Defense Rests for Yanks

Here's an article I wrote for the New York Sun. It hasn't been published yet. Will it be? Who knows.

by Michael Salfino

In an effort to secure the World Series crown that has proved so elusive since 2000, the Yankees committed a veritable mountain of money this winter to starting pitching.

Of course, the team did the same thing in 2004 but still finished in the middle of the pack in ERA -- a half-run per game worse than the Red Sox and behind the Rangers (whose starters were snickered at all season).

If allowing less runs was such an organizational priority, many objective observers wonder why a bigger effort wasn't made to fortify the defense.

There is a wide body of statistical analysis that says that the Yankees were a below-average defensive team last year and are likely to be worse in 2005. Of course, this same type of analysis clearly states that Derek Jeter is a below-average defensive shortstop and he was just awarded the Gold Glove. So, what makes statistical measures better than the naked eye?

"The impact of plays made/not made can be calculated as a function of balls hit to a given fielder, and his rate at converting them into outs," says Chris Dial of Baseball Think Factory (www.baseballthinkfactory.org).

This type of analysis is preferred by Dial because the older statistical method of predicting runs saved based on a defender's assists and putouts did not account for oddities of chance. For example, Dial notes, the Yankees have generated fewer balls hit to shortstop over Jeter's career than the data would predict. Not accounting for distribution oddities on balls in play can lead to unfairly underrating and overrating defenders.

Dial, who says that Jose Valentin or Bobby Crosby would have been more worthy of the AL Gold Glove for shortstop last year, acknowledges that Jeter performed better defensively in '04 than ever before. Yet Dial still grades Jeter a "D" on a A-through-F grading scale and estimates he'll cost the Yanks about 8-to-10 runs compared to an average defensive shortstop. But Dial admits Jeter's defense is generally underrated by the statistical community.

"I think 'statheads' don't mind seeing a player considered a demigod by the fans and the media come up short, and simply overstate his shortcomings."

An American League scout who asked not to be identified says that Jeter grades out above average defensively despite lacking consistency "because he will flash outstanding range and above average arm when the game is on the line. Don't underestimate Jeter's instincts. Think of that play he made backing up a throw on the first-base line in the playoffs against the A's."

The scout admits those plays are tough to quantify. "Players win Gold Gloves for spectacular plays as opposed to consistency. How many 'web gems' do you get on ESPN?"

Psychologist Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize for Economics for his work in examining heuristics and biases that affect our judgment. His "availability bias" seems to directly address ESPN's impact on assessing defense. The more easily we can retrieve a memory, Kahneman proved, the more frequently we believe an event occurred.

"Availability bias hits the nail on the head," Dial says. "(Highlights) shape the perception of players."

Even with a poor assessment of Jeter, Dial grades the Yanks infield defense as a B-minus. Another independent researcher, Tim Grassey, who has set out to create a simple index that will allow fans to accurately assess each player's defensive ability (a project with so many variables that Grassey now wonders if he'll ever finish), thinks the Yanks will be below average everywhere on the infield except third base. Dial even predicts that Alex Rodriguez will be worthy of the Gold Glove at third this year.

Second baseman Tony Womack is a defensive downgrade from Miguel Cairo. The 35-year-old Womack, despite being a converted shortstop, has only average range at the keystone, according to Dial's analysis.

Tino Martinez charts as slightly above average unless you expect those skills to decline at age 37. Still, he's an upgrade over Jason Giambi, who, Dial says, "is not Mike Piazza-bad, but definitely below average."

There is also consensus that the Yanks biggest defensive problems are in the outfield, especially in center, which will be patrolled by 36-year-old Bernie Williams.

Dial gives Bernie Williams a D-minus/F defensively. "He was once a good fielder. But his range and arm are a tremendous liability at this point in his career."

Our scout agrees. "He just doesn't have the legs anymore and what range he has is deteriorating."

Last year, Williams wasn't as much of an issue because Kenny Lofton ably patrolled center for much of the year.

There's a split with LF Hideki Matsui. "He'll cost the Yanks about 8-to-10 runs defensively over the season," says Dial, who grades him as a "D." Our AL scout disagrees, saying that Matsui is "very underrated defensively. He doesn’t have a strong arm but is accurate. If he was in left for my team, I'd feel very comfortable. And I'm not even counting the fact that he's a great hitter."

The scout also likes RF Gary Sheffield more than Dial and Grassey. "He has a tremendously strong arm and average range in right. So I'd grade him above average."

Whether by chance or design, the Yanks have assembled a starting staff that should yield fewer flyballs than average (only Mussina can be called a flyball pitcher, and a slight one at that). Randy Johnson reduces the importance of defense when he pitches due to his prodigious strikeout rates and large percentage of innings he'll likely consume (as much as 15 percent of the team's total, according to Grassey).

Dial notes that the outfield's shortcomings should still be more heavily weighted. "Outfield misplays allow more extra-base hits."

Grassey predicts the Yanks will allow opponents to hit .305 on balls put in play while Dial predicts .306. The league average last year was .302. The difference, according to Dial, will translate to about 20 runs over the course of the season. "Every 10 runs represents a win or loss, so the Yanks defense alone will cost them two wins this season."

Ball distribution is a key to these projections. "The more balls hit to center relative to average, the more the Yanks will be hurt."

Two wins seems like a minor problem. Chinese proverb says it's better to have a diamond with a flaw than a pebble without one. But weaknesses in sports matter most when the competitive differences are slightest. So among the handful of games defense costs the Yanks in '05 could be one that ultimately proves decisive in mid or late October.