Draft Day Notebook

I was fortunate enough to spend some time again with Paul Zimmerman at the Javits Center today. He recommended two more wines under $20: Caymus Conundrum (which sounds like an ancient riddle) and Cline's Mourvedre or Petite Sirah.

We discussed my stat index at length. Z's not a big fan of Bud Goode or yards per passing attempt (YPA), as he feels it rewards QBs who dink and dunk in garbage time. How much garbage time is there really nowadays? That's a question neither of us could answer. Even Z can't decide what the cutoff is. He suggested three scores in the fourth quarter, but then you have games like the Miracle at the Meadowlands (the Monday night win by the Jets when they were down 30-7 in the fourth quarter). I said, "Isn't 98 percent likelihood that it's garbage time good enough? Then you can just use your three score rule and back out any stats compiled afterwards." "No," I'm told. "If, it's not perfect, it keeps me up nights."

Stats Z is big on:

--Team passer rating (but, he insists, you have to factor in yards per completions somewhere in there because the system only rewards yards per attempt; and he wants sack yardage subtracted, too, though he paused when I asked if the number of minus plays was more important than total yards lost)

--QB rushing. Z later said that accuracy is, by far, the most important QB attribute. But he says that QB rushing has a psychological impact on a defense because they had a play stopped only to see that "freak thing" happen. (Personally, I'm more comfortable when the QB is running than when he's throwing; unless he's Michael Vick, which says all you need to say about Vick.)

--Punting stats that focus on the percentage of total punts returned (after touchbacks are subtracted from the punt total).

Brian Baldinger stopped buy for a long chat and was very impressive. He's turned his basement into a War Room, we're told, with the help of a steady stream of coach tapes courtesy of NFL Films.

"Do you want to go from the booth to the front office like Matt Millen?"

"Yeah. But I want to turn things around in two years, not five."

"The money is the problem," Z laments, meaning that money is too big a factor in personnel decisions.

Baldinger says that the biggest joke he sees week in and out is tight end blocking, saving most of his venom for L.J. Smith. "The Eagles better get a real tight end because watching that Super Bowl made me sick. Willie McGinnest and Mike Vrabel were tossing L.J. Smith into his own center like he was a rag doll," Baldinger said.

I ask him about Shockey, who he says is a receiver who isn't used correctly by the Giants. Z notes the game last year at Arizona. "(Cardinals defensive coordinator Clancy) Pendergast had the Giants screwed up all day," Z says as Baldinger nods approvingly, knowing what's coming. "They'd max protect and Arizona would drop everyone back into coverage so Tiki Barber and Shockey were stuck doing nothing useful."

That turns the conversation to coaching. Baldinger did five Redskins games, he says, and was unimpressed with Joe Gibbs. "I wanted to see the halo over his head, really. But there was no fire there."

"His heart's not in it," Z says. "I talked to him when he got the job and said,'Do you really want to get involved in a situation where you have the owner and GM undercutting you?' 'That's not going to happen,' he said. But now he's a little vulnerable and look who's calling the shots. Santana Moss for Coles? Are you kidding?"

"Moss can't get out of the whirlpool," Baldinger adds.

"And he's holding out for a new contract. Couldn't you have found that out BEFORE you traded for him?"

Continuing with coaches, Z says that he always knocked Charlie Weis but called him up last year and told him what a good job he was doing. "He really is a genius."

Baldinger says that other teams should build like New England. "They can't," Z says. "Why not?" Baldinger persists. "Because what you have there is a perfect, egoless symbiosis between GM and coach."

Z adds, "Has anyone ever gone into a game against the Pats and said, 'We have to stop Tom Brady.' Why not?"

Baldinger wants to know if Z thinks Brady is the best cold weather QB ever. "What about Favre?" I ask. "Or Fran Tarkenton, who only had trouble in the Super Bowl when the weather was better."

Z summons us all close as if he's going to share a secret. "There have been three QBs in my lifetime that I would swear, if I didn't know better, were throwing games: Joe Namath, Ken Stabler and Brett Favre. Favre makes passes so bad sometimes that it seems like he's trying to. Then he walks off the field laughing. His lineman aren't laughing."

Turning to the draft, Z asks. "Can you guess who my favorite player is in this class?"

Baldinger throws out a lot of wide receivers to no avail.

"(USC Inside Linebacker Lofa) Tatupu. He's never going to be a star but he's going to hang around for 10 years like his father and help you."

Z asks Baldinger who he dislikes.

"Mike Williams. I just don't see him as a future star. When I watched the USC tapes, Keary Colbert stood out more. Colbert blocked."

"Is Williams the new J.J. Stokes?" I ask.

They both nod at the possibility.

Z can't get the coaching out of his mind. "That San Diego-Jets game still bugs me. Best example ever of a coach totally misreading his team and the flow of the game. The Jets were dead! And then I write a long article and guess what other coaches would act similarly, failing to mention Herm Edwards becasue I figure he just lived through it. And look what happens...."

In light of their draft, it's safe to say that the Jets think the real problem in that game was the kicker.

"The whole playoffs were a coaching disaster," Baldinger says. He adds that he hears that the Eagles are going to have a press conference and finally come clean about what happened in those last five minutes of the Super Bowl." Neither me nor Z can figure out if he's kidding.

Z thinks the coaches are needlessly exhausting themselves by working around the clock and not being alert when it's most needed, on game day.

Baldinger says, "If they're working so hard, why aren't they coaching better? Why aren't people doing a better job drafting players. It's like it always was: 10 guys in the first round of every draft will be stars, 10 will be okay and 10 will be busts. Why doesn't that success ratio ever improve?"

I ask when this whole working around the clock thing started. Did Tom Landry used to do this? "Landry used to go home during the week in time to eat dinner with his family," we're told by Z. "I guess this all started with Dick Vermeil when he was with Philly," Baldinger adds.

Baldinger is set to leave and we notice how fit he is. "You must be down to 215," Z says. "255," Baldinger says. "I had to get my weight down to help my knees." I notice his Chuck Bednarik fingers, all twisted at odd angles after numerous dislocations in the trenches.

After the legendary Bert Sugar comes by to say hello, sporting his trademark fedora and (unlit) cigar, the talk turns to boxing. Z covered Ali in his prime and then at the end. I lament the GOAT's last fight against Larry Holmes.

"I have very bad memories about that night and they aren't just limited to Ali," Z says. "I got to the arena late and was stuck with a really crappy seat. I asked the guy running the event if I could take a folding chair and put it near ringside. He says, 'Sure.' And I proceed. But this hulking security guard balks. So I have to go back and have the boss tell him to let me do it. When I finally get my seat in place, he plants himself right in front of me, blocking my view. When I complain I can't see, he says, 'I was told that I had to let you sit here not that I had to let you see the fight.' I lose it and throw a right at this guy's jaw and his eyes roll back and blood starts flowing from his face and my knuckles. I decide to high tail it out of there. But, like an idiot, I don't just keep walking but decide to stop because people are getting refunds because of some problem with the projection screens. 'So,' I figure, 'Why not make a couple of bucks on the way out?'" Z says, smiling, knowing this is sounding like a bad Jewish joke. "So, while I'm waiting in line, my knuckles deformed and bleeding, a bunch of people come running up, yelling, 'There he is! That's him!' Much legal trouble ensued. The guy ended up getting 32 stitches, which made me look really bad. I thought that was way beyond what was necessary but was told by a friend that emergency room staff who work overnights get paid by the stitch."

After this, the draft was all downhill.

END.