Pinball Passing
First of all, my apologies to Psycho, which I left off the list of Top Horror Films in the prior posting on this blog. (I don't want to end up like Janet Leigh in the shower tomorrow morning.) I actually took a course on Hitchcock in college and there's just no excuse for that, as Psycho was revolutionary and is one of the very few key markers on the horror film timeline. And YPA is back in business as a predicting tool, with 8-5 heading into Monday Night (YPA said to take Miami and the points tonight).
What the hell is going on with the passing game? After Sunday, it sure feels like things have changed. Is that true? Well, there have been 35 300+ yard passing games this year compared to 29 through Week 8 last year. That's a 20 percent increase. Let's dig deeper. This year, six teams (Vikings, Colts, Rams, Eagles, Packers, Texans) are averaging over 270 yards passing per game. Last year, zero teams did that. In '02, three teams were over 270 YPG. We're on pace this year for 724 TD passes vs. 654 last year, an increase of about 11%. This year, 16 teams are averaging over 7.0 yards per attempt (YPA). Last year,nine averaged over 7.0 and in '02 the number was 11. But the real change is with over 7.5 YPA. That had been the Gold Standard of passing proficiency. Only four teams cracked 7.5 last year and just two in 2002. But this year, 12 teams are at 7.5 YPA or better. (NOTE THIS PARAGRAPH HAS BEEN UPDATED IN LIGHT OF MONDAY NIGHT'S GAME.)
Bottom line, 7.0 YPA had been a great predictor for a top 10 finish in TD passes. Not anymore. And 7.5+ YPA was a great predictor for a top five finish in YPA. Not anymore. Now, is this just a sample-size fluke? Maybe. But we have rule changes (well, techinically a more strict enforcement of existing rules). Perhaps this is the dawn of an offensive/passing revolution similar to what baseball went through with homers and scoring in baseball during the 1990s. In other words, maybe we've changed the game until someone decides to change it back.
Here's a preview of my By The Numbers column (which appears in a newspaper near you; check your local listings).
I've notice that I always have way more guys that I want to recommend selling than those I'm considering a buy on. That probably says something about my personality. Anyway, and away we go....
Michael Vick finally was able to deal with a pass rush last week. Going into the week, he'd been sacked a league-high 24 times despite the Falcons throwing the league's fewest passes. Yesterday, he was dropped one time. If the Falcons can prove that this wasn't a one-game fluke and that they've plugged the damn and that Vick is capable of avoiding these drive-killing negative plays, then he's worth a buy. For now, let's hold him.
What to do with Drew Brees? Remember, the Raiders are the worst pass defense in the NFL by far and they were banged up on top of it. The Chargers are averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, which is usually top five but only gets them to No. 10 this year, which is still solid. But Brees isn't throwing 30 TD passes this year. He's not even likely to throw 25. The last time a Marty Schottenheimer team had more than 20 TD passes? 1990. And Schottenheimer coached teams have only finished in the top 10 in TD passes two times in 20 years.
Fine, I'll give you buy. Jabar Gaffney. Are you happy? The scouts love him and the Texans are going to three WRs as part of their base offense. He would have scored a rushing TD last week if he didn't drop the ball in the midst of an early celebration. And, no, I'm not just saying this because he's Derrick Gaffney's kid. The Texans still lead the NFL in YPA. (Yeah, I know, the Colts go to No. 1 when you factor in sacks, as Peyton's only been dropped four times, which is simply absurd.)
I'll come close to a buy with Eddie George. (We're taking baby steps with Eddie because this recommendation is all about opportunity rather than ability.) Parcells wants to run it now, promised more action for George and then backed that up by giving him 31 carries. Yeah, he has no big play ability. But he's durable and is the unquestioned goal-line back. I think he's a third RB now in most leagues and even a boarderline starter.
Back to selling. Brandon Stokley should be traded this week. I watched the Colts-Chiefs and the Colts had few answers for the Chiefs blitzing until they went to the two-TEs, which was supposed to be their base offense heading into the season. Well, why would teams take away three WRs if Manning was so dangerous throwing out of the two-TE formation? Because the Colts lost the game and defenses have to try to take something away from Manning, don't they? I think there's a good chance that Stokley is on the field a lot less in coming weeks. Why take that chance if you don't have to?
Okay, this is getting long and I have to pick up the pace so I have time to eat lunch, write my column and head off to Giants Stadium for that lovely press box food followed by the Monday Nighter.
Plaxico? I swear I was going to say to buy him before I found out he did all his damage against Ty Law's replacement. Only three catches, too? Sure Roethlisberger seems like the real deal and he gets the ball downfield more effectively than Tommy Maddox. But do the Steelers really want to throw it? I still don't think so.
I'm heavily invested in Chris Brown. But I say sell him. That turf toe isn't going to get better and he was limping around like Grandpa Moses after every carry on Sunday. Sure, he rumbled for 147 yards and was gritty. But the explosion wasn't there. How could it be?
Jamal Lewis' success depends largely on Jonathan Ogden's health. And he's iffy for the next few weeks with a hamstring after missing time earlier in the year, too. Fantasy players ignore these ancillary injuries, but in cases like this they're very, very impactful. I can't say to sell him because of his upcoming schedule: Browns, Jets, Cowboys, Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Giants. Only the Browns have been good against the run, but he rumbled for 500 yards against them last year. Still, don't expect the bounty that this upcoming schedule suggests unless Ogden returns.
Willis McGahee. Well, I'll put a strong sell on him. Yeah, I know, he's not a co-starter. He's a starter. That's no surprise, considering how heavily invested Buffalo is in him. But he averaged about three yards per carry at home against the Cardinals and the Bills managed just 11 first downs, so those 38 points were a major fluke. Hmmm. The Bills schedule isn't that bad: Jets, Rams, Bengals.... Sorry. Visions of Bledsoe dancing in my head now. Sell! Is that strong enough for you?
What the hell is going on with the passing game? After Sunday, it sure feels like things have changed. Is that true? Well, there have been 35 300+ yard passing games this year compared to 29 through Week 8 last year. That's a 20 percent increase. Let's dig deeper. This year, six teams (Vikings, Colts, Rams, Eagles, Packers, Texans) are averaging over 270 yards passing per game. Last year, zero teams did that. In '02, three teams were over 270 YPG. We're on pace this year for 724 TD passes vs. 654 last year, an increase of about 11%. This year, 16 teams are averaging over 7.0 yards per attempt (YPA). Last year,nine averaged over 7.0 and in '02 the number was 11. But the real change is with over 7.5 YPA. That had been the Gold Standard of passing proficiency. Only four teams cracked 7.5 last year and just two in 2002. But this year, 12 teams are at 7.5 YPA or better. (NOTE THIS PARAGRAPH HAS BEEN UPDATED IN LIGHT OF MONDAY NIGHT'S GAME.)
Bottom line, 7.0 YPA had been a great predictor for a top 10 finish in TD passes. Not anymore. And 7.5+ YPA was a great predictor for a top five finish in YPA. Not anymore. Now, is this just a sample-size fluke? Maybe. But we have rule changes (well, techinically a more strict enforcement of existing rules). Perhaps this is the dawn of an offensive/passing revolution similar to what baseball went through with homers and scoring in baseball during the 1990s. In other words, maybe we've changed the game until someone decides to change it back.
Here's a preview of my By The Numbers column (which appears in a newspaper near you; check your local listings).
I've notice that I always have way more guys that I want to recommend selling than those I'm considering a buy on. That probably says something about my personality. Anyway, and away we go....
Michael Vick finally was able to deal with a pass rush last week. Going into the week, he'd been sacked a league-high 24 times despite the Falcons throwing the league's fewest passes. Yesterday, he was dropped one time. If the Falcons can prove that this wasn't a one-game fluke and that they've plugged the damn and that Vick is capable of avoiding these drive-killing negative plays, then he's worth a buy. For now, let's hold him.
What to do with Drew Brees? Remember, the Raiders are the worst pass defense in the NFL by far and they were banged up on top of it. The Chargers are averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, which is usually top five but only gets them to No. 10 this year, which is still solid. But Brees isn't throwing 30 TD passes this year. He's not even likely to throw 25. The last time a Marty Schottenheimer team had more than 20 TD passes? 1990. And Schottenheimer coached teams have only finished in the top 10 in TD passes two times in 20 years.
Fine, I'll give you buy. Jabar Gaffney. Are you happy? The scouts love him and the Texans are going to three WRs as part of their base offense. He would have scored a rushing TD last week if he didn't drop the ball in the midst of an early celebration. And, no, I'm not just saying this because he's Derrick Gaffney's kid. The Texans still lead the NFL in YPA. (Yeah, I know, the Colts go to No. 1 when you factor in sacks, as Peyton's only been dropped four times, which is simply absurd.)
I'll come close to a buy with Eddie George. (We're taking baby steps with Eddie because this recommendation is all about opportunity rather than ability.) Parcells wants to run it now, promised more action for George and then backed that up by giving him 31 carries. Yeah, he has no big play ability. But he's durable and is the unquestioned goal-line back. I think he's a third RB now in most leagues and even a boarderline starter.
Back to selling. Brandon Stokley should be traded this week. I watched the Colts-Chiefs and the Colts had few answers for the Chiefs blitzing until they went to the two-TEs, which was supposed to be their base offense heading into the season. Well, why would teams take away three WRs if Manning was so dangerous throwing out of the two-TE formation? Because the Colts lost the game and defenses have to try to take something away from Manning, don't they? I think there's a good chance that Stokley is on the field a lot less in coming weeks. Why take that chance if you don't have to?
Okay, this is getting long and I have to pick up the pace so I have time to eat lunch, write my column and head off to Giants Stadium for that lovely press box food followed by the Monday Nighter.
Plaxico? I swear I was going to say to buy him before I found out he did all his damage against Ty Law's replacement. Only three catches, too? Sure Roethlisberger seems like the real deal and he gets the ball downfield more effectively than Tommy Maddox. But do the Steelers really want to throw it? I still don't think so.
I'm heavily invested in Chris Brown. But I say sell him. That turf toe isn't going to get better and he was limping around like Grandpa Moses after every carry on Sunday. Sure, he rumbled for 147 yards and was gritty. But the explosion wasn't there. How could it be?
Jamal Lewis' success depends largely on Jonathan Ogden's health. And he's iffy for the next few weeks with a hamstring after missing time earlier in the year, too. Fantasy players ignore these ancillary injuries, but in cases like this they're very, very impactful. I can't say to sell him because of his upcoming schedule: Browns, Jets, Cowboys, Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Giants. Only the Browns have been good against the run, but he rumbled for 500 yards against them last year. Still, don't expect the bounty that this upcoming schedule suggests unless Ogden returns.
Willis McGahee. Well, I'll put a strong sell on him. Yeah, I know, he's not a co-starter. He's a starter. That's no surprise, considering how heavily invested Buffalo is in him. But he averaged about three yards per carry at home against the Cardinals and the Bills managed just 11 first downs, so those 38 points were a major fluke. Hmmm. The Bills schedule isn't that bad: Jets, Rams, Bengals.... Sorry. Visions of Bledsoe dancing in my head now. Sell! Is that strong enough for you?
Entry #109932412734458597 posted by Catherine Salfino at 10:15 AM
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