More on OPS and the Baseball Playoffs

(An update to my column that I do for Grand Rapids, with current OPS team stats)

It seems incredibly obvious that the teams with the greatest advantage in slugging and generating baserunners relative to what their pitchers allow are more likely to win the most games. Still, I'm unaware of anyone correlating OPS differential to winning percentage.

So this test drive is just for fun. Take it to your nearest off-shore casino and you might end up like my friend who lost his rent last year going the wrong way on "Alien vs. Predator."

That disclaimer aside, the best AL team according to this stat is the Indians. In fact, the Indians are No. 1 in baseball in OPS differential (.776 for /.701 allowed). Stop chuckling and note that Cleveland is 8-2 over the last 10 games, has the majors' second-best road record and is neck and neck with the Yanks (.805/.761) for the wildcard. Our analysis suggests the ChiSox (seven games up in the Central) have been lucky, as they are only fifth best in the Junior Circuit (.739/.703). OPS differential likes the A's (.746/.684) to extend their lead over the Angels (.733/.714). The Yankees (.805/.761) have a slight edge on the Red Sox (.819/.780) in the East, but that might not be enough to overcome the three-game lead Boston holds in the loss column. Again, given the Indians dominance, they're the OPS pick to win the wildcard.

The best NL team in this stat is St. Louis (.765/.707). But the Mets (.742/.740) are second, ahead of Atlanta. Given the Braves five-game edge in the loss column, the Mets seem most likely to emerge from the wildcard scramble. The Phillies (.750/.754) and Nationals (.707/.723) are in minus OPS territory, which strongly suggests a September fade. Remember, someone has to win the West and the Padres are the best there in OPS, though predictably mediocre overall (.730/.735). Houston (.726/.798) sits at fourth-best in the NL, well behind the wildcard-bound Mets.

Click here to read the rest of this entry.

Expert League Review

Had a draft last night. 10-team expert league with Scott Pianowski and a bunch of Football Guru guys. I had the sixth pick in a snake draft. This league is standard scoring except that there's one-point per reception (which screws up the running back rankings). Here's what I did:

1. Domanick Davis (the reception rule)
2. Ahman Green
3. Curtis Martin
4. Nate Burleson
5. Donald Driver
6. Larry Johnson
7. Todd Heap
8. Eric Moulds
9. Muhsin Muhammad (pretty please play Jeff Blake, Bears)
10. Eddie Kennison
11. Jake Delhomme
12. Jake Plummer
13. Derrick Blaylock (Martin insurance)
14. Justin McCareins
15. Shayne Graham (has a Week 10 bye, latest among kickers)
16. Colts Defense (they force teams into obvious passing situations the second half)

I think that's pretty good. I like LJ as my fourth back. You cannot let your Priest Holmes owner get Johnson. And in deeper leagues, backups with upside aren't handcuffed because everyone is looking for a third back.

Here's Scott Pianowski's team in the same league (he picked 10th). I like Scott's team a lot (no suprise):

1. Deuce McAllister (a steal)
2. Peyton Manning
3. Steven Jackson
4. Tony Gonzalez (a great haul in a one-point per reception league where you have to play a TE)
5. Laveranues Coles
6. J.J. Arrington (Dyn-O-Mite)
7. Chris Chambers
8. Rod Smith
9. Mewelde Moore
10. Brandon Stokely
11. Duce Staley
12. Brandon Lloyd
13. L.J. Smith
14. Bobby Engram (A Pianow Pocket Pick)
15. Sebastian Janikowski
16. Chicago Bears D

Other notables: Marc Bulger was the fourth QB (fifth round). Carson Palmer went in the sixth round (I got Delhomme five rounds later and Plummer six rounds later). Kerry Collins went with the eighth pick of round seven (I like that pick, of course). Chad Johnson went 3-3, two picks before Marvin Harrison. Reggie Wayne also was drafted in Round 3. Antonio Gates went right after Gonzalez (and right before I could grab him). LT and Shaun Alexander went 1-2, as they should in every league. First defense was New England at 10-2, but the Panthers were a better value a full round later. Terrell Owens didn't slide at all, as he was the first receiver taken (2-2, Moss was 2-9).

Click here to read the rest of this entry.

Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on August 29 - September 4

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Matthew LeCroy, DH, Twins: He's been flashing light-tower power since Torii Hunter's regular-season-ending injury and even qualifies at catcher in many leagues, given his 26 starts there in '04.

Mike Mussina, P, Yankees: He's been rotten on the road and bad in his last three starts. But we like him this week at Seattle and at Oakland because he's had a solid 76/26 K/BB ratio in road starts, suggesting he's been unlucky.

Bench 'em

Shannon Stewart, OF, Twins: He's avoiding the disabled list with his bad shoulder, but is that merely wishful thinking on the part of the injury-ravaged Twins? He's scheduled to sit all weekend and will be too risky to start come Monday.

Jeremy Bonderman, P, Tigers: He's disappointed since the All-Star break and now is battling a sore wrist after taking a liner in his last start. His two starts this week are very much up in the air.


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Kyle Farnsworth, P, Braves: He's zoomed past Chris Reitsma and looks set to be Atlanta's closer for the stretch drive. The schedule agrees with the Braves, as they get the punchless Nationals and the free-swinging Reds.

Dustin Mohr, OF, Rockies: Don't let his season numbers throw you; he's around .290 with eight home runs in the second half. This week Mohr takes aim at two weak Chicago pitchers, then he heads home to friendly Coors Field.

Bench 'em

Livan Hernandez, P, Nationals: He's been racked in four of his last five turns, perhaps because of the season-long knee problems he's been dealing with. Forget the fact that he gets two starts this week; you don't want to use him against the Braves and Phillies.

Rich Aurilia, 2B, Reds: It's not a good time to roll with any fringe Cincinnati player, with the Reds facing Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt and Tim Hudson over three consecutive nights.

Click here to read the rest of this entry.

Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on August 22 - 28

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Luis Matos, OF, Orioles: He's been very hot lately, getting his average over .300 to go along with his 13 steals (despite missing a month).

Al Leiter, P, Yankees: There's not much to like about this fading lefty, but hold your nose and take two starts this week at home against the Blue Jays and the moribund Royals.

Bench 'em

Phil Nevin, DH, Rangers: Does anyone want this guy? Now the Rangers are rumored to be looking for a waiver deal after giving most of his at bats to phenom Adrian Gonzalez.

Wade Miller, P, Red Sox: I guess this is why the Red Sox signed Miller for a song. His shoulder is barking again and all that awaits this week are some side sessions.


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Noah Lowry, P, Giants: He's got a tidy 1.71 ERA in the second half, and we have to like him at home against the Mets and Phillies. Lowry doesn't throw gas but he's still striking out about eight batters per nine innings.

Ryan Doumit, C, Pirates: He's finally getting regular playing time and rewarding the faith, with a 16-for-32 stretch the past two weeks. The Bucs get a full seven games this week, which is an extra bonus (ten teams have a day off on this slate).

Bench 'em

Woody Williams, P, Padres: He's had five messy starts in six, so even with the Astros and Rockies calling, there's too much risk here.

Mike Lieberthal, C, Phillies: There's a playoff push going on in Philadelphia but it's in spite of this guy. Lieberthal has a puny .211 average, no home runs and one run scored over the past month, another victim of the dog days of August.

Click here to read the rest of this entry.

Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on August 15 - 21

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Jamie Moyer, P, Mariners: He gets a start this week against the Royals at home, where he's been dominant. If you own Moyer, plan ahead and minimize starts away from Safeco.

Felix Hernandez, P, Mariners: We don't care where this phenom is hurling. But home starts against the punchless Royals and Twins are very nice.

Bench 'em

Daniel Cabrera, P, Orioles: Ever so tantalizing for fantasy owners, with his dominant stuff and elusive command. Cabrera is thisclose to being a dominant starter. But he's been very wild lately and gets one start this week against the hot, patient A's.

Mark Kotsay, OF, A's: We had high hopes for Kotsay this year, but he's been severely hampered since the break by a recurrence of an old back injury. Keep him benched until he proves he's over it.


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Juan Pierre, OF, Marlins. Now is the time to buy him low, so you can watch him pile up the bags against Los Angeles on the weekend. When it comes to throwing out base stealers, the Dodger catchers are far and away the worst in the league.

Matt Holliday, OF, Rockies. He's at .358 since the break with seven home runs, and all the Rockies will have more fun now that Todd Helton is back in the mix. Colorado is home for all six games this week.

Bench 'em

Doug Davis, P, Brewers. He hasn't won in his last nine starts, and his control has totally abandoned him the last couple of weeks. Find another economical lefty.

Preston Wilson, OF, Nationals. Those deep fences in Washington are no fun, just ask Jose Guillen. Wilson is hitting just .226 since touching base in DC, with 33 strikeouts in 84 at-bats.

Click here to read the rest of this entry.

Pianowski Responds Re: T.O.

By Scott Pianowksi

These are things I said about TO Thursday, at some point, in some order. They might not flow cohesively, but for what it's worth, I said them or wrote them:

I think most of what I have read on Wednesday was fair. Owens was suspended, he didn't leave on his own accord. But he did act like a man who was begging to be suspended.

When something like this happens to a player once, or maybe twice, maybe it's them. A full career of it? It's you. Accept responsibility. Steve Mariucci, Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid. What do they all have in common? Highly respected men who tried very hard to make it work with TO - and came away shaking their heads, thinking, there's no way you can do it.

How many teams would go after Owens in trade right now? Not many. Many no one. Is everyone just morons and only TO is enlightened? I can't buy that.

I realize this isn't as black-and-white as everyone seems, and Owens isn't quite as bad a guy as he's generally accepted as, but still, I think he created most of the current situation he's in. I can't find a way to get around that.

If the addendum had an addendum, I'd go the other side of what Mike's saying. TO isn't 100 percent in the wrong, but he's gone out of his way to make his life difficult and tricky and hard. I don't have sympathy for that. And I think he basically forced the one-week suspension with the collection of his acts, especially swearing at Reid and refusing to practice with the team when he's doing physical stuff elsewhere. If I ran the Eagles or rooted for them, I'd be thinking either (a) we're not giving in here, or (b) we need to move this guy. Period.

To a lesser extent, this is why the Vikings were smart to do what they did with Moss. As great as Randy Moss is, he brought the same circus element TO does, and a healthy cap chunk to boot, and eventually you realize, "hey, maybe we're better off without this guy, no matter that he's insanely talented." In some other sports, it may not matter as much, this type of disharmony - baseball especially, an individual game with no cap. But in a team game with a real cap, you can't have this element. It truly does have a cancerous affect, I truly believe that.

TO is Albert Belle. He needs chaos around him. I grant to Mike that Owens isn't always seen fairly in the media and in public opinion that has already painted him the antichrist, but TO's done all he can to make his situation as chaotic as it can be. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Done spamming y'all - out.

Click here to read the rest of this entry.

Eagles Cut Off Nose

The suddenly less rotund Andy Reid is so eager to drop weight that he's apparently willing to cut off his nose to spite his face.

I made my feelings about T.O. known in the latest Breakfast Table, as did my friend and colleague Scott Pianowski. Did yesterday's events make me change a somewhat pro-Owens stance?

No. I'm not hear to stand in judgment of Owens or Reid or his teammates. People and situations are the way they are. The challenge in life is always to find the areas where our circles overlap. Owens wants to be a great player. The Eagles presumably want great players. And his teammates presumably want to play with great players so that they win and have that success add to their lives financially and in less tangible ways.*

Instead of finding commonality of interest, Eagles players (at least according to published reports) and management have made things immeasurably worse.

But the Eagles are emboldened by a very non-friendly media that simply does not like Owens. I won't speculate why that is here, because that's not the point of this entry (though the answer is obvious). But when the reports say, "Owens Leaves Camp" (when he was expelled by Reid according to those same reports) and, "Owens Seeks to Renegotiate 7-year, $49 million deal he signed last year," well, it's just too tempting for everyone involved to put the screws to Owens. I think Owens is a breath of fresh air in a very stuffy sport. (The block party was a stroke of promotional genius.) I liked the Sharpie and the pom-poms, too. Owens has a tremendous ego, but that's probably why he's such a great player and why he pushes his body to the limits of human conditioning (going shirtless was also a powerful way of illustrating what the Eagles are denying themselves).

Owens is also a smart guy who generally makes good points. He does deserve more money from the Eagles after he risked his career against doctor's orders for their benefit in February. As it stands, Owens is due a huge bonus next spring and if the Eagles decide to cut him beforehand, he's playing 2005 for relative peanuts. Should he live with that deal he signed? His February sacrifice makes that tougher for me to answer. But he's got a much better chance to secure that portion of his signing bonus now than he does in March. He knew what he was getting into last summer, you say? Well, so did Philly.

Owens is not talking and singing autographs. As Owens said, he's not paid to do that. If he's unhappy with the terms of his contract, why do anything more than what is required? He's not talking to teammates. The Eagles are to blame for that because they humiliated Owens by refusing to even allow him to save face in the contractual stare-down. Owens' pride is wounded. That's why he's not interacting with anyone outside the two players (Greg Lewis and Jeremiah Trotter) for whom he feels genuine affection.

Step back for a second. Forget about what you've heard and how events are being spun. Who is being more petulant here, more childish? Owens or Reid and the rest of the Eagles? To me, it's a toss-up.

*Ironically, while Owens gets criticized for putting himself above the team, these players are putting their emotional needs (not having the Owens "distraction") above what is so obviously in the team's interest, i.e., benefiting from Owens' unquestioned abilities as a football player.

Click here to read the rest of this entry.

Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on August 8 - 14

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Chris Snelling, OF, Mariners: He was hitting .360 in the Pacific Coast League, forcing the Mariners to trade Randy Winn. His debut was delayed only because of some poor roster management by Seattle. He's up for good now and will likely bat second.

Fernando Rodney, P, Tigers: No one saw the Kyle Farnsworth trade coming, so he's a free agent pickup in most leagues. If you got him, congrats. Now use him, as he has the top-shelf stuff needed to emerge as a solid closer.

Bench 'em

Roy Halladay, P, Blue Jays: Toronto is concerned that Halladay's recently healed broken leg will limit his ability to field. They're also very concerned about Halladay altering his motion due to the leg, which risks an arm injury. So keep him benched until you see him start one game.

Orlando Hernandez (P, White Sox): Yes, he has two starts: at the Yanks and at the Red Sox. Check please. El Duque has been up and down all year, battled arm woes and isn't worth the risk this week.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in
Juan Encarnacion, OF, Marlins. The production numbers are solid, and increased patience has kept the batting average afloat. Encarnacion also gets a full seven games to attack this week, including a quick stop at Coors Field.

Jose Valverde, P, Diamondbacks. The Snakes continue to look for possible closers under every rock, but Valverde is the name they need to come back to. He's blowing away hitters right now (14 strikeouts in 6.2 innings), and can work multiple innings, if necessary. Buy in.

Bench 'em

Joe Randa, 3B, Padres. Just because San Diego wanted him doesn't mean you should. Randa is struggling through a .207 funk over the past month with just one home run and five RBIs, and Petco Park isn't going to fix his stats, either (the Pads are at home for all six this week).

Jeff Suppan, P, Cardinals. The league is hitting .296 against him, and Suppan isn't keeping the ball in the park with any regularity, either. His two-start tour this week is simply two more chances for him to take down your ERA and sabotage your ratio. Avoid.

Click here to read the rest of this entry.

NFL Fantasy Rankings Now Posted

Key stats, fantasy rankings, detailed analysis just a click away.

Click here to read the rest of this entry.