Yanks vs. Angels

Net OPS says the Yanks are the second-best team in baseball (behind the Indians). The stat doesn't like the Angels. In fact, it says the Rangers are better. That strikes me as a strike against Net OPS.

The Angels are a tougher matchup in a short series than their stats indicate because the off days allow them to really ride that unbelieable bullpen.

As an aside, let me say that it's completely ridiculous to look at head-to-head stats. The sample size of 10 games is silly small. And the games were spread too far apart. But my morning paper not only focuses on them but doesn't even include the full-season stats. What a waste. So I have to go from window to window here, which is a pain.

Anaheim's lineup is anemic. There's no power outside of Guerrero. Garret Anderson you say? Not since his arthitic condition sapped his slugging. When Bengie Molina is batting fifth, you better be winning with pitching. (And I know Molina had a good roto year, heck, even a good real year. But you can't be serious with him batting fifth in the AL.)

The Yankees starters are very shaky. No one knows if Mussina is healthy. Randy Johnson will likely dominate, although the Angels don't strikeout a lot and can be pesky to power pitchers. After that, it's really scary. Chien-Ming Wang goes Game 2 and Wang throws hard but doesn't miss enough bats. And he wilted in Fenway with all of those walks. But the Red Sox series boxed them in, as Johnson threw Saturday and needs him full rest. I do not believe in Shawn Chacon at all, but he can matchup against Jarrod Washburn (meaning they'll both be lucky to last six innings).

Now this is where things swing the Angels way. You know all about K-Rod (who hasn't been nearly as dominating since returning from his forearm trouble). Shields is great. Donnelly is very capable. But the two best arms in the pen might be guys who didn't pitch there most of the year: Kelvim Escobar and Ervin Santana (3.83 ERA since the break as a starter, so knock about a run off that as a reliever and boost the K-rate by about 30 percent). That's a pretty strong bridge to Shields and Rodriguez. Who are the Yanks bridge relievers? Aaron Small? Proctor? Please. In the late innings, the Yanks are just as good, with the underrated Tom Gordon and, of course, Rivera.

A-Rod, Matsui, Sheffield.... That's how the Yanks need to win this series. Will they get the better of the Angels relievers in the mid-to-late innings? Remember, after them you still have Jason Giambi and Jeter, which is pretty damn good. Offensively, the Angels are nickel and dime and Big Vlad. I can't see that being enough. Yanks in Five.