Does YPA Really Work?

This all started as a joke, really. But 30-10-1 with the formula heading into tonight's game is starting to make a believer out of me. (And Dave, who is using $100 bills now to blow his schnoz after the beating he's given his bookies the last two weeks. Of course, I kid, Mr. Government. We really mean "units" here, not dollars.)

Who did we lose with this week? The Seahawks (who managed to lose the battle of YPA only after a last minute bomb by Tom Brady) and the Bengals (who are lost in the wilderness with blind man Carson Palmer). Tonight's pick, the Bucs, was also shakey, as we are again weighting defensive prowess over offensive prowess because of their relative degrees. I don't like hitching my dreams to Brian Griese's wagon. Of course, if I win, I knew it all along.

Honestly, I don't think YPA is nearly this good an indicator. However, I do believe that with the proper statistical metrics, one could use YPA as a foundation for predicting games with 60 percent accuracy, which is pretty damn good. Our method is (too?) simple, looking at the differential of each team and assigning a strength to it relative to the spread. But it's as much art as science at the moment and that makes me uncomfortable.

My initial take is that the Jets are in for a long day in New England come Sunday. This offense just doesn't have enough dimension to it with the lack of a real, WR-driven downfield passing game. I think the Pats will smother the Jets underneath game and dare Pennington to beat them downfield. I don't like the idea of a team learning new tricks after five games. The Jets still are weak at the corners, and put a lot of pressure on them with all the blitzing. I see New England winning by at least a TD.

Is Daunte Culpepper friggin' unbelievable or what? Three five-TD games already. On pace for 57 TD passes. Talk about fantasy numbers. The Vikings seem like they're playing Madden. I'm waiting for defenses to just walk off the field, protesting loudly, "This game cheats!"

Mike Shanahan can go to hell. Why not bring back Terrell Davis and Otis Armstrong and Floyd Little back and see if they can rumble for 175 yards, too? He just likes making monkeys out of anyone who takes fantasy football seriously, I'm convinced. You're not playing against us, Mike. You're playing against whoever you're playing against that week. Work with us. We're not the enemy. Let's give peace a chance, okay?