More on OPS and the Baseball Playoffs
(An update to my column that I do for Grand Rapids, with current OPS team stats)
It seems incredibly obvious that the teams with the greatest advantage in slugging and generating baserunners relative to what their pitchers allow are more likely to win the most games. Still, I'm unaware of anyone correlating OPS differential to winning percentage.
So this test drive is just for fun. Take it to your nearest off-shore casino and you might end up like my friend who lost his rent last year going the wrong way on "Alien vs. Predator."
That disclaimer aside, the best AL team according to this stat is the Indians. In fact, the Indians are No. 1 in baseball in OPS differential (.776 for /.701 allowed). Stop chuckling and note that Cleveland is 8-2 over the last 10 games, has the majors' second-best road record and is neck and neck with the Yanks (.805/.761) for the wildcard. Our analysis suggests the ChiSox (seven games up in the Central) have been lucky, as they are only fifth best in the Junior Circuit (.739/.703). OPS differential likes the A's (.746/.684) to extend their lead over the Angels (.733/.714). The Yankees (.805/.761) have a slight edge on the Red Sox (.819/.780) in the East, but that might not be enough to overcome the three-game lead Boston holds in the loss column. Again, given the Indians dominance, they're the OPS pick to win the wildcard.
The best NL team in this stat is St. Louis (.765/.707). But the Mets (.742/.740) are second, ahead of Atlanta. Given the Braves five-game edge in the loss column, the Mets seem most likely to emerge from the wildcard scramble. The Phillies (.750/.754) and Nationals (.707/.723) are in minus OPS territory, which strongly suggests a September fade. Remember, someone has to win the West and the Padres are the best there in OPS, though predictably mediocre overall (.730/.735). Houston (.726/.798) sits at fourth-best in the NL, well behind the wildcard-bound Mets.
It seems incredibly obvious that the teams with the greatest advantage in slugging and generating baserunners relative to what their pitchers allow are more likely to win the most games. Still, I'm unaware of anyone correlating OPS differential to winning percentage.
So this test drive is just for fun. Take it to your nearest off-shore casino and you might end up like my friend who lost his rent last year going the wrong way on "Alien vs. Predator."
That disclaimer aside, the best AL team according to this stat is the Indians. In fact, the Indians are No. 1 in baseball in OPS differential (.776 for /.701 allowed). Stop chuckling and note that Cleveland is 8-2 over the last 10 games, has the majors' second-best road record and is neck and neck with the Yanks (.805/.761) for the wildcard. Our analysis suggests the ChiSox (seven games up in the Central) have been lucky, as they are only fifth best in the Junior Circuit (.739/.703). OPS differential likes the A's (.746/.684) to extend their lead over the Angels (.733/.714). The Yankees (.805/.761) have a slight edge on the Red Sox (.819/.780) in the East, but that might not be enough to overcome the three-game lead Boston holds in the loss column. Again, given the Indians dominance, they're the OPS pick to win the wildcard.
The best NL team in this stat is St. Louis (.765/.707). But the Mets (.742/.740) are second, ahead of Atlanta. Given the Braves five-game edge in the loss column, the Mets seem most likely to emerge from the wildcard scramble. The Phillies (.750/.754) and Nationals (.707/.723) are in minus OPS territory, which strongly suggests a September fade. Remember, someone has to win the West and the Padres are the best there in OPS, though predictably mediocre overall (.730/.735). Houston (.726/.798) sits at fourth-best in the NL, well behind the wildcard-bound Mets.
Entry #112550014252076651 posted by Catherine Salfino at 10:53 AM
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