Second Guessing AL Starters
I look over the Rotowire Fantasy Baseball Guide closer than most others (except for the Rotoman thing that comes out first but doesn't have enough of Steve Moyer's "Picks and Pans"). We all know how thankless a task these player predictions can be. But I like to second guess as much as the next guy. Is it me or do these seem pitcher values seem especially nutty (AL only, 4X4)?
Brad Radke: $30. This type of thing always bugs me. We knew who Radke was last year. He was a firmly established player. Just because he had a career-type season, his projected value shouldn't move this dramatically. I bet he doubled his RW value from last year. I like Radke. But I wouldn't pay more than $20 for him. I can easily see 30+ homers and a 4-plus ERA.
Zack Greinke: $27. What? The Royals are so bad that Greinke will be lucky to win 10 games. Plus he give up a lot of homers and the K's aren't there. He says he can throw upper 90s if he wants to. What's he waiting for, an engraved invitation? I stop the bidding at $15 and hope he'll earn $20. Of course, he can easily earn $10.
Joel Pineiro: $26. I hate guys who get hurt and then try to heal on their own. I used to do this with my '74 Volvo when I was in college and couldn't afford needed repairs. A lot of wishing with each turn of the key. Plus, Pineiro is too hot and cold to deserve this kind of money. If you like him that much, just trade for him when he's in one of his inevitable ruts. I can't see going over $16-$18.
Bobby Madritsch: $19. I think he was a fluke last year. I don't like guys who emerge in their late 20s this much, even if they're lefties. Plus, where was the minor league dominance last year. I would hope to get a guy like him for $10. Otherwise, I'll pass.
Jeremy Bonderman: $14. What? Now this is a guy I can see paying mid-20s for. Of course, I'll take him at $14. I love how everyone loves Bonderman but they can't commit enough projection dollars to him to ensure that readers actually do what's needed to acquire him. To me, there's no comparison between Bonderman and Grienke, who RW has being worth about twice as much in 5x5, too. There's also no comparison between Bonderman and the next guy....
David Bush: $14. Here's a guy I pay $10 for. Nice stuff. Nice makeup. Nice No. 3 starter one day. But this bid is trying to get in on the next Roy Halladay and that ain't happenin' here.
Freddy Garcia: $14. Talk about no respect. I know the ballpark is tough. But you wouldn't know it by looking at Garcia's splits last year. Garcia out-earns Greinke this year easily and I'll take him over Radke, too. I'd absolutely love him for $20.
Kelvim Escobar: $10. We have a winner in our most underrated pitcher award. God I hope and pray this is a consensus view so I can steal him in my home league. Escobar's DIPS were easily top 10 AL last year. Heck, his actuals were pretty damn good, too. But he's tiered with Paul Byrd? Please. (I like Lackey a lot, too, but he's at least listed for $13). END.
Brad Radke: $30. This type of thing always bugs me. We knew who Radke was last year. He was a firmly established player. Just because he had a career-type season, his projected value shouldn't move this dramatically. I bet he doubled his RW value from last year. I like Radke. But I wouldn't pay more than $20 for him. I can easily see 30+ homers and a 4-plus ERA.
Zack Greinke: $27. What? The Royals are so bad that Greinke will be lucky to win 10 games. Plus he give up a lot of homers and the K's aren't there. He says he can throw upper 90s if he wants to. What's he waiting for, an engraved invitation? I stop the bidding at $15 and hope he'll earn $20. Of course, he can easily earn $10.
Joel Pineiro: $26. I hate guys who get hurt and then try to heal on their own. I used to do this with my '74 Volvo when I was in college and couldn't afford needed repairs. A lot of wishing with each turn of the key. Plus, Pineiro is too hot and cold to deserve this kind of money. If you like him that much, just trade for him when he's in one of his inevitable ruts. I can't see going over $16-$18.
Bobby Madritsch: $19. I think he was a fluke last year. I don't like guys who emerge in their late 20s this much, even if they're lefties. Plus, where was the minor league dominance last year. I would hope to get a guy like him for $10. Otherwise, I'll pass.
Jeremy Bonderman: $14. What? Now this is a guy I can see paying mid-20s for. Of course, I'll take him at $14. I love how everyone loves Bonderman but they can't commit enough projection dollars to him to ensure that readers actually do what's needed to acquire him. To me, there's no comparison between Bonderman and Grienke, who RW has being worth about twice as much in 5x5, too. There's also no comparison between Bonderman and the next guy....
David Bush: $14. Here's a guy I pay $10 for. Nice stuff. Nice makeup. Nice No. 3 starter one day. But this bid is trying to get in on the next Roy Halladay and that ain't happenin' here.
Freddy Garcia: $14. Talk about no respect. I know the ballpark is tough. But you wouldn't know it by looking at Garcia's splits last year. Garcia out-earns Greinke this year easily and I'll take him over Radke, too. I'd absolutely love him for $20.
Kelvim Escobar: $10. We have a winner in our most underrated pitcher award. God I hope and pray this is a consensus view so I can steal him in my home league. Escobar's DIPS were easily top 10 AL last year. Heck, his actuals were pretty damn good, too. But he's tiered with Paul Byrd? Please. (I like Lackey a lot, too, but he's at least listed for $13). END.
Entry #111150231804223888 posted by Catherine Salfino at 9:37 AM
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