We'll soon find out which NFL team anoints Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler or Vince Young the collegiate quarterback "most likely to succeed." The title is nominal, but not the $25 million or so in guaranteed money that accompanies it.
The draftee deserves to smile when he takes the stage and dons his new team's cap. He's made it through a gauntlet of physical and mental tests. Unfortunately for the NFL, these tests just don't appear to measure what it really takes to be being a top NFL QB. So instead of returning the smile of his "QB of the future," general managers are appropriately served by a massive attack of post-purchase anxiety.
The 14 QBs drafted in the first round between 1999 and 2003 collectively would have ranked 20th in QB last year based only on '05 stats. Half have never finished top 10 in any major category (even quantitative ones like attempts). Three are already out of the league, another just released and one more was benched in '05. Meanwhile Tom Brady, a former 2000 sixth-round pick, is viewed by many as the game's premier player for his ability to play his best when the stakes are highest.
NFL talent evaluators and sports and neuropsychologists agree that success is ultimately be determined by what's inside each QB's head. Who is best wired to respond to the enormous pressure of being an NFL quarterback during the most critical moments of competition?
"We all want to find that magic bullet," says an AFC personnel director, all but admitting the futility of current approaches such as a wide range psychological tests and the famous Wonderlic intelligence test that has been religiously relied on by teams since Paul Brown introduced it to the NFL in the mid 1960s.
The Wonderlic was in the headlines recently when Young was rumored to have gotten only six of the 50 questions right in the allotted time. Upon further review (and, many suspect, a second chance), he scored a 16. There's a strong possibility this type of performance will sink his draft stock. But should it?
"What is intelligence?" asks Dr. John Rodenbough, founder of NeuropsychWorks. "It's our ability to respond to our environment." So while the Wonderlic is great for determining how quickly a QB can calculate the amount of rope he can buy with so much money at a given price, it sheds little insight into how quickly he can pick up a blitz or how he'll respond once he does.
When one looks at the leaked Wonderlic scores of veteran QBs, there seems to be little correlation to performance. Why may be answered by recent research demonstrating that, the smarter we are, the more likely we are to choke under pressure.
"When a critical moment arrives, thinking can be counter-productive," says Dr. Sian Beilock of the University of Chicago, who led a study into the issue. Beilock says that quarterbacks who excel at holding a lot of information "online" are likely to lose this edge when feeling pressure common to a game's decisive moments. Interestingly, her research suggests that QBs with average intelligence wouldn't experience any significant declines during similar stress.
Designers of psychological tests used by the NFL are always striving to stay ahead of savvy agents and players who might cheat them with prepared or insincere answers. But renowned skeptic and psychologist Michael Shermer says that these types of tests don’t correlate well to performance in fields where relevant databases are exponentially larger than current and former NFL QBs.
Many still claim success. Dr. Bob Troutwine has consulted with many recent Super Bowl teams and currently works with six clubs (Patriots, Colts, Panthers, Eagles, Rams, Jets). "My tests are used to advise clients which players will exceed their talent level and vice versa. For example, can a QB put a mistake behind him, whether it's his or someone else's, and move on to the next play?"
Some outsiders are unimpressed with the NFL's current approach.
"(It's) a farce based to a large degree on inappropriate tests and interpretations that have little if any predictive validity in terms of critical-moment performance," says Dr. Roland Carlstedt, chairman of the American Board of Sports Psychology.
During, say, a two-minute drill to potentially win a game, Carlstedt maintains psychological factors have a 70 percent impact on performance as opposed to just 10 percent during non-critical moments. Former Dolphins GM and current ESPN analyst Rick Spielman says that he's done research into quarterback performance during pressure and non-pressure situations that supports Carlstedt's claims.
"This is the major reason why players fail," Spielman says, "not due to physical traits."
Adds Carlstedt, "Brain processes central to (success), namely focus, intensity and cognitive processing (thinking/planning) ... can be discerned on the basis of lab-based and on-the-field tests."
Carlstedt is not alone in claiming products or methods that can quantify performance intangibles.
Dr. Jon Cowan, CEO of Peak Achievement Training, has portable technology that can measure a QB's ability to sustain alertness and focus in the way tha's commonly referred to by athletes as "the zone." It costs about $5,000.
Rodenbough has designed a computer-based test that can be used to objectively assess the ability to shift attention and maintain concentration. The head spins when he notes the many factors in constant competition for a QB's attention: fear of injury and losing, visual and vocal distractions from the opponent and crowd, the play call, snap count and anticipation of where to move the ball relative to an ever-shifting defensive landscape.
Rodenbough says he chuckled when seeing a quote from the late GM George Young about not drafting players either too dumb or too smart. "I'd revise Mr. Young's quote to say, 'We don't want to draft players who can't pay attention efficiently and we sure don't want to draft them if they pay too much attention to the wrong things.'"
NFL decision makers are interested in different approaches, but skeptical.
"Of course, we all want a better mousetrap. But, ultimately, we're humans grading humans," says the AFC scouting director.
Adds Spielman, "Resisting new technology is always a mistake. But there's subjectivity even here. What will the focus or attention score mean? Who interprets that? These all can be important complementary tools. But we're grading football players and that football grade must be kept separate."
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