Guest Column from The Big Dubb
(EDITOR'S NOTE: Zach contacted me through Tout Wars and wanted a chance to opine about fantasy baseball in hopes of establishing himself as an expert. Zach has good pedigree as the son of a MLB scout and he's a New Yorker, so we gave him a shot. Here is the resulting debut.)
By Zach Wahl
Being the son of an ex-major league scout, my childhood was centered on baseball. Instead of going to the park to play on the swing set, I could usually be found hitting off a tee, or throwing to my father late into the night. Hell, my first words could easily have been sixty yard dash, or the 20/80 system. For example, I used to play short until my dad wanted to measure my arm speed by throwing off a mound, when suddenly I became a pitcher. Living with someone who has so much knowledge about the game has helped teach me how to differentiate between talented players and duds.
Most major league scouts rate players on a sliding overall scale 20-80, 80 being the best players in the game and 20 being the worst. Let's first look at the range of numbers starting with the lowest. Position players are rated on a variety of skills, the most fantasy-relevant being speed, hitting for average and hitting for power. Pitchers, on the other hand get rated 20-80 per pitch: fastball, curve change etc. Some scouts like to rate stamina and pick off moves as well. Typically, pitching is where the biggest mistakes are made. Most scouts love the hard-throwing star, while most of these kids fizzle out quickly. Everyone knows it’s not how hard you throw; it's about location, location, location.
As you're sitting back flicking through your MLB Extra innings package, watch to see how the pitchers hit the catcher's glove. If they're throwing 86, getting ahead of all the hitters and has good movement then you may want to investigate more. These are the diamonds in the rough, the player's people are forgetting. If a pitcher possesses this, then look at the swings the batter is taking. If Albert Pujols is getting his knees buckled by a filthy 12/6 duce, or A-Rod swings at a slider four feet off the plate, that's a pretty good indication that the pitchers got good stuff. You should then jump on your computer and check to see his previous performances, focusing on strikeout rates and hits and walks per inning.
What's the difference between Kenny Rogers and Freddy Garcia? Well Garcia, throws 8-10 mph harder and costs owners 8-10 dollars more on average. But if you watch the game closely, Garcia has a tendency to leave his pitches up in the strike zone and hang his off speed pitches. While Rogers hits all his spots, rarely leaves a fastball up, and doesn't hang anything. So why do scouts drool over Garcia but not bat an eye at Rogers. Well first off because Rogers is old, but more importantly because Garcia throws gas (or, at least, once did). Garcia last year was 14-8 with a 3.87 era, 1.25 whip, and an opponent batting average of .259. Not bad numbers. Now, Rogers was also 14-8 with a 3.46 era a 1.32 whip and an opponent average of .271. He also averaged a tad over four Ks every 9 innings compared to 5.8 per nine for Garcia. These numbers are almost identical. Most owners will overlook a pitcher like Rogers, maybe because of his hairy arms, or the fact that he had that run in with the camera man. We aren't looking to marry these players; we just use them to win our fantasy league. Now if you were to draft Rogers instead of Garcia, you can get basically the same numbers and you would have saved an extra 10 dollars. On average Manny Ramirez went for 36 dollars where as Sheffield went for 26. Now you have money for that stick you previously couldn't afford. I know for a fact that the difference in Manny's numbers compared with Sheff's will be more then 1.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
A main issue floating around fantasy leagues everywhere is whether Daniel Cabrera is a viable option. I have heard many people talk about how he should be dropped because of his high walks totals, which lead to high pitch counts early in games. Yes Cabrera has the same amount of walks and strike outs, but on the other hand he has more Ks than innings pitched, and has limited his walks in his last two starts. He has only walked 6 in his last twelve innings, so we can only assume Leo Mazzoni, is having some effect on the young righty. He has yet to give up a home run, and if you have seen him pitch you can see he has nasty stuff. Hang on to Cabrera, its not likely you can pick up anyone with as much upside, and if he is able to lower his walk total, he can pay of big dividends. It's still early and if you saw him during the WBC, you know how devastating he can be.
Judging hitting talent is based more on numbers, because it's harder to judge a good swing than a good pitch. Avoid people who swing through a lot of pitches. When someone swings through a pitch that means they were either fooled or guessed wrong. It is not luck that Barry Bonds and Ichiro Suzuki swung through the least amount of pitches over the last few seasons. Another thing to look for in hitting is how a batter works a pitcher. A sign of a successful hitter is someone who makes a pitcher throw 8-10 pitches in an at bat. If a hitter can foul off or take the "pitcher's pitch," that means they are more likely to see a favorable pitch later in the at bat. Again, think of the best hitters in the game; and now think about how they make pitchers work and battle. Although lead-off hitters and your prototypical pesky hitters do this for a living, search for the slugger who does the same thing. Its one thing to foul off five pitches and hit a bloop single, but it's another to take the 12th pitch in an at bat 450 feet over the left center field wall.
There are many hitters out there who are incredibly undervalued. For example, Chad Tracy provided an owner with something everyone loves: options. He is eligible at third and first plus the outfield. He is a complete hitter in all aspects of the game. His 27 homeruns were tied for 7th for all 1st and 3rd baseman. He had the fourth best average out of all first baseman, and the third best average out of all third baseman. When you watch him play, he always swings the bat well and usually doesn't miss many pitches. He had 78 strike outs, which is only 13 more then King Albert. He compiled his stats in only 500 at bats, so for all the projectors out there, that's over 30 homeruns in a full season. In many auction leagues he had an average of 10 dollars while his peers Beltre went for 12, Sexson for 16, Mora for 18, and Helton for 26.
Zach, The Big Dubb, was born in NY and is going to school at the University of Georgia, where he regularly thumps all fantasy comers.
END OF POST
By Zach Wahl
Being the son of an ex-major league scout, my childhood was centered on baseball. Instead of going to the park to play on the swing set, I could usually be found hitting off a tee, or throwing to my father late into the night. Hell, my first words could easily have been sixty yard dash, or the 20/80 system. For example, I used to play short until my dad wanted to measure my arm speed by throwing off a mound, when suddenly I became a pitcher. Living with someone who has so much knowledge about the game has helped teach me how to differentiate between talented players and duds.
Most major league scouts rate players on a sliding overall scale 20-80, 80 being the best players in the game and 20 being the worst. Let's first look at the range of numbers starting with the lowest. Position players are rated on a variety of skills, the most fantasy-relevant being speed, hitting for average and hitting for power. Pitchers, on the other hand get rated 20-80 per pitch: fastball, curve change etc. Some scouts like to rate stamina and pick off moves as well. Typically, pitching is where the biggest mistakes are made. Most scouts love the hard-throwing star, while most of these kids fizzle out quickly. Everyone knows it’s not how hard you throw; it's about location, location, location.
As you're sitting back flicking through your MLB Extra innings package, watch to see how the pitchers hit the catcher's glove. If they're throwing 86, getting ahead of all the hitters and has good movement then you may want to investigate more. These are the diamonds in the rough, the player's people are forgetting. If a pitcher possesses this, then look at the swings the batter is taking. If Albert Pujols is getting his knees buckled by a filthy 12/6 duce, or A-Rod swings at a slider four feet off the plate, that's a pretty good indication that the pitchers got good stuff. You should then jump on your computer and check to see his previous performances, focusing on strikeout rates and hits and walks per inning.
What's the difference between Kenny Rogers and Freddy Garcia? Well Garcia, throws 8-10 mph harder and costs owners 8-10 dollars more on average. But if you watch the game closely, Garcia has a tendency to leave his pitches up in the strike zone and hang his off speed pitches. While Rogers hits all his spots, rarely leaves a fastball up, and doesn't hang anything. So why do scouts drool over Garcia but not bat an eye at Rogers. Well first off because Rogers is old, but more importantly because Garcia throws gas (or, at least, once did). Garcia last year was 14-8 with a 3.87 era, 1.25 whip, and an opponent batting average of .259. Not bad numbers. Now, Rogers was also 14-8 with a 3.46 era a 1.32 whip and an opponent average of .271. He also averaged a tad over four Ks every 9 innings compared to 5.8 per nine for Garcia. These numbers are almost identical. Most owners will overlook a pitcher like Rogers, maybe because of his hairy arms, or the fact that he had that run in with the camera man. We aren't looking to marry these players; we just use them to win our fantasy league. Now if you were to draft Rogers instead of Garcia, you can get basically the same numbers and you would have saved an extra 10 dollars. On average Manny Ramirez went for 36 dollars where as Sheffield went for 26. Now you have money for that stick you previously couldn't afford. I know for a fact that the difference in Manny's numbers compared with Sheff's will be more then 1.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
A main issue floating around fantasy leagues everywhere is whether Daniel Cabrera is a viable option. I have heard many people talk about how he should be dropped because of his high walks totals, which lead to high pitch counts early in games. Yes Cabrera has the same amount of walks and strike outs, but on the other hand he has more Ks than innings pitched, and has limited his walks in his last two starts. He has only walked 6 in his last twelve innings, so we can only assume Leo Mazzoni, is having some effect on the young righty. He has yet to give up a home run, and if you have seen him pitch you can see he has nasty stuff. Hang on to Cabrera, its not likely you can pick up anyone with as much upside, and if he is able to lower his walk total, he can pay of big dividends. It's still early and if you saw him during the WBC, you know how devastating he can be.
Judging hitting talent is based more on numbers, because it's harder to judge a good swing than a good pitch. Avoid people who swing through a lot of pitches. When someone swings through a pitch that means they were either fooled or guessed wrong. It is not luck that Barry Bonds and Ichiro Suzuki swung through the least amount of pitches over the last few seasons. Another thing to look for in hitting is how a batter works a pitcher. A sign of a successful hitter is someone who makes a pitcher throw 8-10 pitches in an at bat. If a hitter can foul off or take the "pitcher's pitch," that means they are more likely to see a favorable pitch later in the at bat. Again, think of the best hitters in the game; and now think about how they make pitchers work and battle. Although lead-off hitters and your prototypical pesky hitters do this for a living, search for the slugger who does the same thing. Its one thing to foul off five pitches and hit a bloop single, but it's another to take the 12th pitch in an at bat 450 feet over the left center field wall.
There are many hitters out there who are incredibly undervalued. For example, Chad Tracy provided an owner with something everyone loves: options. He is eligible at third and first plus the outfield. He is a complete hitter in all aspects of the game. His 27 homeruns were tied for 7th for all 1st and 3rd baseman. He had the fourth best average out of all first baseman, and the third best average out of all third baseman. When you watch him play, he always swings the bat well and usually doesn't miss many pitches. He had 78 strike outs, which is only 13 more then King Albert. He compiled his stats in only 500 at bats, so for all the projectors out there, that's over 30 homeruns in a full season. In many auction leagues he had an average of 10 dollars while his peers Beltre went for 12, Sexson for 16, Mora for 18, and Helton for 26.
Zach, The Big Dubb, was born in NY and is going to school at the University of Georgia, where he regularly thumps all fantasy comers.
END OF POST
Entry #114594979336446567 posted by Catherine Salfino at 3:18 AM
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