Media Counter Punch 1/11/05

What better place to start than at ESPN, where Scott Pianowski informs me he has Tivo backing on Tom Jackson's observation that "the Minnesota Vikings ran the ball at will against the Packers." Does Tom Jackson mean to say that the key to the Vikings win was the running game? How quiant. How old school. How horribly inaccurate. Forget YPA even. That level of thinking isn't even required. Just look at the Vikings scoring drives. Not only where all four TDs via the air, they consumed 1:40, 1:55, 0:41, 3:19 in time of possession, respectively, and a mere 15 snaps combined. As usual in the NFL, the teams that threw the ball more efficiently in terms of YPA won each game last weekend. Next thing you know, we'll read about how Edgerrin James is the key to the Colts offense. Oh, sorry, the AP already reported that last week.

Michael Kay wrote on the YES network website that "(Randy Johnson) has pitched extremely well in the postseason" and "Think hard and come up with another pitcher you would want on the mound if you had to win a game to save your life in October."

This is a refrain that's been repeated recently by Yankees YES-men and their fans to contrast Johnson to the Mets' Pedro Martinez. But does the objective record support this? Let's look at their postseason careers:

Johnson: 7-8, 3.08 ERA, 108 IP, 86 H, 29 BB, 124 Ks
Martinez: 6-2, 3.40 ERA, 79 IP, 63 H, 26 BB, 80 Ks

Martinez, it's fair to say, has faced superior offensive teams, especially when you factor in the DH. (Most of Johnson's innings have been in the NL.)

At the Johnson press conference, we were treated to this gem (that went unchallenged by YES-man Kay and YES-woman Suzyn Waldman) from Yankee executive Randy Levine: "A lot of teams should worry about their own situation because I don't think they do it (spend money) as well as we do."

There's a difference between spending and spending well. The Yanks spent $48 million on Johnson when you add in his two-year extension plus $9 million to the DBacks so they would take Vazquez' contract plus a 40 percent premium (which will be due next December) in luxury taxes. When you figure in the luxury taxes on just Johnson's three-year deal, that brings the cost to the Yanks for three years of Johnson to $76.2 million. That's a steal compared to $4 million on Tony Womack or $60 million for seven years of Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright. Giambi? Karsay? You get the point. If the Yanks got the value per dollar that half the teams in baseball get, they would really be as unbeatable as their fans always think.

Kay said in his internet piece: "You had a mission statement ... improve the pitching. And a lot of people in baseball would say you did a very good job."

Let's break it down:

The Yanks traded Jon Leiber, Orlando Hernandez, Javier Vazquez (2004 cost to the Yankees: approximately $24 million) for Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano (2004 cost to the Yanks: $32.75 million plus the Vazquez buyout).

Were those extra millions worth it?

Old Yanks (2004): 458 IP, 484 H, 114 BBs, 386 Ks.

New Yanks (2004): 650 IP, 557 H, 163 BB, 588 Ks.

Of course, the picture becomes much more murky if you choose to work with career stats. That difference buys you Beltran if you resist the urge to sign Tino Martinez, at best a luxury and at worst ready to crater.

Mike Francesa and Chris Russo agree that you can make a case for Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome being worth more than Carlos Beltran. They agree that there's no comparison between Beltran and Vlad Guerrero. Of course, when Beltran was rumored to be headed to the Yanks, he was a crown jewel that George Steinbrenner would never be able to resist.

There's no need to repeat our criticism of the duo's Hall of Fame commentary, when they all but ignored the relative value of offense at positions that are more important and demanding defensively. In other words, if you have an above-average defensive centerfielder who hits like Jim Thome or Manny Ramirez, you not only have a top player in the present year, but a top player of all-time. What about Jeter, who also plays a defensive position of arguably greater value? We won't get into arguments regarding Jeter's defensive prowess relative to Beltran because they're not necessary here:

Beltran OPS 2002-2004: .846, .911, .915

Jeter OPS 2002-2004: .794, .844, .823

Earlier on WFAN, Sid Rosenberg and Joe Benigno agreed that Carlos Beltran would have a hard time putting up numbers comparible to the past two years given Shea Stadium being a pitcher's park.

But have Beltran's numbers been inflated recently by his home park?

Beltran at home (2004): 284 AB, 15 HR, .458 slugging, .774 OPS
Beltran away (2004): 315 AB, 23 HR, .629 slugging, 1.041 OPS

What about 2003?

Home: 249 AB, 10 HR, .498 slugging, .915 OPS
Away: 272 AB, 16 HR, .544 slugging, .906 OPS