Week 10 Picks
We analyze and pick all of our games in our weekly forecast.
Link But three games have lines that the Power Index says are way out of whack. Let's focus on these three games: Cincinnati at Washington, Seattle at St. Louis and the Giants at Arizona.
Vegas says Cincinnati and the Redskins are evenly matched but the game is in Washington so the 'Skins lay the three. The Power Index says that Washington is a borderline playoff team (tied for 10th in the rankings) and the Bengals better than just six teams. When a team with an 80 score plays at home against a team with a 133 score, our methodology says they should be a nine-point favorite. Washington is better than average in five of the six power index categories (26th in net YPA) and very good in two of them (TD pass net and penalties per game). So, we're taking Washington minus the three for three units (the most we allot ourselves).
Seattle should not be a pick 'em against the Rams, no matter what the home/road splits suggest for each team. The Rams are not good in any category. They almost give away all of what they earn in YPA. Their TD passes are a wash. And they are downright bad in INT net, sacks net, penalties, and move net (completions plus runs minus completions plus runs allowed). The Seahawks are good across the board and the least penalized team in the league. They will win the sacks battle and the will very likely control the ball for the majority of the game. We say they're 8.5 points better than the Rams right now and 5.5 even in St. Louis. You want to give St. Louis an extra point or two for the dome? Fine. We're still going to go two units on the Seahawks.
The Giants and the Cards are virtually even in our index. The Giants are one measley point ahead at 112-113 (lower is better in the index). But that's WITH Strahan. The Giants losing Strahan is to their defense what the loss of Randy Moss has been to the Vikings offense. We don't have proof of that, yet. But this game should be Arizona minus three (at Arizona) even with big Mike; he's out so we feel even better about this pick. If Strahan was healthy, we'd go one unit. But, considering the circumstances, we're going two.
Link
Vegas says Cincinnati and the Redskins are evenly matched but the game is in Washington so the 'Skins lay the three. The Power Index says that Washington is a borderline playoff team (tied for 10th in the rankings) and the Bengals better than just six teams. When a team with an 80 score plays at home against a team with a 133 score, our methodology says they should be a nine-point favorite. Washington is better than average in five of the six power index categories (26th in net YPA) and very good in two of them (TD pass net and penalties per game). So, we're taking Washington minus the three for three units (the most we allot ourselves).
Seattle should not be a pick 'em against the Rams, no matter what the home/road splits suggest for each team. The Rams are not good in any category. They almost give away all of what they earn in YPA. Their TD passes are a wash. And they are downright bad in INT net, sacks net, penalties, and move net (completions plus runs minus completions plus runs allowed). The Seahawks are good across the board and the least penalized team in the league. They will win the sacks battle and the will very likely control the ball for the majority of the game. We say they're 8.5 points better than the Rams right now and 5.5 even in St. Louis. You want to give St. Louis an extra point or two for the dome? Fine. We're still going to go two units on the Seahawks.
The Giants and the Cards are virtually even in our index. The Giants are one measley point ahead at 112-113 (lower is better in the index). But that's WITH Strahan. The Giants losing Strahan is to their defense what the loss of Randy Moss has been to the Vikings offense. We don't have proof of that, yet. But this game should be Arizona minus three (at Arizona) even with big Mike; he's out so we feel even better about this pick. If Strahan was healthy, we'd go one unit. But, considering the circumstances, we're going two.
Entry #110036693519903392 posted by Catherine Salfino at 11:58 AM
<< Home