Sloppy Analysis

It happens to all of us, but I'm less tolerant of analytical oversights when they are committed by major media outlets.

I'm getting ready to write my previews and I go over to the SI site to see if Dr. Z has filed yet. No dice. But I notice an article on how Super Bowl running backs have been a bust. The writer (Reuben Frank) notes that no running back has had a carry over 27 yards in a Super Bowl in 13 years. And then we're informed that no back has had a carry over 30 yards since Thurman Thomas against the Giants in 1991 (31 yards). It doesn't take very long to go through the memory banks of Super Bowl games and come up with a challenge. There was that great TD run by DeShaun Foster against New England a couple of years ago. I assume that was under 27 yards because there's no way the writers AND the editors would miss something so obvious. Remember, they're not even talking TD runs here; but all runs. It's much harder to overlook a scoring run. Nonetheless, I could swear that was over 30 yards. I look it up and sure enough it was 33. Now why should I bother reading anything else that guy writes?

Setting aside the mistake, I don't understand what Frank is so amazed about by the lack of long runs in Super Bowls. Runs of over 27 yards are relatively rare and the years we're talking about consist of one game. Edgerrin James went almost two years (~30 games) without a run over 20 yards and that was against everyone; these backs are usually going up against top defenses.

I will be curious to see if there's a prop bet for a run over X-number of yards for either back. If there is, it might pay to take the odds on a long run because this streak, even if it were true, is really not that impressive.