Power Rankings Debate

Breakfast Table co-author Scott Pianowski e-mailed me today backstage:

"I swear I don't mean this with any malice, but how can the Jets be ranked 16th (in the Stat Power Index)?"

Here's my response:

They're obviously helped greatly by penalties, which I'm always on the fence about. But they're 20th in YPA Net, which is the most important measure. And they're only 10 index points ahead of the 20th team, which is pretty insignificant. (So 16 may not be as far off as it appears.) Remember, too, that the Index doesn't rate a team today as much as it rates a team for the season to date. So injuries don't influence the standings until they influence the stats (and I like it that way because we're always just guessing with injury impact; look at the Eagles a couple of years ago after they lost McNabb).

Most important to note: the Index never looks forward (pure guesswork), but only looks back on the assumption that what has happened is the best predictor of what will happen.

I think the Index is a good way to how large teams' problems are. Last year, the Index had teams like the Redskins, Bucs and Panthers rated on borderline playoff teams. There wasn't too much that needed to be done to get these teams better.

Maybe the Jets aren't as far away from contending as their records suggests. Maybe they're baseline is a little higher. They pass defense is holding up their YPA and PPA to quasi-respectable levels. Any team that is mediocre in those categories has hope if they make a couple of adjustments that swing things on even one side of the ball.

Really, would you be shocked if the Jets beat the Bears if they were to play? I wouldn't be. Teams in the top third generally have one strong unit and no weak one. In the middle third, they have one strong unit (the Jets defense is above average, I think; the Panthers had 200 yards last week and the Jets were set to tie the game late in the third quarter). Teams in the bottom third generally have no strengths.