Wizard of Goz on Fantasy Hoops

Reader/RotoAction contributer John Gozzi has some thought on fantasy basketball (Mike must confess to not following basketball closely since the Knicks traded Patrick Ewing).

NBA Fantasy- The hidden gem

So the game sucks, it's boring, the refs stink, and the players cannot shoot or play defense. On the bright side an NBA boxscore is a work of art. Highly informative , easy to read and brutally honest. Don't go to a game all season, just tune in to ESPN coverage and grab a magazine or cheat sheet and pick a team. Yahoo offers free leagues, private or public. The drafts can be online or offline-stakes or no stakes.

Top five sleepers- based on fifth round or later in a typical ten team league
*Josh Smith, Atlanta: athleticism is off the charts
*J.R Smith, Hornets: not old enough to drink but can fill up the hoop
*Andre Igoudalla, Sixers: Philly stallion
*Kirk Hinrich, Chicago: far from gun-shy leader of the baby Bulls
*Al Jefferson, Boston: the opportunity is there

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Yards Per Completion Through Week 7

In honor of Dr. Z. (who hates YPA because of all the four-yard passes on third and six). Here are the yards per COMPLETION leaders and trailers. NFL Average is currently 10.70. Gained first, then allowed (sorry for the columns being screwy):

YPC Offense

1 Steelers 15.22
2 Raiders 13.23
3 Giants 13.03
4 Panthers 12.45
5 Cowboys 12.27
6 Patriots 12.23
7 Redskins 12.07
8 Saints 11.94
9 Chiefs 11.77
10 Jaguars 11.41
11 Dolphins 11.25
12 Colts 11.02
13 Chargers 10.97
14 Seahawks 10.95
15 Falcons 10.92
16 Cardinals 10.79
17 Rams 10.76
18 Bengals 10.70
19 Eagles 10.51
20 Broncos 10.41
21 Packers 10.19
22 Vikings 10.09
23 Browns 9.97
24 Jets 9.91
25 Titans 9.74
26 Lions 9.56
27 Bucs 9.36
28 Niners 9.23
29 Ravens 8.87
30 Bears 7.90
31 Bills 7.42
32 Texans 6.15

YPC Defense

1 Colts 8.57
2 Bears 9.01
3 Jets 9.37
4 Jaguars 9.49
5 Ravens 9.65
6 Browns 9.69
7 Steelers 9.90
8 Redskins 9.95
9 Bills 10.05
10 Lions 10.09
11 Bengals 10.20
12 Dolphins 10.42
13 Bucs 10.49
14 Titans 10.54
15 Seahawks 10.54
16 Broncos 10.59
17 Falcons 10.63
18 Chargers 10.70
19 Vikings 10.86
20 Giants 10.89
21 Saints 10.94
22 Cowboys 11.25
23 Panthers 11.29
24 Rams 11.31
25 Cardinals 11.32
26 Texans 11.34
27 Eagles 11.43
28 Packers 11.50
29 Raiders 11.70
30 Chiefs 12.08
31 Niners 12.32
32 Patriots 14.40

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Word Series Pick

We're 4-2 thus far in the postseason picking series based on net OPS (on base plus slugging percentage).

This is a very tough series. Neither team can hit. The Astros have very slightly better quality at the top of the rotation, but Freddy Garcia appears to be the White Sox fourth starter and he badly outclasses Brandon Backe. In fact, I don't understand why Garcia doesn't start game three. If this series goes seven games, I'd want Garcia pitching it before Jon Garland. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.

Jose Contreres is pitching as well as anyone right now, so that Game 1 matchup should be a classic. Buerhle and Pettitte is another even matchup. But the Astros get the edge with Roy Oswalt against Garland, as Oswalt is in a differnt class of pitcher. But that advantage for Houston is overwhelmed by the edge the White Sox have with Garcia over Backe.

The offensive struggles of both teams all season need to be viewed in the context of their home parks, which are hitter-friendly. So these lineups are even worse than they appear when looking at the raw stats, which are pretty bad. The White Sox slug well but don't get on base, as only two hitters are over .350 in OBP, Paul Konerko and Scott Podsednik, but Podsednik has struggled since the all-star break. Four Sox, Juan Uribe, Joe Crede, Carl Everett and A.J. Pierzynski, have OBPs below .310. Konerko is solid, but should be pitched around. The next best hitter is Tad Iguchi. (Guillen cracked me up when he said that Iguchi would hit 30 homers if he wasn't batting No. 2, which raises the obvious question, which, of course, went unasked, "Then why are you batting him No. 2, genius?")

The Astros appear a little more solid to me mainly because they have two premium guys in the lineup in Morgan Ensberg, who really surprised me this year, and Lance Berkman. Other Astros like Craig Biggio and Jason Lane have pretty significant home/road splits (where they hit much worse on the road, especially Biggio), but that's not much of a factor here because both parks are a hitting paradise, especially to righty power hitters.

Some people I respect, especially the guys at Baseball Prospectus, really like the Sox pen. I have my doubts. I know that Cliff Politte really shined this year in a (too) limited role, but why did his activity decline so dramatically after the break? Fatigue? Injury? There was appreciable decline in the numbers across the board and he gave up six homers after the break, too. Bobby Jenks pitched well but wasn't tested in the ALCS because of all the complete games. Bobby Jenks is a great story and had a second half very comparable to Brandon Lidge. But will Jenks be able to harness his control (which had been a problem during his minor league career) when the crowd is in an October tizzy? There's more risk with Jenks.

The Astros don't have a lefty in the pen and that's a problem against the White Sox. The Sox have lefties Damaso Marte (who was terrible during the regular season) and converted starter Neal Cotts, who was very good throughout 2005.

Both benches are bad, but the White Sox have perhaps the worst bench of any World Series team in memory. It gets a little better for them when Carl Everett can come off the bench in the NL, but their lack of depth is more likely to be exposed in games where the pitchers hit. If the games in Houston go into extra innings, which you can definitely see happening at least once or twice, it's advantage Astros.

I'm a sucker for the storyline here, which is 1917 right after 1918 last year with the Red Sox. Joe Jackson right after Babe Ruth. The Black Sox right after the Bambino. It's interesting to note how much of the story with the Black Sox is open to interpretation. Was Jackson in on it? Did he confess? Did baseball know about it before the Series even started (chosing to cover it up)? Was the Series fixed or just an odd game or two (and is that even a material distinction)? There may be some answers in a new book, Burying the Black Sox, but the author did not distinguish himself on Olbermann's show last night.

Net OPS give a slight edge to the White Sox. I think the homefield advantage is significant (and it's so silly that it gets decided by the stupid All Star game). White Sox in 6.

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Bush League Interception Bullying

REFRESH THIS PAGE EACH VISIT.

Pianow and I were talking backstage after Marc Bulger was blasted while in the process of getting into the fetal position after an interception on Monday Night. The resulting shoulder injury turned a RamS rout into a Colts rout and basically ended St. Louis' season. Z. had something about it too on SI.com. My feeling is that guys hunting and killing the QB on interception has to be stopped. It's thuggery that's been going on for a while but hasn't always been in vogue. I was telling Scott that I can't even imagine some defender hunting down Joe Namath to blast him after a pick (and he certainly threw enough of them). All these rules to protect teams from losing their QB unnecessarily and you allow that type of nonsense. Teams view it as a free shot. Rarely if ever is it consequential in terms of the runback. END OF POST.

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NFL Yards Per Completion Through Week 6

In this week's Breakfast Table (see link on left because blogger.com doesn't make linking easy), Scott Pianowski speculated that Steve McNair and the Titans were dumping it off too much in light of Erron Kinney's catches. Turns out he was right (as usual), as the Titans are 25th in Yards Per Completion, which rarely gets mentioned anywhere. That Steelers number is incredible and if memory serves Eli's current number is better than Peyton's last year. Want more perspective? The single-season leader in the modern era is Cincy's Greg Cook, whose career lasted only a year due to injury, at 17.8 in 1969. Joe Namath registered a 17.5 in 1972. After that, you have a bunch of 14s and 15s.

On the defensive side of the ball, look who's last in the NFL: the world champion Patriots. There is less variation on the defensive numbers, which suggests to me that Yards Per Completion is more a function of the offense, maybe similar to how batting average on balls put in play is more a function of the batter and not the pitcher. The NFL average is 10.79. Current season rankings follow.

Offensive YPC:

Steelers 16.08
Giants 14.10
Raiders 13.20
Cowboys 12.66
Panthers 12.45
Patriots 12.23
Saints 11.96
Jaguars 11.41
Chiefs 11.31
Eagles 11.29
Redskins 11.29
Seahawks 11.22
Falcons 11.12
Colts 11.02
Cardinals 10.87
Chargers 10.80
Bengals 10.79
Rams 10.79
Dolphins 10.68
Browns 10.37
Broncos 10.35
Jets 10.26
Packers 9.92
Vikings 9.88
Titans 9.71
Lions 9.56
Niners 9.51
Bucs 9.36
Ravens 9.10
Bears 7.72
Bills 7.59
Texans 6.54

Defensive YPC

Colts 8.91
Bears 9.30
Bills 9.33
Jets 9.35
Jaguars 9.49
Dolphins 9.71
Browns 9.72
Ravens 9.80
Steelers 9.87
Redskins 10.24
Bengals 10.27
Bucs 10.49
Lions 10.52
Titans 10.61
Vikings 10.69
Seahawks 10.78
Broncos 10.81
Giants 10.90
Saints 11.02
Falcons 11.04
Rams 11.24
Panthers 11.29
Eagles 11.36
Texans 11.40
Chargers 11.59
Packers 11.61
Cowboys 11.66
Chiefs 11.68
Cardinals 11.75
Niners 11.77
Raiders 12.68
Patriots 14.40
And here is the rest of it.

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Angels vs. White Sox

The Angels are really screwed by MLB not wanting to play two games on Wednesday (which isn't a big deal in this world of 700 channels). Forcing them to play Sunday night in New York, Monday afternoon in Anaheim and Tuesday night in Chicago is just ridiculous.

It looks like Bartolo Colon isn't going to be back after coming out with shoulder pain in the biggest start of his life. That really thins out the Angels staff, thrusting Paul Byrd (the Game 1 starter) and Jarrod Washburn (who missed his turn against the Yanks due to illness) into prominent roles. The best that can be said about Byrd is that he doesn't beat himself. Kelvim Escobar might be able to make as start, but the Angels are better off leaving him in relief as there's no way he'd be able to pitch more than five innings after missing most of the year with arm trouble.

The White Sox are sitting pretty with their rotation. Jose Contreras is red hot and gets another home start. Mark Buehrle goes in Game 2 versus Washburn, who is a proven mediocrity. That's a big advantage to the White Sox. Chicago still has Freddy Garcia and Jon Garland for Games 3 and 4. So, huge starting advantage for Anaheim.

Chicago's starters need to go far into games becasue the bullpen is unproven. But Bobby Jenks stepped up against Boston, so that's one big pelt on his wall. Getting to Jenks is the bigger problem, though I'm confident in Cliff Politte. The White Sox could use a vintage Damaso Marte, but he's been awful all year and allowed three Red Sox to get on base without recording an out. Not having a reliable lefty against the Angels is a problem. Yes, Chicago has Neal Cotts, who allowed only one homer in 60 innings this year. But Cotts only faced one batter versus Boston. So Cotts is green, which may cause Guillen to make a "veteran" mistake and rely on Marte.

Neither team has much of an offense. The Angels get the advantage in the pen, of course, though K-Rod has lost zip on his fastball and is mostly a breaking ball pitcher now. As a result, he allows too many baserunner because hitters will put that pitch in play when they see it time after time.

Net OPS gives a significant edge to the White Sox. The circumstances all favor the White Sox. It would be great to have a team win its first series since 1917 a year after a team snapped its 1918 streak. White Sox in 6.

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Astros vs. Cardinals

We were 3-for-4 in picking the divisional round based largely on Net OPS, losing only the pick of Yanks over Angels in five.

Speaking of the Yankees, what was Joe Torre thinking in letting Mike Mussina give up five runs in under three innings last night? He had a sufficiently rested Randy Johnson. He had the lead in the game and all of the series momentum. Mussina is battling arm trouble which resulted in a recent, lengthy DL trip. But he gives up the lead and then is allowed to surrender two more runs, which proved decisive. That's just terrbile managing from a guy who rides Mariano Rivera for two innings in April games against Tampa Bay.

The Yanks were also burned by their laid-back approach to that last game in Fenway. If they won, they would have secured homefield advantage in Round 1. But they mailed it in and ended up in Anaheim in Game 5. There is no way on earth that Ervin Santana would have survived that bout of wildness in the Bronx. But teams never take homefield seriously. If they're in the playoffs anyway, they couldn't care less, in all sports.

Now, back the NL and the NLCS matchup we predicted. The Cardinals had an easy time with the Padres, but take a big step up in weight class vesus Houston, which has a great staff. The Astros don't have a championship-caliber offense, especially when you adjust their stats down for park factors. But the have three Cy Young-level starters and a lights-out closer. So, they are not a team you want to see in a short series. Houston has to get production out of Morgan Ensberg if the Cardinals use the same approach as the Braves in pitching to Lance Berkman (which is to say, NOT pitching to him).

The Cardinals have okay starters (when you include Chris Carpenter, who will likely win the Cy Young award). Jason Ishringhausen is not the guy you want to pulling your bacon out of the fire in the ninth inning. But he's all they have. Where St. Louis shines is on offense, even minus Scott Rolen and with Jim Edmonds in decline. Reggie Sanders has been dynamite. And they have the best hitter on the planet in Albert Pujols.

The Cardinals are overrated. But they have the advantage of getting the extra home game and I think that will end up being decisive. OPS Net says Cards by a hair. I agree. Cardinals in 7.

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Yanks vs. Angels

Net OPS says the Yanks are the second-best team in baseball (behind the Indians). The stat doesn't like the Angels. In fact, it says the Rangers are better. That strikes me as a strike against Net OPS.

The Angels are a tougher matchup in a short series than their stats indicate because the off days allow them to really ride that unbelieable bullpen.

As an aside, let me say that it's completely ridiculous to look at head-to-head stats. The sample size of 10 games is silly small. And the games were spread too far apart. But my morning paper not only focuses on them but doesn't even include the full-season stats. What a waste. So I have to go from window to window here, which is a pain.

Anaheim's lineup is anemic. There's no power outside of Guerrero. Garret Anderson you say? Not since his arthitic condition sapped his slugging. When Bengie Molina is batting fifth, you better be winning with pitching. (And I know Molina had a good roto year, heck, even a good real year. But you can't be serious with him batting fifth in the AL.)

The Yankees starters are very shaky. No one knows if Mussina is healthy. Randy Johnson will likely dominate, although the Angels don't strikeout a lot and can be pesky to power pitchers. After that, it's really scary. Chien-Ming Wang goes Game 2 and Wang throws hard but doesn't miss enough bats. And he wilted in Fenway with all of those walks. But the Red Sox series boxed them in, as Johnson threw Saturday and needs him full rest. I do not believe in Shawn Chacon at all, but he can matchup against Jarrod Washburn (meaning they'll both be lucky to last six innings).

Now this is where things swing the Angels way. You know all about K-Rod (who hasn't been nearly as dominating since returning from his forearm trouble). Shields is great. Donnelly is very capable. But the two best arms in the pen might be guys who didn't pitch there most of the year: Kelvim Escobar and Ervin Santana (3.83 ERA since the break as a starter, so knock about a run off that as a reliever and boost the K-rate by about 30 percent). That's a pretty strong bridge to Shields and Rodriguez. Who are the Yanks bridge relievers? Aaron Small? Proctor? Please. In the late innings, the Yanks are just as good, with the underrated Tom Gordon and, of course, Rivera.

A-Rod, Matsui, Sheffield.... That's how the Yanks need to win this series. Will they get the better of the Angels relievers in the mid-to-late innings? Remember, after them you still have Jason Giambi and Jeter, which is pretty damn good. Offensively, the Angels are nickel and dime and Big Vlad. I can't see that being enough. Yanks in Five.

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White Sox vs. Red Sox

It's great that the Red Sox have to play a cursed team. Call it the Shoeless Joe curse, as the Pale Hose have not won a World Series since the Black Sox Scandal.

I hate the way the rotation is lining up for Boston. Matt Clement has been shot since he took a liner in the head a couple months back. His Game 1 mound opponent is Jose Contreras, who has been dominant in the second half. I guess Boston fans can hope that Contreras wilts under the pressure, but I always felt that was overstated when he was in the Bronx. There has to be more pressure pitching for Castro than for Steinbrenner, don't you think? I mean, George can't throw your family in prison, can he?

Wells vs. Buerhle can go either way in Game 2. The offenses will decide that one. That means, the Red Sox win because the White Sox aren't in the same offensive class. Game 3 is the key to the series. Wakefield was so bad in the big spot against the Yankees. Jon Garland has been a revelation in '04 and, yes, he's been a little lucky. But he's average-to-good. Who do the White Sox start in Game 4? Why isn't Freddy Garcia listed? He was great in his last start and claims to be healthy. I'm assuming the AP made a mistake. Garcia actually should start Game 3.

Both teams have trouble in the pen. I don't believe in Mike Timlin in a big spot. Papelbon is untested in the playoffs. But that's nothing compared to the White Sox, who have very raw Bobby Jenks, who can fire it up there at 100 mph. Dustin Hermanson is the putative closer, but he's been fighting back problems all summer.

Net OPS has this matchup basically even, with a so slight edge to the White Sox. These teams are evenly matched. I don't like Ozzie Guillen's game management and he could cost them with stupid baserunning and other questionable decisions like putting Garland ahead of Garcia in the playoff rotation. Can Schilling and Wakefield come through after Clement spits the bit in Game 1? I don't think so. White Sox in five.

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Cards vs. Padres

I feel sorry for St. Louis and their fans because you just don't want to play a team like the Padres in the playoffs. A win for St. Louis is ho-hum and a loss would be the talk of the baseball world.

How about Pedro Astacio starting Game 2? I thought the Rangers made a mistake releasing him because his strikeout/walks were very solid despite the bad ERA in the early going. In August and September, he's rewarded the Padres with one quality start after another. Most people view his matchup against Mark Mulder as the reason why San Diego can't win the series. But Mulder was blasted two starts ago by Milwaukee and gave up seven walks in his final four-inning tune up. Something is wrong there.

Jake Peavy and Chris Carpenter is going to be a good Game 1 matchup. I like Peavy's intensity, though it rubs many the wrong way. And I've always been a Carpenter fan, even through all the arm trouble. The Padres offense isn't as bad as the numbers indicate because they play in an extreme pitchers park. Of course, that means the pitching (mediocre) is worse than it appears. How does Trevor Hoffman get people out with that junk? Changing speeds is key. But I always expect change-up closers to go Keith Foulke on us.

Net OPS calls this for easily for the Cards, who are third best in baseball in that category. I think it's going to go five games just because teams that people argue don't belong in the postseason seem to surprise a lot. I'm thinking of those old Twins teams and the 1973 Mets, who vanquished the Big Red Machine when it was in all its glory. In the end, though, the Cardinals offensive will carry the way led by the ridiculous Albert Pujols.

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Braves vs. Astros

Net OPS slightly favors the Astros. But I think this is an easy win for the Astros. Clemens has gotten all the ink, but Andy Pettitte has pitched at least as well. Roy Oswalt was less lucky on balls put in play and gives the Astros a third Cy Young-caliber pitcher.

Compare that front three to the Braves, who have John Smoltz and his barking shoulder, the far-from-dominate Tim Hudson and the very lucky Jorge Sosa. So, the Astros staff is miles better.

The Braves had a much better offense during the regular season. I don't put much stock in Andrew Jones' slump down the stretch. He'll be fine. But Jeff Francoeur never had the underlying stats to support his production (56 Ks, 11 BBs in 256 ABs). So his slump isn't surprising. The Astros need Morgan Ensberg and Lance Berkman to carry them. Expect Berkman to lead the way.

How on earth did Lidge give up 57 hits in 69 innings while striking out 102 batters? Glad to see the Mets let Dan Wheeler get away, only to see him emerge as one of the league's best middle relievers. Speaking of bullpen bargains, how did Kyle Farnsworth get underneath the radar last offseason? He's had years like this before. Farnsworth was lights out in September but the rest of the Braves pen is questionable.

The Braves finished 29-28 since August 1. The Astros came back from 15 games under to win 89 games. Astros in four.

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Baseball's Battle of the Stats

I enjoy Baseball Prospectus and think they do a really good job at pushing the envelope by challenging conventional wisdom.

However, the one frustrating thing about their fine work is that it's not easy to explain to people who are not stat and math savvy. When doing the baseball column, I used Net OPS as a way to convey to readers which teams are playing better or worse than W-L records indicate. I thought it worked nicely. When I told my friends there, they were sour on the idea on OPS as a stat.

I'm reminded of my friend Gary who often likes a group until they get popular and then he's off them and on to something else. I think there's a little of that going on here. We need the stat people, the economists, to strive for perfection. But reporters need stats that work while being easily understood (my clients have no space for footnotes). While I agree that it's likely that their "Third Order Pythaganport" standing might spot outliers with slightly greater accuracy, try telling your dad and his friends about it at the local watering hole. On-base plus slugging percentage is mainstream now. And everyone understands the simple concept of subtracting what a team's pitchers allow from what the hitters gain. So, I wondered, how much different would the almost-end-of-season BP third-order pythag standings be from how the teams generally rank in Net OPS?

Again, BP actually recalculates a win total to decimal points. I have not figured out a way to convert net-OPS to a W-L record because I don't care about that (okay, I'm not smart enough). I'm just looking for a quick, simple way to eyeball who should have done better and who should have done worse. This isn't usefull just for slamming or glorifying managers, but for figuring out how much a team needs to improve in the offseason.

So, without further ado, the BP Third Order Pythag standings through Friday followed by the net OPS standings, with the net and win totals in parentheses (the net OPS number seem ridiculously small, but .1 translates to 100 points of OPS, which we all understand to be significant):

TO Pythag AL East:

Yankees (93 wins)
Red Sox (91)
Blue Jays (80)
Orioles (80)
Devil Rays (72)

Net OPS AL East:

Yankees (.053)
Red Sox (.037)
O's (.008)
Blue Jays (-.004)
Devil Rays (-.057)

TO Pythag AL Central

Indians (97)
White Sox (85)
Twins (83)
Tigers (77)
Royals (60)

Net OPS AL Central

Indians (.1, major league best)
White Sox (.039)
Twins (-.002)
Tigers (-.017)
Royals (-.11)

TO Pythag AL West

A's (91)
Angels (87)
Rangers (79)
Mariners (69)

Net OPS AL West

A's (.044)
Rangers (.029)
Angels (.019)
Mariners (-.044)

TO Pythag NL East

Phillies (88)
Mets (88)
Braves (85)
Marlins (80)
Nationals (74)

Net OPS NL East

Braves (.030)
Mets (.030)
Phillies (.023)
Marlins (.006)
National (-.019)

TO Pythag NL Central

Cardinals (90)
Astros (87)
Cubs (84)
Brewers (82)
Reds (73)
Pirates (71)

Net OPS NL Central

Cardinals (.045)
Cubs (.034)
Astros (.032)
Brewers (.024)
Reds (-.049)
Pirates (-.5)

TO Pythag NL West

Padres (75)
Dodgers (69)
Diamondbacks (69)
Giants (67)
Rockies (62)

Net OPS NL West

Padres (-.017)
Dodgers (-.033)
Giants (-.038)
Diamondbacks (-.045)
Rockies (-.076)

Summary: Pretty significant disagreements only on three teams: Twins (Pythag says they're better), Rangers (net OPS says they're better) and Braves (net OPS says they're better). Maybe this is where the translations come in. I obviously haven't recalculated the OPS based on strength of schedule and home parks. I don't think that's a big deal when you're focusing on division records. Plus it's too ethereal. (Okay, I'm not smart enough.)

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