Last-Minute Draft Notebook

We're almost on the clock so it's time for some last minute thoughts on the latest draft news and buzz. This is the first draft I've missed in about 10 years because it's the first one that's fallen on my son's birthday since he was born six years ago. There's always Tivo.

I did a draft spot on ESPN radio last night and decided to forward some late rumor I heard about the Texans offering Mario Williams more guaranteed money than Reggie Bush. We'll forget that I also said it was still more likely than not that the Texans would draft Bush.

This led to a discussion on the sanity of passing on Bush, who I've said all along would be a bad No. 1 pick for anyone, but especially for the Texans. Clearly, when push came to shove, the Texans agreed that you can't put that kind of money down on a running back who is not even an every-down player.

There are some football people I respect who insist that Bush is the best player in this draft because of his game-changing ability. But most GMs and former GMs would have taken Mario Williams. In fact, Gil Brandt said it was the first year ever where the six he polls all tabbed the same player: Williams.

The biggest matchup problems Bush causes are as a receiver. This requires some really inventive play calling. And defenses in the NFL will adjust by blitzing the crap out of the QB, forcing the back to block. If you split him up wide to get out of this, you've taken a receiver out and now have Bush matched up against a corner, both of which whittle away at the advantage. If you have a really stout line and a blocking tight end, you could maybe get away with keeping Bush in the backfield, where he gets to work against linebackers and safeties. But this is the Texans we're talking about.

Now, the Saints are on the clock and they have to be bluffing about taking Bush, which would be a disaster for them. They gave about $15-$20 million of guaranteed money to Deuce McAllister just last year. They signed Michael Bennett last week. Now, they're going to give another $25 million in guaranteed money to Bush? No way. They made their bed with McAllister, who is coming off the ACL but still a major cap liability.

Should someone trade up? Why? You can't pay a running back that kind of money. He's the Saints problem now. Let's say, for argument's sake, that Bush becomes a Hall of Fame-caliber back. You'd just be getting what you paid for right out of the gate with him because he's going to always be the league's highest paid back. And he's always going to be one hit away from the cart (see: McAllister, Deuce); and once you cart off a running back, he's never the same.

Gary Myers in the Daily News here in New York cracks me up. First, the Jets were skewered for bypassing Leinart. Now, they're being skewered for bypassing Bush. Trading up is nuts. You're guaranteed to pay for a difference that is highly speculative. Economists Massey and Thaler demonstrated very clearly that the higher drafted player has a barely better than coin-flip (53 percent) chance of being better than the next player picked at that same position. And when you trade up, you are giving up those golden late first-round and early second-round picks (and sometimes thirds and fourths, too). So, you're paying for the certainty that you've identified a clearly superior player. And you're paying draft-pick compensation that also assumes this certainty. The game is rigged and plays into every general manager's overconfidence in himself and his scouts and information. It ignores the reality that much of the draft is pure guesswork.

So how can we assess a draft in the near-term? I'll grade the teams after the draft on how they've addressed the needs clearly identified in the Stat Power Index (see the link on the left). Of course, we look at the component stats, too. But the big picture is always those highly correlative net stats that we note each week in the SPI.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: May 1 - May 7

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in
Ty Wigginton, 2B, Devil Rays: He's leading a charmed life with an unprecedented power explosion and a succession of injuries to teammates that have created everyday action first at third and now at second.

Corey Patterson, OF, Orioles: Things are breaking right for Patterson, too. First, literally, with David Newhan's leg. Now figuratively with rookie Nick Markakis' struggles. His other competition for OF at bats, Luis Matos, is on the DL with a bum shoulder.


Bench 'em

Jeremy Reed, OF, Mariners: Does nothing offensively and is now being platooned with Willie Bloomquist. Both should be benched in favor of Shin-
Soo Choo, who is tearing up AAA.


Francisco Cordero, P, Rangers: He's been replaced as closer for at least the short-term by Akinori Otsuka. But keep him reserved because his velocity has been good. Cordero has just run into some bad luck.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Orlando Hernandez, P, Diamondbacks: He has 35 Ks in 27 innings and gets two home starts this week (Dodgers and Reds).

Josh Barfield, 2B, Padres: The rookie is now batting second and flashing plus speed and average pop. Mixed-leaguers should take notice.

Bench 'em

John Patterson, P, Nationals: With only one scheduled start this week, his lingering forearm injury makes him too risky to keep active.

Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets: Another of the walking wounded. Beltran made it to the on-deck circle last week and may still get DL'ed pending a weekend evaluation. Either way, he's not likely to be running with the weak hammy.


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Guest Column from The Big Dubb

(EDITOR'S NOTE: Zach contacted me through Tout Wars and wanted a chance to opine about fantasy baseball in hopes of establishing himself as an expert. Zach has good pedigree as the son of a MLB scout and he's a New Yorker, so we gave him a shot. Here is the resulting debut.)

By Zach Wahl

Being the son of an ex-major league scout, my childhood was centered on baseball. Instead of going to the park to play on the swing set, I could usually be found hitting off a tee, or throwing to my father late into the night. Hell, my first words could easily have been sixty yard dash, or the 20/80 system. For example, I used to play short until my dad wanted to measure my arm speed by throwing off a mound, when suddenly I became a pitcher. Living with someone who has so much knowledge about the game has helped teach me how to differentiate between talented players and duds.

Most major league scouts rate players on a sliding overall scale 20-80, 80 being the best players in the game and 20 being the worst. Let's first look at the range of numbers starting with the lowest. Position players are rated on a variety of skills, the most fantasy-relevant being speed, hitting for average and hitting for power. Pitchers, on the other hand get rated 20-80 per pitch: fastball, curve change etc. Some scouts like to rate stamina and pick off moves as well. Typically, pitching is where the biggest mistakes are made. Most scouts love the hard-throwing star, while most of these kids fizzle out quickly. Everyone knows it’s not how hard you throw; it's about location, location, location.

As you're sitting back flicking through your MLB Extra innings package, watch to see how the pitchers hit the catcher's glove. If they're throwing 86, getting ahead of all the hitters and has good movement then you may want to investigate more. These are the diamonds in the rough, the player's people are forgetting. If a pitcher possesses this, then look at the swings the batter is taking. If Albert Pujols is getting his knees buckled by a filthy 12/6 duce, or A-Rod swings at a slider four feet off the plate, that's a pretty good indication that the pitchers got good stuff. You should then jump on your computer and check to see his previous performances, focusing on strikeout rates and hits and walks per inning.

What's the difference between Kenny Rogers and Freddy Garcia? Well Garcia, throws 8-10 mph harder and costs owners 8-10 dollars more on average. But if you watch the game closely, Garcia has a tendency to leave his pitches up in the strike zone and hang his off speed pitches. While Rogers hits all his spots, rarely leaves a fastball up, and doesn't hang anything. So why do scouts drool over Garcia but not bat an eye at Rogers. Well first off because Rogers is old, but more importantly because Garcia throws gas (or, at least, once did). Garcia last year was 14-8 with a 3.87 era, 1.25 whip, and an opponent batting average of .259. Not bad numbers. Now, Rogers was also 14-8 with a 3.46 era a 1.32 whip and an opponent average of .271. He also averaged a tad over four Ks every 9 innings compared to 5.8 per nine for Garcia. These numbers are almost identical. Most owners will overlook a pitcher like Rogers, maybe because of his hairy arms, or the fact that he had that run in with the camera man. We aren't looking to marry these players; we just use them to win our fantasy league. Now if you were to draft Rogers instead of Garcia, you can get basically the same numbers and you would have saved an extra 10 dollars. On average Manny Ramirez went for 36 dollars where as Sheffield went for 26. Now you have money for that stick you previously couldn't afford. I know for a fact that the difference in Manny's numbers compared with Sheff's will be more then 1.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

A main issue floating around fantasy leagues everywhere is whether Daniel Cabrera is a viable option. I have heard many people talk about how he should be dropped because of his high walks totals, which lead to high pitch counts early in games. Yes Cabrera has the same amount of walks and strike outs, but on the other hand he has more Ks than innings pitched, and has limited his walks in his last two starts. He has only walked 6 in his last twelve innings, so we can only assume Leo Mazzoni, is having some effect on the young righty. He has yet to give up a home run, and if you have seen him pitch you can see he has nasty stuff. Hang on to Cabrera, its not likely you can pick up anyone with as much upside, and if he is able to lower his walk total, he can pay of big dividends. It's still early and if you saw him during the WBC, you know how devastating he can be.

Judging hitting talent is based more on numbers, because it's harder to judge a good swing than a good pitch. Avoid people who swing through a lot of pitches. When someone swings through a pitch that means they were either fooled or guessed wrong. It is not luck that Barry Bonds and Ichiro Suzuki swung through the least amount of pitches over the last few seasons. Another thing to look for in hitting is how a batter works a pitcher. A sign of a successful hitter is someone who makes a pitcher throw 8-10 pitches in an at bat. If a hitter can foul off or take the "pitcher's pitch," that means they are more likely to see a favorable pitch later in the at bat. Again, think of the best hitters in the game; and now think about how they make pitchers work and battle. Although lead-off hitters and your prototypical pesky hitters do this for a living, search for the slugger who does the same thing. Its one thing to foul off five pitches and hit a bloop single, but it's another to take the 12th pitch in an at bat 450 feet over the left center field wall.

There are many hitters out there who are incredibly undervalued. For example, Chad Tracy provided an owner with something everyone loves: options. He is eligible at third and first plus the outfield. He is a complete hitter in all aspects of the game. His 27 homeruns were tied for 7th for all 1st and 3rd baseman. He had the fourth best average out of all first baseman, and the third best average out of all third baseman. When you watch him play, he always swings the bat well and usually doesn't miss many pitches. He had 78 strike outs, which is only 13 more then King Albert. He compiled his stats in only 500 at bats, so for all the projectors out there, that's over 30 homeruns in a full season. In many auction leagues he had an average of 10 dollars while his peers Beltre went for 12, Sexson for 16, Mora for 18, and Helton for 26.

Zach, The Big Dubb, was born in NY and is going to school at the University of Georgia, where he regularly thumps all fantasy comers.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: April 24-May 1

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in
Alexis Rios, OF, Blue Jays: Manager John Gibbons took the first step last week in abandoning the platoon with Eric Hinkse. That's what five bombs and 14 ribbies in your first 40 at bats will do.

Kenny Rogers, P, Tigers: He gets no respect in mixed leagues, but Rogers is a professional pitcher in a favorable home park who you can spot during weeks like this when he gets two starts (at Angels, Twins).


Bench 'em

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners: We advocated Dan Johnson during his historic slump, so why not Beltre? Adrian has a bigger body of work that makes him more clearly appear to be a one-year wonder. His five steals are a fluke and he got his first extra-base hit only last week.

Scott Kazmir, P, Devil Rays: Kazmir isn't yet among the handful of starters you roll out there when his one start in the week is at the Yankees. He has pitched well against them, but better safe than sorry.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Aaron Harang, P, Reds: He hasn't paid dividends yet, but the K/BB ratio remains solid, so we're still bullish. Gets two starts this week (at Nationals and Astros).

Todd Walker, 2B, Cubs: Will play first base, too, with Derrek Lee out eight weeks. Walker's bat made him deserving of full-time at bats even before Lee's injury.

Bench 'em

Odalis Perez, P, Dodgers: He' allowed just one homer in his first 15 innings. But the lefty gets one start this week in the most homer-friendly park in baseball for righties: Houston's Minute Maid.

Mike Piazza, C, Padres: It's sad how Piazza's skills have declined. But a late-career hitting surge at catcher is usually limited to guys who didn't toil much in their prime. The Padres are home all week, too, in cavernous Petco.

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Hating Bonds

In the Breakfast Table, where Scott Pianowski and I discussed the Bonds situation in some detail, Scott said something that I kind of glossed over because it's almost universal at this point, even among the handful of Bonds defenders. The "churlish, egomaniac" ... "can't go away" fast enough for him. In other places, I've read how people "hate Bonds with the intensity of a thousand suns."

Obviously, Bonds isn't a likeable guy. But, when you step back, it's surprising that we all have a tendency to care. I'll briefly discuss why I think that is. The objective isn't to change anyone's feelings, just to put them in a psychological context: we hate because he shatters our child-like notion that great artists have to be great people, too.

I think that all sports fans accept the fact that elite athletes are artists in every sense of the word. Bonds' brush is his bat and his canvas the baseball diamond.

In the human brain, the circuitry for morality is cross-wired with the circuitry for status. So our default position is that people who have achieved a high level of artistry are also "good people." Mostly, top athletes benefit from this evolutionary blindspot with commercial endorsements and status that transcends their sport to a degree often much greater than specific athletic accomplishments.

Now, it should go without saying that a person's artistic prodigy has nothing whatsoever to do with their morality. In other words, you can be a great artist and a terrible person. But when artists are rightly or wrongly revealed to be bad people there is, I think, a natural human instinct to respond angrily for reasons that have more to do with us than them or their specifc acts.

This has been going on with Bonds ever since he was generally labelled by the press as a "bad guy." Since 1999, steroids were trumped up as a reason to devalue the objective reality of his greatness despite a paucity (some would even say "nonexistence") of evidence on the relationship between steriods and baseball performance. Now that his accomplishments have been marginalized by most through these allegations, the federal government is taking the next logical next step in seeking to criminalize this behavior through a rarely used perjury prosecution.

Athletes wouldn't get their many millions if we didn't instinctively heroize them. So, don't feel too sorry for Bonds. But that doesn't legitimize the hostility we express when our assumptions are revealed to be false. Children commonly experience shock, disappointment and great anger when they first realize their parents aren't the superheros they want them to be. But adults are less sympathetic in failing to learn from this mistake and repeating the process when illusions about athletic superstars are similarly revealed.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: April 17-23

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in
Dan Johnson, 1B, A's: Yes, he's in a miserable slump. But the law of averages says that he'll bust out soon. There's nothing fundamentally wrong with his approach thus far that some better luck on balls in play (or a couple of homers) won't cure.

Nate Robertson, P, Tigers: He's added a change this year and the strikeout totals have picked up to 2004 levels. This week, he gets two starts (Indians, Mariners).


Bench 'em

Brad Wilkerson (OF/1B, Rangers): Moved down to the bottom of the lineup. His homer total last year would have increased from 11 to only 14 had he played in Arlington.

Ted Lilly (SP, Blue Jays): Coming off a great start against the Red Sox, but do you want to double down against the Yankees in his one start this week? Lilly's not consistent enough to warrant such confidence.



NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Miguel Batista, P, Diamondbacks: An unexpected source of strikeouts thus far in 2006, Batista gets two starts this week (Dodgers and Giants).

Brad Hawpe, OF, Rockies: Is his early season homer tear for real? He's 27, plays in Colorado, and slugged 28 homers in 342 at bats in AAA in 2005. So, it probably pays to ignore his career .402 slugging percentage in the majors heading into '06.

Bench 'em

Tim Hudson, P, Braves: He has mediocre stuff and gets just one start this week at Shea against the Mets, who have as fearsome a middle of the lineup as any team in the NL.

Billy Hall, SS, Brewers: Hall has position eligibility all over and manager Ned Yost still says he's determined to get him at least 400 at bats in a super utility role. But he has to be benched in mixed leagues until an injury or slumping starter opens up a full-time spot.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: April 10-16

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in
Jon Papelbon, P, Red Sox: The young fireballer was annointed closer-of-the-moment by Terry Francona, who said he's as dominating as any AL hurler right now. That doesn't sound like we should be expecting Keith Foulke to return to ninth-inning duties any time soon.

Estaban Loaiza, P, A's: You can't put him in yet because, as the A's fifth starter, he won't start until mid-April. But once the season gets rolling, being a fifth starter doesn't really matter. Pencil him in for 14 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA. So "put him on" your reserve roster.

Bench 'em

Rocco Baldelli, OF, Devil Rays: It's unclear if he'll be active this week and, even if he is, let him prove he's over his assorted woes after missing all of 2005 with injury. If healthy, he's a decent No. 4 outfielder in mixed leagues.

Corey Patterson, OF, Orioles: The former fantasy stud is getting squeezed out of at bats by rookie Nick Markakis, who manager Sam Parlazzo says will be an everyday player. that leaves Patterson and Luis Matos on the outs with ancient Jeff Conine promised full-time at bats, too.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Danys Baez, P, Dodgers: More elbow surgery for Eric Gagne. So Baez gets ninth-inning duty for the foreseeable future. He's nothing special, but, with saves, it's always more about opportunity than ability.

Preston Wilson, OF, Astros: He's moved to the league's best home run park for right-handed hitters. He'll be this year's Jermaine Dye, but better. Give him 35 bombs in '06.

Bench 'em

Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers: Is the 21-year-old ready for big-league pitching? Heading into the weekend, he had 24 Ks and 3 BBs in his first 71 official at bats. In '06, he struck out in seven of his first nine plate appearances. Mixed leaguers should bench Fielder until he proves he belongs.

Aaron Heilman, P, Mets: He deserves to be in the Mets rotation, but has been bumped to middle relief out of necessity. He's not happy about it and that may negatively impact his performance. Even if it doesn't, he not going to do enough to start in mixed leagues.

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Tout Wars Recap

Before I give you my Mixed League Tout Wars team and bid prices, a little about my strategy (which I sent to league-mate David Gonos for his Sportsline.com article).

Here's what I said, unedited (Dave, buddy, I thought you would clean this up!):

"The strategy is always the same: get projected hitting stats for a modest discount and stay disciplined enough to grab the pitchers where your opinion is at greatest variance with the room. I wanted Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer because replacement value is so high in a mixed league that you can afford to overpay. But both went to Leshen, who was willing to overpay more. High replacement value is the reason why saves are more valuable in a mixed league; so, I invested to win the category, which is always a bad play in an "only" league. Hitters coming off injury-plagued seasons have all their risk fully discounted. But all players are injury risks. Plus losing a Bonds for half a year isn't a big deal in a mixed league because you can so easily replace him with a solid reserve or free agent. The combined stats in this case are far more valuable than the auction price; and that's a worst-case scenario. Punch and judy speed guys are grossly overvalued in every league but especially in a mixed league, where you need to average such a high amount of homers and ribbies from each roster spot. The steal and runs gains from these guys are largely offset by the holes they dig for you in the power cats."

Here's the plan in action, following is some post-purchase anxiety/analysis:

C-Johjima-$12
C-Lieberthal-$1
1B-Delgado-$23
2B-Soriano-$30
3B-C. Jones-$19
SS-Lugo-$17
MI-B. Hall-$1
CI-Rolen-$17
OF-Bonds-$18
OF-Drew-$9
OF-Tracy-$8
OF-J. Jones-$7
OF-Baldelli-$4
UT-Cameron-$1

P-Peavy-$25
P-Harden-$15
P-Willis-$12
P-Loaiza-$1
P-Glavine-$1
P-C. Cordero-$14
P-Izzy-$14
P-F. Cordero-$10
P-McDougal-$1

Reserves: J. Encarnacion, T. Nixon, J. Michaels, B.J. Upton, R. Soriano, Lawton (Lawton? Well, Reed had just broken his wrist, reportedly, but not in fact and could have been out for months. Still, a bad pick. As for R. Soriano, obviously, I don't think anyone should be going long on Guardado.) Reserve note: Burgos went before my first reserve pick and, a few days after the auction, word came out that McDougal was going to be out a couple of months.

Now, for the main course. Alfonso Soriano has a lot of stink on him and that's not a stinky price. But there is scarcity at 2B and the only way I can compete in steals is getting combo guys. I think Soriano will steal north of 40 this year because they have to throw him a bone for the OF stuff. Remember, Frank Robinson let Vladdy get 60 attempts one year and Vlad was never close to the thief that Soriano is.

I've explained the injury strategy. Does getting hurt one year mean a guy is more risky to get hurt again the next? That's unanswered as far as I know, but I strongly suspect it's "no."

I'm all obliqued out already. I need a middle infielder even with a healthy Lugo. I took Billy Hall because he could go mid-teens in homers and steals if they come to their senses and jettison Corey Koskie, who is useless. I should have taken Carlos Guillen in the supplemental. My backup plan is Josh Barfield, who intrigues me. What to bid? Money is overrated in these kinds of leagues, so it will be generous.

I like my staff a lot. I think Loaiza will be a top-30 starter. That's a bargain price. His road ERA was a fluke in '05. The walks and Ks and homers were fine away last year and he's on the right team now and in the right park. Harden was a steal; he's better in this format than Halliday, but I'm in the minority there. Halliday has no big strikeout upside and Ks rule in 5X5.

Peavy is on-par with Santana when league and park factors are taken into account. At the very least, there's not $13 difference. Dontrelle Willis will be toiling in the Bronx or other park of a pennant-contending team by August, I'll bet. Even if that's wrong, he's worth well north of $12 when Javier Vazquez goes for $11 (13 starters went for more than $12, so you can see where the value was and that's always where you have to be).

In deep leagues like this, closers are more important, I think. Why aren't steals more important, then? Aren't closers taking up spots for wins and strikeouts like punch-and-judy speed guys are for homers and ribbies? Good questions. I'm going to think about that one for a couple days and get back to you. For now, I'm thinking that the homer and ribbie marks are harder to get to with SB-only guys than the K and win totals are with six starters. Of course, I have five. But they're all pretty solid bets relative to cost. I'll have to find an arm or two on the waiver wire, which you wouldn't think would be too difficult but WAY more pitchers went in the reserve draft than I figured. Kenny Rogers might be my best available waiver guy (ouch; and I like Rogers as a guy who can earn $10-to-$15 in an "only" league).

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