Tout Wars Recap

Before I give you my Mixed League Tout Wars team and bid prices, a little about my strategy (which I sent to league-mate David Gonos for his Sportsline.com article).

Here's what I said, unedited (Dave, buddy, I thought you would clean this up!):

"The strategy is always the same: get projected hitting stats for a modest discount and stay disciplined enough to grab the pitchers where your opinion is at greatest variance with the room. I wanted Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer because replacement value is so high in a mixed league that you can afford to overpay. But both went to Leshen, who was willing to overpay more. High replacement value is the reason why saves are more valuable in a mixed league; so, I invested to win the category, which is always a bad play in an "only" league. Hitters coming off injury-plagued seasons have all their risk fully discounted. But all players are injury risks. Plus losing a Bonds for half a year isn't a big deal in a mixed league because you can so easily replace him with a solid reserve or free agent. The combined stats in this case are far more valuable than the auction price; and that's a worst-case scenario. Punch and judy speed guys are grossly overvalued in every league but especially in a mixed league, where you need to average such a high amount of homers and ribbies from each roster spot. The steal and runs gains from these guys are largely offset by the holes they dig for you in the power cats."

Here's the plan in action, following is some post-purchase anxiety/analysis:

C-Johjima-$12
C-Lieberthal-$1
1B-Delgado-$23
2B-Soriano-$30
3B-C. Jones-$19
SS-Lugo-$17
MI-B. Hall-$1
CI-Rolen-$17
OF-Bonds-$18
OF-Drew-$9
OF-Tracy-$8
OF-J. Jones-$7
OF-Baldelli-$4
UT-Cameron-$1

P-Peavy-$25
P-Harden-$15
P-Willis-$12
P-Loaiza-$1
P-Glavine-$1
P-C. Cordero-$14
P-Izzy-$14
P-F. Cordero-$10
P-McDougal-$1

Reserves: J. Encarnacion, T. Nixon, J. Michaels, B.J. Upton, R. Soriano, Lawton (Lawton? Well, Reed had just broken his wrist, reportedly, but not in fact and could have been out for months. Still, a bad pick. As for R. Soriano, obviously, I don't think anyone should be going long on Guardado.) Reserve note: Burgos went before my first reserve pick and, a few days after the auction, word came out that McDougal was going to be out a couple of months.

Now, for the main course. Alfonso Soriano has a lot of stink on him and that's not a stinky price. But there is scarcity at 2B and the only way I can compete in steals is getting combo guys. I think Soriano will steal north of 40 this year because they have to throw him a bone for the OF stuff. Remember, Frank Robinson let Vladdy get 60 attempts one year and Vlad was never close to the thief that Soriano is.

I've explained the injury strategy. Does getting hurt one year mean a guy is more risky to get hurt again the next? That's unanswered as far as I know, but I strongly suspect it's "no."

I'm all obliqued out already. I need a middle infielder even with a healthy Lugo. I took Billy Hall because he could go mid-teens in homers and steals if they come to their senses and jettison Corey Koskie, who is useless. I should have taken Carlos Guillen in the supplemental. My backup plan is Josh Barfield, who intrigues me. What to bid? Money is overrated in these kinds of leagues, so it will be generous.

I like my staff a lot. I think Loaiza will be a top-30 starter. That's a bargain price. His road ERA was a fluke in '05. The walks and Ks and homers were fine away last year and he's on the right team now and in the right park. Harden was a steal; he's better in this format than Halliday, but I'm in the minority there. Halliday has no big strikeout upside and Ks rule in 5X5.

Peavy is on-par with Santana when league and park factors are taken into account. At the very least, there's not $13 difference. Dontrelle Willis will be toiling in the Bronx or other park of a pennant-contending team by August, I'll bet. Even if that's wrong, he's worth well north of $12 when Javier Vazquez goes for $11 (13 starters went for more than $12, so you can see where the value was and that's always where you have to be).

In deep leagues like this, closers are more important, I think. Why aren't steals more important, then? Aren't closers taking up spots for wins and strikeouts like punch-and-judy speed guys are for homers and ribbies? Good questions. I'm going to think about that one for a couple days and get back to you. For now, I'm thinking that the homer and ribbie marks are harder to get to with SB-only guys than the K and win totals are with six starters. Of course, I have five. But they're all pretty solid bets relative to cost. I'll have to find an arm or two on the waiver wire, which you wouldn't think would be too difficult but WAY more pitchers went in the reserve draft than I figured. Kenny Rogers might be my best available waiver guy (ouch; and I like Rogers as a guy who can earn $10-to-$15 in an "only" league).

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