May 2-9 Start and Sit

David Ferris and I do this for the Birmingham News:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Jeremy Bonderman, P, Tigers. "But the 22-year-old's two starts this week are against the hot hitting Red Sox and Angels," you say. Matchups don't matter for 2005's pitching breakthrough story.

Luis Matos, OF, Orioles. His walk-to-strikeout ratio tells you his average is for real. So is the speed. The red-hot Matos is capable of double-digit homers, too, and gets to feast this week at home against the Blue Jays and Royals.

Bench 'em
Chan Ho Park, P, Rangers. He's not for real. He followed up his hot opener with nine walks in 11 innings and has a lone start this week against the A's, who reached base 12 times against Park in four innings earlier in '05.

Mark Bellhorn, 2B, Red Sox. The clock seems to have struck midnight for last year's Cinderella, who hasn't demonstrated any power while maintaining a 200-strikeout pace.


NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Andy Pettitte, P, Astros. He's yet to allow more than three runs in any start, and this week Pettitte gets to work against two particularly struggling offenses (Pirates, Braves).

Mark Grudzielanek, 2B, Cardinals. He gets a bad rap from the statheads now and again, but any career .287 hitter that's working in front of Albert Pujols is going to score a lot of runs – and see a bunch of fastballs. Grudz gets a full seven games against two weak staffs (Cincinnati, San Francisco).

Bench 'em
Aaron Miles, 2B, Rockies. Miles loses 119 batting points and 251 OPS points when he leaves Colorado this year and he travels this week to two yards that blunt offense (Petco Park, Dolphins Stadium).

Tom Glavine, SP, Mets. Okay, he's pitching twice and his strikeout rate is up, but other Glavine stats are ugly (.308 batting average against; 16 walks in 27 innings).

END

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Draft Day Notebook

I was fortunate enough to spend some time again with Paul Zimmerman at the Javits Center today. He recommended two more wines under $20: Caymus Conundrum (which sounds like an ancient riddle) and Cline's Mourvedre or Petite Sirah.

We discussed my stat index at length. Z's not a big fan of Bud Goode or yards per passing attempt (YPA), as he feels it rewards QBs who dink and dunk in garbage time. How much garbage time is there really nowadays? That's a question neither of us could answer. Even Z can't decide what the cutoff is. He suggested three scores in the fourth quarter, but then you have games like the Miracle at the Meadowlands (the Monday night win by the Jets when they were down 30-7 in the fourth quarter). I said, "Isn't 98 percent likelihood that it's garbage time good enough? Then you can just use your three score rule and back out any stats compiled afterwards." "No," I'm told. "If, it's not perfect, it keeps me up nights."

Stats Z is big on:

--Team passer rating (but, he insists, you have to factor in yards per completions somewhere in there because the system only rewards yards per attempt; and he wants sack yardage subtracted, too, though he paused when I asked if the number of minus plays was more important than total yards lost)

--QB rushing. Z later said that accuracy is, by far, the most important QB attribute. But he says that QB rushing has a psychological impact on a defense because they had a play stopped only to see that "freak thing" happen. (Personally, I'm more comfortable when the QB is running than when he's throwing; unless he's Michael Vick, which says all you need to say about Vick.)

--Punting stats that focus on the percentage of total punts returned (after touchbacks are subtracted from the punt total).

Brian Baldinger stopped buy for a long chat and was very impressive. He's turned his basement into a War Room, we're told, with the help of a steady stream of coach tapes courtesy of NFL Films.

"Do you want to go from the booth to the front office like Matt Millen?"

"Yeah. But I want to turn things around in two years, not five."

"The money is the problem," Z laments, meaning that money is too big a factor in personnel decisions.

Baldinger says that the biggest joke he sees week in and out is tight end blocking, saving most of his venom for L.J. Smith. "The Eagles better get a real tight end because watching that Super Bowl made me sick. Willie McGinnest and Mike Vrabel were tossing L.J. Smith into his own center like he was a rag doll," Baldinger said.

I ask him about Shockey, who he says is a receiver who isn't used correctly by the Giants. Z notes the game last year at Arizona. "(Cardinals defensive coordinator Clancy) Pendergast had the Giants screwed up all day," Z says as Baldinger nods approvingly, knowing what's coming. "They'd max protect and Arizona would drop everyone back into coverage so Tiki Barber and Shockey were stuck doing nothing useful."

That turns the conversation to coaching. Baldinger did five Redskins games, he says, and was unimpressed with Joe Gibbs. "I wanted to see the halo over his head, really. But there was no fire there."

"His heart's not in it," Z says. "I talked to him when he got the job and said,'Do you really want to get involved in a situation where you have the owner and GM undercutting you?' 'That's not going to happen,' he said. But now he's a little vulnerable and look who's calling the shots. Santana Moss for Coles? Are you kidding?"

"Moss can't get out of the whirlpool," Baldinger adds.

"And he's holding out for a new contract. Couldn't you have found that out BEFORE you traded for him?"

Continuing with coaches, Z says that he always knocked Charlie Weis but called him up last year and told him what a good job he was doing. "He really is a genius."

Baldinger says that other teams should build like New England. "They can't," Z says. "Why not?" Baldinger persists. "Because what you have there is a perfect, egoless symbiosis between GM and coach."

Z adds, "Has anyone ever gone into a game against the Pats and said, 'We have to stop Tom Brady.' Why not?"

Baldinger wants to know if Z thinks Brady is the best cold weather QB ever. "What about Favre?" I ask. "Or Fran Tarkenton, who only had trouble in the Super Bowl when the weather was better."

Z summons us all close as if he's going to share a secret. "There have been three QBs in my lifetime that I would swear, if I didn't know better, were throwing games: Joe Namath, Ken Stabler and Brett Favre. Favre makes passes so bad sometimes that it seems like he's trying to. Then he walks off the field laughing. His lineman aren't laughing."

Turning to the draft, Z asks. "Can you guess who my favorite player is in this class?"

Baldinger throws out a lot of wide receivers to no avail.

"(USC Inside Linebacker Lofa) Tatupu. He's never going to be a star but he's going to hang around for 10 years like his father and help you."

Z asks Baldinger who he dislikes.

"Mike Williams. I just don't see him as a future star. When I watched the USC tapes, Keary Colbert stood out more. Colbert blocked."

"Is Williams the new J.J. Stokes?" I ask.

They both nod at the possibility.

Z can't get the coaching out of his mind. "That San Diego-Jets game still bugs me. Best example ever of a coach totally misreading his team and the flow of the game. The Jets were dead! And then I write a long article and guess what other coaches would act similarly, failing to mention Herm Edwards becasue I figure he just lived through it. And look what happens...."

In light of their draft, it's safe to say that the Jets think the real problem in that game was the kicker.

"The whole playoffs were a coaching disaster," Baldinger says. He adds that he hears that the Eagles are going to have a press conference and finally come clean about what happened in those last five minutes of the Super Bowl." Neither me nor Z can figure out if he's kidding.

Z thinks the coaches are needlessly exhausting themselves by working around the clock and not being alert when it's most needed, on game day.

Baldinger says, "If they're working so hard, why aren't they coaching better? Why aren't people doing a better job drafting players. It's like it always was: 10 guys in the first round of every draft will be stars, 10 will be okay and 10 will be busts. Why doesn't that success ratio ever improve?"

I ask when this whole working around the clock thing started. Did Tom Landry used to do this? "Landry used to go home during the week in time to eat dinner with his family," we're told by Z. "I guess this all started with Dick Vermeil when he was with Philly," Baldinger adds.

Baldinger is set to leave and we notice how fit he is. "You must be down to 215," Z says. "255," Baldinger says. "I had to get my weight down to help my knees." I notice his Chuck Bednarik fingers, all twisted at odd angles after numerous dislocations in the trenches.

After the legendary Bert Sugar comes by to say hello, sporting his trademark fedora and (unlit) cigar, the talk turns to boxing. Z covered Ali in his prime and then at the end. I lament the GOAT's last fight against Larry Holmes.

"I have very bad memories about that night and they aren't just limited to Ali," Z says. "I got to the arena late and was stuck with a really crappy seat. I asked the guy running the event if I could take a folding chair and put it near ringside. He says, 'Sure.' And I proceed. But this hulking security guard balks. So I have to go back and have the boss tell him to let me do it. When I finally get my seat in place, he plants himself right in front of me, blocking my view. When I complain I can't see, he says, 'I was told that I had to let you sit here not that I had to let you see the fight.' I lose it and throw a right at this guy's jaw and his eyes roll back and blood starts flowing from his face and my knuckles. I decide to high tail it out of there. But, like an idiot, I don't just keep walking but decide to stop because people are getting refunds because of some problem with the projection screens. 'So,' I figure, 'Why not make a couple of bucks on the way out?'" Z says, smiling, knowing this is sounding like a bad Jewish joke. "So, while I'm waiting in line, my knuckles deformed and bleeding, a bunch of people come running up, yelling, 'There he is! That's him!' Much legal trouble ensued. The guy ended up getting 32 stitches, which made me look really bad. I thought that was way beyond what was necessary but was told by a friend that emergency room staff who work overnights get paid by the stitch."

After this, the draft was all downhill.

END.

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Weekly League Start/Bench

By Mike Salfino and David Ferris

(For April 25-May 1)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put'em in

Jake Westbrook, P, Indians. He's had a rough start and doesn't strike guys out but gets two home starts this week against the struggling Tigers and Royals. Cleveland's Jacobs Field is a very good pitcher's park.

Kevin Mench, OF, Rangers. Mench finally started hitting when the Rangers finally committed to playing him every day. He gets a week's worth of games at the Ballpark in Arlington, which boosts scoring 25 percent compared to an average park.

Bench'em

Joel Pineiro, P, Mariners. Two starts this week is doubly bad for the struggling right hander, whose declining strikeout rate may indicate that he's not fully recovered from last year's arm troubles. Pineiro must now travel to face Texas and a bevy of dangerous Oakland lefties.

Jon Garland, P, White Sox. The early-season surprise has but 8 Ks after 21 innings, meaning he's been extremely lucky on balls put in play. The bet here is that the luck runs out at Oakland and in his very hitter friendly home park against Detroit.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put'em in

Javier Vazquez, P, Diamondbacks. He turned the corner nicely with his last start at San Francisco, and while the previous turn was messy, it did come with eight strikeouts attached. Vazquez is well-slotted for success this week, working at two pitching-comfy locations (Dodger Stadium, Petco Park).

Juan Encarnacion, OF, Marlins. The notorious streak hitter is on a good run right now, and he gets a hitting-friendly schedule with three-game stops at Colorado and Philadelphia.

Bench'em

Adam Everett, SS, Astros. He's trying real hard to lose the leadoff spot in the order, and now a hamstring strain has reared its ugly head. Even if Everett is on the field this week, don't expect him to be on base or running much.

Al Leiter, SP, Marlins. He's already off to a shaky start this season - the warning signs in last year's peripherals are hard to get past - and this week the aging lefty gets a date in Coors Field. Have Leiter safely on the bench for now, and start looking for better alternatives down the road.

END

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Jets Trade For Jolley

Yes, I gulped audibly when Pianow asked me via e-mail: Jolley for the the No. 1 pick ... thoughts? I had been feeling very comfortable with the Jets front office for the first time in my long, sorry life of Jet Fandom. (I'm not counting the Parcells Regime because that always had a "beat the clock" element to it that, in itself, induced anxiety.)

But Scott was being a little dastardly by making me look up the fact that the Jets also got a No. 2 pick out of the deal (and a couple of sixth rounders for a seventh to boot).

As for Doug Jolley, I've always liked him. He's a notch below the hybrid freak that Bradway had reportedly been scouring college basketball for (he wanted a power forward in the Antonio Gates-mode). But he's a capable receiver with enough speed to beat linebackers and at least force some attention from safeties. I like the fact that he's a former QB, as so many tight ends seem to be. I think this helps at the position because they can think like a QB, find voids in the secondary and make themselves a target in a pinch. Jolley is reportedly not much of a blocker, but catching is more important than blocking (because passing the ball is more important than running it).

I peaked at some of the message boards to see the general reaction and it was typically uninformed. How can you complain about overpaying when you don't know what is even going to be there when the traded pick would have been made? Plus, there's a cost involved in terms of cap resources and you don't want to pay No. 1 dollars to a second-round caliber player. The fact that the Broncos just traded the pick above the Jets slot confirms suspicions that the value is not there at the bottom of the first round.

Now, the second round has always been a minefield for this team. David Loverne, Rick Terry, Alex Van Dyke, Ryan Yarborough, Coleman Rudolph, Kurt Barber, Reggie Rembert... We can go on and on. But Bradway has done okay in the second round, so maybe that sad chapter is close, too.

END

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Redskins Looking QB?

Fuzzy math in Washington?

If I'm reading this right, Danny Boy and the Redskins traded their third round pick this year AND their No. 1 and No. 4 from the 2006 draft in exchange for Denver's first-round pick this year, the 25th overall pick.

That just doesn't add up, does it? Washington's No. 1 pick alone next year is likely more valuable than Denver's this year (the Redskins are far from a healthy playoff bet this fall, and the depth of the 2005 first round isn't considered anything great). Granted, if there's an organization that's working on a different mathematical plane than everyone else, it's the Redskins.

I could see *maybe* doing this sort of deal when it's the day of the draft, the first round is nearly over and you know specifically who it is you're moving up for. But to make this sort of move now, I don't understand it - other than the fact that this franchise always does dumb stuff.

If there's a Washington apologist, let's hear your side. (Mike here apologizing that Washington needs a QB because Patrick Ramsey stinks.)

In an unrelated Capitol Sports Blurb, Frank Robinson is complaining that his Nationals don't get adequate play on ESPN. That's pretty funny. I always felt the less Cristian Guzman and Vinny Castilla the better, but it's not my baby.

--Scott Pianowski

END

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Long awaited Leagues Report

Here are my respective rosters. Both leagues are 10-team, AL-only.

The "expert" league (my home leaguers hate that term) has no real categories but weekly, head-to-head scoring largely based on traditional roto categories. However, offensive players are penalized for striking out and rewarded for walking. Of course, you can lap the field in a particular category and still keep piling up the points and not having any saves or speed won't hurt if you can make up for it by scoring elsewhere. Also, you get points for "holds" and have to have at least five starters and at least two relievers active every week. The Sporting News, Stats Inc., Roto Times and other notables particpate. I've done very well in my two years, getting the points championship as a rookie and losing in championship week in '04 (a close third in overall regular season points).

The home league is traditional 5x5 roto with the wrinkle of net runs instead of plain old runs (meaning runs minus homers). It's also a keeper league with severe keeper limitations and trading rules. I won't bore you with our laborious constitution. There's also a 1,175 innings requirement. I've won this league six times and three of the past four years. But the competition here is very tough (I hadn't won the prior six years, though I finished second place five times).

For the expert league, I'll list the round where I drafted (I picked ninth out of ten, as the order was determined by last year's results). In the home league, I'll list what I paid, but this league has a $100 budget, as that was the entry fee about 15 years ago when we all started.

EXPERT LEAGUE:

C: A.J. Pierzynski (Round 12)
1B: Mike Sweeney (Round 6)
3B: Joe Crede (Round 14)
3B: Mike Cuddyer (Round 9, drafted as a 2B)
2B: Tadahito Iguchi (Round 7)
SS: Derek Jeter (Round 2)
MI: B.J. Upton (Round 17)
OF: Ichiro Suzuki (Round 1)
OF: Vernon Wells (Round 3)
OF: Magglio Ordonez (Round 4)
OF: Torii Hunter (Round 5)
OF: Jaques Jones (Round 11)
UT: Frank Catalonotto (Round 16)
UT: Calvin Pickering (Round 15)
P: Jeremy Bonderman (Round 8)
P: Freddy Garcia (Round 10)
P: John Lackey (Round 13)
P: Joe Blanton (Round 18)
P: Juan Rincon (Round 19)
P: Brandon Donnelly (Round 20)
P: Felix Hernandez (Round 21)
P: Jason Johnson (Round 22)
P: Kiko Calero (Round 23)
R: David Newhan
R: Brandon McCarthy
R: Tony Graffanino
R: Dan Johnson
R: Kyle Farnsworth
R: Casey Fossum

Verdict: I think this is a really strong team. The offensive players, while not spectacular, are mostly guaranteed jobs and will likely produce near projected levels. It's important to obtain veterans who will not lose their job when the extended slump inevitably strikes. I think Jaques Jones was the steal of the draft (and I don't even like Jones, but he's the epitome of the veteran with some category upside who will not lose a job). The pitching is a major question mark, but Lackey is underrated (despite the poor start) and Bonderman could be this year's Johan Santana. Blaton will be a Radke-like innings eater who doesn't walk many, but will it be this year or down the road? Garcia was another late-round steal. The man gets no respect, even considering his tough home park. The relievers are all likely to be solid (holds are .5 compared to 1.0 for saves, but the middle relievers typically get 10-20 percent more innings, so that's where the value is; plus, you don't even need to win the game to get a hold). Felix Hernandez is a long shot that could pay huge 2005 dividends if opportunity strikes (I hate the Mariners' staff). I'd be shocked if this team didn't contend for the title.

Home League:

C: Joe Mauer ($3 out of $100 as a keeper)
C: Pierzynski ($5 out of $100)
1B: Mark Teixeira ($13)
3B: Alex Rodriguez ($15.50, I previously had A-Rod in his one disappointing year)
1B: Darin Erstad ($5; remember runs MINUS homers)
2B: Pokey Reese ($.50; this was Ian Kinsler, for NEXT year, but the league mistakenly ruled that he didn't qualify at second even though our rules say minor leaguers qualify where they are projected to play in the majors)
SS: Julio Lugo ($6.50; he'll steal 40 bags)
SS: Angel Berroa ($3.50)
OF: Kevin Mench ($.50 as a keeper but still not a Buck favorite, apparently)
OF: Trot Nixon ($4 as a keeper)
OF: Mark Kotsay ($6.50, the new Steve Finley; he'll pop 20-to-25 homers)
OF: Jay Gibbons ($4)
OF: Luis Matos ($1.50, a great post-hype buy)
UT: Travis Lee (.50)
P: Bonderman ($8)
P: Keith Foulke ($7.50, no one spent on closers and all that money went to strikeouts)
P: Lackey ($4.50, what can I say? His '04 DIPS were great.)
P: Cliff Lee ($4)
P: David Bush ($2, a steal)
P: Blanton ($3)
P: Jeff Niemann ($.50 in hopes he'll be a strikeout guy with upside in '06)
P: Brandon League ($.50 sight unseen in hopes he'll be a closer in '06)
P: J.D. Durbin ($.50, why do I still believe? Maybe the 100 MPH heat in the Arizona Fall League; but this was a reach in retrospect)
R: Casey Kotchman (Erstad insurance plus he could get the DH job)
R: David Dellucci
R: David Newhan
R: Jay Payton
R: David Riske
R: J.C. Romero
R: Terry Tiffee
R: Farnsworth

Verdict: This league is way harder than my expert league. First off it's an auction and if you're a pro in a home league, you're going to get dogged, especially when you own six league championships. In an expert league, you quietly go about your business because you're just another guy. It's the same thing at Tout, which I attended. No one cares who is getting who; they're just burried in their spreadsheets. There's also keeper inflation here. The best news for me is that I have a very strong supplemental roster, with a bunch of veterans and solid MIRPs who will contribute and could contribute in a big way with one injury. I think my offense will be okay despite the slow start in power, where A-Rod and Teixeira have to carry me. The staff is a lot of young guys with upside. Not one of my starters is over 26. I'd feel better with a couple of solid veterans, but I'll look to acquire one via the trade route if necessary. Really, only three of your starters have to peform above average to contend. The key is always avoiding the dregs that absolutely slaughter your stats.

END (NO NEED TO CLICK THROUGH).

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April FA Bidding

Generally, April free agent bidding is a sucker's play.

The exception is rounding out your roster with players you liked, but who fell through the cracks. This assumes you can add players without cutting anyone and that the cost, in terms of free agent acquistion money is minimal (my expert league has it that you can bid $0 on someone and get him if no one else bids).

Getting a guy based on a few at bats or innings pitched is silly in the context of a 162-game season. Hastiness can cost you guys that come much more cheaply when free agent money gets tighter in the summer.

Worse, this fickleness can nullify a great draft-day gambit. Last year, in my AL-only home league, an owner took Juan Rincon in the supplemental draft but cut him after making a flurry of ultimately meaningless free agent pickups in April. I picked Rincon up off the waiver wire a few weeks later and he became reaped the benefits when he became one of the game's most dominant middle relievers.

As a general rule, look for upside in early-season bidding. If a player has some interesting skills and is getting a chance to utilize them, he's worth a flyer. But if you're just looking to fill a hole with fantasy flotsam, why bother? Change isn't necessarily good.

Getting a good read on a player is very difficult at this juncture of the season because the sample size is impossibly small. When a player catches your eye, track him over a week or two and try to get a look at him in the flesh (assuming you have the means through the Major League Baseball Season Ticket). When you have a sufficient comfort level, the investment is more often worthwhile. If someone beats you to a free agent by making a decision without doing proper due dilligence, he'll be wrong far more often than he's right. END.

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Early Season Stat Blues

No, that's not a song off the Freewheelin' Bob Dylan.

It is, however, an affliction that all of us suffer from. You draft a guy with certain expectations and on April 8th, he's let you down. You wonder, "What was I thinking?"

Savvy owners draft skills and not stats. They do this not just becuase stats typically correlate to skills but because skills can be purchased at a discount but stats cannot. If you've done a good job in discounting last year's numbers when appropriate, you should have no trouble doing the same after the season's first week.

The trouble, of course, is that these stats are now poisoning actual standings and thus seem far less abstract and more threatening.

Yes, stats, ultimately, are all that matter in this game. But remember, we're all in the player predicting business. What a player has done stops mattering the second he does it. All that matters then is what he's most likely to do going forward.

So if you're in an early season rut already, fear not. Remember, Johan Santana had a 6.00-ish ERA in June last year. We have an almost ridiculously long season ahead of us.

Still, you want to get off to a good start because good stats matter as much now as they matter at any time during the season. If your players are overachieving, you have a great opportunity to lock in profits by trading them. First, you have to recognize that fact and then you have to find that starry-eyed owner who firmly believes that past results absolutely indicate future performance. Make sure that owner isn't you. END.

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