Spring Slush
It's been said that spring is when you feel like whistling even with a shoe full of slush. And given their respective winter spending sprees, the Mets and Yanks do seem to have reason to chirp.
For wary Mets fans, however, the team's purported bullpen woes are the cold splash of reality that rudely interrupts these October dreams. Non-biased Yankee observers see the combination of a thin bench and age as the major obstacle on the path to the World Series crown that has proved so elusive since 2000.
New Mets GM Omar Minaya had the right idea in attacking the bullpen with a wide array of low-cost options, resisting the urge to land bigger names at the cost of payroll flexibility and/or valuable commodities like the team's handful of intriguing minor leaguers. Recently, Mike Cameron was rumored to be trade bait for Detroit's former closer, Uggie Urbina, who was sub-par last year away from the pitching haven that is Comerica Park.
So what are the prospects for the Mets' pen leading up to closer Brandon Looper?
Mike DeJean wasn't nearly as bad for Baltimore as he was unlucky with batting average allowed on balls hit in play. His earlier control struggles seemed completely rectified before he broke his leg. DeJean will be an adequate set-up man if he allows less than one homer per nine innings, likely considering he's done that three of the last four years (just two HRs in 61 innings in '04).
The primary lefty looks to be Japanese import Dae-Sung Koo. Though his peripheral numbers in Japan are not impressive (especially those 24 homers allowed in 116-plus innings), it's important to note they were compiled as a starter. When starters move to the bullpen, their strikeout rates tend to spike significantly. For example, Eric Gagne averaged seven strikeouts per nine innings as a starter and over 12 as a reliever. Significant strikeout improvement also has been experienced by pitchers ranging from Tom Gordon to Scott Schoeneweis. Koo averaged almost eight Ks per nine innings as a Japanese starter in 2004. Given that San Diego's Akinori Otsuka's Japanese strikeouts translated reasonably well last year and White Sox closer Shingo Takatsu dramatically improved on all of his peripheral Japanese relief numbers in the AL's toughest pitching park, expect Koo to average more than a K per inning between long balls.
The most likely of the remaining candidates to travel north is righty Scott Strickland, who has a good chance of picking up where he left off nearly two years removed from Tommy John surgery.
Most savvy Mets fans are hoping that Felix Heredia struggles so badly this spring that the team is forced to invest in arms with more upside. But a second lefty will be required if Heredia is released and the only other roster options at the moment are Mike Matthews and Scott Stewart, who were both painfully ineffective in 2004. Before resorting to a trade, the Mets should audition minor leaguer Blake McGinley, who was long in the tooth for AA and AAA last year but continued to excel in the Venezuelan League (20/4 K/BBs in 14 relief innings).
Keeping retreads Roberto Hernandez or (gasp) Todd Van Poppel would come at the expense of potential power arms Heath Bell, Bart Fortunato, Orber Moreno (shoulder permitting) and even Aaron Heilman. Remember that Heilman has averaged seven strikeouts per nine innings in about 100 frames as a big league starter and could boost that to double digits as a reliever if the Mets have the imagination to facilitate such a move.
Yankees fans will all eventually scratch their heads over how a $200 million payroll investment could yield arguably the league's worst bench. Rey Sanchez backs up at three positions and one of those spots is manned by Tony Womack, who should be a backup himself. The fourth outfielder, Ruben Sierra, can't adequately defend and the purported defensive center fielder, Doug Glanville, doesn't flash enough leather to justify late-inning lineup machinations (which is probably exactly the way Joe Torre wanted it). If utility man Damian Rolls makes the cut, he'll combine with Sanchez and backup catcher John Flaherty to give the Yanks three bench players not good enough for the Devil Rays.
Granted, a bench isn't as important in the AL as in the NL. But the Yankees are alarmingly old and it's not reasonable to expect such a geriatric crew to avoid injury or steep performance declines. Look at the Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA projected on base plus slugging percentages for Tino Martinez (.794) and Womack (.656) and at bats for Jason Giambi (307) and Bernie Williams (447).
Expect GM Brian Cashman to attempt the same mid-season overhaul in 2004 that occurred in 2000, when the bench was completely churned and replaced with Glenallen Hill (16 HRs in 132 Yankee ABs), David Justice (who started but allowed DH Shane Spencer to slide to the bench), Luis Sojo (who continued his career year after the trade), Jose Vizcaino (need we remind Mets fans of his World Series importance) and Luis Polonia.
The only player on the current roster who could trigger an in-season shakeup is well-regarded second base prospect Robinson Cano (216 at bats above AA), who PECOTA projects better than Womack. Cano's ascension would allow Womack to slide into a super utility role that would include significant innings in centerfield and late-inning speed similar to what Dave Roberts provided to such great effect for the 2004 Red Sox. However, the Yankees reportedly have already shopped Cano and he's just as likely to be bench bait than quarry.
The Yankees are in a much better position to address their primary need in-season than are the Mets, as they can count on getting someone else's overpaid regulars for a summer song. Options here are likely to be plentiful, given the Yanks relative financial clout. The Mets, meanwhile, will be in a line of suitors targeting a non-contender's middle reliever with a bargain salary. Prospects will be required; and given how the Mets overpaid at the deadline last year, the mere fact that the team has a new GM isn't going to stop every front office in baseball from trying to extract top dollar.
For wary Mets fans, however, the team's purported bullpen woes are the cold splash of reality that rudely interrupts these October dreams. Non-biased Yankee observers see the combination of a thin bench and age as the major obstacle on the path to the World Series crown that has proved so elusive since 2000.
New Mets GM Omar Minaya had the right idea in attacking the bullpen with a wide array of low-cost options, resisting the urge to land bigger names at the cost of payroll flexibility and/or valuable commodities like the team's handful of intriguing minor leaguers. Recently, Mike Cameron was rumored to be trade bait for Detroit's former closer, Uggie Urbina, who was sub-par last year away from the pitching haven that is Comerica Park.
So what are the prospects for the Mets' pen leading up to closer Brandon Looper?
Mike DeJean wasn't nearly as bad for Baltimore as he was unlucky with batting average allowed on balls hit in play. His earlier control struggles seemed completely rectified before he broke his leg. DeJean will be an adequate set-up man if he allows less than one homer per nine innings, likely considering he's done that three of the last four years (just two HRs in 61 innings in '04).
The primary lefty looks to be Japanese import Dae-Sung Koo. Though his peripheral numbers in Japan are not impressive (especially those 24 homers allowed in 116-plus innings), it's important to note they were compiled as a starter. When starters move to the bullpen, their strikeout rates tend to spike significantly. For example, Eric Gagne averaged seven strikeouts per nine innings as a starter and over 12 as a reliever. Significant strikeout improvement also has been experienced by pitchers ranging from Tom Gordon to Scott Schoeneweis. Koo averaged almost eight Ks per nine innings as a Japanese starter in 2004. Given that San Diego's Akinori Otsuka's Japanese strikeouts translated reasonably well last year and White Sox closer Shingo Takatsu dramatically improved on all of his peripheral Japanese relief numbers in the AL's toughest pitching park, expect Koo to average more than a K per inning between long balls.
The most likely of the remaining candidates to travel north is righty Scott Strickland, who has a good chance of picking up where he left off nearly two years removed from Tommy John surgery.
Most savvy Mets fans are hoping that Felix Heredia struggles so badly this spring that the team is forced to invest in arms with more upside. But a second lefty will be required if Heredia is released and the only other roster options at the moment are Mike Matthews and Scott Stewart, who were both painfully ineffective in 2004. Before resorting to a trade, the Mets should audition minor leaguer Blake McGinley, who was long in the tooth for AA and AAA last year but continued to excel in the Venezuelan League (20/4 K/BBs in 14 relief innings).
Keeping retreads Roberto Hernandez or (gasp) Todd Van Poppel would come at the expense of potential power arms Heath Bell, Bart Fortunato, Orber Moreno (shoulder permitting) and even Aaron Heilman. Remember that Heilman has averaged seven strikeouts per nine innings in about 100 frames as a big league starter and could boost that to double digits as a reliever if the Mets have the imagination to facilitate such a move.
Yankees fans will all eventually scratch their heads over how a $200 million payroll investment could yield arguably the league's worst bench. Rey Sanchez backs up at three positions and one of those spots is manned by Tony Womack, who should be a backup himself. The fourth outfielder, Ruben Sierra, can't adequately defend and the purported defensive center fielder, Doug Glanville, doesn't flash enough leather to justify late-inning lineup machinations (which is probably exactly the way Joe Torre wanted it). If utility man Damian Rolls makes the cut, he'll combine with Sanchez and backup catcher John Flaherty to give the Yanks three bench players not good enough for the Devil Rays.
Granted, a bench isn't as important in the AL as in the NL. But the Yankees are alarmingly old and it's not reasonable to expect such a geriatric crew to avoid injury or steep performance declines. Look at the Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA projected on base plus slugging percentages for Tino Martinez (.794) and Womack (.656) and at bats for Jason Giambi (307) and Bernie Williams (447).
Expect GM Brian Cashman to attempt the same mid-season overhaul in 2004 that occurred in 2000, when the bench was completely churned and replaced with Glenallen Hill (16 HRs in 132 Yankee ABs), David Justice (who started but allowed DH Shane Spencer to slide to the bench), Luis Sojo (who continued his career year after the trade), Jose Vizcaino (need we remind Mets fans of his World Series importance) and Luis Polonia.
The only player on the current roster who could trigger an in-season shakeup is well-regarded second base prospect Robinson Cano (216 at bats above AA), who PECOTA projects better than Womack. Cano's ascension would allow Womack to slide into a super utility role that would include significant innings in centerfield and late-inning speed similar to what Dave Roberts provided to such great effect for the 2004 Red Sox. However, the Yankees reportedly have already shopped Cano and he's just as likely to be bench bait than quarry.
The Yankees are in a much better position to address their primary need in-season than are the Mets, as they can count on getting someone else's overpaid regulars for a summer song. Options here are likely to be plentiful, given the Yanks relative financial clout. The Mets, meanwhile, will be in a line of suitors targeting a non-contender's middle reliever with a bargain salary. Prospects will be required; and given how the Mets overpaid at the deadline last year, the mere fact that the team has a new GM isn't going to stop every front office in baseball from trying to extract top dollar.
Entry #110994051428531555 posted by Catherine Salfino at 7:46 AM
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