Wizard of Goz on the Fantasy Playoffs

Five Things not to do in the Quest for a Fantasy Football Playoff Spot

1. Do not make a lineup decision based on a Thanksgiving Day appearance. You
may get lucky but in the likely event that you don't, Sunday will be a long day with a short
roster.

2. Do not ever bench a steady performer for a flavor of the week (think Samkon
Gado).

3. Do not linger on live game feeds like its a lifeline. Last I knew, Fantasy Football
owners never scored a touchdown.

4. Do not dump players out of spite. Some leagues may not allow this. Those that do go
through owners like hot knives through butter.

5. Do not resort to praying, changing the name of your team or pulling your starting lineup out of a hat.

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Power Rankings Debate

Breakfast Table co-author Scott Pianowski e-mailed me today backstage:

"I swear I don't mean this with any malice, but how can the Jets be ranked 16th (in the Stat Power Index)?"

Here's my response:

They're obviously helped greatly by penalties, which I'm always on the fence about. But they're 20th in YPA Net, which is the most important measure. And they're only 10 index points ahead of the 20th team, which is pretty insignificant. (So 16 may not be as far off as it appears.) Remember, too, that the Index doesn't rate a team today as much as it rates a team for the season to date. So injuries don't influence the standings until they influence the stats (and I like it that way because we're always just guessing with injury impact; look at the Eagles a couple of years ago after they lost McNabb).

Most important to note: the Index never looks forward (pure guesswork), but only looks back on the assumption that what has happened is the best predictor of what will happen.

I think the Index is a good way to how large teams' problems are. Last year, the Index had teams like the Redskins, Bucs and Panthers rated on borderline playoff teams. There wasn't too much that needed to be done to get these teams better.

Maybe the Jets aren't as far away from contending as their records suggests. Maybe they're baseline is a little higher. They pass defense is holding up their YPA and PPA to quasi-respectable levels. Any team that is mediocre in those categories has hope if they make a couple of adjustments that swing things on even one side of the ball.

Really, would you be shocked if the Jets beat the Bears if they were to play? I wouldn't be. Teams in the top third generally have one strong unit and no weak one. In the middle third, they have one strong unit (the Jets defense is above average, I think; the Panthers had 200 yards last week and the Jets were set to tie the game late in the third quarter). Teams in the bottom third generally have no strengths.

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YPC Leaders/Trailers - Week 10

Yards Per Completion - Offense

1 Panthers 13.55
2 Steelers 13.28
3 Giants 12.91
4 Raiders 12.54
5 Cowboys 12.07
6 Patriots 11.99
7 Chargers 11.53
8 Eagles 11.52
9 Jaguars 11.40
10 Saints 11.33
11 Redskins 11.30
12 Chiefs 11.20
13 Colts 11.10
14 Seahawks 11.04
15 Rams 11.02
16 Broncos 10.97
17 Browns 10.93
18 Bengals 10.77
19 Dolphins 10.76
20 Falcons 10.74
21 Cardinals 10.60
22 Packers 10.25
23 Jets 9.99
24 Vikings 9.96
25 Titans 9.66
26 Bucs 9.53
27 Lions 9.09
28 Bears 8.88
29 Niners 8.75
30 Ravens 8.72
31 Bills 8.20
32 Texans 7.13

Yards Per Completion - Defense

1 Colts 8.83
2 Bears 8.90
3 Bengals 9.81
4 Jaguars 9.83
5 Jets 9.89
6 Ravens 9.91
7 Steelers 9.92
8 Browns 10.13
9 Dolphins 10.14
10 Lions 10.20
11 Giants 10.31
12 Bills 10.37
13 Falcons 10.40
14 Redskins 10.54
15 Seahawks 10.55
16 Chargers 10.65
17 Raiders 10.68
18 Saints 10.79
19 Panthers 10.91
20 Packers 10.95
21 Cowboys 10.98
22 Bucs 11.01
23 Vikings 11.09
24 Chiefs 11.30
25 Rams 11.32
26 Titans 11.35
27 Broncos 11.44
28 Texans 11.56
29 Eagles 11.64
30 Cardinals 11.71
31 Niners 12.33
32 Patriots 13.54

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Goz's Enemies List

(From contributor John Gozzi. Of these guys, I still like K. Jones and Green, but Goz is frustrated by an ill-timed drop there in light of the firewords in San Diego last week.)

Mid-season arch enemies

Players non grata

Sons of biscuits that hit me where it hurts

1. Trent Green, cut the bum two years in a row and then he rains 300 yard games
2. Julius Jones , the fact that I am in contention still with him on my team is a miracle
3. Kevin Jones, his picture is under mediocrity in the fantasy football sports dictionary
4. Andre Johnson, talk about lousy- then hurt
5. Reggie Wayne, speed and hands but no balls

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Yard Per Completion Through Week 8

Here, again, are current leaders in yards per completion gained (first) and allowed:

Yards Per Completion Offense (League Average: 10.74)

Team YPC O
1 Steelers 13.96
2 Raiders 13.28
3 Panthers 13.09
4 Giants 12.75
5 Patriots 12.28
6 Cowboys 12.07
7 Saints 11.56
8 Chiefs 11.48
9 Redskins 11.47
10 Jaguars 11.42
11 Chargers 11.33
12 Eagles 11.31
13 Dolphins 11.05
14 Colts 11.02
15 Rams 11.02
16 Broncos 10.97
17 Seahawks 10.95
18 Falcons 10.92
19 Bengals 10.62
20 Cardinals 10.61
21 Browns 10.35
22 Packers 10.26
23 Vikings 10.15
24 Jets 9.91
25 Bucs 9.62
26 Titans 9.39
27 Lions 9.28
28 Ravens 9.03
29 Niners 8.97
30 Bears 8.66
31 Bills 8.20
32 Texans 6.77

Yard Per Completion (Defense)

Team YPC D
1 Colts 8.59
2 Ravens 8.85
3 Jets 9.37
4 Bears 9.53
5 Browns 9.84
6 Steelers 9.95
7 Redskins 9.99
8 Jaguars 10.06
9 Dolphins 10.17
10 Bucs 10.17
11 Bengals 10.28
12 Bills 10.37
13 Lions 10.44
14 Giants 10.52
15 Seahawks 10.54
16 Falcons 10.63
17 Chargers 10.66
18 Saints 10.77
19 Raiders 10.87
20 Titans 10.89
21 Cowboys 10.98
22 Cardinals 11.22
23 Panthers 11.23
24 Packers 11.26
25 Rams 11.32
26 Broncos 11.44
27 Texans 11.60
28 Vikings 11.70
29 Eagles 11.85
30 Niners 12.17
31 Chiefs 12.25
32 Patriots 14.04

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