Super Bowl Odds

Vegas feels comfortable enough with the lay of the land after the bulk of free agency and the NFL Draft to issue pre- preseason Super Bowl odds. These are odds to WIN the Super Bowl. So, if you bet the Niners hoping for the 250-to-1 payoff and they lose to the Pats come February, well then you're sh*t out of luck. Thanks for playing.

The Niners are the longests odds on the board. But after Giacomo wins the Derby as a 50-1 shot, people are understandbly greedy. Still, 250-1 isn't long enough to take a shot on San Fran. After the Niners, you have the Browns and Dolphins at 110-1 and 100-1 respectively.

You're better off burning a $100 bill than betting it on those two dogs.

Then we drop down to the Cardinals and Titans at 75-1. I like 'Zona at these odds because it's in a weak division and the Eagles are really the only iron-clad Super Bowl contender in the NFC.

Then you have the Bucs, Giants and Bears at 50-1. You know how the Stat Power Index (see link on left) views the Bucs. Tampa was a borderline playoff team according the Index. Their scoring differential supported such a ranking (at least in the NFC). The coach is good. Griese could be serviceable. I like them as the best Giacomo on the board.

The Texans are next at 45-1, which is surprising as they were a bit of a sweetheart last summer. I'm not loving that play, however. I don't like the offensive line or pass rush.

Working our way up from the team's with the shortest odds, you have the Pats and Eagles at 6-1 each. Obviously the Pats are hurt by sharing a conference with Vegas' third most likely Super Bowl winner, the Colts at 8-1. I guess it would be possible for the Colts to beat the Pats in Indy. Personally, I think they've burned too much cap resources on offense and should have said goodbye to Edgerrin and gone the Vikings route.

The second shortest odds in the NFC are the Falcons and Panthers. I like Carolina but the Falcons are never going to win anything until Michael Vick learns to throw the football (in other words, probably never). Atlanta will be .500 this year after their very lucky 2004. Call me crazy, but the play I like best in the NFC is the Vikings at 25-1; their defense looks pretty good on paper and I like their draft.

The Ravens (18-1) are viewed by Vegas as being better than the Jets (20-1). That has to be due to betting patterns because the Ravens don't have anything even resembling a QB and Ray Lewis, as Dr. Z told me on Draft Saturday, has been reduced to a pile jumper. In other words, he gets in on the action once the play has already been stopped.