Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on May 30-June5

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Wade Miller, P, Red Sox: His nightmare first inning at Toronto last week has his season stats looking messy. But he's otherwise pitched well since returning from extended rehab and gets two home starts this week (Orioles, Angels).

Dan Johnson, 1B, A's. Johnson was tearing it up in Triple A after doing likewise in 2004 and looks to energize the lethargic Oakland lineup now that Erubiel Durazo is on the disabled list. He'll likely play every day in the near term and ultimately replace Scott Hatteberg.

Bench 'em
Carlos Silva, P, Twins: Striking out a pitiful three batters per nine innings, yet still posting gaudy ERA and ratio numbers because of impeccable control (two walks). He has to be perfect and never is versus the Yankees (12.60 career ERA).

Kevin Millar, 1B, Red Sox: Millar started poorly in 2004 and changed his stance. After starting even worse in 2005, he changed back. He's flailing in the darkness and John Olerud has been activated to steal playing time versus righties.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in
David Eckstein, SS, Cardinals. Scrappy underdog type is hitting .330 in May, and here comes a seven-game week that includes four games in Colorado.

Brad Penny, P, Dodgers. Four of his last six efforts have been very good, and you don't hold the bad turn in St. Louis against him. For the coming week Penny gets two starts, one against the stumbling Cubs offense.

Bench 'em
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs: He looks all messed up right now, and a road trip to Los Angeles and San Diego isn't any hitter's idea of a vacation.

David Weathers, RP, Reds: Some might jump all over his save last week, but Ryan Wagner is a better bet to close for the final four months. Weathers also has to deal with Colorado next weekend. Don't blow a chunk of free-agent cash here.

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Weekly League Touts (May 23-29)

By Mike Salfino and David Ferris

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Huston Street, P, A's: The initial reports on Octavio Dotel's elbow were murky but complaints of extreme pain are never good. Street gets the saves while Dotel is on the DL and has dominating stuff (27 Ks in 22 innings).

Bruce Chen, P, Orioles. The former phenom is striking guys out with unexpected frequency in '05. This week, he gets two starts against Seattle and Detroit with that mighty lineup behind him.

Bench 'em

Sammy Sosa, OF, Orioles: The Orioles said that Sosa will need time to condition his legs before being activated off the DL. Even if he's activated this week, he'll likely struggle while getting back into shape. Remember, he was struggling before his foot infection.

Kyle Lohse, P, Twins: The results have been there lately and he gets two starts this week, so why bench him? Because he still isn't missing enough bats and he's teased us before.

NATIONAL LEAGUE


Put 'em in

Craig Biggio, 2B, Astros. Now parked in the third spot in the batting order, and the eligibility at two positions is always nice.

Jeff Francis, P, Rockies. For once the young flamethrower gets two starts away from Coors Field. There is no safer time to plug him in.

Bench 'em

Matt Lawton, OF, Pirates: He's hit a rough patch, and the Bucs face a handful of tricky left-handers next week.

Russ Ortiz, P, Diamondbacks: It's bad enough to be toting around a 5.11 ERA, but the peripherals suggest it should be even worse. A lot of pitchers got overpaid last winter, but this contract was the biggest blunder of all.

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Weekly Leagues Touts (May 16-22)

By Mike Salfino and David Ferris

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Eric Chavez, 3B, A's. The 27-year-old All Star is too good to keep struggling so mightily. When Chavez breaks out of his duldrums, pitchers are going to pay big-time. Don't let it happen when he's on your bench.

Matt Clement, P, Red Sox. Clement is flashing dominating stuff and gets the light-hitting A's and Braves this week. Against Atlanta, Clement has 15 Ks and 2 BBs in 13 career innings.

Bench 'em

Casey Blake, OF, Indians: Blake has flashed power but is struggling to keep his average over .200. Lefty Jody Gerut could get most of a platoon split when his rehab assignment in Triple A ends this week.

Joel Pineiro, P, Mariners: One start this week against the suddenly-mighty-again Yankees. Pineiro has a declining strikeout rate and increase in homers allowed suggest his mysterious arm troubles of 2004 remain a problem.


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Brady Clark, OF, Brewers. He very quietly leads the NL in runs, and the Brewers are one of just two Senior Circuit clubs to get a full seven games.

Glendon Rusch, P, Cubs. He gets just one turn but it's coming against a Pittsburgh lineup that can't touch lefties. This is a great time to spot-start Rusch.

Bench 'em

Preston Wilson, OF, Rockies - He's hitting just .167 on the road and .246 with runners on. Wait for one more Coors-aided three-run homer from Wilson, then move him immediately. There's a good chance he won't be in Colorado all summer.

John Thomson, P, Braves. Normally you'd love him entering a two-start week, but Thomson's cranky back has acted up of late, and his second turn comes in a dangerous spot, Fenway Park.

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Garbage Time Challenge

Dr. Z looked over my Stat Power Index at the draft and opined with some suggestions.

Most important, he thinks garbage time stats have to be taken out of the equation. Sounds easy, right? In theory, maybe. But what's the universal point differential that signifies garbage time? And at what point in the game?

Z thought that down three scores in the fourth quarter would work. But there are teams that have come back from down three scores in the fourth quarter to win. Forget the Miracle at the Meadowlands. The other Monday Night Miracle, when the Colts visited the Bucs, saw Indy win despite being down 21 points with five minutes and change left in the game.

We're going to get into this more extensively later, when I get my thoughts together and send my opinion on the matter to the good Doctor. But our friend Bill Krasker at footballcommentary.com has a dynamic programming model that calculates the probability of winning during all game situations in order to assess coaching strategy.

He wrote to me in an e-mail, "If you fall behind by 21 points with 13:40 to go in the game, your probability of winning is just 0.005. If you fall behind by 21 points with 3:20 to go in the 3rd quarter, your probability of winning is 0.01. I can of course produce other probabilities; you just have to be specific about what you would like to see.

So then the question is, what win probability corresponds to 'garbage time.' Is it when the team brings in the subs and stops trying to win? Or is it when they are so far behind that, even though they're still trying to win, their best chance is to implement a drastic departure from their normal strategy (e.g. by passing on every down)?"

By the way, Krasker's model said the Colts probability of beating the Bucs in Tampa that night down 21 points with 5:09 left was .0002. He does think the model understates the benefits of the hurry up offense, so the number, he says, was probably closer to .001 (in other words, one team out of a thousand down that amount with that much time left will win).

Z says you have to find a number that no team could possibly come back from. But if minus-21 with five minutes left doesn't make the cut, what possibly could? If we're searching for loss certainty, garbage time will never exist. I think .01 is good enough. I mean, if it's good enough for birth control companies, it should be good enough for the SPI.

Again, more on this to come. END.

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Super Bowl Odds

Vegas feels comfortable enough with the lay of the land after the bulk of free agency and the NFL Draft to issue pre- preseason Super Bowl odds. These are odds to WIN the Super Bowl. So, if you bet the Niners hoping for the 250-to-1 payoff and they lose to the Pats come February, well then you're sh*t out of luck. Thanks for playing.

The Niners are the longests odds on the board. But after Giacomo wins the Derby as a 50-1 shot, people are understandbly greedy. Still, 250-1 isn't long enough to take a shot on San Fran. After the Niners, you have the Browns and Dolphins at 110-1 and 100-1 respectively.

You're better off burning a $100 bill than betting it on those two dogs.

Then we drop down to the Cardinals and Titans at 75-1. I like 'Zona at these odds because it's in a weak division and the Eagles are really the only iron-clad Super Bowl contender in the NFC.

Then you have the Bucs, Giants and Bears at 50-1. You know how the Stat Power Index (see link on left) views the Bucs. Tampa was a borderline playoff team according the Index. Their scoring differential supported such a ranking (at least in the NFC). The coach is good. Griese could be serviceable. I like them as the best Giacomo on the board.

The Texans are next at 45-1, which is surprising as they were a bit of a sweetheart last summer. I'm not loving that play, however. I don't like the offensive line or pass rush.

Working our way up from the team's with the shortest odds, you have the Pats and Eagles at 6-1 each. Obviously the Pats are hurt by sharing a conference with Vegas' third most likely Super Bowl winner, the Colts at 8-1. I guess it would be possible for the Colts to beat the Pats in Indy. Personally, I think they've burned too much cap resources on offense and should have said goodbye to Edgerrin and gone the Vikings route.

The second shortest odds in the NFC are the Falcons and Panthers. I like Carolina but the Falcons are never going to win anything until Michael Vick learns to throw the football (in other words, probably never). Atlanta will be .500 this year after their very lucky 2004. Call me crazy, but the play I like best in the NFC is the Vikings at 25-1; their defense looks pretty good on paper and I like their draft.

The Ravens (18-1) are viewed by Vegas as being better than the Jets (20-1). That has to be due to betting patterns because the Ravens don't have anything even resembling a QB and Ray Lewis, as Dr. Z told me on Draft Saturday, has been reduced to a pile jumper. In other words, he gets in on the action once the play has already been stopped.

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Baseball Weekly Plays (May 9-15)

Again, courtesy of Mr. Ferris and me via the Birmingham News.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

David Dellucci, OF, Rangers. Lasik eye surgery has given him 20/10 vision. His near .500 on base percentage won't be maintained. But Dellucci is leading off in a productive lineup and has decent speed and power.

John Lackey, P, Angels. He's striking out over eight batters per nine innings (like he did in the second half last year) and would sport a respectable 3.80 ERA with just average luck and defense on balls put in play. The 26-year-old righty has two starts this week (Cleveland, at Detroit).

Bench 'em

Joe Blanton, P, A's. The rookie righty has good control but doesn't miss enough bats. This week, he faces the Yankees for the second time in a row. Always be wary of young pitchers facing the same lineup in consecutive starts.

Nook Logan, OF, Tigers. Last year in the minors, Logan hit .260 with no power and four times as many strikeouts as walks. Logan is drawing attention for his speed, which is legitimate, and his high average, which is not.


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Luis Gonzalez, OF, Diamondbacks. His nifty start is still flying a little under the radar, and here comes a four-game set at Coors, where his career OPS is 1.031.
Brett Tomko, P, Giants. He's worked six innings or more in five of his six turns, and now he gets to attack the two worst offenses in the NL, the Pirates and Astros.

Bench'em

Russell Branyan, 3B, Brewers. The five homers look nice, but Branyan still isn't starting against lefties and the Brewers face at least three of them in six games this week.

Oliver Perez, P, Pirates. Normally we'd be excited about 28 strikeouts in 31.2 innings, but when you oppose that with 23 walks and eight home runs allowed, the whiffs don't bail out Perez. Something's fishy here.

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