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Monday, December 13, 2004

Why Vick Makes Me Sick

I said he was overvalued on draft day. Then I grabbed him in my home league as a defensive move (never make defensive moves), because I was worried that he'd absolutely go off when healthy for someone else. When I realized he was totally unreliable, I used him as a backup and spot play and went mostly with Brian Griese during the second half. But I used Vick against New Orleans, for example, to great effect. On Sunday, I had to go Vick at home vs. the Raiders, who have given up big yards to everyone, right? Griese had a tough Chargers defense on the road. My playoff opponent had a good team (for a 14-team league) and I needed some explosiveness instead of the surer points with Griese, whose upside seemed to be 260 yards and two TDs. Well, you know how that played out. Now all I have left is the one expert league I joined. I've advanced to the final four there and will keep you posted on my fate.

Now, let's go around the NFL:

The Jets have been done in twice this year by a halfback option play. Once when it flopped for them and once when it worked for their opponent. The defense is pretty solid for New York, but the offense just isn't explosive. There is no intermediate passing game, a problem that McCareins was brought in to solve. Pennington's arm strength is a lingering concern. But I don't want to overreact. The team is pretty solid. It's a worthy playoff squad. But they have little chance of winning more than one game (and they have a chance for one only if they play the San Diego).

The Colts defense bounced back from the terrible first quarter against Tennessee. You have to give them credit. But the offense looked ordinary. I didn't notice anything too crazy that Houston was doing. They blitzed from some odd angles, sent the corners a couple of times. Manning seemed to be on the run a lot more than usual. And the Colts never really made Houston pay for those chances they were taking. We'll see whether Baltimore goes to school on that this week.

The Chargers have been outplayed now for two weeks in a row at home and have won both games. The glass is half full with them now, so people will try to turn this into a positive (they're showing they know how to win), but getting outplayed is always a negative.

The Browns had 17 total yards on Sunday? Did I hear that right?

The Cowboys have no pass defense and Julius Jones can't fix that. I can't believe this is a Bill Parcells coached team. This is worse than a step back after last year's unexpected playoff charge. The Cowboys defense, which was the strength of last year's team, has totally collapsed. Heads must roll when that happens: coordinators, players.... Sharpen those scythes.

The Panthers have been the Rotoaction sentimental pick for the last wildcard spot for weeks. But now they are the chalk pick. I saw yesterday that they were 19 for 19 in converting goal-to-go situations into TDs before failing against the Rams. That's an amazing stat. Delhomme is a player and Smith is coming back next year. Nick Goings? Well, he was thumped pretty good until the fourth quarter when the Rams gave up. I still don't think he's a starting-caliber player. But he symbolizes this team's skill in making the most out of itself.

The computer and Index were right on with Washington. I didn't believe it. But that's why you need to set emotion aside. We're too easily swept away by what we've last seen. Another good example of this was Seattle, a quality team with a knack for losing that was playing its mirror image. But no one could get Dallas and Monday night out of their head. How could the Colts be contained we all thought? Manning is just very good outdoors, not superhuman -- that's how. The Raiders and Falcons were also good examples of putting too much stock into recent performance. It's not reasonable to discount the Raiders early season woes because that's part of who this current team is. (And please don't lay that effort off on losing Ronald Curry.) Kerry Collins history is part of who he is, too.

Finally, the Patriots, who the Stats Power Index will assuredly dis again. The Pats give up nearly 500 yards and 26 first downs, lose the move/time of possession battle, but win more easily than the final score indicates. Why? 2-0 advantage in interceptions. They commit seven less penalties than their opponent. They win the YPA battle. Everywhere else on the stat sheet, they lose. But as I said in last week's Breakfast Table, winning is a skill that the Patriots have mastered.
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