Manic Monday
Hey, that's why they call it gambling, people. I'm going to defer to what the great Bud Goode says about predicting games on his website:
Link There is just too much variation around average performance from game to game for stats to be used as a predictive tool.
Why do it then? Because it's fun. It's an excercise. I think we can show where the lines are off. Of course, the line being off doesn't factor much into who wins and loses. But it at least shows you where some small degree of value is relative to the inherent vageries of the Vegas line. So we'll continue to our slightly mad search for gold like Bogart in "Treasure of the Sierra Madre." And, yes, we are aware that anything we find is likely to be of the Fool's variety.
I do believe our stats can provide insight into why teams are playing well. We're going to replace our Parcellsian TD pass net with Goode's points per passing attempt net in our RotoAction Power Index. Now there may be a more simple way to create a power ranking. In fact, Goode does it simply by using point differential after backing out all defensive and special teams TDs for and against. In other words, points scored by the offense divided by points allowed by the defense.
But I don't know where that leaves you with points set by the other units. In other words, what about an INT that gets returned to the plus-20 yard line followed by a field goal after losing three yards on three plays? Vice versa for the defense. Maybe those things cancel each other out, maybe they don't. I like the broader statistical foundation of my index. But I strongly suspect that Goode will say that YPA differential and PPA differential should be weighted. I'll try to interview him in coming weeks and will report back to you here in that event.
We'll have our updated Power Index up shortly. I'm working with my website designer to devise a format by which you can see the rankings in each of the index categories as opposed to simply the sum total of how each team ranks in every category.
Remember to check our Breakfast Table on Wednesday or Thursday for an extensive overview of Week 10.
Link
Link
Why do it then? Because it's fun. It's an excercise. I think we can show where the lines are off. Of course, the line being off doesn't factor much into who wins and loses. But it at least shows you where some small degree of value is relative to the inherent vageries of the Vegas line. So we'll continue to our slightly mad search for gold like Bogart in "Treasure of the Sierra Madre." And, yes, we are aware that anything we find is likely to be of the Fool's variety.
I do believe our stats can provide insight into why teams are playing well. We're going to replace our Parcellsian TD pass net with Goode's points per passing attempt net in our RotoAction Power Index. Now there may be a more simple way to create a power ranking. In fact, Goode does it simply by using point differential after backing out all defensive and special teams TDs for and against. In other words, points scored by the offense divided by points allowed by the defense.
But I don't know where that leaves you with points set by the other units. In other words, what about an INT that gets returned to the plus-20 yard line followed by a field goal after losing three yards on three plays? Vice versa for the defense. Maybe those things cancel each other out, maybe they don't. I like the broader statistical foundation of my index. But I strongly suspect that Goode will say that YPA differential and PPA differential should be weighted. I'll try to interview him in coming weeks and will report back to you here in that event.
We'll have our updated Power Index up shortly. I'm working with my website designer to devise a format by which you can see the rankings in each of the index categories as opposed to simply the sum total of how each team ranks in every category.
Remember to check our Breakfast Table on Wednesday or Thursday for an extensive overview of Week 10.
Link
Entry #110056654905019505 posted by Catherine Salfino at 7:32 PM
<< Home