Braves vs. Astros

Net OPS slightly favors the Astros. But I think this is an easy win for the Astros. Clemens has gotten all the ink, but Andy Pettitte has pitched at least as well. Roy Oswalt was less lucky on balls put in play and gives the Astros a third Cy Young-caliber pitcher.

Compare that front three to the Braves, who have John Smoltz and his barking shoulder, the far-from-dominate Tim Hudson and the very lucky Jorge Sosa. So, the Astros staff is miles better.

The Braves had a much better offense during the regular season. I don't put much stock in Andrew Jones' slump down the stretch. He'll be fine. But Jeff Francoeur never had the underlying stats to support his production (56 Ks, 11 BBs in 256 ABs). So his slump isn't surprising. The Astros need Morgan Ensberg and Lance Berkman to carry them. Expect Berkman to lead the way.

How on earth did Lidge give up 57 hits in 69 innings while striking out 102 batters? Glad to see the Mets let Dan Wheeler get away, only to see him emerge as one of the league's best middle relievers. Speaking of bullpen bargains, how did Kyle Farnsworth get underneath the radar last offseason? He's had years like this before. Farnsworth was lights out in September but the rest of the Braves pen is questionable.

The Braves finished 29-28 since August 1. The Astros came back from 15 games under to win 89 games. Astros in four.