Talking RB Blues
First of all, I'd like to thank Rutherford, New Jersey for not honoring Columbus Day and holding school today so that I may have the peace that makes this column possible.
The running backs are driving everyone crazy this year.
Disappointment abounds at the top of every league's draftboard. McAllister has been hurt. Clinton Portis has struggled in the red zone and really hasn't done much at all since his first carry of 2004. Ahman Green is averaging one yard less per carry than in '03 and hasn't been the scoring machine he was in last year, either. Jamal Lewis is gone now for three weeks if you include the bye. Kevan Barlow (I'm sorry for that tout, really) has been in a funk all year and has had more MRIs than TDs. (Thanks again, Dave, for that comparison). Fred Taylor is far below last year's rushing pace and, of course, still can't score. Stephen Davis was the one 30-year-old RB you should have avoided. Lee Suggs was hurt worse than we all thought and really isn't any better than William Green. Rudy Johnson is getting his yards but struggling near the goal line, as was the case last year. Circumstances keep intervening in Minnesota and Denver, preventing any back from taking charge of those plum jobs. Brian Westbrook is a bust if you're in a TD league, as Terrell Owens is killing him. Duce Staley has been the bomb between the 20s but then St. Jerome ghouls all the TDs. Kevin Jones showed only brief flashes before suffering his high ankle sprain. Marshall Faulk keeps walking around like Bruce Willis in "The Sixth Sense," refusing to acknowledge that he's dead and make way for stud-in-waiting Steven Jackson. Julius Jones' season ended before it began, forcing us to submit to heavier douses of Eddie George. Is Travis Henry ever going to score another TD, especially with Willis McGahee now getting a taste? Corey Dillon can't score, either, but anyone who's been paying attention for the last three year knew that. Dominick Davis made those concerns about his durability look prescient. Everything clicked for Justin Fargas backers: Wheatley stunk and then got hurt; but Fargas can't get over his turf toe (an injury that's undoubtedly painful but hard to take seriously when guys like Travis Henry play with broken legs).
Who's happy? The guys who stole the first or second pick and took Tomlinson and Holmes. There was no skill involved there.
Chris Brown owners, but Brown was a major late riser in most leagues and probably required a top-20 pick. Plus, Brown is struggling in the red zone and in short yardage heading into tonight's game.
Edgerrin James owners, of course. But I'm not apologizing for that tout because A) James still lacks explosion and struggles inside the 10, with four TDs in 17 attempts (a absolutely RIDICULOUSLY high number), B) that tout was based on the reasonable assumption that the Colts would go two TEs now that former first-round pick Dallas Clark is healthy (yes, I know that James is averaging more yards with two TEs than in any other formation), and, mainly, C) I'm a stubborn bastard. Okay, okay, I had faulty intelligence on James. But don't blame me. Blame the CIA. Seriously, we're learning as we go with these new metrics, trying to determine what constitutes a reasonable sample size.
Tiki Barber owners need to stop reading right now and give themselves a hand. By eliminating his fumbling problems, he's become a top 10 running back. Who knew the Giants would click like this offensively?
Curtis Martin owners, who aren't quite so happy now that Buffalo stopped the Jets running game cold with just seven defenders and the safeties deep behind them. I spoke to Martin after the Jets game and tried to gain some insight into what's allowed him to sustain this level of productivity 10 years into his career. His answer? "Perserverance, mental toughness and prayer." Now how the hell am I supposed to measure that? Where do I get those prayer stats?
Thomas Jones owners, but your party is about to come to an end unless Jonathan Quinn is a real NFL QB, which looks to be about about 10-to-1 against right now.
Warrick Dunn owners, but Dunn seems to be vanishing right before our eyes due to fatigue and/or nagging injuries. Remember, he had only 530 carries the three prior years combined.
I do think that there are opportunities to pick guys off at the position. Mewelde Moore just helped me win a game in my tout league. Aaaron Steckler rewarded owners when McAllister was out. Artose Pinner had a good game yesterday for Detroit. Jonathan Wells stepped capably for D. Davis. And then we have Reuben Droughns, the former undersized fullback (much like Mike Anderson) who absolutely ran wild yesterday. The ability to find running backs in-season is something that I think is always underrated, especially in the tout community. It argues for passing on some of our reaches and taking WRs like Andre Johnson, who we all knew was primed for takeoff.
I managed to catch the bulk of the action yesterday from the press box. I was happy to see my YPA stat worked again in picking games, as the teams with the stronger passing games heading into Sunday's game (measured this way) were 8-5 against the spread. (Yeah, the Bills weren't better than the Jets, but close enough that you had to take the seven points.) And that's 8-5 with heart-brekaing losses with the Texans (who were getting four in OT) and Cardinals (who gave up the late score AND two-point conversion AND lost in OT).
My Week 5 quick takes:
--Marvin Harrison owners can't be happy with Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokely, but that's not going to suddenly change.
--Torry Holt owners like myself should have known better than to trust Mike Martz and tabbed sure-No. 1 Terrell Owens. (Who I ranked higher in the magazine; if I won't listen to me why should anyone else?)
--I know the Bucs are still a kick-ass pass defense, but you can't trust Aaron Brooks or any Saint receiver, especially Dante Stallworth.
--Eric Johnson and Antonio Gates, both top 10 now in targets, need to be started even in non-TE leagues every week. (Are you listening Mr. Salfino?)
--Ben Roethlisberger is the rare rookie QB who looks nothing like a rookie.
--Daunte Culpepper is ridiculously good now that he's found the long ball that he always had in him.
--David Carr is worthy of starting in most leagues and if he keeps is YPA above 8 (it's now above 9), he's a lock to finish top 10 in TD passes (especially with that defense) and likely well higher.
--Marc Bulger and the Rams really proved something in bouncing back off the deck against a very formidable Seahawk secondary. Bulger's YPA alone makes him worthy of a big upgrade.
--Joe Gibbs is off to a start in his second career that's eerily similar to his that of his first, when he began 0-5 before following that up with a 30-6 run that included a Super Bowl victory. But I'm tired of carrying Gibbs' water and refuse to predict anything similar going forward.
The running backs are driving everyone crazy this year.
Disappointment abounds at the top of every league's draftboard. McAllister has been hurt. Clinton Portis has struggled in the red zone and really hasn't done much at all since his first carry of 2004. Ahman Green is averaging one yard less per carry than in '03 and hasn't been the scoring machine he was in last year, either. Jamal Lewis is gone now for three weeks if you include the bye. Kevan Barlow (I'm sorry for that tout, really) has been in a funk all year and has had more MRIs than TDs. (Thanks again, Dave, for that comparison). Fred Taylor is far below last year's rushing pace and, of course, still can't score. Stephen Davis was the one 30-year-old RB you should have avoided. Lee Suggs was hurt worse than we all thought and really isn't any better than William Green. Rudy Johnson is getting his yards but struggling near the goal line, as was the case last year. Circumstances keep intervening in Minnesota and Denver, preventing any back from taking charge of those plum jobs. Brian Westbrook is a bust if you're in a TD league, as Terrell Owens is killing him. Duce Staley has been the bomb between the 20s but then St. Jerome ghouls all the TDs. Kevin Jones showed only brief flashes before suffering his high ankle sprain. Marshall Faulk keeps walking around like Bruce Willis in "The Sixth Sense," refusing to acknowledge that he's dead and make way for stud-in-waiting Steven Jackson. Julius Jones' season ended before it began, forcing us to submit to heavier douses of Eddie George. Is Travis Henry ever going to score another TD, especially with Willis McGahee now getting a taste? Corey Dillon can't score, either, but anyone who's been paying attention for the last three year knew that. Dominick Davis made those concerns about his durability look prescient. Everything clicked for Justin Fargas backers: Wheatley stunk and then got hurt; but Fargas can't get over his turf toe (an injury that's undoubtedly painful but hard to take seriously when guys like Travis Henry play with broken legs).
Who's happy? The guys who stole the first or second pick and took Tomlinson and Holmes. There was no skill involved there.
Chris Brown owners, but Brown was a major late riser in most leagues and probably required a top-20 pick. Plus, Brown is struggling in the red zone and in short yardage heading into tonight's game.
Edgerrin James owners, of course. But I'm not apologizing for that tout because A) James still lacks explosion and struggles inside the 10, with four TDs in 17 attempts (a absolutely RIDICULOUSLY high number), B) that tout was based on the reasonable assumption that the Colts would go two TEs now that former first-round pick Dallas Clark is healthy (yes, I know that James is averaging more yards with two TEs than in any other formation), and, mainly, C) I'm a stubborn bastard. Okay, okay, I had faulty intelligence on James. But don't blame me. Blame the CIA. Seriously, we're learning as we go with these new metrics, trying to determine what constitutes a reasonable sample size.
Tiki Barber owners need to stop reading right now and give themselves a hand. By eliminating his fumbling problems, he's become a top 10 running back. Who knew the Giants would click like this offensively?
Curtis Martin owners, who aren't quite so happy now that Buffalo stopped the Jets running game cold with just seven defenders and the safeties deep behind them. I spoke to Martin after the Jets game and tried to gain some insight into what's allowed him to sustain this level of productivity 10 years into his career. His answer? "Perserverance, mental toughness and prayer." Now how the hell am I supposed to measure that? Where do I get those prayer stats?
Thomas Jones owners, but your party is about to come to an end unless Jonathan Quinn is a real NFL QB, which looks to be about about 10-to-1 against right now.
Warrick Dunn owners, but Dunn seems to be vanishing right before our eyes due to fatigue and/or nagging injuries. Remember, he had only 530 carries the three prior years combined.
I do think that there are opportunities to pick guys off at the position. Mewelde Moore just helped me win a game in my tout league. Aaaron Steckler rewarded owners when McAllister was out. Artose Pinner had a good game yesterday for Detroit. Jonathan Wells stepped capably for D. Davis. And then we have Reuben Droughns, the former undersized fullback (much like Mike Anderson) who absolutely ran wild yesterday. The ability to find running backs in-season is something that I think is always underrated, especially in the tout community. It argues for passing on some of our reaches and taking WRs like Andre Johnson, who we all knew was primed for takeoff.
I managed to catch the bulk of the action yesterday from the press box. I was happy to see my YPA stat worked again in picking games, as the teams with the stronger passing games heading into Sunday's game (measured this way) were 8-5 against the spread. (Yeah, the Bills weren't better than the Jets, but close enough that you had to take the seven points.) And that's 8-5 with heart-brekaing losses with the Texans (who were getting four in OT) and Cardinals (who gave up the late score AND two-point conversion AND lost in OT).
My Week 5 quick takes:
--Marvin Harrison owners can't be happy with Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokely, but that's not going to suddenly change.
--Torry Holt owners like myself should have known better than to trust Mike Martz and tabbed sure-No. 1 Terrell Owens. (Who I ranked higher in the magazine; if I won't listen to me why should anyone else?)
--I know the Bucs are still a kick-ass pass defense, but you can't trust Aaron Brooks or any Saint receiver, especially Dante Stallworth.
--Eric Johnson and Antonio Gates, both top 10 now in targets, need to be started even in non-TE leagues every week. (Are you listening Mr. Salfino?)
--Ben Roethlisberger is the rare rookie QB who looks nothing like a rookie.
--Daunte Culpepper is ridiculously good now that he's found the long ball that he always had in him.
--David Carr is worthy of starting in most leagues and if he keeps is YPA above 8 (it's now above 9), he's a lock to finish top 10 in TD passes (especially with that defense) and likely well higher.
--Marc Bulger and the Rams really proved something in bouncing back off the deck against a very formidable Seahawk secondary. Bulger's YPA alone makes him worthy of a big upgrade.
--Joe Gibbs is off to a start in his second career that's eerily similar to his that of his first, when he began 0-5 before following that up with a 30-6 run that included a Super Bowl victory. But I'm tired of carrying Gibbs' water and refuse to predict anything similar going forward.
Entry #109749676106302615 posted by Catherine Salfino at 7:49 AM
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