Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on August 1 - 7

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Dan Johnson, 1B, A's: We advised getting him right after his call up. With more walks than strikeouts, he's likely to continue hitting .300 with 20-homer power. Don't be afraid of the Twins pitchers and look forward to the Royals next weekend.

Joe Blanton, P, A's: Has fallen out of favor because he's slumped since the break, but we see 14 Ks in his last 17-plus innings and two starts this week (Twins, who've never faced him, and Royals).

Bench 'em

Aaron Hill, 3B, Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are trying to find him more playing time by swinging a deadline deal, but Hill is mired in a slump and doesn't flash power or speed. The chance of decent average isn't worth the risk of lost playing time.

David Bush, P, Blue Jays: We like Bush, who has been excellent since returning. But the lack of strikeouts suggests he's overachieving and he only gets one start this week in Chicago, an extreme hitter's park.


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Chris Duffy, OF, Pirates: Speedy centerfielder should have a job for the last two months as the Bucs start getting ready for 2006. The Pirates are just one of four NL teams to play seven games this week, another plus for Duffy.

Claudio Vargas, P, Diamondbacks: Pitching coach Mark Davis has worked wonders with Vargas, and Arizona faces two mediocre offenses this week (Astros and Rockies, the latter likely without Todd Helton).

Bench 'em

Rob Mackowiak, OF, Pirates: Mack Daddy has turned into Hack Daddy - a puny .156 average in July with just five walks. The Pirates have a host of roster options at the moment, so Mackowiak's time as a regular could be short lived.

Josh Beckett, P, Marlins: He's still more of a fantasy tease than anything else, and this week his lone start comes at St. Louis, the hardest spot in the NL this year now that Colorado is de-clawed. In more shallow leagues that offer multiple options, this is the time to rest Beckett.

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Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on July 25 - July 31

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Sammy Sosa, OF, Orioles: With seven games this week and two matchups against former teams (Rangers, White Sox), maybe Sosa can build on the encouraging signs he showed last week.

Nate Robertson, P, Tigers: The lefty is scheduled for two starts this week (at Seattle, at Oakland) and we expect him to be in fine form in these parks, which favor left-handed hitters.

Bench 'em

Brett Boone, 2b, Twins: Boone has not rewarded the confidence the Twins showed in acquiring him after he was designated for assignment by the Mariners. Right now, he's in the minus-value category of hitters.

Dustin Hermanson, P, White Sox: The Sox say he'll be a game-time decision until further notice due to his bad back. That makes him too risky to roster in mixed leagues.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies: Colorado is at home for a full week, facing a bunch of back-end starters. This is the week Helton plays pinball at Coors.


Odalis Perez, P, Dodgers: If you can make it in Philly, you can make it anywhere. Perez gets two starts at friendly Chavez Ravine this week, one of them against the free-swinging Reds, so it's a good time to buy in.

Bench 'em

Jose Guillen, OF, Nationals: He's battling a long list of aches and pains, and the home address isn't helping at all (one dinger at RFK). The news about the dimensions being listen wrong in the park won't help Guillen's mental outlook any.


Dontrelle Willis, P, Marlins: We've seen second-half fades from him in the past, so the recent struggles have to be taken seriously. Wait for one more good start then sell him.

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Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on July 18 - July 24

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Eric Bedard, P, Orioles: The Orioles lefty was red hot before being sidelined with a bum knee. Can he pick up where he left off? He gets two starts this week against the weak-hitting Twins and Devil Rays.

Cliff Lee, P, Indians: We know he's been awful lately (7.00 ERA his last three starts), but he gets two starts against the Royals and Mariners. Lee makes a nice buy right now because of the Indians incredibly weak schedule the last 35 games.

Bench 'em

Kenny Rogers, P, Rangers: Rogers seems to have a lot other than pitching on his mind and has a suspension hanging over him. His ERA over his last few starts is over 5.00. He'll get pounded in Texas on Wednesday by the Yankees.

Nook Logan, OF, Tigers: There's a log jam in the Tigers outfield with Magglio Ordonez' return. After a hot start, Logan hit .256 in June and is at .095 in July, looking like the fifth outfielder he projected to be based on his minor league stats.


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies: He's now slotted third ahead of Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell in the Philly lineup, and Utley plays in the home bandbox for all six games this week.

Chad Cordero, RP, Nationals: He's set up perfectly for a run at the save record; the Nationals are a winning club that plays a lot of low-scoring games. Cordero should be busy this week with seven home dates against two non-contending teams (Rockies, Astros).

Bench 'em

Aaron Miles, 2B, Rockies: Colorado heads to the road for seven games, and they'll face decent pitching along the way (including three games at Washington). It's the wrong time to play your fringe Rockies.

Mark Redman, P, Pirates: It's been a month since Redman had a decent start, so you don't want to double dip with him this week. Redman's value will take an additional hit if he's dealt out of Pittsburgh, as PNC Park is a favorable spot for the fly-balling lefty.

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GM Overconfidence and Inefficiency

Read a very interesting research paper recently by two professors, Cade Massey of Duke and Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago. The subject is "The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft."

Massey and Thaler apply heuristics to the player selection process. These are psychological factors or biases that effect our judgment. Biases include overconfidence, the winner's curse, false consensus, non-regressive predictions.... The conclusion is that NFL teams overvalue high first-round picks both in terms of what is required to acquire them via trade and in terms of what they pay higher-selected players. As a result, high first round picks are the least valuable in the NFL draft when you measure the surplus value that picks can be expected to produce (again, this is relative to cost, which is very, very high for players picked highly in the first round).

The authors conclude that teams have not come to grips with the implications of the salary cap. They say that there's no economic justification for the value that all the GMs place on moving up X-number of draft slots based on the formula devised by Jimmy Johnson. Teams don't realize that expensive players, even if they are great, "impose opportunity costs elsewhere on the roster." They rip the Giants for investing what they did in dollars and in draft picks for Eli Manning, saying that the Giants were typically overconfident in their ability to recognize greatness. They say that every team that trades up in the first round is making a mistake for that reason and also because they fall into the common trap of believing that everyone is thinking like they are. In other words, if GMs did nothing, there is a very good chance that the player they targeted would have fallen to them at their original pick. Even if that were not to happen, the authors research shows, the likelihood of GMs getting player appreciably worse later in the first round is barely greater than 50-50 and any increased odds over that coin flip are not worth the extra dollars that the higher-drafted player will surely cost.

I think the study is fascinating and will mine it for relevance to the fantasy GM later in the week.

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Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on July 11 - July 17

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Curt Schilling, P, Red Sox: After being sidelined since April with a bum ankle, Schilling will return after the all-star break as the Sox primary closer.

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners: He’s been on a tear of late, with 25 ribbies in June, raising his average about 30 points in the process. He’ll have to run hot for quite a while to make up for April and May.

Bench 'em

Javy Lopez, C, Orioles: Manager Lee Mazzilli said that Lopez (hand) isn’t likely to be active for the Orioles first series after the all-star break.


Tino Martinez, 1B, Yankees: Jason Giambi is hot and Martinez slumping miserably. With rookie CF Melky Cabrera called up to provide defense, Tino will have to compete with Bernie Williams for DH at bats.



/kickz>NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros: He's quietly been on every pitch for about a month or so. The power hasn't come back all the way yet, but it's coming soon. Buy in now.

Jake Peavy, P, Padres: Don't sweat the recent rocky stretch - the strikeout numbers tell us Peavy is still capable of dominating. Now is the time to quietly steal him from a frustrated owner.

Bench 'em

Bill Hall, 3B, Brewers: He's had a nice run, but the Brewers have roster gridlock with Russ Branyan back, and Hall's defensive problems could knock him out of the lineup now and again.


Brett Myers, P, Phillies: He's been lit up over the last month (5.40 ERA, 1.49 ratio), but the season numbers don't look bad yet. There's still time to execute a sell-high here.

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You Can't Make This Stuff Up

Even figures on Mexico's left have defended the comic book, which many read as children.

Novelist Elena Poniatowska, a noted supporter of leftist causes, was quoted in the newspaper La Jornada as calling the criticisms "absurd."

"In our country, the image of black people is one of enormous goodwill, which is reflected not only in characters like Memin Pinguin, but in popular songs ... like 'Little Black Watermelon,'" a song about an unruly little black boy.

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Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on July 4 - July 10

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Rafael Palmeiro, 1B, Orioles: Now batting cleanup against righties in place of the miserably slumping Sammy Sosa, Palmeiro has put some Viagra into his game of late: .338 over his last 17 games.


Victor Martinez, C, Indians: Guess who the majors' best hitting catcher was in June? Martinez (.309, six homers 20 RBI for the month, raising his average over 50 points) will continue rewarding his owners for their patience in April and May.


Bench 'em

Richard Hidalgo, OF, Rangers: Just 1-for-his-last-28 as manager Buck Showalter begins exploring other options. Hidalgo's constants fanning is nice for the crowds in blistering Arlington, but makes it necessary for his owners to explore other options.

David Wells, P, Red Sox: Here's a surprise: he may be hurt again. The Dunkin' Donuts conditioning program is never advisable for a professional athlete. Wells gets one start this week against the dangerous O's.


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Greg Maddux, P, Cubs: He's a hit-or-miss guy nowadays, but starts in Atlanta and Florida should keep the ERA and ratio tidy this week. Give him a chance as a two-start play.

Kelly Johnson, OF, Braves: Forget the 1-for-27 start; Bobby Cox stuck with this kid and it's paid off. Johnson is hitting .324 over the past three weeks, in part because he only swings at strikes (13 walks). He figures to stay parked at the top of the order the rest of the year.

Bench 'em

Lyle Overbay, 1B, Brewers: Trade him now before your leaguemates realize that Overbay is a platoon situation waiting to happen. He's punchless against left-handed pitching and Prince Fielder isn't far away.


Jeff Weaver, P, Dodgers: This streaky fly-ball pitcher can't be trusted in Coors Field, that we know for sure. Even with Weaver going twice this week, the trip to Colorado makes him unusable.

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