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Saturday, October 22, 2005

Word Series Pick

We're 4-2 thus far in the postseason picking series based on net OPS (on base plus slugging percentage).

This is a very tough series. Neither team can hit. The Astros have very slightly better quality at the top of the rotation, but Freddy Garcia appears to be the White Sox fourth starter and he badly outclasses Brandon Backe. In fact, I don't understand why Garcia doesn't start game three. If this series goes seven games, I'd want Garcia pitching it before Jon Garland. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.

Jose Contreres is pitching as well as anyone right now, so that Game 1 matchup should be a classic. Buerhle and Pettitte is another even matchup. But the Astros get the edge with Roy Oswalt against Garland, as Oswalt is in a differnt class of pitcher. But that advantage for Houston is overwhelmed by the edge the White Sox have with Garcia over Backe.

The offensive struggles of both teams all season need to be viewed in the context of their home parks, which are hitter-friendly. So these lineups are even worse than they appear when looking at the raw stats, which are pretty bad. The White Sox slug well but don't get on base, as only two hitters are over .350 in OBP, Paul Konerko and Scott Podsednik, but Podsednik has struggled since the all-star break. Four Sox, Juan Uribe, Joe Crede, Carl Everett and A.J. Pierzynski, have OBPs below .310. Konerko is solid, but should be pitched around. The next best hitter is Tad Iguchi. (Guillen cracked me up when he said that Iguchi would hit 30 homers if he wasn't batting No. 2, which raises the obvious question, which, of course, went unasked, "Then why are you batting him No. 2, genius?")

The Astros appear a little more solid to me mainly because they have two premium guys in the lineup in Morgan Ensberg, who really surprised me this year, and Lance Berkman. Other Astros like Craig Biggio and Jason Lane have pretty significant home/road splits (where they hit much worse on the road, especially Biggio), but that's not much of a factor here because both parks are a hitting paradise, especially to righty power hitters.

Some people I respect, especially the guys at Baseball Prospectus, really like the Sox pen. I have my doubts. I know that Cliff Politte really shined this year in a (too) limited role, but why did his activity decline so dramatically after the break? Fatigue? Injury? There was appreciable decline in the numbers across the board and he gave up six homers after the break, too. Bobby Jenks pitched well but wasn't tested in the ALCS because of all the complete games. Bobby Jenks is a great story and had a second half very comparable to Brandon Lidge. But will Jenks be able to harness his control (which had been a problem during his minor league career) when the crowd is in an October tizzy? There's more risk with Jenks.

The Astros don't have a lefty in the pen and that's a problem against the White Sox. The Sox have lefties Damaso Marte (who was terrible during the regular season) and converted starter Neal Cotts, who was very good throughout 2005.

Both benches are bad, but the White Sox have perhaps the worst bench of any World Series team in memory. It gets a little better for them when Carl Everett can come off the bench in the NL, but their lack of depth is more likely to be exposed in games where the pitchers hit. If the games in Houston go into extra innings, which you can definitely see happening at least once or twice, it's advantage Astros.

I'm a sucker for the storyline here, which is 1917 right after 1918 last year with the Red Sox. Joe Jackson right after Babe Ruth. The Black Sox right after the Bambino. It's interesting to note how much of the story with the Black Sox is open to interpretation. Was Jackson in on it? Did he confess? Did baseball know about it before the Series even started (chosing to cover it up)? Was the Series fixed or just an odd game or two (and is that even a material distinction)? There may be some answers in a new book, Burying the Black Sox, but the author did not distinguish himself on Olbermann's show last night.

Net OPS give a slight edge to the White Sox. I think the homefield advantage is significant (and it's so silly that it gets decided by the stupid All Star game). White Sox in 6.
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