Pianow's Championship Game Thoughts

Off the top of my head, in no particular order . . .

One so-so game, one unreal game. Congrats to the Bears, the Colts, and their fans.

If I ran the New Orleans secondary, and I don't, I would have had Mike McKenzie on Bernard Berrian and I'd take my chances with Fred Thomas on Muhsin Muhammad. When will teams realize that Berrian is the guy who's more likely to hurt you?

Okay, I'll just say it: I'm glad we don't have to look at Reche Caldwell's eyes anymore.

Joe Theisman was trying to make the point today that a Super Bowl ring means more than a Hall of Fame ring. Sounds nice, but I don't buy it. C'mon, would you rather have Dan Marino's career, or Trent Dilfer's? Warren Moon's or Brad Johnson's? Dan Fouts's, or Doug Williams's? Jim Kelly's, or Jim Plunkett's? Most won't say it publicly, but when the career is over, the HOF spot would be more satisfying. (Moon, incidentally, never made it to a Championship Game in the NFL.)

Very underrated special-teams guy Sunday: Hunter Smith. He had some clutch holds that for the most part were ignored.

A play that will get forgotten in the Indy game is the Brady TD throw to Gaffney. When you see it again, watch Brady's unreal pocket awareness. At one point he actually slides the ball behind his back to avoid a rusher, and it's not for style, it's the right play to make.

You're probably sick of the Peyton Manning gush-fest but I have to get in two things. One, his ability to buy extra time and make ad-lib plays in and out of the pocket has improved significantly. Two, Manning understood the importance of scoring AND running clock on the final Indy possession, which underscores even more how he gets it.

I was shocked Drew Brees lost his mind for a second on that end-zone throwaway. That's not who he is.

Who choreographs for Reggie Bush? He's fun to watch, not that I'd punctuate my scores that way. Okay, I can't, never could. Still, tone it down a bit, son?

Ticky-tack calls at critical points always annoy me, and that New England personal foul on the last Indy drive was ticky-tack. Let the players decide the game.

Devin Hester, meet Indy's kick return coverage. Hmm.

I've yet to meet anyone who likes Sean Salisbury's work. I'm not asking for much. One person.

As much as my New England heart misses Adam Vinatieri, there can be no doubt that letting him walk was the right move. Later, the Pats find Gostkowski in the draft, and he's been fantastic (both on kickoffs and on field goals). And while I don't agree with how the Patriots chose to replace Deion Branch, letting him go (and getting a No. 1 pick) was clearly the right move, too.

Of course, you can't fault the Colts for trading in Vanderjagt for Vinatieri, either.

- 30 -

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Inside Peyton's Head

People are talking about many things involving the very fascinating Jets-Colts game yesterday. But the play that actually won the game for the Colts is getting little attention.

It caught my eye in real time, from high above the field in the press box. And it placed in sharp relief all of the qualities that make Peyton Manning a great QB (and the word "great" is so often misused in sports).

First, let's set the stage. Fourth quarter, Jet lead 28-24. Colts have the ball on the Jets 35 and it's third and six after a Manning overthrow to Wayne that was tipped and almost intercepted by Vilma. There's 1:26 left and the Colts have no timeouts. These quotes from Manning are from my convesation with him after the game in a suprisingly uncrowded Colts locker room.

"When I came to the line of scrimmage and read the defense, I was certain that I'd be able to run for the first down if I needed to. It seemed sure to be open, so that was my plan on that play."

Manning took the snap from the shotgun five yards back. The Jets rush three, with OLB Brian Thomas seemingly in man coverage against tight end Bryan Fletcher. Manning takes two steps back and, without even looking at a wide reciever and facing no pressure, dashes up the middle. But Thomas has peeled off of Fletcher and is the fourth rusher, forcing Manning to the middle of the field.

"I saw a flash of color in front of me and determined that I couldn't run."

What was this? Was it thinking? Had he calculated something consciously and come to a reasonable decision based on his view of probability at that time?

"It's not thinking," Manning said. "There's no time to think after the ball is snapped. When I come to the line of scrimmage and read the defense, that's when I'm thinking. Post-snap, it's pure reaction."

The Colts blocking scheme hadn't accounted for Thomas. But Manning instinctively runs to the back of his nearest lineman, creating a blocker for himself. But his lineman loses Thomas in the confusion and the Jet defender has a clear path to Manning. He's five feet away and Manning doesn't even have his arm cocked to throw. But Thomas hesitates for a split second, the split second that separates defeat and victory. He doesn't know whether to make the tackle or get his arms up to deflect the pass. He ends up doing neither as Manning, in a mere six frames of videotape, goes from runner to thrower and zips a perfect out to a wide-open Marvin Harrison at the Jets 16. First down. Game, essentially, over.

The ability to read defenses, studious preparation that allows for improvisational genius without the need for conscious thought, a lightening quick release, heightened awareness due to perfect arousal without fear despite large men bearing down on him with malicious intent and, finally, textbook mechanics and accuracy even while on the move on essentially a broken play. A magnificent play defining a magnificent player.

Some other notes. Manning said that the Jets blitzed him "maybe five times" all day after blitzing the Bills on about 50 percent of passing plays the week before. He also said the Jets were sitting back in deep zones and if teams do that against him, he's determined to run the football until they come out of it. Why would anyone ever play Peyton Manning any other way?

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On The Couch: Week 3

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Manning had those deep ins to Burress all day last year in Seattle and went to the well again into triple coverage and got picked. See it, Eli, before you throw it.

A fade is not a good call on fourth and two, Minnesota.

A huge drop by Williamson really did in the Vikings. It would have set them up for an easy tying field goal.

Lee Evans stepped up big in garbage time.

Rex Grossman really passed maybe his first big test as a QB with that TD drive near the end after the critical mistake. Win or lose, and let's see how the Vikings and Brad Johnson respond.

I swear I was thinking last week that the pop-op onsides kick is over and teams should kick it really slow and dare the defense to touch it with everyone ready to blast him. Your goal should be to kick the ball 10 yards and one inch. The Bills just did that, basically.

Obviously, Houshmandzadeh is back. Kevan Barlow limped off, but Cedric Houston came in, not Leon Washington, for the TD.

All the teams that ran the ball down the opponents throat are going to lose: Steelers, Jaguars, Bills. I love when this happens. Teams that pass the ball down the opponents throat never lose the game they're doing it unless the opponent is doing it, too.

Dierdorf says that the Colts miss Edgerrin James because "he was such a powerful goal-line runner." Of course, James was always among the worst in the NFL at converting short-yardage and goal-line carries.

Manning is mad at the crowd, which is booing after a second non-call on pass interfernence on Marvin Harrison in or near the end zone.

These games turn around so fast in the NFL. Within one minute, real time: muffed punt leads to short Carson Palmer TD, McGahee can't get it in from in close again and the Bills try a stupid option play with the QB, who gets sacked on third down, Antoine Winfield retuns a pick for a TD in a game where the Vikings can't muster any consistent offense, turning a 9-6 deficit to a 13-9 lead.

Levi Jones limping off for the Bengals is really bad news for Carson Palmer and the Bengals, who now have a rookie at LT.

I stand corrected. Losman looks Evans' way on interceptions.

Roethlisberger does not look good at all, which should not surprise given his summer.

Clinton Portis doesn't have to worry about T.J. Duckett taking away goal-line carries if Duckett is inactive every week, which he's been twice because he doesn't play special teams. Of course, this makes you wonder why the Redskins traded for Duckett in the first place.

Simms just said the Steelers had four or five runs in their playbook this week so they could practice those plays and not have to think about them. This is such a huge point and something I noted last week when Jim Fassel said the Ravens liked a play so much they ran it two and maybe three times. These coaches are too hard-working for their own good. They thicken the playbook but don't understand how thinking during athletic is very often counterproductive. It has to be second nature.

Brunell now 21-for-21, which helps your QB rating.

The holding call in the back out of the backfield on third and 20 (Jonathan Vilma) really bugs me.

Well, Willie Parker is clearly the short-yardage back in Pittsburgh after the fourth-and-1 score.

Jets S Kerry Rhodes has caused three fumbles on sacks now in the last three-plus quarters of football. The last one resulted in a TD. He's going to Hawaii because that's just one of the many things he does very well.

Wind is really a factor in Pittsburgh, as it was last week in Denver. It's very odd for weather to play a role in September. Chris Henry just got blasted by Ryan Clark on a ball that shouldn't have been thrown by Palmer.

That was a bad time for the Jaguars to go three and out.

I'd go get the Jets Leon Washington if I was in a really deep league. I always like those Florida State guys because they only recruit the best. The key is Washington being on the field on third down and getting 10 carries as a change-of-pace back. I think that's the Jets near-term plan.

Dallas Clark could have called a fair catch on the TD reception.

Dierdorf just talked about the Colts rushing yards (10 at halftime) as being the key to this game. "I'm not sure the Colts can just throw the ball on every play." Beats running for one yard! The Colts have to soften teams up with the passing game, spread the field, bu they're short at receiver now with Stokley out. The Colts just scored on an 80-yard drive where they had two rushing yards as I'm writing.

Also officially be very worried about Ronnie Brown and Lee Evans (who Losman isn't even looking to).

Officially (at least at this moment): The Dolphins stink, the Jets are feisty, the Texans are the worst team in football, Mark Brunell is safe as starting QB, the Steelers championship defense is in trouble.l

Sharper just dropped an easy TD on a pick that should-have-been by Grossman, who doesn't look sharpe in the glimpses I'm catching.

Okay, that third-down catch and run out of crosstown traffic was so amazing by Jones-Drew that even I almost want to say it was Sanders-esque.

Maurice Jones-Drew. I feel like saying I told you so. But don't get too excited with the Barry Sanders comparisons. No one is Barry Sanders.

Carson Palmer says he still feels rusty and "very unathletic," according to Simms. He says he's not able to get his feet right when throwing.

Roethlisberger made a really bad decision in the end zone, throwing a pick that took sure points off the board in a game Pittsburgh is dominating. Houshmandzadeh just got hurt again, limping off the field.

The Jaguars are disrupting the timing of the Colts passing game. You can tell if an offensive is in synch and if the playcalling is good by how many times the QB throws to his first read. If he's looking off repeatedly, you have problems. No first-read passes yet for Manning today.

I like the way the the Vikings are attacking the Bears with their passing game. Williamson is impressive, even though he just fumbled (pending review). Supposedly wasn't conclusive. Whatever.

The Colts have scored first in 27 of the last 33 games, including today.

This game is going just the way the Jaguars drew it up. Peyton is chopping his steps after he settles into the pocket, always an indicator that he's too hyper and not sharp. He'll have to settle down.

The interception on the opening drive is bad news for Chris Simms, with Jon Gruden chomping at the bit, seemingly, to scapegoat him for the team's offensive ills.

J.P. Losman just showed how you beat the blitz with the quick hitter to Roscoe Parrish that went the distance versus the Jets.

I think Fred Taylor is going to have a big game today.

Oh, have Bengals-Steelers recording on the other tuner. But this is a week you need that great NFL Shortcuts package.

Keeping my notes here again because I type far faster than I write and I can't really read my own writing. However, I may fade again by 4 p.m. Ferris may take over then, if he's back from the sports bar.

On the big screen, Jaguars vs. Colts. The antenna televisions have Bears-Vikings and Jets-Bills (my local game, plus I always watch the Jets).

This is a really good slate of games, though a little top heavy.

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On The Couch: Week 2

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Oh, one more thing. The time has come to get Joseph Addai. And DeAngelo Williams, too. Don't move a mountain. But be willing to move a small hill.

Okay, ran out of steam in the p.m., as I'm fighting an illness. So, we're doing the 4 p.m. games all at once. But first, the Giants left me speechless. There are more flags with this team than any Giants fan cares to admit right now. New York can't protect the QB and can't stop the pass. Still, they win. Somehow. I don't want to be an Eagle walking around Philly tonight. Watch out for the flying Cheeze Whiz. In fact, pray it is only Cheez Whiz.

Michael Turner is the latest RB to audtion in "Searching for L.J.," which is playing in the dreams and ruminations of every fantasy owner in a deep league nationwide. 138 yards on 13 carries is pretty sweet. I have to catch the deatails. The Titans stink, clearly. But, if the unthinkable ever happened to L.T., well.... We don't even want to think about that.

Antonio Bryant is exciting me even with the Diva act he pulled at halftime. All the receivers are in their own little world. They think about themselves a lot. But they have to because a receiver without a ball is like a singer without a song. Now, I drafted Bryant everywhere, so I'm questioning my objectivity. I'm trying really hard not to get too excited. But it's hard. Remember, he had a 52-yard TD called back last week. Alex Smith has grown up, like Eli last year.

Not impressed by the Cardinals and Kurt Warner. Tough spot. Wasn't necessarily looking for the win. But expected the offense to put some scare into the Seattle defense and they never did.

The Jets did great blitzing Brady, like I thought they would. But they waited too long to do it. New England had the kind of late drive on the road that you expect from a great team. Would have liked to see more consistency from Chad. But he did enough to prove that we can't yet rule out a return all the way back to his fabulous 2002 form. Jerricho Cotchery is a nice little player who is built like a running back and runs like one after the catch.

Is anyone really eating the fried macaroni and cheese we're seeing in all those commercials? If you are, you should be ashamed of yourself.

Larry Johnson stepped up today and proved he's a great player. Don't talk to me about the first-quarter fumble, as he was fighting for yards after being put in an impossible position by Herm on 3rd and 5. Tatum Bell can't be an everydown back? Why does Mike Shanahan seem so sure of this? He did well in that role with a separated shoulder in 2004.

Brad Smith is running a gadget play this week. But Belichick knows that, right?

Herm runs it again on third and five by the goal line? He can't blame it on "communications problems" again, can he? (L.J. fumbled.)

Delhomme careless with the ball again on an OT blitz and this time he loses it and doesn't recover. If they call this a tuck play, I'll barf. That was not a pass! Let's see if reason prevails? Nope. Tuck. What a joke.

I like Brian Baldinger. I've talked to him once for about an hour. But he said something stupid just now, that the Panthers, who won the OT toss, should have kicked off. Here's why that's dumb. The receiving team has a better chance to win in a vacuum. There is no win indoors. Once you get to your minus 30, you have no field position edge. And what happens if the guy runs the kickoff back 50 yards?

Julius Peppers is having a game that looks like a video game cheat. He's just making it look so easy on every snap, just pummeling Brad Johnson.

Jake Delhomme has a little Brett Favre in him. And I mean that in a bad way. Tossing the ball away to avoid the sack in such an awkward way that it was ruled a fumble in the final two minutes of a tie game? He's lucky his lineman recovered. But, silly.

Knew Ryan Longwell was going to throw for a TD this week. Seriously, if you start a kicker and he throws a TD pass, you should win your game. Automatic. And I'm not saying that because I own Longwell, I swear.

The Texans coaches think rookie TE Owen Daniels can be a very productive player, we're told after he just scores. They're going to be throwing a lot.

Not impressed by anything the Ravens have done this year. Sorry. And stop dancing, Ray Lewis, against the backup QB on the worst team in football.

Giants pass defense: Back to the drawing board, boys.

Kitna 17-for-19 against the Bears? For 180+ yards and no picks? That's impressive even considering the score.

Manning (and when I say "Manning," I mean Peyton) is going to tell us to turn to another game like in the commercial, right? I keep waiting for it. He had a TD pass called back, too.

Lee Evans should have had a 50-yard TD. He was interfered with. But the bad news is that Losman's pass was underthrown enough to make interferring possible.

The Giants are really getting their asses kicked. They and their fans were too satsified with the Colts game. It was a home loss. Not good. And on the heels of that playoff embarassment? Maybe the worst game the Giants have ever played? There's no urgency on this team and there should be.

Sometimes it seems like Daunte Culpepper is playing with a blindfold. What was he looking at on that pick at the end of the first half? How is Miami losing this game? I guess one question answers the other.

The Falcons are playing a college offense. And it's working. They're doing that Texas shotgun. If the defensive end stays wide, Vick hands off to Dunn who has a hole you can drive a truck through. If he crashes down, Vick fakes it and comes around and gets the wide open lane around end. You beat this by hitting the QB on every play no matter what (he his faking as if he still has the ball when he doesn't). Ignore Dunn, kill the QB.

Reggie Wayne dropped an easy TD pass. Addai fumbled on the goal line. This game should be 28-0.

Well, there's another TD to the right by Vick. Just when I was getting excited about a stat.

Another easy TD for Stallworth. It wasn't so much a blown coverage as a terrible attempt to chuck him at the line of scrimmage. Credit Stallworth.

Chad Johnson has taken Wesley Snipes in Demolition Man to heart with that ridiculous blond mowhawk.

Okay, Chris Simms had another pass deflected on the line. What's his problem with this? Too many three-step, timing drops?

Wali Lundy's fumble is bad news if you have Lundy shares.

Giants in the shotgun on first down. You have to love that if you're an Eli Manning owner.

Mike Vick's TD pass to Crumpler last week was his first to the right side of the field since at least 2004; none last year. If you can't throw to your right as a QB, I think you have some problems.

Matt Schobel dropped an easy TD pass but then the Eagles got a break on a non-interception call that could have gone either way. Nope it doesn't, as Westbrook scoots around right end. He's a great player, much better in real life than in fantasy. But he's not built for extensive NFL duty.

Joseph Addai on the board. Nice speed on the catch and run.

Why do announcers always say stuff like, "The Texans only chance today is to run the ball!" Right, maybe they can score 17 points and win a slugfest. Please.

Blown coverage on the Toomer TD. Someone thought they were in zone, the other thought they were in man. Oops.

Palmer is on the board to Kelly Washington, of all people. Washington has some nice size and speed but can't stay healthy.

After the turnover, Manning runs on first, runs on second (for crap, of course) then throws a TD. Peyton, pass to set up the run!

Rudi Johnson runs with much more elusiveness between the tackles than I though he ever would. He's go some hops.

David Carr sacked on the first play. No one cares about your running game, boys. Second play, fumbled snap. Nice start for Carr. Maybe he just stinks.

I like the delay on satellite vs. over the air. I feel like I'm looking back in time.

The Jets have put me in the position now where I'll actually be upset if they get waxed this afternoon. I needed an emotional break from this team. Not a divorce, just a separation. But now I'm racing back into their arms.

They give fantasy picks right now when they're doing the game roundups on Fox? Crazy. Are any of these guys even in leagues? Do they play at all? Just tell us who you think is going to be the game's dominant player and why and we'll figure out the rest.

We're going most recent comment on top as opposed to on the bottom. So, this is reverse order. John Abraham is out. Abraham only plays when he's 100 percent, as the Falcons will find out. Okay, he'll go when he's 95 percent, too. But that's a rarity in the NFL.

This NFL Game Mix is so cool. And being able to get the stats through your TV DVR? Amazing. I need a bigger TV though.

So, I have Game Mix on one tuner. Recording Bills-Dolphins off the regular CBS feed. Have Giants-Eagles on a TV with rabbit ears. And have Texans-Colts ready on the previous channel button. Of course, this is all subject to change. But the only other game that interests me, that I don't think I have a good feel for pre-kickoff, is Panthers-Vikings.

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On The Couch: NFL Week 1

Jeremy Shockey is badly limping after every play. He does this every game, no? And there's a TD catch one play after he hobbled off the field. Is Jeremy a drama queen?

John Madden: "It's always started with the running game with the Colts." Huh? Didn't Peyton Manning throw 50 TD passes a couple of years ago? Madden used to be cool but the game has passed him by. Passing offense and defense wins games and champioships. Period.

Dungy says Addai is 40/60 splitting carries with Dominic Rhodes, who just got into the endzone. I figured Addai would get all short-yardage and goal-line action. Still, I like Addai long-term in '06. He finished off one run really nicely and showed nice hands and awareness on a circle route, not your typical RB dumpoff.

The over/under on Jerious Norwood caries is 150 and I'm going over because the Falcons are going to run Dunn into the ground. They're treating him like they treat Vick; they don't care if either gets hurt because the backups excite (Schaub for Vick).

Mike Bell owners, don't fret. When your guy is out there on fourth and one from the minus-31 in the second quarter and converts, he has the coach's trust.

Chad Pennington, welcome back. It's funny with Culpepper and Pennington. Daunte was viewed as a guy to get becasue he's looking good. But he'll never run the way he did again and that was a big part of his real and fantasy game. What did Chad lose? Arm strength? He never had that to begin with. Heck, I'll root for both to recover, but Pennington, as he's showing, was as good a bad bet to get back to peak form as Daunte.

Vince Young in the QB rotation is smart. Players have to play. Give him a package and let him master it in practice each week. It almost worked against the Jets. I still maintain Young will be great. It cracks me up that Merrill Hoge trashes him after praising "Sick Vick" for years. We KNOW Vick can't throw the football.

Phil Simms says the three-step drop has been mastered by the defenses, who understand how to disrupt the timing and get their arms up to tip a lot of passes. Maybe he's defending his son. I have to check into tipped passes stats. Then, I have to get a life.

Jake Plummer, the one-night stand in Denver.

Tatum Bell's fumble is ominous and won't be forgotten by Shanny, who always looks for a reason to cut Tatum's PT.

Willis McGahee says he's healthy for the first time since his knee surgery and really looks like he can fly now. Very quick on a pass vs. New England, where he split the secondary.

Jim Haslett has 68 blitzes in the game plan versus the Broncos? Context would be nice. But this sounds like an awful lot. I think every one of them is working.

Chiefs first red zone possession of 2006 (the Herm Edwards Era): a run on third and five. Stuffed. Boo!!!!!

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: September 4 - 10

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Jon Garland, P, White Sox: Gets two starts and don't be scared by the first one, at Fenway, where homers are way down this year and the Red Sox will likely be fielding a spring training lineup (no Ramirez or Ortiz).

Delmon Young, OF, Devil Rays: Okay, he threw a bat at an ump. Put it behind you like Tampa Bay has and get this power-hitting speed demon in your lineup immediately.

Bench 'em

Justin Duchscherer, P, A's: He earned some cheap saves for savvy owners, but Huston Street will be immediately returned to the closer's role when he is activated, which will likely be this week.

Manny Ramirez, OF, Red Sox: His knee tendinitis could sideline him a day, a week or the rest of the season. Suspicion from those in the know in Beantown is that the volatile Ramirez is tired of playing this year with the Red Sox no longer playing meaningful games.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Dave Bush, P, Brewers: Has dominated hitters all year, peripherally, with about 3.5 Ks for every walk. Gets two starts this week at home, Dodgers and Astros.

J.D. Drew, OF, Dodgers: Gets an extra game this week and is now batting cleanup for the Dodgers. Maybe the multi-homer game at Arizona will end his year-long power outage.

Bench 'em

Arthur Lee Rhodes, P, Phillies: Tom Gordon appears set to return this week as Phillies closer, moving Rhodes back into a middle-relief role.

Tom Glavine, P, Mets: Gets one start this week in his return back from numbness in his pitching arm. The Mets will baby him with an eye toward October. Glavine has been very shaky since before the all-star break.

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Further Review Post: Battle of the NFL Power Ratings

On my other blog, Further Review, which critically examines opinion/analysis in other places, we see how my RotoAction Stat Power Index ranks vs. the heralded Football Outsiders' DVOA ranking system.

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Interceptions vs. Fumbles as a Winning Stat

NFL stat maestro Bud Goode said long ago that interceptions are three times more costly than lost fumbles and that lumping lost fumbles with interceptions as "turnovers" made as much sense as lumping doubles and homers together under "hits" in baseball.

Of course, this is incredibly counterintuitive. Goode never came up for a reason for the discrepancy. But he speculates that lost fumbles are actually a "power" stat because teams that win more run more in the second half and thus, presumably, fumble more. More important, he said, the conclusion is consistently supported through regression analysis.

Now, I'm no statistician. But I do know my way around a scatterplot. I understand the importance of correlation. But outliers can distort correlation coefficients. For simplicity's sake, let's look at net interceptions, which we track in our Stat Power Index, largely inspired by the work of Mr. Goode, and net fumbles. We'll examine the 10 best and worst teams in each net category and compare records. If lost fumbles are so much less meaningful than interceptions, we should see a poorer correlation to success and failure as reflected in the won-loss records of the leaders and trailers in each group. Because one year can distort, we'll look at 2004, too.

First 2005. The 10 best teams in net fumbles (recovered vs. lost) had a .642 winning percentage. The 10 worst, .422. In net interceptions, the 10 best teams last year had a .675 winning percentage, the 10 worst, .324. Advantage net interceptions, but that does not seem to correspond to a 3-to-1 ratio in relative importance in favor of interceptions.

I understand that Mr. Goode wasn't tracking the net stat, but rather each specific instance of a lost fumble or interception in the context of a game. Still, he nets other stats, such as YPA, so why not do the same with lost fumbles and picks?

Was 2005 an outlier year? In 2004, the 10 best teams in net fumbles had a .585 winning percentage, the 10 best in net picks .675. That's much more significant on the winning side. But net picks did not do as good a job in predicting losers as in 2005, with the trailers in net fumbles coming in at .375 and trailers in net picks actually having more success with a winning percentage of .400.

I was shocked to find that 6 of the 11 teams that at least tied for the top 10 spots in net fumbles repeated the feat in 2005 (when two teams again tied for 10th place). Only four teams that led in net picks in 2004 repeated the feat in 2005. I would have guessed that lost fumbles were more a product of luck than interceptions. But that conclusion is not supported by this small data set. On the other hand, the Saints and Jets were tied for first and third in net fumbles in 2004 (plus-10 and plus-9, respectively), but LAST in 2005 (-10 and -12, respectively). A swing of 20 turnovers can cause a radical swing in won-loss record. Giants fans should be wary, as they led the NFL last year in the stat, at plus-12.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: August 21-27

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Coco Crisp, OF, Red Sox: It's been a season of stops and starts for Crisp, who has been hurt by being placed at the bottom of the Boston lineup. But Crisp is running enough to be a decent fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Craig Monroe, OF, Tigers: He's been on fire and is now cemented at the top of the lineup given the injury to Placido Polanco, who is out indefinitely. The pop has been there all year (now slugging .500 after a batting-average surge).

Bench 'em

Joe Saunders, P, Angels: The latest young gun with a tired wing.
Don't count on the two starts tentatively scheduled for Saunders, who is likely to get extra rest. If he's not rested, pencil him in for a couple rockings.

Jonny Gomes, OF, Devil Rays: He's needed shoulder surgery for months and is now saying he'll have it now only if he can return by spring training. What good does putting it off do? Either way, he's not hitting.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Jake Peavy, P, Padres: He just NOW got his contact lenses he's been expecting since March? Ever hear of Fed Ex? He says he now can finally see the catcher's signs. I'm not making this up.

Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies: Still more a name than a fantasy asset. But he's at least getting his average back up over .300, though the power is likely gone for good.

Bench 'em

Barry Bonds, OF, Giants: He's always hurt and just not productive enough to even mix and match with the decent reserves available in mixed leagues.

Jose Vidro, 2B, Nationals: Yes, he's coming off the disabled list. But he no longer has even middling power and doesn't run at all.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: August 6 - 12

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Javy Lopez, C, Red Sox: He's not likely to hit much better than the injured Jason Varitek (knee surgery), but anyone can get hot for two months and he's in a great lineup.

Cory Lidle, P, Yankees: Gets two starts this week after a stellar debut in 120 degrees of heat index. Everything is seeming to roll the Yankees way right now, so get on board the bandwagon where you can.

Bench 'em

Matt Garza, P, Twins: The Twins are letting him rot in Rochester in favor of minor-league journeyman Mike Smith. They should look towards the Tigers and push young talent more quickly into prominent roles.

Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers: Another second-half fold for Stammerin' Hank (sub-.300 slugging percentage since the All-Star break).

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Matt Murton, OF, Cubs: The power numbers are disappointing, but the at bats should come furiously now that the Cubs are in 2007-mode. Coming off a streak of 15 ribbies in 16 games.

Byung-Hyun Kim, P, Rockies: Coors has mysteriously become the league's best pitcher's park. Kim is on the road this week, but gets two starts and has fired gems his last two outings.

Bench 'em

Jeff Kent, 2B, Dodgers: The oblique strain isn't getting better. Where does he play when he returns, given the acquisition of Julio Lugo, a far superior defender and arguably a better offensive force now, too?

Bronson Arroyo, P, Reds: His last outing was on three-day's rest. That's not going to reverse the poor trend-line of late, as he's quickly regressed to his Red Sox form.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: July 31 - August 5

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Mark Teahen, 3B, Royals: Very quietly has become one of the best slugging third baseman in the majors since his recall in June. He's should be started now in all formats.

Alexis Rios, OF, Blue Jays: Finally back from his staph infection. Put him in immediately and hope he didn't lose his mojo, as he was a top 20 fantasy player before getting sidelined.

Bench 'em

Scott Kazmir, P, Devil Rays: The D-Rays say they're going to trot him out there on Tuesday in Detroit despite the tender shoulder. But they might come to their senses and play it safe.

Torii Hunter, OF, Twins: This would be a miracle recovery from a stress fracture if he were to be activated when eligible on Monday. See if he can play for a week before taking a leap of faith.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Francisco Cordero, P, Brewers: He's been lights-out since April and should immediately settle in as Brewers closer in the weaker-hitting NL.

Josh Barfield, 2B, Padres: The Padres have to move him up in the lineup, as he's hit well over .400 in July with power and speed.

Bench 'em

David Eckstein, SS, Cardinals: He's always looked like the bat boy. Now, he hits like one. Entering the weekend, one RBI in July. Yes, he's still batting .300, but well under .250 this month.

Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies: Finally banged out a couple of hits on Thursday. But he's been a black hole at first base for weeks. Mixed-leaguers can't afford to keep him active while he stumbles to find his lost stroke.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: July 24 - 30

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Fausto Carmona, P, Indians: The new closer in Cleveland, replacing the traded Bob Wickman (Atlanta). Carmona has top-shelf stuff and the Indians are a good team despite the record.

Javier Vazquez, P, White Sox: Rumored to be on the block for some relief help. He's been very unlucky on balls in play. Has three times as many Ks as BBs and gets two starts (Twins, Orioles).

Bench 'em

Alex Rios, OF, Blue Jays: His staff infection has proved a much greater setback than originally believed. He will not travel with the team on Monday, even though he's begun taking batting practice.

Jaret Wright, P, Yankees: He's been decent lately even though he can't get past about 90 pitches. But mixed-leaguers cannot risk a lone start this week in Texas, where the Rangers have always pounded Wright.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Barry Bonds, OF, Giants: The rumored perjury indictment went bust for the government, which threatened to keep pressing the case with a new grand jury. Bonds responded with a long fly ball and homer right after word of the reprieve.

Ben Sheets, P, Brewers: Finally returns to the rotation, barring a last-minute setback (always a risk with Sheets). Set for two starts (Pirates, Reds). Forget the bad '06 ERA and focus on that 28/1 K/BB ratio.

Bench 'em

Luis Gonzales, OF, Diamondbacks: Mouthed off after getting benched against lefties. Hasn't done much this year against righties either and offers owners no speed and little power (seven homers).

Aaron Cook, P, Rockies: He's been very serviceable this year due to pinpoint control. But fortune is likely to turn this week in his one start, at Coors, vs. St. Louis (7.41 career ERA against).

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: July 17-23

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Kevin Mench, OF, Rangers: Nice buy-low candidate, as he'll get regular at-bats due to some All-Star break roster shuffling by Texas.

Milton Bradley, OF, A's: If you're unfortunate enough to own Bradley, you must activate him now because it's not likely going to be long before the next strain or sprain.

Bench 'em

Eric Chavez, 3B, A's: Tendinitis in both forearms does not bode well for a second-half breakout. Chavez says he's focused on the last two months of the season, which rules out the rest of July.

Ambiorix Burgos, P, Royals: Mike MacDougal returns to the closing role. This is good news for Burgos owners, who will no longer be tempted to tolerate all those bad innings by the prospect of a few saves.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Mike Cameron, OF, Padres: San Diego players are lobbying for Cameron to be moved into the three-hole (nine homers and 18 RBI since June 1).

Dontrelle Willis, P, Marlins: Five straight quality starts and 10 in his last 11. More important are the 31 Ks in the last 38 innings (10 walks).

Bench 'em

Pedro Martinez, P, Mets: Now, it's a stomach virus that's causing him to miss his Tuesday start. The Mets are going to treat the rest of the regular season as extended spring training for Pedro, who they want to preserve for October.

Royce Clayton, SS, Reds: The only park that would improve Clayton's power (no homers) is in Williamsport, PA, home of the Little League World Series.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: July 10-16

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Mike Napoli, C, Angels: Who could have seen this coming? Napoli (11 bombs in his first 131 Angel ABs) flashed good power in AA last year, but he was old for the league and K'ed 140 times.

Randy Johnson, P, Yankees: The glass is half empty for disappointed Johnson owners. But lower your expectations and you'll see he still projects as a solid, mixed-league starter the second half.

Bench 'em

Mike Sweeney, 1B, Royals: He's allegedly beginning a rehab assignment soon. First, he gets an epidural. That's fine if you're birthing twins, but not if you plan on swinging a bat in anger a few hundred times this summer.

Javy Lopez, C, Orioles: Will lose his DH spot once Jay Gibbons comes off the DL. Nick Markakis is punch and judy, but is now entrenched as an OF because he's hot and has youth on his side.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Jeff Weaver, P, Cardinals: Yes, I touted him a couple of weeks ago when he was designated for assignment. But he had a 22:2 K/BB ratio in his AL finishing kick. He'll help you now that he's in the NL. Honest.

Eddie Guardardo, P, Reds: He's just about finished and has a torn labrum, but he's closing. Wait for him to reel off a couple of saves and then trade him.

Bench 'em

Morgan Ensberg, 3B, Astros: Just five ribbies the last month. I like him long-term, but he's been moved down in the lineup and should be reserved in mixed leagues.

Paul Lo Duca, C, Mets: The worst all-star this side of Mark Redman. He's now 34 and has always regressed in the second half. Lo Duca no power and offers little defensive value, so his playing time should diminish.

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Mike Tackles Mainstream Sports Media in New Blog

On his new blog, Further Review, Mike throws the challenge flag and puncture media pundits with laser-like scrutiny of their sports analysis.

Be sure to bookmark it and check it out regularly.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: July 3-9

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners: The Seattle third sacker has hit well over .300 with decent power since being moved up to the No. 2 spot in the batting order. On pace for 20-plus steals, Beltre can be safely started in all formats.

Ervin Santana, P, Angels: The subject of trade rumors with the Angles itching to roster phenom Jared Weaver, Santana has been very effective of late and gets two starts this week.

Bench 'em

Jon Lester, P, Red Sox: Gets just one start and is really putting up high pitch counts because of shaky control (six walks per nine innings). Like most rookie starters, Lester's been babied and suddenly find himself on pace for 200 frames.

Jamie Moyer, P, Mariners: He's a useful pitcher to roster even in mixed leagues. But this week, Moyer gets one start against a Angels team that will start five veterans with .300-plus averages versus him.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Mike Cameron, OF, Padres: Flashing the power and speed that his owners were anticipating on draft day. The batting average will continue to be a problem, but he's hot now.

Jake Peavy, P, Padres: He's piling up the strikeouts and has a clean bill of health. A breakout is coming and he gets two starts this week.

Bench 'em

Chuck James, P, Braves: Rookies like James should be active in mixed formats only when they get two starts or one really favorable one. This week, James' one start is against the Cardinals, which doesn't qualify.

Mike Gonzalez, P, Pirates: Had no saves for over two weeks thanks to the Pirates losing streak. He still walks too many (over five passes per nine innings) to add value when not closing.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: June 26 - July 2

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Jhonny Peralta, SS, Indians: He's been on fire since being benched for three-days to clear his head. Has returned to the No. 3 hole in a good Cleveland lineup.

Jeff Weaver, P, Angels: Fantasy baseball has labeled him "the stinky Weaver" (as opposed to phenom brother Jared). But Jeff gets two starts off an impressive three weeks that have seen a tremendous spike in his K-rate (24 punch-outs in 24 innings).

Bench 'em

Justin Verlander, P, Tigers: He says his declining velocity (which is still over 95 MPH) is due to a decrease in excitability. But it's more likely due to an increased workload, which never exceeded 130 innings before '06.

Jeremy Sowers, P, Indians: He's in line for only one start this week. Don't buy him as a top prospect despite the sparking ERA in AAA because he was striking out less than five per nine innings there. That projects to under four in the majors, which is not nearly enough to survive, let alone thrive.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Jose Valentin, 2B, Mets: He's entrenched as starter with an OPS of almost .900. Valentin has raised his average from .214 to .300 since becoming a regular.

Anthony Reyes, P, Cardinals: Reyes was dominant last week against a great White Sox team in his return from AAA, where he was lights out (65 Ks, 8 BBs in 71 innings).

Bench 'em

Chad Billingsley, P, Dodgers: He's laboring as a 21-year-old rookie, which should never surprise. The pitch counts are too high too early and he's not missing enough bats (just four Ks in his first 10 innings).

Moises Alou, OF, Giants: Last week, he complained of not being able to bend over without searing back pain. Expect any returns going forward to be diminishing and make sure he's on your bench until he at least can tie his own shoes.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: June 19 - 25

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Danny Haren, P, A's: Yes, he's got one start in Colorado this week, but also is slated to pitch in San Francisco. Haren's red hot right now, has almost five times as many Ks as BBs and has stopped giving up the long ball.

Rocco Baldelli, OF, Devil Rays: He came back swinging and is playing the field, so there are no worries during the entire inter-league slate. He'll quickly find his 2003 form.

Bench 'em

Todd Jones, P, Tigers: Just awful and has no business closing games in Detroit, as the Tigers have lights-out reliever Joel Zumaya throwing 102 MPH. Through his first 24 innings, Jones had seven strikeouts.

Jason Giambi, DH, Yankees: Troublesome hand and wrist injuries have put his status next week in doubt. With the Yanks traveling to Philly, Giambi can't DH and you can't risk wasting a roster spot in mixed leagues on a pinch hitter.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Greg Maddux, P, Cubs: He hasn't benefitted at all this year from the Cubs sparkling defense. That bad luck on balls in play will be corrected. Plus, he gets two starts this week (at Cleveland, at Minnesota).

Omar Vizquel, SS, Giants: He's a salty sea dog, but you have to respect the stats. With twice as many walks as strikeouts, Vizquel's likely to maintain a plus-.300 average. He'll remain useful in mixed leagues if he steals 15-to-20 bags.

Bench 'em

Shawn Hill, P, Nationals: Doesn't miss enough bats to bet on this week in his lone start against the Boston, which, like all teams, tees off on the in-between stuff.

Cole Hamels, P, Phillies: Even with the Yanks defanged with the losses of Sheffield, Matsui and maybe even Giambi, you don't want your one weekly start to be versus them in that band box in Philly.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: June 12 - 18

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

David DeJesus, OF, Royals: He's being ignored in mixed leagues, but a .900 OPS going forward is possible and he's red hot since returning from the disabled list.


Mark DeRosa, 2B, Rangers: This year's David Delucci. We've mentioned him here before, but he's owned in only one percent of mixed leagues. DeRosa spends a lot of time batting fifth in a potent Rangers lineup and also qualifies in the outfield.

Ervin Santana, P, Angels: The Angels have some decisions to make when Bartolo Colon returns next weekend. But Santana has pitched well and is scheduled for two home starts this week against poor offenses (Royals, Padres).

Bench 'em

Bobby Crosby, SS, A's: He's been battling a sore finger and then was hit in the hand with a pitch (though x-rays were negative). Crosby is sacrificing average for still-not-enough power (striking out about 20 percent of at bats).

Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees: He's a pesky hitter with no speed and pop-gun power. So, he's roster-worthy only in AL-only leagues. Don't buy into the New York hype machine, which is in overdrive after a game-saving catch last week against Boston.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Andy Pettitte, P, Astros: He's been slumping, but is still striking out enough batters. This week, he gets two starts against the worst hitting teams in the majors (at Cubs, Royals).

David Ross, C, Reds: Maybe older catchers suddenly become potent hitters due to seeing all those pitches from the perfect vantage point (behind the dish). With over 1,000 OPS points and six homers in his first 80 at bats, Ross deserves a start in all formats.

Bench 'em

Juan Pierre, OF, Cubs: There's no way mixed leaguers need steals bad enough to roster an OF with five RBI in his first 246 at bats.

Lastings Milledge, OF, Mets: Xavier Nady is so worried about being Wally Pipped by Milledge that he's set to return from an appendectomy on Tuesday (about two weeks early). Will the dynamic Milledge become a bench player? Shipped back to AAA for regular at bats? That's too much uncertainty for mixed leaguers.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: June 5 - 11

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Jorge Cantu, 2B, Devil Rays: He'll be back sometime during the week from his foot injury, so monitor his status closely so as not to lose ABs from this power-hitting middle-infielder.

Rich Harden, P, A's: Finally back from the DL. Yes, he gets only one start this week against the Yankees, but that's not such a tough matchup anymore with both Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield out indefinitely.


Bench 'em

Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers: He's been battling back pain all season. 2005 looks like a career year. He hit .343 on balls in play last year and is now back to his career rate of about .300.

Eric Bedard, P, Orioles: So much for the magic of Leo Mazzone. Bedard's down to about five Ks per game from eight in '05. And he's allowing homers twice as frequently on fly balls (about 15 percent compared to the league average of 10 percent).

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Freddy Sanchez, 3B, Pirates: Ended last week as the NL's leading hitter. GM David Littlefied is on record saying Joe Randa gets his job back when he returns from the DL next week. Manager Jim Tracy strongly suggested he disagrees.

Jorge Julio, P, Diamondbacks: Julio was anointed closer by Arizona until Jose Valverde works out his recent troubles in middle relief. Julio is not reliable, but is able to dominate hitters and is worth a flyer on the small chance he settles in long-term.

Bench 'em

Tony Womack, 2B, Cubs: Like Jason in those "Friday the 13th" movies, Womack just won't stay dead. With the acquisition of Phil Nevin and imminent return of Derrek Lee, Todd Walker moves back to second (sending Womack to the bench).

Oliver Perez, P, Pirates: We liked what we saw in his great start last week against the Astros. But he goes just one time this week and it's in Colorado, so keep him reserved in all formats.

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Royals vs. All-Time Worsts

The Royals currently sit at 11-35 and are on pace for 123 losses. They clearly are the wrost team in baseball this year. But how do they stack up against the all-time worst teams?

There's a lot of subjectivity in this ugly pageant. But we've narrowed the focus down to five teams, with a bias agaisnt selecting one team per era.

We start off with the 1916 Philly A's, who finished 36-117. Their offensive OPS is .612, which seems really bad but was actually 96th percentile in the AL that year. We don't have pitching OPS stats that year. But the A's gave up 1.2 runs more per game than the next most generous team (31 percent more than the Tigers allowed that year). The A's 19 homers were second most in the AL that year. But they allowed 26, second worst. Ace Elmer Myers walked 168 batters (in 315 innings). The A's led the league in walks allowed 715, which will make the sabermatricians happy.

We now sail through this putrescence all the way to 1935, where we come across the stink of the Boston Braves (38-115). Their .671 OPS was 91 percent the league average. But the Phillies had a worse OPS and the Phillies also allowed more runs per game (yet Philly finished 64-89). Ace Frank Frankhouse struck out 64 in 230.7 innings. OF Wally Berger carried the offense with 34 homers and 130 RBI while no other starter hit more than five homers. (Babe Ruth did have six jacks in 72 Abs before retiring in-season.)

Next up, the 1962 Mets at 40-120. 88th percentile with a .643 OPS, tied for Houston for the league's worst mark (but the Colt 45s scored less runs per game). The staff allowed 5.89 runs per game, .79 or 15 percent worse than the next worst team, the Cubbies (5.10), which is nowhere near as bad as the 1916 A's. Roger Craig famously lost 24 games. The Mets actually led the league in offensive walks (sorry, sabermetricians). Richie Ashburn had 81 BBs and 39 Ks on his way to compiling a .424 OBP, a mark topped by only John Olerud and Edgardo Alfonzo in team history.

Our first foray into modernity is the 1979 Blue Jays at 53-109, The 1979 Oakland A's had a worse offense, though Toronto finished in the 81st percentile in OPS. The Blue Jays did allow the most runs per game, but just one-hundredth more than the A's. In fact, you can make a case that Oakland, not Toronto was the worst team in the league that year. Back to Toronto, Bob Bailor started the entire year in right field despite just one homer and a .229 average. Danny Ainge started the most games at second after ending his season with the Celtics, but had a .555 OPS in 308 ABs.

Remember the 2003 Tigers, 43-119? It seems just like yesterday, doesn't it? Again, in the 81st percentile in OPS, but this was by far the worst offensive mark around. The pitching was also putrid, at 5.73 RPG, second worst to Texas. Five offensive starters had a slugging percentage at or below .373. SS Ramon Santiago had over 400 Abs despite a .576 OPS. Finally, we can have some OPS differential to stack up against the Royals. The Tigers team OPS .675/allowed .813 for a differential of minus .138, which is REALLY bad.

Now, back to the future with the 2006 Royals. Net OPS for them is minus .143 (.709 for/.852 against). The Mariners and Angels actually have worse offenses, at least so far. But the Royals do have the worst pitching. Last in K/BB ratio (1.25; Twins are first), 27th in Ks (Mets are first), second to the Blue Jays in most homers allowed. The season totals are a little skewed by the fact that KC (along with Boston) has played the majors fewest games, two less than average at the moment.

We've made as strong case for the 1916 A's as the major's all-time worst team. But the Royals are right there with the 2003 Tigers in the mix. The 1962 Mets are a shade behind, I think. Sure, the pitching was awful, but only half as bad as the 1916 A's relative to the next worst staff. And the Mets offense wasn't even the worst in the league that year (thanks to all those walks, I guess). But most of 2006 remains unwritten. So, let's go Royals! Do something historic in a so-bad-it's-good, "Cocktail" (the movie) kind of way.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: May 29 - June 4

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers: Homered twice on Thursday when he finally returned from a dislocated thumb. He's a good bet to finish with 20 homers and 15 steals and thus should be active in all formats.

Jose Lopez, 2B, Mariners: This year's Jorge Cantu is for real. But Lopez is smooth with the glove, too, and projects long-term at second base. Unlike Cantu, Lopez is a groundball hitter, which helps his average but limits his homer upside to the low 20s.

Bench 'em

Jorge Posada, C, Yankees: At press time, the word from the Bronx was that he wasn't going to be placed on the disabled list due to his torn hamstring tendon. But that doesn't mean he'll be playing this week.

Felix Hernandez, P, Mariners: Seattle screwed with a good thing when they ordered him to stop throwing his devastating slider out of fear that would cause an arm injury. So now it has a healthy starter who's getting raked. Congrats.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Cliff Floyd, OF, Mets: He's too good a hitter to continue slumping. As always, he's battling an assortment of minor injuries. But he's likely in the middle of a hot streak.

Greg Maddux, P, Cubs: The Pitcher of the Month of April has wilted in May. But most players randomly alternate cold and hot streaks. Maddux gets two starts this week (Cincy, at St. Louis).

Bench 'em

Taylor Buchholz, P, Astros: He's too young and owns stuff that's too modest to rely on in mixed leagues despite the shutout last week. Plus, he gets only one start this week (at St. Louis).

Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies: Long-term, he'll bounce back. But he isn't running enough and has been bumped down to the bottom of the lineup. So, mixed leaguers need to explore better options this week.

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Happy Birthday Bob Dylan

There's a great celebration about to take place on WFUV here in New York. To celebrate Bob Dylan's 65th birthday tomorrow, fans are voting for their 15 favorite Dylan songs and stating why. Each person gets three picks. Here were mine:

Girl of the North Country

Dylan's most touching song. For me, it's about the timelessness and persistence of innocent love, which somehow always manages to survive earthly constraints. The song brilliance is in the remoteness of the narrarator, who either can't bear to confront his past or does not want to spoil the memories -- and, really, what's the difference?

Watching the River Flow

So many of the things that drag us down are ephemeral. What could possibly capture this truth better than the image of the spokesman of the counter-culture sitting on a bank of sand and contemplating the relative permanence of a flowing river in the face of rising dissent over the transitory issues of the day.

Visions of Johanna

So vibrant and interesting upon each listening. The song strikes a unique balance between surrealism and realism. Great art makes the strange familiar and the familiar strange and there's no song in the Dylan cannon that accomplishes this better than VOJ.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: May 22 - 28

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Francisco Liriano, P, Twins: Finally in the rotation after toiling away in middle relief while the Twins trotted out mediocrities like Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse. Don't buy into the Johan Santana Jr. hype, but get him active in all formats.

Justin Verlander, P, Tigers: He's only striking out five guys per nine innings despite being clocked at 100 MPH. But his walk rate is about half that and one of his two starts this week is vs. KC.

Bench 'em

Matt Clement, P, Red Sox: He hasn't been the same since being being hit in the face with a line drive, which is not unprecedented in baseball history. One start this week vs. the Yankees mean any hopes of a turnaround will very likely have to wait.

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners: 2004 was a career year. Now, he is struggling mightily, being called into closed-door meetings, battling a tender hammy.... What more do you need to put him on the pine?

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Cole Hamels, P, Phillies: You can never expect a rookie pitcher to break out. But while he's battling some rookie jitters and only throws in the low 90s, Hamels' minor league stats indicate a decent chance for quick success.

Pedro Feliz, 3B, Giants: He had 10 ribbies in a three-game series in Houston last week and entered the weekend slugging .500. But it won't last long with him striking out more than five times as often as he walks.

Bench 'em

Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds: Since he hit only .254 in AAA last year, it's no shock that he's crashed back to earth (hitting .233 with just a .267 slugging percentage over the past three weeks). He'll soon play his way out of a job.

Moises Alou, OF, Giants: He's recovering more quickly than expected from an ankle sprain, but is still iffy for the week. So soldier on with your designated replacement.

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Dan Pompei is an Idiot

There's always a lot of stupid things said in the Sporting News (which has improved over the past five years to the point where it now takes seven minutes to read anything useful in it as opposed to five).

For example, we get the "Scouts Views," which are always packed with insight. This week, we were told "Cliff Floyd's hitting zone is limited..." That's really unusual, a guy not being able to hit certain pitches, say high and tight and low and away.

This week, Dan Pompei treated us to his breathless reporting about how the Saints are going to feature a two halfback offense and that it can work "because the thinking on offense is expanding." Maybe the Cardinals can figure out a way to play Leinart and Warner a the same time and really break the bounderies of convention.

He says, "Plus Payton can take a look at how the Vikings over the years have found ways to open up seams in the running game without a lead blocker."

Not having a lead blocker when you have an extra tight end or wide receiver is one thing. Not having a lead blocker because you have a guy in the backfield who can't block is another. But I would love to see Reggie Bush clearing the way for Deuce McAllister on a lead draw, slamming into inside backers. That's a great way to protect a $50 million investment.

But Pompei isn't done: "...playing Bush and McAllister together isn't much different from playing Tony Gonzalez and Priest Holmes together."

What? So playing people at the same position isn't much differnet than playing people together at differnt positions? What revolutionary thinking!

The key, he says, will be sending one in motion (thus turning one into a wide receiver). Teams aren't going to give a crap about Deuce being flanked out wide. Having Bush out there will be scary, but there's nothing revolutionary about that and then he has to make his living beating NFL corners instead of linebacker and safeties. So, there are diminishing returns there.

I said it then and will say it again: drafting Reggie Bush was the dumbest thing the Saints could have done given their financial commitment to McAllister. There's no way to rationalize spending $100 million on a couple of halfbacks in a salary capped NFL world. It was and remains insane. Even spending half that on one back is stupid becasue, as McAllister proved, backs are hurt too easily. The Saints, as presently constructed, have no room for error in personnel investements. And they will make errors, like all teams do. So, Bush plus McAllister is hopeless even if both stay healthy and productive.

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Media Madness (Off Topic)

There has to be a way to combine our three current media obsessions:

--The bald dude being voted off American Idol

--The immigration "crisis"

--Alligator attacks in Florida

How about: Each week we get to vote to deport entire Mexican towns not just out of the country but into a waiting alligator pit located in central Florida, right outside of Disney World. Lou Dobbs can host. It can be based either on how a representative immigrant from said town either (a) scrubs toilets or (b) sings shmaltzy ballads/pop dreck. Better yet, let's have them sing while they scrub before the panel of judges: Rush Limbaugh, Edward James Olmos and Paula Abdul (but on the condition that Limbaugh and Abdul are always high). All phone votes monitored and verified by the U.S. Government.

Note: the majority of Americans say that the voting controversy on American Idol is as important as the controversy that ended the 2000 presidential election. What a country!

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: May 15 - 21

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees: Has some promise as a hitter (.385 this year in AAA) and gets full-time at bats with wrist injuries to Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui, the later possibly season ending.

Brandon McCarthy, P, White Sox: We're not as bullish as some with that modest K-rate in relief no less. But he gets two starts this week (at Twins, Cubs), replacing Jose Contreras (pinched nerve), who is sidelined indefinitely.

Bench 'em

:Mark Kotsay (OF, A's): HIs chronic back woes may prevent him from ever expressing the power he's flashed in recent years.

Ian Kinsler (2B, Rangers): With Buck Showalter favorite Mark DeRosa tearing it up, the Rangers are in no rush to activate Kinsler and when they do, it may be in a backup role despite a blistering start before dislocating his thumb.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Dontrelle Willis, P, Marlins: With one homer allowed and twice as many strikeouts as walks in his first 46 innings, his ERA with average luck/defense on balls in play would be 3.23, not 6.22 (where it sits).

Dave Roberts, OF, Padres: He still sits against lefties, but that's okay if he keeps running wild (seven steals in his last seven games heading into the weekend).

Bench 'em

Brian Giles, 2B, Braves: The chipped bone and sprained ligament in his finger seem to be lingering. The safe play in mixed leagues is to reserve him until you know he proves he's healthy by stringing together some hits.

Aaron Rowand, OF, Phillies: It must be next to impossible to hit with a broken nose. Rowand's tough and will try to play through it. He doesn't command the strike zone well enough to keep hitting .300.

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Weekly Fantasy Touts: May 8 - May 14

Forgot to post this when I wrote it on Friday:

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Julio Lugo, SS, Devil Rays: Finally back from a strained rib cage, Lugo offers top speed and runs scored batting lead-off for Tampa Bay. Start him in all formats.

Paul Byrd, P, Indians: When you can find a pitcher on the waiver wire who gets two weekly starts with one against the weakling Royals, get him active. Byrd is a control artist who should rebound from April woes.


Bench 'em

Brad Wilkerson, OF, Rangers: After striking out 41 times in his first 102 at bats, Wilkerson re-injured his shoulder on Thursday crashing into an OF wall.

Justin Huber, 1B, Royals: Only in the bizarro Royals' world does it make sense to call up on of your handful of top prospects (led the Texas League in hitting in '05) and bench him in favor of 38-year-old journeyman Matt Stairs.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in

Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies: Back from his intestinal distress, which rumors of a lengthy stay on the DL created for all of his owners. The Rockies are mashing the ball in the early going.

Jeff Kent, 2B, Dodgers: Yes, he entered the weekend hitting .180. But the due theory does have some merit in baseball. Even at 38, Kent is too good to keep struggling.

Bench 'em

Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins: While his owners looked forward to a return from the DL this week, a setback in rehabbing his hip flexor pushed Hermida's timetable back slightly .

Oliver Perez, P, Pirates: The Pirates announced this week they're at a loss and are going to let Perez do whatever he wants to try to recapture his 2004 form. Make sure the experiment does not continue on your dime.

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Net OPS Leaders

(SCROLL DOWN FOR THE YOUNG/BONDS POSTS)

Through the first month:

Team/ Net OPS
Tigers 0.208
Yankees 0.197
Brewers 0.13
Mets 0.108
White Sox 0.1
Indians 0.067
Rockies 0.065
Cardinals 0.042
Blue Jays 0.039
Astros 0.035
Rangers 0.033
Reds 0.024
Red Sox 0.017
Dodgers 0.011
DBacks 0.01
Braves -0.007
Angels -0.015
Nationals -0.023
Marlins -0.032
A's -0.037
Cubs -0.043
Giants -0.049
Orioles -0.054
Mariners -0.065
Padres -0.074
Phillies -0.078
Devil Rays -0.123
Pirates -0.131
Royals -0.152
Twins -0.209

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My Fair Vince

Trent Dilfer said a really dumb thing on the NFL Network last night. People say dumb things all the time, obviously. But this was noteworthy, I think, because it reflects reflexive NFL thinking. Here's what he said:

"Most people, most traditionalists, don't belive that Vince Young can become a drop-back, in-the-pocket, NFL passer in this league. I tend to disagree. But I disagree on this notion: he has to be coached the right way. I'm really interested to see how Norm Chow, a guy who has incredible success on the college level developing quarterbacks, teaching him the fundamentals. Teach him every aspect of being a dropback quarterback. How that transitions into the NFL, taking this incredible athlete, a guy who has been incredibly successful in college football and see if he can mold him and shape him and discipline him into being a dropback quarterback in the National Football League."

The premise that you need to change Young into being a dropback passer is what's stupid here. If you wanted a dropback passer, you shouldn't have drafted Young. Does Dilfer, et al, believe that Young should be turned into Dan Marino? No one is more of an advocate of dropback, down-the-field passing than me. But there are exceptions to every rule. Young has to be given the latitude to freelance and make plays with his feet or his unique talent is being wasted.

It is scary to think that Chow, who is known for developing the statues like Palmer and Leinart, is going to be in charge of transitioning Young into the NFL. Let's hope he doesn't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

END OF POST

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