Both Sides Against Mets Middle

Kaz Matsui spent the majority of his rookie year lost in translation and former phenom Jose Reyes frustrated the front office by limping through the fifth and sixth leg injuries of his nascent career.

Much of the Mets offensive success this year will hinge on these difficult-to-project players, who are set to occupy the top two spots in the batting order after swapping middle-infield positions during the off-season.

The statistical community seems to have the same collective memory regarding naming shortstop Reyes as a worthy successor to the position's trinity that Van Halen has for naming Gary Cherone lead singer. The venerated Baseball Prospectus went so far as to suggest that shortstop Reyes spend the majority of 2005 honing his skills in Triple A Norfolk after struggling to reach base out of the leadoff spot when healthy last season. Second baseman Matsui's detractors point to his disappointing power and poor 40/97 BB/K ratio, and similarly want to erase prior projections that fashioned Kaz as the Japanese Barry Larkin.

But could Reyes' really be so easily derailed on the road to stardom? And should Matsui's Japanese triumphs be ignored even in light of the success enjoyed by fellow imports Hideki Matsui (no relation) and Ichiro Suzuki?

It's easy to forget that Reyes is sixth months younger than David Wright. While there is some research that indicates that players with a full year of experience in Triple A have a significantly greater chance of succeeding in their rookie season, that doesn't mean that players with major league experience will improve with more time in the minors. Adjusting to better competition is a skill in itself, arguably the most difficult one for major leaguers to master. Performing well against lesser competition, while perhaps psychologically beneficial, seems only to skirt this bigger issue.

And it's not like the Mets have superior middle-infield options in the organization. After all, Reyes was hitting much better just prior to sustaining his stress fracture last season. In 494 career at bats, he sports a .714 on base plus slugging percentage (OPS) while fielding shortstop well above average (according to most accepted defensive metrics). Even more promising was his Dominican League campaign this winter, during which he hit over .300 with 11 steals in 29 regular season games and then .422 with three homers and nine more steals in 15 playoff contests. Most important, he stayed healthy despite failing to complete the off-season training program suggested by renowned leg specialist Mackie Shilstone.

Reyes needs to adjust his swing so that he can revert to the ground ball rate that better complimented his skills 2003 (47 percent of balls put in play vs. 43 percent in 2004 despite a higher rate of bunts). More ground balls will also help Reyes improve his hit percentage once contact is made from 29 percent in 2004 to the 33 percent level he achieved in 2003 (as would, perhaps, some better luck). Reyes does need to at least reverse his declining walk rate (six percent in '03 compared to just two percent in '04). These relatively minor adjustments can be quickly realized and will likely boost his on-base percentage 10-to-15 percent.

Once he's on base, Reyes has the skills to emerge as one of the major's most successful thieves. Reyes was 11-for-11 in stolen bases last July before injuring his leg and picked off where he left off in the Dominican League and now in spring training.

Matsui had to acclimate himself to a new league and new culture last season. This year, he must tackle a new position, which may minimize expected benefits from his improved comfort level during his second season in New York.

Most statheads consider professional baseball in Japan to be the equivalent of a very good AAA league (with arguably better pitching). That means that Matsui's Japanese performance should ultimately translate to an .800 OPS in the majors. If so, when? Well, last year, Matsui posted an .880 OPS in July before succumbing to his bad back.

The key to Matsui improving his power production will be decreasing his tendency to hit ground balls. In fact, swapping their respective ground ball ratios would go a long way toward Matsui and Reyes becoming the players most thought they'd be in 2004.

We don't have groundball statistics from Japan. But given the 69 homers he hit there in 2002 and 2003, it's reasonable to assume that Matsui was not the groundball hitter he was during his major league debut. Note that Hideki Matsui also unexpectedly became a ground ball hitter as a rookie and his power understandably ebbed. Last year, he doubled his fly ball rate, nearly did the same with his home run total (16 to 31) and changed the experts' perception of him from overrated to deserving all-star.

Also boding well for Kaz Matsui is the reduction in his strikeout rate from once every four at bats in the first half of '04 to once every six at bats in the second half (which may not be a representative sample size given the time he missed with injury). If that holds, it would mean about 40 more balls put in play during the season and, given Matsui's percentages last year, about 13 more hits (which turns the .272 Matsui hit last year to .296, given 500 at bats).

So what should we expect in 2005 from the top of the Mets lineup? Let's give Reyes a batting-average heavy .320 on-base percentage, good enough to warrant the leadoff spot if his hamstrings can sustain 50 stolen base attempts with the 85-to-90 percent success rate he's more than capable of posting. Give Kaz Matsui a high .700, low .800 OPS with enough fly balls to surpass those low-double digit HR projections. Like Reyes, Matsui proved last year to be an efficient base stealer, which increases the overall offensive value of the top of the Mets order beyond what their OPS suggests.