YPA Plays

On a dare from good friend Chris Liss, my editor at RotoWire, I'm trying to call my shots when it comes to YPA as a predictive tool.

Like Babe Ruth in the 1932 World Series, I'm pointing to the centerfield bleachers. I see six games this week where the Vegas line is six points or more out of whack with what YPA says. These games amount to YPA Best Bets. I won't tell you how much out of whack each line is because the results are startling and because I'm still tweaking with the system of converting into points relative YPA differential.

(This differential is the degree to which each team passes relative to how it defends the pass; not how its opponent defends the pass. This differential is then compared to the differntial achieved thus far by the opposition. The objective is to predict not just whether but by how much teams will outperform, or underperform, their weekly opponent in passing efficiency.)

The Week 7 YPA Plays are:

Bills (+6)
Giants (-6.5)
Vikings (-7)
Falcons (+4)
Cowboys (+3)
Broncos (-6)

YPA says the above teams cover EASILY. Of course, I'll take any win any way. Assessment (or post mortem) to follow soon.