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Tuesday, November 09, 2004

RotoAction Power Index -- Week 9

Here's the RotoAction Power Index through Week 9. I don't like how the Jets moved up to No. 1 after the bad loss in Buffalo. But, upon closer examination, it's a fluke. They had a better YPA than Buffalo in that game and threw more TD passes. But they got dinged in penalties, sack differential and hurt badly in move net. However, they didn't move enough to change how they rank in these categories. Yet. They are also tied in a bunch of categories, so they can lose points in a hurry.

The other problem, of course, is Washington being viewed as New England's equal. That's obviously not the case. Washington is not a bad team if you factor out their anemic passing game. The defense is very solid overall. Plus, they don't commit many penalties. The Patriots would rank much higher if we didn't include penalties per game. I put that stat in there without talking to coaches or seeing good research on its correlation to winning. I'll research that more fully in coming weeks, hopefully with input from some NFL coaches. Come to think of it, getting rid of penalties would cure the Jet/Steeler problem, too.

I like the rest of the rankings. Later in the week, we'll convert these into point spreads to see which games Vegas is wrong on by more than three points. Last week, we felt three teams were getting badly underestimated in the point spread: Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. But we also felt Dallas was getting short-changed by two points (they should have been favored) and the Boys were blown out in Cincy. So, this is obviously an inexact science. Remember, this is only for entertainment purposes. Please, no wagering.

Also, for more information on the stats used to compile the power ranking, see the post below.

1 Jets (32)
2 Pittsburgh (33)
3 Indianapolis (39)
4 San Diego (41)
5 Seattle (48)
6 Denver (53)
7 Philadelphia (64)
8 Green Bay (69)
9 Minnesota (79)
10 New England (80)
10 Washington (80)
12 Baltimore (82)
13 Tampa Bay (84)
14 Houston (89)
15 Kansas City (95)
16 Buffalo (101)
17 Atlanta (102)
18 Detroit (106)
19 Giants (112)
20 Arizona (113)
21 Dallas (114)
22 Tennessee (117)
23 Cleveland (118)
24 Carolina (123)
25 St. Louis (126)
26 Cincinnati (133)
27 Miami (134)
28 Jacksonville (135)
29 New Orleans (139)
30 Chicago (143)
31 San Francisco (144)
32 Oakland (175)
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