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Sunday, August 20, 2006
Further Review Post: Battle of the NFL Power Ratings
Interceptions vs. Fumbles as a Winning Stat
NFL stat maestro Bud Goode said long ago that interceptions are three times more costly than lost fumbles and that lumping lost fumbles with interceptions as "turnovers" made as much sense as lumping doubles and homers together under "hits" in baseball. Of course, this is incredibly counterintuitive. Goode never came up for a reason for the discrepancy. But he speculates that lost fumbles are actually a "power" stat because teams that win more run more in the second half and thus, presumably, fumble more. More important, he said, the conclusion is consistently supported through regression analysis. Now, I'm no statistician. But I do know my way around a scatterplot. I understand the importance of correlation. But outliers can distort correlation coefficients. For simplicity's sake, let's look at net interceptions, which we track in our Stat Power Index, largely inspired by the work of Mr. Goode, and net fumbles. We'll examine the 10 best and worst teams in each net category and compare records. If lost fumbles are so much less meaningful than interceptions, we should see a poorer correlation to success and failure as reflected in the won-loss records of the leaders and trailers in each group. Because one year can distort, we'll look at 2004, too. First 2005. The 10 best teams in net fumbles (recovered vs. lost) had a .642 winning percentage. The 10 worst, .422. In net interceptions, the 10 best teams last year had a .675 winning percentage, the 10 worst, .324. Advantage net interceptions, but that does not seem to correspond to a 3-to-1 ratio in relative importance in favor of interceptions. I understand that Mr. Goode wasn't tracking the net stat, but rather each specific instance of a lost fumble or interception in the context of a game. Still, he nets other stats, such as YPA, so why not do the same with lost fumbles and picks? Was 2005 an outlier year? In 2004, the 10 best teams in net fumbles had a .585 winning percentage, the 10 best in net picks .675. That's much more significant on the winning side. But net picks did not do as good a job in predicting losers as in 2005, with the trailers in net fumbles coming in at .375 and trailers in net picks actually having more success with a winning percentage of .400. I was shocked to find that 6 of the 11 teams that at least tied for the top 10 spots in net fumbles repeated the feat in 2005 (when two teams again tied for 10th place). Only four teams that led in net picks in 2004 repeated the feat in 2005. I would have guessed that lost fumbles were more a product of luck than interceptions. But that conclusion is not supported by this small data set. On the other hand, the Saints and Jets were tied for first and third in net fumbles in 2004 (plus-10 and plus-9, respectively), but LAST in 2005 (-10 and -12, respectively). A swing of 20 turnovers can cause a radical swing in won-loss record. Giants fans should be wary, as they led the NFL last year in the stat, at plus-12.
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Saturday, August 12, 2006
Weekly Fantasy Touts: August 21-27
By Michael Salfino AMERICAN LEAGUE Put 'em in
Coco Crisp, OF, Red Sox: It's been a season of stops and starts for Crisp, who has been hurt by being placed at the bottom of the Boston lineup. But Crisp is running enough to be a decent fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.
Craig Monroe, OF, Tigers: He's been on fire and is now cemented at the top of the lineup given the injury to Placido Polanco, who is out indefinitely. The pop has been there all year (now slugging .500 after a batting-average surge).
Bench 'em
Joe Saunders, P, Angels: The latest young gun with a tired wing.
Don't count on the two starts tentatively scheduled for Saunders, who is likely to get extra rest. If he's not rested, pencil him in for a couple rockings.
Jonny Gomes, OF, Devil Rays: He's needed shoulder surgery for months and is now saying he'll have it now only if he can return by spring training. What good does putting it off do? Either way, he's not hitting.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Jake Peavy, P, Padres: He just NOW got his contact lenses he's been expecting since March? Ever hear of Fed Ex? He says he now can finally see the catcher's signs. I'm not making this up.
Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies: Still more a name than a fantasy asset. But he's at least getting his average back up over .300, though the power is likely gone for good.
Bench 'em
Barry Bonds, OF, Giants: He's always hurt and just not productive enough to even mix and match with the decent reserves available in mixed leagues.
Jose Vidro, 2B, Nationals: Yes, he's coming off the disabled list. But he no longer has even middling power and doesn't run at all.
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Saturday, August 05, 2006
Weekly Fantasy Touts: August 6 - 12
By Michael Salfino AMERICAN LEAGUE Put 'em in
Javy Lopez, C, Red Sox: He's not likely to hit much better than the injured Jason Varitek (knee surgery), but anyone can get hot for two months and he's in a great lineup.
Cory Lidle, P, Yankees: Gets two starts this week after a stellar debut in 120 degrees of heat index. Everything is seeming to roll the Yankees way right now, so get on board the bandwagon where you can.
Bench 'em
Matt Garza, P, Twins: The Twins are letting him rot in Rochester in favor of minor-league journeyman Mike Smith. They should look towards the Tigers and push young talent more quickly into prominent roles.
Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers: Another second-half fold for Stammerin' Hank (sub-.300 slugging percentage since the All-Star break).
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Matt Murton, OF, Cubs: The power numbers are disappointing, but the at bats should come furiously now that the Cubs are in 2007-mode. Coming off a streak of 15 ribbies in 16 games.
Byung-Hyun Kim, P, Rockies: Coors has mysteriously become the league's best pitcher's park. Kim is on the road this week, but gets two starts and has fired gems his last two outings.
Bench 'em
Jeff Kent, 2B, Dodgers: The oblique strain isn't getting better. Where does he play when he returns, given the acquisition of Julio Lugo, a far superior defender and arguably a better offensive force now, too?
Bronson Arroyo, P, Reds: His last outing was on three-day's rest. That's not going to reverse the poor trend-line of late, as he's quickly regressed to his Red Sox form.
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