Astros vs. Cardinals
We were 3-for-4 in picking the divisional round based largely on Net OPS, losing only the pick of Yanks over Angels in five.
Speaking of the Yankees, what was Joe Torre thinking in letting Mike Mussina give up five runs in under three innings last night? He had a sufficiently rested Randy Johnson. He had the lead in the game and all of the series momentum. Mussina is battling arm trouble which resulted in a recent, lengthy DL trip. But he gives up the lead and then is allowed to surrender two more runs, which proved decisive. That's just terrbile managing from a guy who rides Mariano Rivera for two innings in April games against Tampa Bay.
The Yanks were also burned by their laid-back approach to that last game in Fenway. If they won, they would have secured homefield advantage in Round 1. But they mailed it in and ended up in Anaheim in Game 5. There is no way on earth that Ervin Santana would have survived that bout of wildness in the Bronx. But teams never take homefield seriously. If they're in the playoffs anyway, they couldn't care less, in all sports.
Now, back the NL and the NLCS matchup we predicted. The Cardinals had an easy time with the Padres, but take a big step up in weight class vesus Houston, which has a great staff. The Astros don't have a championship-caliber offense, especially when you adjust their stats down for park factors. But the have three Cy Young-level starters and a lights-out closer. So, they are not a team you want to see in a short series. Houston has to get production out of Morgan Ensberg if the Cardinals use the same approach as the Braves in pitching to Lance Berkman (which is to say, NOT pitching to him).
The Cardinals have okay starters (when you include Chris Carpenter, who will likely win the Cy Young award). Jason Ishringhausen is not the guy you want to pulling your bacon out of the fire in the ninth inning. But he's all they have. Where St. Louis shines is on offense, even minus Scott Rolen and with Jim Edmonds in decline. Reggie Sanders has been dynamite. And they have the best hitter on the planet in Albert Pujols.
The Cardinals are overrated. But they have the advantage of getting the extra home game and I think that will end up being decisive. OPS Net says Cards by a hair. I agree. Cardinals in 7.
Speaking of the Yankees, what was Joe Torre thinking in letting Mike Mussina give up five runs in under three innings last night? He had a sufficiently rested Randy Johnson. He had the lead in the game and all of the series momentum. Mussina is battling arm trouble which resulted in a recent, lengthy DL trip. But he gives up the lead and then is allowed to surrender two more runs, which proved decisive. That's just terrbile managing from a guy who rides Mariano Rivera for two innings in April games against Tampa Bay.
The Yanks were also burned by their laid-back approach to that last game in Fenway. If they won, they would have secured homefield advantage in Round 1. But they mailed it in and ended up in Anaheim in Game 5. There is no way on earth that Ervin Santana would have survived that bout of wildness in the Bronx. But teams never take homefield seriously. If they're in the playoffs anyway, they couldn't care less, in all sports.
Now, back the NL and the NLCS matchup we predicted. The Cardinals had an easy time with the Padres, but take a big step up in weight class vesus Houston, which has a great staff. The Astros don't have a championship-caliber offense, especially when you adjust their stats down for park factors. But the have three Cy Young-level starters and a lights-out closer. So, they are not a team you want to see in a short series. Houston has to get production out of Morgan Ensberg if the Cardinals use the same approach as the Braves in pitching to Lance Berkman (which is to say, NOT pitching to him).
The Cardinals have okay starters (when you include Chris Carpenter, who will likely win the Cy Young award). Jason Ishringhausen is not the guy you want to pulling your bacon out of the fire in the ninth inning. But he's all they have. Where St. Louis shines is on offense, even minus Scott Rolen and with Jim Edmonds in decline. Reggie Sanders has been dynamite. And they have the best hitter on the planet in Albert Pujols.
The Cardinals are overrated. But they have the advantage of getting the extra home game and I think that will end up being decisive. OPS Net says Cards by a hair. I agree. Cardinals in 7.
Entry #112905543016264033 posted by Catherine Salfino at 2:14 PM
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