Stat Power Review

Let's give a real critical look at the Stat Power Index now that the season is over.

I like the top five. Pittsburgh deserves the top ranking as the AFC No. 1 seed. San Diego over New England? You're right. San Diego hasn't beaten a winning team. (Correction, they beat Denver in San Diego, which I forgot because they basically go their ass kicked.) But they've been sound. You're splitting hairs between the top four teams anyway, as that power differential doesn't translate to much more than a single point in a predicted score. So the Index sees that top four as dead even, more or less.

I like Denver at No. 5. I think they're dangerous. I'm glad they've slipped ahead of the Jets, who have really slid in YPA Net and PPA Net the past month or so.

Scott Pianowski of Breakfast Table fame thinks that I should give more weight to recent Index stats. It's a point that needs to be raised. But look what happened to the hot teams (Buffalo and Carolina) this week. Months go by in the football season, but not many games (16 is a pretty small sample size to begin with). You're talking about the same players and the same coaches. Does a recent hot streak (or the opposite) mean a team isn't likely to revert to September or October form? Is it a sustainable trend or a fluke? I don't know.

I wish Owens was healthy so we can see if the ability to run the ball (and stop it) and penalties are really worthy of cancelling out strengths such as YPA Net and PPA Net. I think the answer is no and I think the Index underestimated the Eagles with Owens all year. But he takes away their offensing passing prominence now, so we'll never know.

I think you need an Index number of under 40 to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. You need to be under 80 to be a playoff team. If you're over 115, you suck.

I think most of you will agree the Packers and Vikings are well slotted. Should Atlanta be higher? What does that team do well? I can't ever put my finger on that. I'd take KC over Atlanta right now and I think the Chiefs are as mediocre as their ranking.

That brings us to St. Louis. I know that coaches and GMs absolutely hate the way the Rams play and would smile at their ranking (25th). That doesn't make it right, of course. How can a team that's fifth in YPA net be 25th overall when I've always said that YPA net is the most important stat? If the Rams make a run, that's evidence that not all of these stat categories are equal. I do note that the Rams are 21st in PPA net, which is very strange considering those YPA numbers. Interceptions, sacks, penalties.... St. Louis does everything it can to lose every week, that's for sure.

I think the Redskins are a sleeper team next year. Improve the efficiency of the passing game, which is doable, and you've got a 10-to-12 win squad. I worry that the defense is a little toothless with the sacks and the interceptions (kind of like Dallas' was last year).

Tomorrow, I want to have my say on the Jets in the context of what's being said here on sports radio. I'm kicking around the idea of putting on the site real media criticism (attacking the substance of the analysis as opposed to the personalities). Tomorrow will be a test run.