hurt; but Fargas can't get over his turf toe (an injury that's undoubtedly painful but hard to take seriously when guys like Travis Henry play with broken legs).

Who's happy? The guys who stole the first or second pick and took Tomlinson and Holmes. There was no skill involved there.

Chris Brown owners, but Brown was a major late riser in most leagues and probably required a top-20 pick. Plus, Brown is struggling in the red zone and in short yardage heading into tonight's game.

Edgerrin James owners, of course. But I'm not apologizing for that tout because A) James still lacks explosion and struggles inside the 10, with four TDs in 17 attempts (a absolutely RIDICULOUSLY high number), B) that tout was based on the reasonable assumption that the Colts would go two TEs now that former first-round pick Dallas Clark is healthy (yes, I know that James is averaging more yards with two TEs than in any other formation), and, mainly, C) I'm a stubborn bastard. Okay, okay, I had faulty intelligence on James. But don't blame me. Blame the CIA. Seriously, we're learning as we go with these new metrics, trying to determine what constitutes a reasonable sample size.

Tiki Barber owners need to stop reading right now and give themselves a hand. By eliminating his fumbling problems, he's become a top 10 running back. Who knew the Giants would click like this offensively?

Curtis Martin owners, who aren't quite so happy now that Buffalo stopped the Jets running game cold with just seven defenders and the safeties deep behind them. I spoke to Martin after the Jets game and tried to gain some insight into what's allowed him to sustain this level of productivity 10 years into his career. His answer? "Perserverance, mental toughness and prayer." Now how the hell am I supposed to measure that? Where do I get those prayer stats?

Thomas Jones owners, but your party is about to come to an end unless Jonathan Quinn is a real NFL QB, which looks to be about about 10-to-1 against right now.

Warrick Dunn owners, but Dunn seems to be vanishing right before our eyes due to fatigue and/or nagging injuries. Remember, he had only 530 carries the three prior years combined.

I do think that there are opportunities to pick guys off at the position. Mewelde Moore just helped me win a game in my tout league. Aaaron Steckler rewarded owners when McAllister was out. Artose Pinner had a good game yesterday for Detroit. Jonathan Wells stepped capably for D. Davis. And then we have Reuben Droughns, the former undersized fullback (much like Mike Anderson) who absolutely ran wild yesterday. The ability to find running backs in-season is something that I think is always underrated, especially in the tout community. It argues for passing on some of our reaches and taking WRs like Andre Johnson, who we all knew was primed for takeoff.

I managed to catch the bulk of the action yesterday from the press box. I was happy to see my YPA stat worked again in picking games, as the teams with the stronger passing games heading into Sunday's game (measured this way) were 8-5 against the spread. (Yeah, the Bills weren't better than the Jets, but close enough that you had to take the seven points.) And that's 8-5 with heart-brekaing losses with the Texans (who were getting four in OT) and Cardinals (who gave up the late score AND two-point conversion AND lost in OT).

My Week 5 quick takes:

--Marvin Harrison owners can't be happy with Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokely, but that's not going to suddenly change.

--Torry Holt owners like myself should have known better than to trust Mike Martz and tabbed sure-No. 1 Terrell Owens. (Who I ranked higher in the magazine; if I won't listen to me why should anyone else?)

--I know the Bucs are still a kick-ass pass defense, but you can't trust Aaron Brooks or any Saint receiver, especially Dante Stallworth.

--Eric Johnson and Antonio Gates, both top 10 now in targets, need to be started even in non-TE leagues every week. (Are you listening Mr. Salfino?)

--Ben Roethlisberger is the rare rookie QB who looks nothing like a rookie.

--Daunte Culpepper is ridiculously good now that he's found the long ball that he always had in him.

--David Carr is worthy of starting in most leagues and if he keeps is YPA above 8 (it's now above 9), he's a lock to finish top 10 in TD passes (especially with that defense) and likely well higher.

--Marc Bulger and the Rams really proved something in bouncing back off the deck against a very formidable Seahawk secondary. Bulger's YPA alone makes him worthy of a big upgrade.

--Joe Gibbs is off to a start in his second career that's eerily similar to his that of his first, when he began 0-5 before following that up with a 30-6 run that included a Super Bowl victory. But I'm tired of carrying Gibbs' water and refuse to predict anything similar going forward.

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Bruuuuce!! (Not Isaac)

The plan since the big announcement on Monday was to get Springsteen tickets when they went on sale at 10 a.m. this morning (Wednesday). One show next week in the Swamps of Jersey (East Rutherford, as our Rutherford is NOT a Swamp). John Fogerty on the bill. I don't care if I've seen Bruce 20-something times. It's worth whatever it costs to see him and Fogerty rocking through "Fortunate Son," right?

But you can tell I'm getting old because there I am at 9:50 a.m. at my dining room table eating a bagel and eggs when I see a picture of Jimmy Buffet in the celebrity section and say to myself, "Hmm. Jimmy Buffet. Musician (sort of). Why are those bells ringing? Oh, Bruce.... Holy crap!"

Now, the plan was to use our dual office and cable modem and upgraded PCs and network for something good finally, like getting tickets through Ticketmaster. So, I load the browsers and keep refreshing at one computer while Cath does the same at the other. (I made the executive decision and took her off her less important task, namely, working.)

By 10:01, Cath's hit paydirt. We wait for our request to be processed. And wait. And.... Wait. Disconnected. I do the same at my station, only with five browsers simultaneously. I get to the last step on all of them after a few tries, but can't close the deal with the actual tickets. They all crash in sequence. But Cath strikes gold again. The server says she'll get her tickets in 15 minutes, which soon gets cut in half. By 10:14, we're all set to go. Good seats right? How's 23rd row of the upper deck sound? Now, I know I'll likely be able to get better seats a few days before the show when they drop the good tickets they held back this morning (they always sell the rotten seats before releasing the good ones). Maybe I'll ask someone at the Meadowlands or with the Jets to help me out on Sunday. Yes, I have no shame or pride, either, if you insist on getting nasty about it. I actually knows someone who is married to Bruce's tour manager (or whatever), but does that help me in any way? No. When are people going to realize that they're supposed to know people who know people so that those people can help me?

You're here for football? Sorry, you're sh*t out of luck today. Okay, okay. The teams with the better YPA heading into Sunday's action were 11-2-1 against the spread. Dave and I are going to put that stat to the test with our Forecast this week, I can promise you.

Glad to see Ricky Williams wants to come back. He misses football. Or maybe the $8.6 million (talk about your buzz kills).

As is the case with all Jamal Lewis owners, I'm trying to devise a sound, rational argument as to why an NFL suspension, let alone the rumored four-gamer, is grossly unfair. I'm struggling with it. For the sake of fantasy players nationwide, Lewis should have taken his chances with a jury. What's 10 years of your life compared to our collective fantasy fortunes? Really, Jamal, didn't we all show faith in you? It was the least you could have done, bro'.

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Until the End of Time

What a brutal week of fantasy and of football.

The games all needed a heavy dose of the Viagra that's constantly promoted during every commercial break in every market. I assume this advertising is working and there are a lot of middle-aged, overweight and balding men eager and able. I predict that by next year we'll be seeing the Lifetime Network promoting mace so wives can keep these steroid Romeos at bay.

There was no witching hour this week, that usually glorious period between 3 and 4 p.m. when you tune to all the fantastic finishes. I'm sorry, Jags vs. Colts didn't qualify. Green Bay trying to mount a fourth-quarter rally without Favre? If felt like August. Or 1991 (take your pick). What about Favre running on to the field to throw that fourth-down pass? He's like the shark in "Jaws," either very smart or very dumb.

The running backs were also on the Way Back Machine this week. Curtis Martin and Emmitt Smith leading the charge? No one was playing Emmitt, of course. What can you say about Martin. The odds are against every 30-year-old running back from any point going forward. But I've been humbled by him already this year. Maybe the odds are 55 percent against vs. the 70 percent or more I would have surmised in August (or in my Buy/Sell/Hold a couple weeks back). Would I still "sell" him? Yes, definitely. But the price is going up. (Hey, I might be dumb, but I'm not stupid.)

You also had Drew Brees and Billy Volek leading the QB charge and Reche Caldwell and David Patten atop the WR board. Tiki Barber has been a revelation all year, but he's got some miles and still isn't trusted near the goal line. Amos Zereoue? Well, I liked him last year. Now I'm reading "The Physics of Football" and will be forever down on any running back below 220 pounds (as well as short-legged kickers).

Justin McCareins? Justin Tumberlake looks like he's going to score more TDs this year. I feel like I'm in a Woody Allen movie regarding JM. "You mean, my whole fallacy was wrong?" Uh, yep. Hey, Santana Moss sucks, too and Pennington seems to complete about five passes to WRs each week. Am I griping, somewhat desperately? Of course.

I don't regret the Eric Moulds "sell." Why start a WR on a team that scores one TD per game? And Bledsoe just stinks. As Pianowski said to me backstage: "His brain is on tape delay and every team that plays him looks like they have a pass rush like the '75 Steelers."

I want to see Jay Fielder's diploma for proof that he actually attended an Ivy League school. Have you ever seen a guy make as many head-scratching decisions as he does at the worst possible time? A lateral to your guard to avoid a two-yard sack in the final two minutes? It was second and five, bro'. Just relax. But on behalf of all Jets fans, thanks for the gift win. We'll send you something for Chanukah.

There are a lot of guys I could go "sell" on this week. It's going to be tough to narrow them down. I'm going to have to try hard not to be rash. The "buys" are going to be a challege though.

I sort of like Leonard Henry. It's the contrarian in me. The Dolphins can't be this bad, can they? Won't the defense keep them in games and give Henry 20 carries? He's worth the reach, that's all I'm saying.

I'm not going to gloat on Kerry Collins. Yet. Let's just say that no Giants watcher was suprised by yesterday's meltdown. Your ability to throw dowfield is necessarily to your ability to threaten the defense underneath and horizontally, too. We don't need the physics book for that.

Oh, and I promise not to pick against the Patriots again until either the sun burns out or they lose a football game, whichever comes first.

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