Week 3 Scramble

First, the Universe league picks (the salary cap league is too confusing when I paste it):

Colts, Indianapolis IND TMQB
Shipp, Marcel ARI RB
Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
Lelie, Ashley DEN WR
Muhammad, Muhsin CHI WR
Robinson, Marcus MIN WR
Johnson, Keyshawn DAL WR
Watson, Ben NEP TE
Carney, John NOS PK
Chargers, San Diego SDC Def

I have no idea how I'm doing in this league. There are 30 teams and it's very complicated because it's impossible to track who has picked stars and who has avoided them. I'm going with Manning as my one star this week. That's Peyton, of course. Eli, I'm going the other way on. Peyton, five TD passes. Eli, five sacks and four turnovers as the Chargers defense makes him pay for his disrespect.

As for the Survivor league, we were golden on the two easy games but lost the outside-the-box pick (the Packers) last week. That's why it's dangerous to get cute in a survivor league. This week, of course, you have the Colts. But everyone is going to be all over that game. The Eagles are the second biggest favorite. But I can see them having trouble because Oakland can score. I know you never want to pick a road team, but the Cowboys will not lose this week in Frisco, you can book it.

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Universe League Picks

Here's what I went with. My brain turns into cherry jello about halfway through this.

Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC TMQB
Green, Ahman GBP RB
Holmes, Priest KCC RB
Horn, Joe NOS WR
Boldin, Anquan ARI WR
Porter, Jerry OAK WR
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR
Baker, Chris NYJ TE
Vanderjagt, Mike IND PK
Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def.

I'm in another league where you can play anyone any week and every week, but have to submit a lineup that's within budget. Here's what I did in that league (sorry for the garbled copy):

Fantasy Football Draft - Week 2
Deadline to trade is 10 minutes before scheduled kickoff for each player.
TEAM NAME: RotoAction-Salfino
SALARY BALANCE: $0
STATUS: Valid Roster
POS. PLAYER NAME OPP
(vs Pass, Rush) $
QB Carson Palmer - Cin Min (14,25) $46 Trade Player
Kerry Collins - Oak KC (32,7) $49 Trade Player
RB Warrick Dunn - Atl @Sea (21,22) $38 Trade Player
Willie Parker - Pit @Hou (7,28) $27 Trade Player
Reuben Droughns - Cle @GB (4,19) $34 Trade Player
WR Robert Ferguson - GB Cle (25,26) $28 Trade Player
Deion Branch - NE @Car (11,18) $32 Trade Player
Steve Smith - Car NE (24,13) $33 Trade Player
TE Tony Gonzalez - KC @Oak (29,9) $46 Trade Player
FLEX Peyton Manning - Ind Jac (19,17) $66 Trade Player
K Jeff Wilkins - StL @Ari (5,23) $33 Trade Player
Josh Scobee - Jac @Ind (31,10) $32 Trade Player
DEF Cincinnati Defense/Special Min (14,25) $32 Trade Player
Arizona Defense/Special StL (9,3) $29 Trade Player

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Week 2 Suicide Solution

The easy call is the Eagles, who are laying about two TDs at home against Frisco. I know that most are going to pick that game, but even if McNabb is out, the Eagles are very likely to prevail (if not cover).

If you want to hope for disaster against the Niners, who are capable enough defensively, there are the Colts, who are nine-point favorites at Indy vs. the Jags, who beat them in the dome last year. That's the game that the rest of the fantasy universe is most likely to pounce on.

For those who like to think outside-the-box and ghoul the heaviest favorites in order to thin out the population, look toward Green Bay, where the Browns are awful and facing the Packers at Lambeau. We know Green Bay has struggled at home of late, but can't see the Browns prevailing here.

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2005 NFL Over/Under Picks

It's a little late, but Pianow and I exchanged e-mails on this before kickoff last Sunday and I forgot to post it until now. (Well, I also didn't want anyone actually gambling on our recommendation and the books are closed now.)

My picks were Vikings and Chiefs both UNDER 9.5 wins. Also Bengals over 8 wins and Redskins over 7.5.

Pianow, as always, was more detail oriented in his recommendations:

STRONGEST PLAY:

- Carolina over 9

OTHER PLAYS:

- Chicago over 6.5
- Detroit under 8.5

Material herein not to be construed as an encouragement to bet or do anything illegal or otherwise. Enjoy the season.

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Home League Roundup

My home league is a bloodbath every year. There are 14 teams and limited keepers. Even though are keeper rule is tough (you pay three rounds higher to keep a guy than where you drafted him and you generally can't keep guys you trade for during the season), a lot of good guys are off the board at bargain prices.

The teams that had McGahee (in his second year after being drafted in Round 9 when he was still recovering from knee surgery as a rookie) and LaMont Jordan (fifth round price this year) were tough to beat. And they ended up with two solid backs, which is huge in a large league like this.

My team:

Plummer, Brees, K. Jones, M. Anderson (Bell was gone 30 picks into the draft), L. Johnson (a protect), M. Harrison, Roy Williams (Lions), Gates (a 13th round protect, as we don't have to play a TE, but inflate their scoring by about 50 percent), Moulds, Wilkins.

We also don't use defenses, but a better format where teams receive points based on how many points they score that week. If the active NFL team wins its game that week, they get their actual points scored is divided by five. If they lose, the actual score is divided by 10. This is huge because our scoring system is so modest that 40 points gets you a win about 80 percent of the time.

With this system, you want a team that scores a lot primarily and you'll gamble on whether they win. 8-8 teams with no defense are okay as long as they score a lot. I took three teams (which I've never done before): Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys.

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NFL Universe League Plays

Here's what I did. I've had success with this format in the past, winning the two leagues I've played (one mid-season and on league and one playoff league). My strategy with the regular-season league was to save the best for last and take advantage of matchups and injuries to try to time the market on marginal players. Of course, this is a common strategy. The art lies in picking the right players at the right time.

So, for Week 1 (this league has one flex position at RB, WR, or TE every week):

J. Harrington (Packers)
W. McGahee (Texans)
W. Parker (Titans)
I. Bruce (at Niners)
A. Bryant (Bengals)
J. McCareins (at Chiefs)
D. Branch (Raiders)
T. Heap (Colts)
D. Akers (at Falcons)
Redskins D (Bears)

I try to play mostly home teams. I want my kicker indoors whenever possible. I don't want to field too many scrubs, so there's a little balance with Akers, McGahee and Heap (though I like him more than most). McGahee is my one burn this week, but I like the matchup and am hoping for a huge day.

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Another Mock, Of Sorts

Actually, I was helping out an old college friend, Dave Belfield, who was kind enough to supply the name for my website. (I was just happy he didn't offer some obscure Gentle Giant reference, progressive rock fan that he is.)

It was a 10-team league with no funky scoring rules except point per reception (which isn't that funky, but it makes running backs even more valuable). You have to play a tight end. People were well-prepared and things moved very briskly. There were very few poor or even very questionable picks. So, this league was above average in terms of skill level.

I picked eighth. I'm working from memory here, but my picks in order were Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Nate Burleson, Tony Gonzalez, Donald Driver, Kevan Barlow, Tatum Bell, Larry Johnson, Lee Evans, Mewelde Moore, Jake Plummer, Steven Davis (DeShaun Foster went about three rounds earlier), Brandon Lloyd, Keary Colbert, Troy Williamson (Belfield loves fast Vikings rookies and would have gotten fleeced in the unlikely event Williamson does anything big early), Joey Harrington, Mike Nugent, Indianapolis Colts (there are some minus points when you give up more than 29 points).

I wished some better receivers fell to him. I liked Moulds over Evans and Evans goes first everywhere, even in point-per-catch leagues. But Moulds went first here, so I took Evans. Anderson went about two rounds before Bell. I missed J.J. Arrington and Cedric Benson by one pick in back-to-back middle rounds. But I like the upside here at RB a lot. Davis was a steal. But either Bell, Johnson or Moore will emerge as a fantasy difference maker before long.

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Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on September 5 - 11

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in
Jay Payton, OF, A's: He hit seven homers with 21 ribbies in August but is flying under the radar in many leagues, which still view him as a part-time player. He will play a lot, especially with Mark Kotsay again battling back woes.

Jose Contreras, P, White Sox: 3.45 ERA the last three weeks with 22 strikeouts and two walks in his last 28-plus innings. He may be available because of his terrible July (5.71 ERA, 1.53 walks/hits per inning). He gets two home starts this week (Royals, Angels).

Bench 'em

Keith Foulke, P, Red Sox: It's unclear if he'll close at all in 2005 with Mike Timlin pitching well. But even if he does, it's unlikely to happen until he proves he can pitch effectively. Foulke's velocity remains a bigger problem than in prior years.

Francisco Liriano, P, Twins: Scott Baker has already replaced deadbeat Joe Mays. Liriano's minor league stats this year are lights out (206 minor league Ks), but who does he start for? Not Kyle Lohse, who is 3.70 the last three weeks with two walks in his last 24 innings.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Esteban Loaiza, SP, Nationals: He’s been reliable and consistent most of the year, and now’s a good time to buy in with two home starts on tap. Loaiza has a tidy 2.63 ERA when working in the friendly confines of RFK Stadium this season.

Clint Barmes, SS, Rockies: His leg has healed and he’ll spend the rest of the year parked at the top of the Colorado order. The Rockies miss Jake Peavy at the beginning of the week in San Diego, then head to Coors for a weekend of home cooking.

Bench 'em

Jose Mesa, RP, Pirates: He looked like a closer on fumes during a messy August (7.27 ERA), and any chances he gets this week will come against the homer-happy Reds and Diamondbacks.

Ryan Klesko, 1B, Padres: Back problems kept him down during an irrelevant August (.200 average, just one homer), and home games at Petco Park don’t help much either. The Padres have six games in pitching-friendly parks this week, three at Petco and three at Dodger Stadium.

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