RotoAction.com - Action Blog

Pianow's Championship Game Thoughts

2007-01-22T12:28:00.000-05:00

Off the top of my head, in no particular order . . .

One so-so game, one unreal game. Congrats to the Bears, the Colts, and their fans.

If I ran the New Orleans secondary, and I don't, I would have had Mike McKenzie on Bernard Berrian and I'd take my chances with Fred Thomas on Muhsin Muhammad. When will teams realize that Berrian is the guy who's more likely to hurt you?

Okay, I'll just say it: I'm glad we don't have to look at Reche Caldwell's eyes anymore.

Joe Theisman was trying to make the point today that a Super Bowl ring means more than a Hall of Fame ring. Sounds nice, but I don't buy it. C'mon, would you rather have Dan Marino's career, or Trent Dilfer's? Warren Moon's or Brad Johnson's? Dan Fouts's, or Doug Williams's? Jim Kelly's, or Jim Plunkett's? Most won't say it publicly, but when the career is over, the HOF spot would be more satisfying. (Moon, incidentally, never made it to a Championship Game in the NFL.)

Very underrated special-teams guy Sunday: Hunter Smith. He had some clutch holds that for the most part were ignored.

A play that will get forgotten in the Indy game is the Brady TD throw to Gaffney. When you see it again, watch Brady's unreal pocket awareness. At one point he actually slides the ball behind his back to avoid a rusher, and it's not for style, it's the right play to make.

You're probably sick of the Peyton Manning gush-fest but I have to get in two things. One, his ability to buy extra time and make ad-lib plays in and out of the pocket has improved significantly. Two, Manning understood the importance of scoring AND running clock on the final Indy possession, which underscores even more how he gets it.

I was shocked Drew Brees lost his mind for a second on that end-zone throwaway. That's not who he is.

Who choreographs for Reggie Bush? He's fun to watch, not that I'd punctuate my scores that way. Okay, I can't, never could. Still, tone it down a bit, son?

Ticky-tack calls at critical points always annoy me, and that New England personal foul on the last Indy drive was ticky-tack. Let the players decide the game.

Devin Hester, meet Indy's kick return coverage. Hmm.

I've yet to meet anyone who likes Sean Salisbury's work. I'm not asking for much. One person.

As much as my New England heart misses Adam Vinatieri, there can be no doubt that letting him walk was the right move. Later, the Pats find Gostkowski in the draft, and he's been fantastic (both on kickoffs and on field goals). And while I don't agree with how the Patriots chose to replace Deion Branch, letting him go (and getting a No. 1 pick) was clearly the right move, too.

Of course, you can't fault the Colts for trading in Vanderjagt for Vinatieri, either.

- 30 -

Inside Peyton's Head

2006-10-02T11:01:00.000-04:00

People are talking about many things involving the very fascinating Jets-Colts game yesterday. But the play that actually won the game for the Colts is getting little attention.

It caught my eye in real time, from high above the field in the press box. And it placed in sharp relief all of the qualities that make Peyton Manning a great QB (and the word "great" is so often misused in sports).

First, let's set the stage. Fourth quarter, Jet lead 28-24. Colts have the ball on the Jets 35 and it's third and six after a Manning overthrow to Wayne that was tipped and almost intercepted by Vilma. There's 1:26 left and the Colts have no timeouts. These quotes from Manning are from my convesation with him after the game in a suprisingly uncrowded Colts locker room.

"When I came to the line of scrimmage and read the defense, I was certain that I'd be able to run for the first down if I needed to. It seemed sure to be open, so that was my plan on that play."

Manning took the snap from the shotgun five yards back. The Jets rush three, with OLB Brian Thomas seemingly in man coverage against tight end Bryan Fletcher. Manning takes two steps back and, without even looking at a wide reciever and facing no pressure, dashes up the middle. But Thomas has peeled off of Fletcher and is the fourth rusher, forcing Manning to the middle of the field.

"I saw a flash of color in front of me and determined that I couldn't run."

What was this? Was it thinking? Had he calculated something consciously and come to a reasonable decision based on his view of probability at that time?

"It's not thinking," Manning said. "There's no time to think after the ball is snapped. When I come to the line of scrimmage and read the defense, that's when I'm thinking. Post-snap, it's pure reaction."

The Colts blocking scheme hadn't accounted for Thomas. But Manning instinctively runs to the back of his nearest lineman, creating a blocker for himself. But his lineman loses Thomas in the confusion and the Jet defender has a clear path to Manning. He's five feet away and Manning doesn't even have his arm cocked to throw. But Thomas hesitates for a split second, the split second that separates defeat and victory. He doesn't know whether to make the tackle or get his arms up to deflect the pass. He ends up doing neither as Manning, in a mere six frames of videotape, goes from runner to thrower and zips a perfect out to a wide-open Marvin Harrison at the Jets 16. First down. Game, essentially, over.

The ability to read defenses, studious preparation that allows for improvisational genius without the need for conscious thought, a lightening quick release, heightened awareness due to perfect arousal without fear despite large men bearing down on him with malicious intent and, finally, textbook mechanics and accuracy even while on the move on essentially a broken play. A magnificent play defining a magnificent player.

Some other notes. Manning said that the Jets blitzed him "maybe five times" all day after blitzing the Bills on about 50 percent of passing plays the week before. He also said the Jets were sitting back in deep zones and if teams do that against him, he's determined to run the football until they come out of it. Why would anyone ever play Peyton Manning any other way?

On The Couch: Week 3

2006-09-24T13:02:00.000-04:00

REFRESH THIS PAGE!

Manning had those deep ins to Burress all day last year in Seattle and went to the well again into triple coverage and got picked. See it, Eli, before you throw it.

A fade is not a good call on fourth and two, Minnesota.

A huge drop by Williamson really did in the Vikings. It would have set them up for an easy tying field goal.

Lee Evans stepped up big in garbage time.

Rex Grossman really passed maybe his first big test as a QB with that TD drive near the end after the critical mistake. Win or lose, and let's see how the Vikings and Brad Johnson respond.

I swear I was thinking last week that the pop-op onsides kick is over and teams should kick it really slow and dare the defense to touch it with everyone ready to blast him. Your goal should be to kick the ball 10 yards and one inch. The Bills just did that, basically.

Obviously, Houshmandzadeh is back. Kevan Barlow limped off, but Cedric Houston came in, not Leon Washington, for the TD.

All the teams that ran the ball down the opponents throat are going to lose: Steelers, Jaguars, Bills. I love when this happens. Teams that pass the ball down the opponents throat never lose the game they're doing it unless the opponent is doing it, too.

Dierdorf says that the Colts miss Edgerrin James because "he was such a powerful goal-line runner." Of course, James was always among the worst in the NFL at converting short-yardage and goal-line carries.

Manning is mad at the crowd, which is booing after a second non-call on pass interfernence on Marvin Harrison in or near the end zone.

These games turn around so fast in the NFL. Within one minute, real time: muffed punt leads to short Carson Palmer TD, McGahee can't get it in from in close again and the Bills try a stupid option play with the QB, who gets sacked on third down, Antoine Winfield retuns a pick for a TD in a game where the Vikings can't muster any consistent offense, turning a 9-6 deficit to a 13-9 lead.

Levi Jones limping off for the Bengals is really bad news for Carson Palmer and the Bengals, who now have a rookie at LT.

I stand corrected. Losman looks Evans' way on interceptions.

Roethlisberger does not look good at all, which should not surprise given his summer.

Clinton Portis doesn't have to worry about T.J. Duckett taking away goal-line carries if Duckett is inactive every week, which he's been twice because he doesn't play special teams. Of course, this makes you wonder why the Redskins traded for Duckett in the first place.

Simms just said the Steelers had four or five runs in their playbook this week so they could practice those plays and not have to think about them. This is such a huge point and something I noted last week when Jim Fassel said the Ravens liked a play so much they ran it two and maybe three times. These coaches are too hard-working for their own good. They thicken the playbook but don't understand how thinking during athletic is very often counterproductive. It has to be second nature.

Brunell now 21-for-21, which helps your QB rating.

The holding call in the back out of the backfield on third and 20 (Jonathan Vilma) really bugs me.

Well, Willie Parker is clearly the short-yardage back in Pittsburgh after the fourth-and-1 score.

Jets S Kerry Rhodes has caused three fumbles on sacks now in the last three-plus quarters of football. The last one resulted in a TD. He's going to Hawaii because that's just one of the many things he does very well.

Wind is really a factor in Pittsburgh, as it was last week in Denver. It's very odd for weather to play a role in September. Chris Henry just got blasted by Ryan Clark on a ball that shouldn't have been thrown by Palmer.

That was a bad time for the Jaguars to go three and out.

I'd go get the Jets Leon Washington if I was in a really deep league. I always like those Florida State guys because they only recruit the best. The key is Washington being on the field on third down and getting 10 carries as a change-of-pace back. I think that's the Jets near-term plan.

Dallas Clark could have called a fair catch on the TD reception.

Dierdorf just talked about the Colts rushing yards (10 at halftime) as being the key to this game. "I'm not sure the Colts can just throw the ball on every play." Beats running for one yard! The Colts have to soften teams up with the passing game, spread the field, bu they're short at receiver now with Stokley out. The Colts just scored on an 80-yard drive where they had two rushing yards as I'm writing.

Also officially be very worried about Ronnie Brown and Lee Evans (who Losman isn't even looking to).

Officially (at least at this moment): The Dolphins stink, the Jets are feisty, the Texans are the worst team in football, Mark Brunell is safe as starting QB, the Steelers championship defense is in trouble.l

Sharper just dropped an easy TD on a pick that should-have-been by Grossman, who doesn't look sharpe in the glimpses I'm catching.

Okay, that third-down catch and run out of crosstown traffic was so amazing by Jones-Drew that even I almost want to say it was Sanders-esque.

Maurice Jones-Drew. I feel like saying I told you so. But don't get too excited with the Barry Sanders comparisons. No one is Barry Sanders.

Carson Palmer says he still feels rusty and "very unathletic," according to Simms. He says he's not able to get his feet right when throwing.

Roethlisberger made a really bad decision in the end zone, throwing a pick that took sure points off the board in a game Pittsburgh is dominating. Houshmandzadeh just got hurt again, limping off the field.

The Jaguars are disrupting the timing of the Colts passing game. You can tell if an offensive is in synch and if the playcalling is good by how many times the QB throws to his first read. If he's looking off repeatedly, you have problems. No first-read passes yet for Manning today.

I like the way the the Vikings are attacking the Bears with their passing game. Williamson is impressive, even though he just fumbled (pending review). Supposedly wasn't conclusive. Whatever.

The Colts have scored first in 27 of the last 33 games, including today.

This game is going just the way the Jaguars drew it up. Peyton is chopping his steps after he settles into the pocket, always an indicator that he's too hyper and not sharp. He'll have to settle down.

The interception on the opening drive is bad news for Chris Simms, with Jon Gruden chomping at the bit, seemingly, to scapegoat him for the team's offensive ills.

J.P. Losman just showed how you beat the blitz with the quick hitter to Roscoe Parrish that went the distance versus the Jets.

I think Fred Taylor is going to have a big game today.

Oh, have Bengals-Steelers recording on the other tuner. But this is a week you need that great NFL Shortcuts package.

Keeping my notes here again because I type far faster than I write and I can't really read my own writing. However, I may fade again by 4 p.m. Ferris may take over then, if he's back from the sports bar.

On the big screen, Jaguars vs. Colts. The antenna televisions have Bears-Vikings and Jets-Bills (my local game, plus I always watch the Jets).

This is a really good slate of games, though a little top heavy.

On The Couch: Week 2

2006-09-17T12:07:00.000-04:00

REFRESH THIS PAGE!!

Oh, one more thing. The time has come to get Joseph Addai. And DeAngelo Williams, too. Don't move a mountain. But be willing to move a small hill.

Okay, ran out of steam in the p.m., as I'm fighting an illness. So, we're doing the 4 p.m. games all at once. But first, the Giants left me speechless. There are more flags with this team than any Giants fan cares to admit right now. New York can't protect the QB and can't stop the pass. Still, they win. Somehow. I don't want to be an Eagle walking around Philly tonight. Watch out for the flying Cheeze Whiz. In fact, pray it is only Cheez Whiz.

Michael Turner is the latest RB to audtion in "Searching for L.J.," which is playing in the dreams and ruminations of every fantasy owner in a deep league nationwide. 138 yards on 13 carries is pretty sweet. I have to catch the deatails. The Titans stink, clearly. But, if the unthinkable ever happened to L.T., well.... We don't even want to think about that.

Antonio Bryant is exciting me even with the Diva act he pulled at halftime. All the receivers are in their own little world. They think about themselves a lot. But they have to because a receiver without a ball is like a singer without a song. Now, I drafted Bryant everywhere, so I'm questioning my objectivity. I'm trying really hard not to get too excited. But it's hard. Remember, he had a 52-yard TD called back last week. Alex Smith has grown up, like Eli last year.

Not impressed by the Cardinals and Kurt Warner. Tough spot. Wasn't necessarily looking for the win. But expected the offense to put some scare into the Seattle defense and they never did.

The Jets did great blitzing Brady, like I thought they would. But they waited too long to do it. New England had the kind of late drive on the road that you expect from a great team. Would have liked to see more consistency from Chad. But he did enough to prove that we can't yet rule out a return all the way back to his fabulous 2002 form. Jerricho Cotchery is a nice little player who is built like a running back and runs like one after the catch.

Is anyone really eating the fried macaroni and cheese we're seeing in all those commercials? If you are, you should be ashamed of yourself.

Larry Johnson stepped up today and proved he's a great player. Don't talk to me about the first-quarter fumble, as he was fighting for yards after being put in an impossible position by Herm on 3rd and 5. Tatum Bell can't be an everydown back? Why does Mike Shanahan seem so sure of this? He did well in that role with a separated shoulder in 2004.

Brad Smith is running a gadget play this week. But Belichick knows that, right?

Herm runs it again on third and five by the goal line? He can't blame it on "communications problems" again, can he? (L.J. fumbled.)

Delhomme careless with the ball again on an OT blitz and this time he loses it and doesn't recover. If they call this a tuck play, I'll barf. That was not a pass! Let's see if reason prevails? Nope. Tuck. What a joke.

I like Brian Baldinger. I've talked to him once for about an hour. But he said something stupid just now, that the Panthers, who won the OT toss, should have kicked off. Here's why that's dumb. The receiving team has a better chance to win in a vacuum. There is no win indoors. Once you get to your minus 30, you have no field position edge. And what happens if the guy runs the kickoff back 50 yards?

Julius Peppers is having a game that looks like a video game cheat. He's just making it look so easy on every snap, just pummeling Brad Johnson.

Jake Delhomme has a little Brett Favre in him. And I mean that in a bad way. Tossing the ball away to avoid the sack in such an awkward way that it was ruled a fumble in the final two minutes of a tie game? He's lucky his lineman recovered. But, silly.

Knew Ryan Longwell was going to throw for a TD this week. Seriously, if you start a kicker and he throws a TD pass, you should win your game. Automatic. And I'm not saying that because I own Longwell, I swear.

The Texans coaches think rookie TE Owen Daniels can be a very productive player, we're told after he just scores. They're going to be throwing a lot.

Not impressed by anything the Ravens have done this year. Sorry. And stop dancing, Ray Lewis, against the backup QB on the worst team in football.

Giants pass defense: Back to the drawing board, boys.

Kitna 17-for-19 against the Bears? For 180+ yards and no picks? That's impressive even considering the score.

Manning (and when I say "Manning," I mean Peyton) is going to tell us to turn to another game like in the commercial, right? I keep waiting for it. He had a TD pass called back, too.

Lee Evans should have had a 50-yard TD. He was interfered with. But the bad news is that Losman's pass was underthrown enough to make interferring possible.

The Giants are really getting their asses kicked. They and their fans were too satsified with the Colts game. It was a home loss. Not good. And on the heels of that playoff embarassment? Maybe the worst game the Giants have ever played? There's no urgency on this team and there should be.

Sometimes it seems like Daunte Culpepper is playing with a blindfold. What was he looking at on that pick at the end of the first half? How is Miami losing this game? I guess one question answers the other.

The Falcons are playing a college offense. And it's working. They're doing that Texas shotgun. If the defensive end stays wide, Vick hands off to Dunn who has a hole you can drive a truck through. If he crashes down, Vick fakes it and comes around and gets the wide open lane around end. You beat this by hitting the QB on every play no matter what (he his faking as if he still has the ball when he doesn't). Ignore Dunn, kill the QB.

Reggie Wayne dropped an easy TD pass. Addai fumbled on the goal line. This game should be 28-0.

Well, there's another TD to the right by Vick. Just when I was getting excited about a stat.

Another easy TD for Stallworth. It wasn't so much a blown coverage as a terrible attempt to chuck him at the line of scrimmage. Credit Stallworth.

Chad Johnson has taken Wesley Snipes in Demolition Man to heart with that ridiculous blond mowhawk.

Okay, Chris Simms had another pass deflected on the line. What's his problem with this? Too many three-step, timing drops?

Wali Lundy's fumble is bad news if you have Lundy shares.

Giants in the shotgun on first down. You have to love that if you're an Eli Manning owner.

Mike Vick's TD pass to Crumpler last week was his first to the right side of the field since at least 2004; none last year. If you can't throw to your right as a QB, I think you have some problems.

Matt Schobel dropped an easy TD pass but then the Eagles got a break on a non-interception call that could have gone either way. Nope it doesn't, as Westbrook scoots around right end. He's a great player, much better in real life than in fantasy. But he's not built for extensive NFL duty.

Joseph Addai on the board. Nice speed on the catch and run.

Why do announcers always say stuff like, "The Texans only chance today is to run the ball!" Right, maybe they can score 17 points and win a slugfest. Please.

Blown coverage on the Toomer TD. Someone thought they were in zone, the other thought they were in man. Oops.

Palmer is on the board to Kelly Washington, of all people. Washington has some nice size and speed but can't stay healthy.

After the turnover, Manning runs on first, runs on second (for crap, of course) then throws a TD. Peyton, pass to set up the run!

Rudi Johnson runs with much more elusiveness between the tackles than I though he ever would. He's go some hops.

David Carr sacked on the first play. No one cares about your running game, boys. Second play, fumbled snap. Nice start for Carr. Maybe he just stinks.

I like the delay on satellite vs. over the air. I feel like I'm looking back in time.

The Jets have put me in the position now where I'll actually be upset if they get waxed this afternoon. I needed an emotional break from this team. Not a divorce, just a separation. But now I'm racing back into their arms.

They give fantasy picks right now when they're doing the game roundups on Fox? Crazy. Are any of these guys even in leagues? Do they play at all? Just tell us who you think is going to be the game's dominant player and why and we'll figure out the rest.

We're going most recent comment on top as opposed to on the bottom. So, this is reverse order. John Abraham is out. Abraham only plays when he's 100 percent, as the Falcons will find out. Okay, he'll go when he's 95 percent, too. But that's a rarity in the NFL.

This NFL Game Mix is so cool. And being able to get the stats through your TV DVR? Amazing. I need a bigger TV though.

So, I have Game Mix on one tuner. Recording Bills-Dolphins off the regular CBS feed. Have Giants-Eagles on a TV with rabbit ears. And have Texans-Colts ready on the previous channel button. Of course, this is all subject to change. But the only other game that interests me, that I don't think I have a good feel for pre-kickoff, is Panthers-Vikings.

On The Couch: NFL Week 1

2006-09-14T14:12:00.000-04:00

Jeremy Shockey is badly limping after every play. He does this every game, no? And there's a TD catch one play after he hobbled off the field. Is Jeremy a drama queen?

John Madden: "It's always started with the running game with the Colts." Huh? Didn't Peyton Manning throw 50 TD passes a couple of years ago? Madden used to be cool but the game has passed him by. Passing offense and defense wins games and champioships. Period.

Dungy says Addai is 40/60 splitting carries with Dominic Rhodes, who just got into the endzone. I figured Addai would get all short-yardage and goal-line action. Still, I like Addai long-term in '06. He finished off one run really nicely and showed nice hands and awareness on a circle route, not your typical RB dumpoff.

The over/under on Jerious Norwood caries is 150 and I'm going over because the Falcons are going to run Dunn into the ground. They're treating him like they treat Vick; they don't care if either gets hurt because the backups excite (Schaub for Vick).

Mike Bell owners, don't fret. When your guy is out there on fourth and one from the minus-31 in the second quarter and converts, he has the coach's trust.

Chad Pennington, welcome back. It's funny with Culpepper and Pennington. Daunte was viewed as a guy to get becasue he's looking good. But he'll never run the way he did again and that was a big part of his real and fantasy game. What did Chad lose? Arm strength? He never had that to begin with. Heck, I'll root for both to recover, but Pennington, as he's showing, was as good a bad bet to get back to peak form as Daunte.

Vince Young in the QB rotation is smart. Players have to play. Give him a package and let him master it in practice each week. It almost worked against the Jets. I still maintain Young will be great. It cracks me up that Merrill Hoge trashes him after praising "Sick Vick" for years. We KNOW Vick can't throw the football.

Phil Simms says the three-step drop has been mastered by the defenses, who understand how to disrupt the timing and get their arms up to tip a lot of passes. Maybe he's defending his son. I have to check into tipped passes stats. Then, I have to get a life.

Jake Plummer, the one-night stand in Denver.

Tatum Bell's fumble is ominous and won't be forgotten by Shanny, who always looks for a reason to cut Tatum's PT.

Willis McGahee says he's healthy for the first time since his knee surgery and really looks like he can fly now. Very quick on a pass vs. New England, where he split the secondary.

Jim Haslett has 68 blitzes in the game plan versus the Broncos? Context would be nice. But this sounds like an awful lot. I think every one of them is working.

Chiefs first red zone possession of 2006 (the Herm Edwards Era): a run on third and five. Stuffed. Boo!!!!!

Weekly Fantasy Touts: September 4 - 10

2006-09-03T12:18:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Jon Garland, P, White Sox: Gets two starts and don't be scared by the first one, at Fenway, where homers are way down this year and the Red Sox will likely be fielding a spring training lineup (no Ramirez or Ortiz).

Delmon Young, OF, Devil Rays: Okay, he threw a bat at an ump. Put it behind you like Tampa Bay has and get this power-hitting speed demon in your lineup immediately.

Bench 'em

Justin Duchscherer, P, A's: He earned some cheap saves for savvy owners, but Huston Street will be immediately returned to the closer's role when he is activated, which will likely be this week.

Manny Ramirez, OF, Red Sox: His knee tendinitis could sideline him a day, a week or the rest of the season. Suspicion from those in the know in Beantown is that the volatile Ramirez is tired of playing this year with the Red Sox no longer playing meaningful games.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Dave Bush, P, Brewers: Has dominated hitters all year, peripherally, with about 3.5 Ks for every walk. Gets two starts this week at home, Dodgers and Astros.

J.D. Drew, OF, Dodgers: Gets an extra game this week and is now batting cleanup for the Dodgers. Maybe the multi-homer game at Arizona will end his year-long power outage.

Bench 'em

Arthur Lee Rhodes, P, Phillies: Tom Gordon appears set to return this week as Phillies closer, moving Rhodes back into a middle-relief role.

Tom Glavine, P, Mets: Gets one start this week in his return back from numbness in his pitching arm. The Mets will baby him with an eye toward October. Glavine has been very shaky since before the all-star break.

Further Review Post: Battle of the NFL Power Ratings

2006-08-20T19:23:00.000-04:00

On my other blog, Further Review, which critically examines opinion/analysis in other places, we see how my RotoAction Stat Power Index ranks vs. the heralded Football Outsiders' DVOA ranking system.

Interceptions vs. Fumbles as a Winning Stat

2006-08-20T17:34:00.000-04:00

NFL stat maestro Bud Goode said long ago that interceptions are three times more costly than lost fumbles and that lumping lost fumbles with interceptions as "turnovers" made as much sense as lumping doubles and homers together under "hits" in baseball.

Of course, this is incredibly counterintuitive. Goode never came up for a reason for the discrepancy. But he speculates that lost fumbles are actually a "power" stat because teams that win more run more in the second half and thus, presumably, fumble more. More important, he said, the conclusion is consistently supported through regression analysis.

Now, I'm no statistician. But I do know my way around a scatterplot. I understand the importance of correlation. But outliers can distort correlation coefficients. For simplicity's sake, let's look at net interceptions, which we track in our Stat Power Index, largely inspired by the work of Mr. Goode, and net fumbles. We'll examine the 10 best and worst teams in each net category and compare records. If lost fumbles are so much less meaningful than interceptions, we should see a poorer correlation to success and failure as reflected in the won-loss records of the leaders and trailers in each group. Because one year can distort, we'll look at 2004, too.

First 2005. The 10 best teams in net fumbles (recovered vs. lost) had a .642 winning percentage. The 10 worst, .422. In net interceptions, the 10 best teams last year had a .675 winning percentage, the 10 worst, .324. Advantage net interceptions, but that does not seem to correspond to a 3-to-1 ratio in relative importance in favor of interceptions.

I understand that Mr. Goode wasn't tracking the net stat, but rather each specific instance of a lost fumble or interception in the context of a game. Still, he nets other stats, such as YPA, so why not do the same with lost fumbles and picks?

Was 2005 an outlier year? In 2004, the 10 best teams in net fumbles had a .585 winning percentage, the 10 best in net picks .675. That's much more significant on the winning side. But net picks did not do as good a job in predicting losers as in 2005, with the trailers in net fumbles coming in at .375 and trailers in net picks actually having more success with a winning percentage of .400.

I was shocked to find that 6 of the 11 teams that at least tied for the top 10 spots in net fumbles repeated the feat in 2005 (when two teams again tied for 10th place). Only four teams that led in net picks in 2004 repeated the feat in 2005. I would have guessed that lost fumbles were more a product of luck than interceptions. But that conclusion is not supported by this small data set. On the other hand, the Saints and Jets were tied for first and third in net fumbles in 2004 (plus-10 and plus-9, respectively), but LAST in 2005 (-10 and -12, respectively). A swing of 20 turnovers can cause a radical swing in won-loss record. Giants fans should be wary, as they led the NFL last year in the stat, at plus-12.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: August 21-27

2006-08-12T13:17:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Coco Crisp, OF, Red Sox: It's been a season of stops and starts for Crisp, who has been hurt by being placed at the bottom of the Boston lineup. But Crisp is running enough to be a decent fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Craig Monroe, OF, Tigers: He's been on fire and is now cemented at the top of the lineup given the injury to Placido Polanco, who is out indefinitely. The pop has been there all year (now slugging .500 after a batting-average surge).

Bench 'em

Joe Saunders, P, Angels: The latest young gun with a tired wing.
Don't count on the two starts tentatively scheduled for Saunders, who is likely to get extra rest. If he's not rested, pencil him in for a couple rockings.

Jonny Gomes, OF, Devil Rays: He's needed shoulder surgery for months and is now saying he'll have it now only if he can return by spring training. What good does putting it off do? Either way, he's not hitting.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Jake Peavy, P, Padres: He just NOW got his contact lenses he's been expecting since March? Ever hear of Fed Ex? He says he now can finally see the catcher's signs. I'm not making this up.

Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies: Still more a name than a fantasy asset. But he's at least getting his average back up over .300, though the power is likely gone for good.

Bench 'em

Barry Bonds, OF, Giants: He's always hurt and just not productive enough to even mix and match with the decent reserves available in mixed leagues.

Jose Vidro, 2B, Nationals: Yes, he's coming off the disabled list. But he no longer has even middling power and doesn't run at all.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: August 6 - 12

2006-08-05T10:52:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Javy Lopez, C, Red Sox: He's not likely to hit much better than the injured Jason Varitek (knee surgery), but anyone can get hot for two months and he's in a great lineup.

Cory Lidle, P, Yankees: Gets two starts this week after a stellar debut in 120 degrees of heat index. Everything is seeming to roll the Yankees way right now, so get on board the bandwagon where you can.

Bench 'em

Matt Garza, P, Twins: The Twins are letting him rot in Rochester in favor of minor-league journeyman Mike Smith. They should look towards the Tigers and push young talent more quickly into prominent roles.

Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers: Another second-half fold for Stammerin' Hank (sub-.300 slugging percentage since the All-Star break).

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Matt Murton, OF, Cubs: The power numbers are disappointing, but the at bats should come furiously now that the Cubs are in 2007-mode. Coming off a streak of 15 ribbies in 16 games.

Byung-Hyun Kim, P, Rockies: Coors has mysteriously become the league's best pitcher's park. Kim is on the road this week, but gets two starts and has fired gems his last two outings.

Bench 'em

Jeff Kent, 2B, Dodgers: The oblique strain isn't getting better. Where does he play when he returns, given the acquisition of Julio Lugo, a far superior defender and arguably a better offensive force now, too?

Bronson Arroyo, P, Reds: His last outing was on three-day's rest. That's not going to reverse the poor trend-line of late, as he's quickly regressed to his Red Sox form.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: July 31 - August 5

2006-07-29T13:55:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Mark Teahen, 3B, Royals: Very quietly has become one of the best slugging third baseman in the majors since his recall in June. He's should be started now in all formats.

Alexis Rios, OF, Blue Jays: Finally back from his staph infection. Put him in immediately and hope he didn't lose his mojo, as he was a top 20 fantasy player before getting sidelined.

Bench 'em

Scott Kazmir, P, Devil Rays: The D-Rays say they're going to trot him out there on Tuesday in Detroit despite the tender shoulder. But they might come to their senses and play it safe.

Torii Hunter, OF, Twins: This would be a miracle recovery from a stress fracture if he were to be activated when eligible on Monday. See if he can play for a week before taking a leap of faith.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Francisco Cordero, P, Brewers: He's been lights-out since April and should immediately settle in as Brewers closer in the weaker-hitting NL.

Josh Barfield, 2B, Padres: The Padres have to move him up in the lineup, as he's hit well over .400 in July with power and speed.

Bench 'em

David Eckstein, SS, Cardinals: He's always looked like the bat boy. Now, he hits like one. Entering the weekend, one RBI in July. Yes, he's still batting .300, but well under .250 this month.

Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies: Finally banged out a couple of hits on Thursday. But he's been a black hole at first base for weeks. Mixed-leaguers can't afford to keep him active while he stumbles to find his lost stroke.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: July 24 - 30

2006-07-21T19:52:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Fausto Carmona, P, Indians: The new closer in Cleveland, replacing the traded Bob Wickman (Atlanta). Carmona has top-shelf stuff and the Indians are a good team despite the record.

Javier Vazquez, P, White Sox: Rumored to be on the block for some relief help. He's been very unlucky on balls in play. Has three times as many Ks as BBs and gets two starts (Twins, Orioles).

Bench 'em

Alex Rios, OF, Blue Jays: His staff infection has proved a much greater setback than originally believed. He will not travel with the team on Monday, even though he's begun taking batting practice.

Jaret Wright, P, Yankees: He's been decent lately even though he can't get past about 90 pitches. But mixed-leaguers cannot risk a lone start this week in Texas, where the Rangers have always pounded Wright.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Barry Bonds, OF, Giants: The rumored perjury indictment went bust for the government, which threatened to keep pressing the case with a new grand jury. Bonds responded with a long fly ball and homer right after word of the reprieve.

Ben Sheets, P, Brewers: Finally returns to the rotation, barring a last-minute setback (always a risk with Sheets). Set for two starts (Pirates, Reds). Forget the bad '06 ERA and focus on that 28/1 K/BB ratio.

Bench 'em

Luis Gonzales, OF, Diamondbacks: Mouthed off after getting benched against lefties. Hasn't done much this year against righties either and offers owners no speed and little power (seven homers).

Aaron Cook, P, Rockies: He's been very serviceable this year due to pinpoint control. But fortune is likely to turn this week in his one start, at Coors, vs. St. Louis (7.41 career ERA against).

Weekly Fantasy Touts: July 17-23

2006-07-16T12:52:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Kevin Mench, OF, Rangers: Nice buy-low candidate, as he'll get regular at-bats due to some All-Star break roster shuffling by Texas.

Milton Bradley, OF, A's: If you're unfortunate enough to own Bradley, you must activate him now because it's not likely going to be long before the next strain or sprain.

Bench 'em

Eric Chavez, 3B, A's: Tendinitis in both forearms does not bode well for a second-half breakout. Chavez says he's focused on the last two months of the season, which rules out the rest of July.

Ambiorix Burgos, P, Royals: Mike MacDougal returns to the closing role. This is good news for Burgos owners, who will no longer be tempted to tolerate all those bad innings by the prospect of a few saves.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Mike Cameron, OF, Padres: San Diego players are lobbying for Cameron to be moved into the three-hole (nine homers and 18 RBI since June 1).

Dontrelle Willis, P, Marlins: Five straight quality starts and 10 in his last 11. More important are the 31 Ks in the last 38 innings (10 walks).

Bench 'em

Pedro Martinez, P, Mets: Now, it's a stomach virus that's causing him to miss his Tuesday start. The Mets are going to treat the rest of the regular season as extended spring training for Pedro, who they want to preserve for October.

Royce Clayton, SS, Reds: The only park that would improve Clayton's power (no homers) is in Williamsport, PA, home of the Little League World Series.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: July 10-16

2006-07-09T18:52:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Mike Napoli, C, Angels: Who could have seen this coming? Napoli (11 bombs in his first 131 Angel ABs) flashed good power in AA last year, but he was old for the league and K'ed 140 times.

Randy Johnson, P, Yankees: The glass is half empty for disappointed Johnson owners. But lower your expectations and you'll see he still projects as a solid, mixed-league starter the second half.

Bench 'em

Mike Sweeney, 1B, Royals: He's allegedly beginning a rehab assignment soon. First, he gets an epidural. That's fine if you're birthing twins, but not if you plan on swinging a bat in anger a few hundred times this summer.

Javy Lopez, C, Orioles: Will lose his DH spot once Jay Gibbons comes off the DL. Nick Markakis is punch and judy, but is now entrenched as an OF because he's hot and has youth on his side.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Jeff Weaver, P, Cardinals: Yes, I touted him a couple of weeks ago when he was designated for assignment. But he had a 22:2 K/BB ratio in his AL finishing kick. He'll help you now that he's in the NL. Honest.

Eddie Guardardo, P, Reds: He's just about finished and has a torn labrum, but he's closing. Wait for him to reel off a couple of saves and then trade him.

Bench 'em

Morgan Ensberg, 3B, Astros: Just five ribbies the last month. I like him long-term, but he's been moved down in the lineup and should be reserved in mixed leagues.

Paul Lo Duca, C, Mets: The worst all-star this side of Mark Redman. He's now 34 and has always regressed in the second half. Lo Duca no power and offers little defensive value, so his playing time should diminish.

Mike Tackles Mainstream Sports Media in New Blog

2006-07-02T08:38:00.000-04:00

On his new blog, Further Review, Mike throws the challenge flag and puncture media pundits with laser-like scrutiny of their sports analysis.

Be sure to bookmark it and check it out regularly.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: July 3-9

2006-07-02T08:36:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners: The Seattle third sacker has hit well over .300 with decent power since being moved up to the No. 2 spot in the batting order. On pace for 20-plus steals, Beltre can be safely started in all formats.

Ervin Santana, P, Angels: The subject of trade rumors with the Angles itching to roster phenom Jared Weaver, Santana has been very effective of late and gets two starts this week.

Bench 'em

Jon Lester, P, Red Sox: Gets just one start and is really putting up high pitch counts because of shaky control (six walks per nine innings). Like most rookie starters, Lester's been babied and suddenly find himself on pace for 200 frames.

Jamie Moyer, P, Mariners: He's a useful pitcher to roster even in mixed leagues. But this week, Moyer gets one start against a Angels team that will start five veterans with .300-plus averages versus him.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Mike Cameron, OF, Padres: Flashing the power and speed that his owners were anticipating on draft day. The batting average will continue to be a problem, but he's hot now.

Jake Peavy, P, Padres: He's piling up the strikeouts and has a clean bill of health. A breakout is coming and he gets two starts this week.

Bench 'em

Chuck James, P, Braves: Rookies like James should be active in mixed formats only when they get two starts or one really favorable one. This week, James' one start is against the Cardinals, which doesn't qualify.

Mike Gonzalez, P, Pirates: Had no saves for over two weeks thanks to the Pirates losing streak. He still walks too many (over five passes per nine innings) to add value when not closing.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: June 26 - July 2

2006-06-23T12:36:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Jhonny Peralta, SS, Indians: He's been on fire since being benched for three-days to clear his head. Has returned to the No. 3 hole in a good Cleveland lineup.

Jeff Weaver, P, Angels: Fantasy baseball has labeled him "the stinky Weaver" (as opposed to phenom brother Jared). But Jeff gets two starts off an impressive three weeks that have seen a tremendous spike in his K-rate (24 punch-outs in 24 innings).

Bench 'em

Justin Verlander, P, Tigers: He says his declining velocity (which is still over 95 MPH) is due to a decrease in excitability. But it's more likely due to an increased workload, which never exceeded 130 innings before '06.

Jeremy Sowers, P, Indians: He's in line for only one start this week. Don't buy him as a top prospect despite the sparking ERA in AAA because he was striking out less than five per nine innings there. That projects to under four in the majors, which is not nearly enough to survive, let alone thrive.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Jose Valentin, 2B, Mets: He's entrenched as starter with an OPS of almost .900. Valentin has raised his average from .214 to .300 since becoming a regular.

Anthony Reyes, P, Cardinals: Reyes was dominant last week against a great White Sox team in his return from AAA, where he was lights out (65 Ks, 8 BBs in 71 innings).

Bench 'em

Chad Billingsley, P, Dodgers: He's laboring as a 21-year-old rookie, which should never surprise. The pitch counts are too high too early and he's not missing enough bats (just four Ks in his first 10 innings).

Moises Alou, OF, Giants: Last week, he complained of not being able to bend over without searing back pain. Expect any returns going forward to be diminishing and make sure he's on your bench until he at least can tie his own shoes.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: June 19 - 25

2006-06-16T17:46:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Danny Haren, P, A's: Yes, he's got one start in Colorado this week, but also is slated to pitch in San Francisco. Haren's red hot right now, has almost five times as many Ks as BBs and has stopped giving up the long ball.

Rocco Baldelli, OF, Devil Rays: He came back swinging and is playing the field, so there are no worries during the entire inter-league slate. He'll quickly find his 2003 form.

Bench 'em

Todd Jones, P, Tigers: Just awful and has no business closing games in Detroit, as the Tigers have lights-out reliever Joel Zumaya throwing 102 MPH. Through his first 24 innings, Jones had seven strikeouts.

Jason Giambi, DH, Yankees: Troublesome hand and wrist injuries have put his status next week in doubt. With the Yanks traveling to Philly, Giambi can't DH and you can't risk wasting a roster spot in mixed leagues on a pinch hitter.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Greg Maddux, P, Cubs: He hasn't benefitted at all this year from the Cubs sparkling defense. That bad luck on balls in play will be corrected. Plus, he gets two starts this week (at Cleveland, at Minnesota).

Omar Vizquel, SS, Giants: He's a salty sea dog, but you have to respect the stats. With twice as many walks as strikeouts, Vizquel's likely to maintain a plus-.300 average. He'll remain useful in mixed leagues if he steals 15-to-20 bags.

Bench 'em

Shawn Hill, P, Nationals: Doesn't miss enough bats to bet on this week in his lone start against the Boston, which, like all teams, tees off on the in-between stuff.

Cole Hamels, P, Phillies: Even with the Yanks defanged with the losses of Sheffield, Matsui and maybe even Giambi, you don't want your one weekly start to be versus them in that band box in Philly.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: June 12 - 18

2006-06-09T23:12:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

David DeJesus, OF, Royals: He's being ignored in mixed leagues, but a .900 OPS going forward is possible and he's red hot since returning from the disabled list.

Mark DeRosa, 2B, Rangers: This year's David Delucci. We've mentioned him here before, but he's owned in only one percent of mixed leagues. DeRosa spends a lot of time batting fifth in a potent Rangers lineup and also qualifies in the outfield.

Ervin Santana, P, Angels: The Angels have some decisions to make when Bartolo Colon returns next weekend. But Santana has pitched well and is scheduled for two home starts this week against poor offenses (Royals, Padres).

Bench 'em

Bobby Crosby, SS, A's: He's been battling a sore finger and then was hit in the hand with a pitch (though x-rays were negative). Crosby is sacrificing average for still-not-enough power (striking out about 20 percent of at bats).

Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees: He's a pesky hitter with no speed and pop-gun power. So, he's roster-worthy only in AL-only leagues. Don't buy into the New York hype machine, which is in overdrive after a game-saving catch last week against Boston.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Andy Pettitte, P, Astros: He's been slumping, but is still striking out enough batters. This week, he gets two starts against the worst hitting teams in the majors (at Cubs, Royals).

David Ross, C, Reds: Maybe older catchers suddenly become potent hitters due to seeing all those pitches from the perfect vantage point (behind the dish). With over 1,000 OPS points and six homers in his first 80 at bats, Ross deserves a start in all formats.

Bench 'em

Juan Pierre, OF, Cubs: There's no way mixed leaguers need steals bad enough to roster an OF with five RBI in his first 246 at bats.

Lastings Milledge, OF, Mets: Xavier Nady is so worried about being Wally Pipped by Milledge that he's set to return from an appendectomy on Tuesday (about two weeks early). Will the dynamic Milledge become a bench player? Shipped back to AAA for regular at bats? That's too much uncertainty for mixed leaguers.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: June 5 - 11

2006-06-02T10:34:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Jorge Cantu, 2B, Devil Rays: He'll be back sometime during the week from his foot injury, so monitor his status closely so as not to lose ABs from this power-hitting middle-infielder.

Rich Harden, P, A's: Finally back from the DL. Yes, he gets only one start this week against the Yankees, but that's not such a tough matchup anymore with both Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield out indefinitely.

Bench 'em

Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers: He's been battling back pain all season. 2005 looks like a career year. He hit .343 on balls in play last year and is now back to his career rate of about .300.

Eric Bedard, P, Orioles: So much for the magic of Leo Mazzone. Bedard's down to about five Ks per game from eight in '05. And he's allowing homers twice as frequently on fly balls (about 15 percent compared to the league average of 10 percent).

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Freddy Sanchez, 3B, Pirates: Ended last week as the NL's leading hitter. GM David Littlefied is on record saying Joe Randa gets his job back when he returns from the DL next week. Manager Jim Tracy strongly suggested he disagrees.

Jorge Julio, P, Diamondbacks: Julio was anointed closer by Arizona until Jose Valverde works out his recent troubles in middle relief. Julio is not reliable, but is able to dominate hitters and is worth a flyer on the small chance he settles in long-term.

Bench 'em

Tony Womack, 2B, Cubs: Like Jason in those "Friday the 13th" movies, Womack just won't stay dead. With the acquisition of Phil Nevin and imminent return of Derrek Lee, Todd Walker moves back to second (sending Womack to the bench).

Oliver Perez, P, Pirates: We liked what we saw in his great start last week against the Astros. But he goes just one time this week and it's in Colorado, so keep him reserved in all formats.

Royals vs. All-Time Worsts

2006-05-26T10:29:00.000-04:00

The Royals currently sit at 11-35 and are on pace for 123 losses. They clearly are the wrost team in baseball this year. But how do they stack up against the all-time worst teams?

There's a lot of subjectivity in this ugly pageant. But we've narrowed the focus down to five teams, with a bias agaisnt selecting one team per era.

We start off with the 1916 Philly A's, who finished 36-117. Their offensive OPS is .612, which seems really bad but was actually 96th percentile in the AL that year. We don't have pitching OPS stats that year. But the A's gave up 1.2 runs more per game than the next most generous team (31 percent more than the Tigers allowed that year). The A's 19 homers were second most in the AL that year. But they allowed 26, second worst. Ace Elmer Myers walked 168 batters (in 315 innings). The A's led the league in walks allowed 715, which will make the sabermatricians happy.

We now sail through this putrescence all the way to 1935, where we come across the stink of the Boston Braves (38-115). Their .671 OPS was 91 percent the league average. But the Phillies had a worse OPS and the Phillies also allowed more runs per game (yet Philly finished 64-89). Ace Frank Frankhouse struck out 64 in 230.7 innings. OF Wally Berger carried the offense with 34 homers and 130 RBI while no other starter hit more than five homers. (Babe Ruth did have six jacks in 72 Abs before retiring in-season.)

Next up, the 1962 Mets at 40-120. 88th percentile with a .643 OPS, tied for Houston for the league's worst mark (but the Colt 45s scored less runs per game). The staff allowed 5.89 runs per game, .79 or 15 percent worse than the next worst team, the Cubbies (5.10), which is nowhere near as bad as the 1916 A's. Roger Craig famously lost 24 games. The Mets actually led the league in offensive walks (sorry, sabermetricians). Richie Ashburn had 81 BBs and 39 Ks on his way to compiling a .424 OBP, a mark topped by only John Olerud and Edgardo Alfonzo in team history.

Our first foray into modernity is the 1979 Blue Jays at 53-109, The 1979 Oakland A's had a worse offense, though Toronto finished in the 81st percentile in OPS. The Blue Jays did allow the most runs per game, but just one-hundredth more than the A's. In fact, you can make a case that Oakland, not Toronto was the worst team in the league that year. Back to Toronto, Bob Bailor started the entire year in right field despite just one homer and a .229 average. Danny Ainge started the most games at second after ending his season with the Celtics, but had a .555 OPS in 308 ABs.

Remember the 2003 Tigers, 43-119? It seems just like yesterday, doesn't it? Again, in the 81st percentile in OPS, but this was by far the worst offensive mark around. The pitching was also putrid, at 5.73 RPG, second worst to Texas. Five offensive starters had a slugging percentage at or below .373. SS Ramon Santiago had over 400 Abs despite a .576 OPS. Finally, we can have some OPS differential to stack up against the Royals. The Tigers team OPS .675/allowed .813 for a differential of minus .138, which is REALLY bad.

Now, back to the future with the 2006 Royals. Net OPS for them is minus .143 (.709 for/.852 against). The Mariners and Angels actually have worse offenses, at least so far. But the Royals do have the worst pitching. Last in K/BB ratio (1.25; Twins are first), 27th in Ks (Mets are first), second to the Blue Jays in most homers allowed. The season totals are a little skewed by the fact that KC (along with Boston) has played the majors fewest games, two less than average at the moment.

We've made as strong case for the 1916 A's as the major's all-time worst team. But the Royals are right there with the 2003 Tigers in the mix. The 1962 Mets are a shade behind, I think. Sure, the pitching was awful, but only half as bad as the 1916 A's relative to the next worst staff. And the Mets offense wasn't even the worst in the league that year (thanks to all those walks, I guess). But most of 2006 remains unwritten. So, let's go Royals! Do something historic in a so-bad-it's-good, "Cocktail" (the movie) kind of way.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: May 29 - June 4

2006-05-26T10:27:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers: Homered twice on Thursday when he finally returned from a dislocated thumb. He's a good bet to finish with 20 homers and 15 steals and thus should be active in all formats.

Jose Lopez, 2B, Mariners: This year's Jorge Cantu is for real. But Lopez is smooth with the glove, too, and projects long-term at second base. Unlike Cantu, Lopez is a groundball hitter, which helps his average but limits his homer upside to the low 20s.

Bench 'em

Jorge Posada, C, Yankees: At press time, the word from the Bronx was that he wasn't going to be placed on the disabled list due to his torn hamstring tendon. But that doesn't mean he'll be playing this week.

Felix Hernandez, P, Mariners: Seattle screwed with a good thing when they ordered him to stop throwing his devastating slider out of fear that would cause an arm injury. So now it has a healthy starter who's getting raked. Congrats.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Cliff Floyd, OF, Mets: He's too good a hitter to continue slumping. As always, he's battling an assortment of minor injuries. But he's likely in the middle of a hot streak.

Greg Maddux, P, Cubs: The Pitcher of the Month of April has wilted in May. But most players randomly alternate cold and hot streaks. Maddux gets two starts this week (Cincy, at St. Louis).

Bench 'em

Taylor Buchholz, P, Astros: He's too young and owns stuff that's too modest to rely on in mixed leagues despite the shutout last week. Plus, he gets only one start this week (at St. Louis).

Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies: Long-term, he'll bounce back. But he isn't running enough and has been bumped down to the bottom of the lineup. So, mixed leaguers need to explore better options this week.

Happy Birthday Bob Dylan

2006-05-23T10:20:00.000-04:00

There's a great celebration about to take place on WFUV here in New York. To celebrate Bob Dylan's 65th birthday tomorrow, fans are voting for their 15 favorite Dylan songs and stating why. Each person gets three picks. Here were mine:

Girl of the North Country

Dylan's most touching song. For me, it's about the timelessness and persistence of innocent love, which somehow always manages to survive earthly constraints. The song brilliance is in the remoteness of the narrarator, who either can't bear to confront his past or does not want to spoil the memories -- and, really, what's the difference?

Watching the River Flow

So many of the things that drag us down are ephemeral. What could possibly capture this truth better than the image of the spokesman of the counter-culture sitting on a bank of sand and contemplating the relative permanence of a flowing river in the face of rising dissent over the transitory issues of the day.

Visions of Johanna

So vibrant and interesting upon each listening. The song strikes a unique balance between surrealism and realism. Great art makes the strange familiar and the familiar strange and there's no song in the Dylan cannon that accomplishes this better than VOJ.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: May 22 - 28

2006-05-19T14:44:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Francisco Liriano, P, Twins: Finally in the rotation after toiling away in middle relief while the Twins trotted out mediocrities like Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse. Don't buy into the Johan Santana Jr. hype, but get him active in all formats.

Justin Verlander, P, Tigers: He's only striking out five guys per nine innings despite being clocked at 100 MPH. But his walk rate is about half that and one of his two starts this week is vs. KC.

Bench 'em

Matt Clement, P, Red Sox: He hasn't been the same since being being hit in the face with a line drive, which is not unprecedented in baseball history. One start this week vs. the Yankees mean any hopes of a turnaround will very likely have to wait.

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners: 2004 was a career year. Now, he is struggling mightily, being called into closed-door meetings, battling a tender hammy.... What more do you need to put him on the pine?

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Cole Hamels, P, Phillies: You can never expect a rookie pitcher to break out. But while he's battling some rookie jitters and only throws in the low 90s, Hamels' minor league stats indicate a decent chance for quick success.

Pedro Feliz, 3B, Giants: He had 10 ribbies in a three-game series in Houston last week and entered the weekend slugging .500. But it won't last long with him striking out more than five times as often as he walks.

Bench 'em

Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds: Since he hit only .254 in AAA last year, it's no shock that he's crashed back to earth (hitting .233 with just a .267 slugging percentage over the past three weeks). He'll soon play his way out of a job.

Moises Alou, OF, Giants: He's recovering more quickly than expected from an ankle sprain, but is still iffy for the week. So soldier on with your designated replacement.

Dan Pompei is an Idiot

2006-05-16T10:08:00.000-04:00

There's always a lot of stupid things said in the Sporting News (which has improved over the past five years to the point where it now takes seven minutes to read anything useful in it as opposed to five).

For example, we get the "Scouts Views," which are always packed with insight. This week, we were told "Cliff Floyd's hitting zone is limited..." That's really unusual, a guy not being able to hit certain pitches, say high and tight and low and away.

This week, Dan Pompei treated us to his breathless reporting about how the Saints are going to feature a two halfback offense and that it can work "because the thinking on offense is expanding." Maybe the Cardinals can figure out a way to play Leinart and Warner a the same time and really break the bounderies of convention.

He says, "Plus Payton can take a look at how the Vikings over the years have found ways to open up seams in the running game without a lead blocker."

Not having a lead blocker when you have an extra tight end or wide receiver is one thing. Not having a lead blocker because you have a guy in the backfield who can't block is another. But I would love to see Reggie Bush clearing the way for Deuce McAllister on a lead draw, slamming into inside backers. That's a great way to protect a $50 million investment.

But Pompei isn't done: "...playing Bush and McAllister together isn't much different from playing Tony Gonzalez and Priest Holmes together."

What? So playing people at the same position isn't much differnet than playing people together at differnt positions? What revolutionary thinking!

The key, he says, will be sending one in motion (thus turning one into a wide receiver). Teams aren't going to give a crap about Deuce being flanked out wide. Having Bush out there will be scary, but there's nothing revolutionary about that and then he has to make his living beating NFL corners instead of linebacker and safeties. So, there are diminishing returns there.

I said it then and will say it again: drafting Reggie Bush was the dumbest thing the Saints could have done given their financial commitment to McAllister. There's no way to rationalize spending $100 million on a couple of halfbacks in a salary capped NFL world. It was and remains insane. Even spending half that on one back is stupid becasue, as McAllister proved, backs are hurt too easily. The Saints, as presently constructed, have no room for error in personnel investements. And they will make errors, like all teams do. So, Bush plus McAllister is hopeless even if both stay healthy and productive.

Media Madness (Off Topic)

2006-05-16T09:50:00.000-04:00

There has to be a way to combine our three current media obsessions:

--The bald dude being voted off American Idol

--The immigration "crisis"

--Alligator attacks in Florida

How about: Each week we get to vote to deport entire Mexican towns not just out of the country but into a waiting alligator pit located in central Florida, right outside of Disney World. Lou Dobbs can host. It can be based either on how a representative immigrant from said town either (a) scrubs toilets or (b) sings shmaltzy ballads/pop dreck. Better yet, let's have them sing while they scrub before the panel of judges: Rush Limbaugh, Edward James Olmos and Paula Abdul (but on the condition that Limbaugh and Abdul are always high). All phone votes monitored and verified by the U.S. Government.

Note: the majority of Americans say that the voting controversy on American Idol is as important as the controversy that ended the 2000 presidential election. What a country!

Weekly Fantasy Touts: May 15 - 21

2006-05-12T16:14:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees: Has some promise as a hitter (.385 this year in AAA) and gets full-time at bats with wrist injuries to Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui, the later possibly season ending.

Brandon McCarthy, P, White Sox: We're not as bullish as some with that modest K-rate in relief no less. But he gets two starts this week (at Twins, Cubs), replacing Jose Contreras (pinched nerve), who is sidelined indefinitely.

Bench 'em

:Mark Kotsay (OF, A's): HIs chronic back woes may prevent him from ever expressing the power he's flashed in recent years.

Ian Kinsler (2B, Rangers): With Buck Showalter favorite Mark DeRosa tearing it up, the Rangers are in no rush to activate Kinsler and when they do, it may be in a backup role despite a blistering start before dislocating his thumb.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Dontrelle Willis, P, Marlins: With one homer allowed and twice as many strikeouts as walks in his first 46 innings, his ERA with average luck/defense on balls in play would be 3.23, not 6.22 (where it sits).

Dave Roberts, OF, Padres: He still sits against lefties, but that's okay if he keeps running wild (seven steals in his last seven games heading into the weekend).

Bench 'em

Brian Giles, 2B, Braves: The chipped bone and sprained ligament in his finger seem to be lingering. The safe play in mixed leagues is to reserve him until you know he proves he's healthy by stringing together some hits.

Aaron Rowand, OF, Phillies: It must be next to impossible to hit with a broken nose. Rowand's tough and will try to play through it. He doesn't command the strike zone well enough to keep hitting .300.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: May 8 - May 14

2006-05-08T08:55:00.000-04:00

Forgot to post this when I wrote it on Friday:

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Julio Lugo, SS, Devil Rays: Finally back from a strained rib cage, Lugo offers top speed and runs scored batting lead-off for Tampa Bay. Start him in all formats.

Paul Byrd, P, Indians: When you can find a pitcher on the waiver wire who gets two weekly starts with one against the weakling Royals, get him active. Byrd is a control artist who should rebound from April woes.

Bench 'em

Brad Wilkerson, OF, Rangers: After striking out 41 times in his first 102 at bats, Wilkerson re-injured his shoulder on Thursday crashing into an OF wall.

Justin Huber, 1B, Royals: Only in the bizarro Royals' world does it make sense to call up on of your handful of top prospects (led the Texas League in hitting in '05) and bench him in favor of 38-year-old journeyman Matt Stairs.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies: Back from his intestinal distress, which rumors of a lengthy stay on the DL created for all of his owners. The Rockies are mashing the ball in the early going.

Jeff Kent, 2B, Dodgers: Yes, he entered the weekend hitting .180. But the due theory does have some merit in baseball. Even at 38, Kent is too good to keep struggling.

Bench 'em

Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins: While his owners looked forward to a return from the DL this week, a setback in rehabbing his hip flexor pushed Hermida's timetable back slightly .

Oliver Perez, P, Pirates: The Pirates announced this week they're at a loss and are going to let Perez do whatever he wants to try to recapture his 2004 form. Make sure the experiment does not continue on your dime.

Net OPS Leaders

2006-05-05T12:22:00.000-04:00

(SCROLL DOWN FOR THE YOUNG/BONDS POSTS)

Through the first month:

Team/ Net OPS
Tigers 0.208
Yankees 0.197
Brewers 0.13
Mets 0.108
White Sox 0.1
Indians 0.067
Rockies 0.065
Cardinals 0.042
Blue Jays 0.039
Astros 0.035
Rangers 0.033
Reds 0.024
Red Sox 0.017
Dodgers 0.011
DBacks 0.01
Braves -0.007
Angels -0.015
Nationals -0.023
Marlins -0.032
A's -0.037
Cubs -0.043
Giants -0.049
Orioles -0.054
Mariners -0.065
Padres -0.074
Phillies -0.078
Devil Rays -0.123
Pirates -0.131
Royals -0.152
Twins -0.209

My Fair Vince

2006-05-05T09:42:00.000-04:00

Trent Dilfer said a really dumb thing on the NFL Network last night. People say dumb things all the time, obviously. But this was noteworthy, I think, because it reflects reflexive NFL thinking. Here's what he said:

"Most people, most traditionalists, don't belive that Vince Young can become a drop-back, in-the-pocket, NFL passer in this league. I tend to disagree. But I disagree on this notion: he has to be coached the right way. I'm really interested to see how Norm Chow, a guy who has incredible success on the college level developing quarterbacks, teaching him the fundamentals. Teach him every aspect of being a dropback quarterback. How that transitions into the NFL, taking this incredible athlete, a guy who has been incredibly successful in college football and see if he can mold him and shape him and discipline him into being a dropback quarterback in the National Football League."

The premise that you need to change Young into being a dropback passer is what's stupid here. If you wanted a dropback passer, you shouldn't have drafted Young. Does Dilfer, et al, believe that Young should be turned into Dan Marino? No one is more of an advocate of dropback, down-the-field passing than me. But there are exceptions to every rule. Young has to be given the latitude to freelance and make plays with his feet or his unique talent is being wasted.

It is scary to think that Chow, who is known for developing the statues like Palmer and Leinart, is going to be in charge of transitioning Young into the NFL. Let's hope he doesn't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

END OF POST

Mike's Letter to the Editor

2006-05-05T09:38:00.000-04:00

You know I couldn't let the sanctimonious Bonds editorial in my local paper yesterday stand unchallenged:

There is zero scientific evidence that steroids actually enhance baseball performance. In fact, University of California Professor Emeritus of Economics Art De Vany has proven pretty conclusively that Barry Bonds' recent exploits are consistent with the variation experienced by other great home run hitters throughout baseball history. The same is true of home runs in general.

Evidence aside, I'll answer the ridiculously sanctimonious question from your May 4 editorial. Players who took steroid sought the same advantages we all seek with enhancements such as Viagra, botox, breast implants, hair transplants, Rogaine, nose jobs, diet pills, SAT sample tests (i.e., cheating), resume "building" (i.e., lying), , creative accounting (i.e., stealing), etc., etc. We do what it takes to get more money and power. You glorify athletes when you expect them to act differently despite being in the most cut-throat of all businesses. Athletes aren't heroes, but merely people.

And don't feel sorry for Roger Maris. His teammate Jim Bouton documented the widespread use of illegal amphetamines in his Yankees clubhouse decades ago in his book, "Ball Four."

Michael Salfino
Rutherford, May 4

Mike vs. Mel Kiper

2006-05-01T12:46:00.000-04:00

First off, I felt I had a horrible mock draft. Picking players is hard. Teams keep doing silly things like trading up. Some still insist on "taking the best available athlete," as if they can identify who that is. At least take need, which you can easily identify, and maximize your chance for a decent day.

I identified 25 of the 32 players who actually were picked in the first round. I put six guys on the right team. And I had six guys in exactly the right draft spot. Pretty putrid, right? I thought so, too.

But then I checked on Mel Kiper's last mock. He had 26 of the 32 first-round picks, one more than me. He also beat me with guys on the right team, with seven (versus six for me). And we tied on picking players in exactly the right draft slot: six.

So, advantage Mel. By a single hair on that bouffant head. But, hey, Mel does this all year. I spent a few hours on it during a lazy afternoon.

Last-Minute Draft Notebook

2006-04-29T09:39:00.000-04:00

We're almost on the clock so it's time for some last minute thoughts on the latest draft news and buzz. This is the first draft I've missed in about 10 years because it's the first one that's fallen on my son's birthday since he was born six years ago. There's always Tivo.

I did a draft spot on ESPN radio last night and decided to forward some late rumor I heard about the Texans offering Mario Williams more guaranteed money than Reggie Bush. We'll forget that I also said it was still more likely than not that the Texans would draft Bush.

This led to a discussion on the sanity of passing on Bush, who I've said all along would be a bad No. 1 pick for anyone, but especially for the Texans. Clearly, when push came to shove, the Texans agreed that you can't put that kind of money down on a running back who is not even an every-down player.

There are some football people I respect who insist that Bush is the best player in this draft because of his game-changing ability. But most GMs and former GMs would have taken Mario Williams. In fact, Gil Brandt said it was the first year ever where the six he polls all tabbed the same player: Williams.

The biggest matchup problems Bush causes are as a receiver. This requires some really inventive play calling. And defenses in the NFL will adjust by blitzing the crap out of the QB, forcing the back to block. If you split him up wide to get out of this, you've taken a receiver out and now have Bush matched up against a corner, both of which whittle away at the advantage. If you have a really stout line and a blocking tight end, you could maybe get away with keeping Bush in the backfield, where he gets to work against linebackers and safeties. But this is the Texans we're talking about.

Now, the Saints are on the clock and they have to be bluffing about taking Bush, which would be a disaster for them. They gave about $15-$20 million of guaranteed money to Deuce McAllister just last year. They signed Michael Bennett last week. Now, they're going to give another $25 million in guaranteed money to Bush? No way. They made their bed with McAllister, who is coming off the ACL but still a major cap liability.

Should someone trade up? Why? You can't pay a running back that kind of money. He's the Saints problem now. Let's say, for argument's sake, that Bush becomes a Hall of Fame-caliber back. You'd just be getting what you paid for right out of the gate with him because he's going to always be the league's highest paid back. And he's always going to be one hit away from the cart (see: McAllister, Deuce); and once you cart off a running back, he's never the same.

Gary Myers in the Daily News here in New York cracks me up. First, the Jets were skewered for bypassing Leinart. Now, they're being skewered for bypassing Bush. Trading up is nuts. You're guaranteed to pay for a difference that is highly speculative. Economists Massey and Thaler demonstrated very clearly that the higher drafted player has a barely better than coin-flip (53 percent) chance of being better than the next player picked at that same position. And when you trade up, you are giving up those golden late first-round and early second-round picks (and sometimes thirds and fourths, too). So, you're paying for the certainty that you've identified a clearly superior player. And you're paying draft-pick compensation that also assumes this certainty. The game is rigged and plays into every general manager's overconfidence in himself and his scouts and information. It ignores the reality that much of the draft is pure guesswork.

So how can we assess a draft in the near-term? I'll grade the teams after the draft on how they've addressed the needs clearly identified in the Stat Power Index (see the link on the left). Of course, we look at the component stats, too. But the big picture is always those highly correlative net stats that we note each week in the SPI.

END OF POST

Weekly Fantasy Touts: May 1 - May 7

2006-04-29T09:37:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in
Ty Wigginton, 2B, Devil Rays: He's leading a charmed life with an unprecedented power explosion and a succession of injuries to teammates that have created everyday action first at third and now at second.

Corey Patterson, OF, Orioles: Things are breaking right for Patterson, too. First, literally, with David Newhan's leg. Now figuratively with rookie Nick Markakis' struggles. His other competition for OF at bats, Luis Matos, is on the DL with a bum shoulder.

Bench 'em

Jeremy Reed, OF, Mariners: Does nothing offensively and is now being platooned with Willie Bloomquist. Both should be benched in favor of Shin-
Soo Choo, who is tearing up AAA.

Francisco Cordero, P, Rangers: He's been replaced as closer for at least the short-term by Akinori Otsuka. But keep him reserved because his velocity has been good. Cordero has just run into some bad luck.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Orlando Hernandez, P, Diamondbacks: He has 35 Ks in 27 innings and gets two home starts this week (Dodgers and Reds).

Josh Barfield, 2B, Padres: The rookie is now batting second and flashing plus speed and average pop. Mixed-leaguers should take notice.

Bench 'em

John Patterson, P, Nationals: With only one scheduled start this week, his lingering forearm injury makes him too risky to keep active.

Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets: Another of the walking wounded. Beltran made it to the on-deck circle last week and may still get DL'ed pending a weekend evaluation. Either way, he's not likely to be running with the weak hammy.

END OF POST

Guest Column from The Big Dubb

2006-04-25T03:18:00.000-04:00

(EDITOR'S NOTE: Zach contacted me through Tout Wars and wanted a chance to opine about fantasy baseball in hopes of establishing himself as an expert. Zach has good pedigree as the son of a MLB scout and he's a New Yorker, so we gave him a shot. Here is the resulting debut.)

By Zach Wahl

Being the son of an ex-major league scout, my childhood was centered on baseball. Instead of going to the park to play on the swing set, I could usually be found hitting off a tee, or throwing to my father late into the night. Hell, my first words could easily have been sixty yard dash, or the 20/80 system. For example, I used to play short until my dad wanted to measure my arm speed by throwing off a mound, when suddenly I became a pitcher. Living with someone who has so much knowledge about the game has helped teach me how to differentiate between talented players and duds.

Most major league scouts rate players on a sliding overall scale 20-80, 80 being the best players in the game and 20 being the worst. Let's first look at the range of numbers starting with the lowest. Position players are rated on a variety of skills, the most fantasy-relevant being speed, hitting for average and hitting for power. Pitchers, on the other hand get rated 20-80 per pitch: fastball, curve change etc. Some scouts like to rate stamina and pick off moves as well. Typically, pitching is where the biggest mistakes are made. Most scouts love the hard-throwing star, while most of these kids fizzle out quickly. Everyone knows it’s not how hard you throw; it's about location, location, location.

As you're sitting back flicking through your MLB Extra innings package, watch to see how the pitchers hit the catcher's glove. If they're throwing 86, getting ahead of all the hitters and has good movement then you may want to investigate more. These are the diamonds in the rough, the player's people are forgetting. If a pitcher possesses this, then look at the swings the batter is taking. If Albert Pujols is getting his knees buckled by a filthy 12/6 duce, or A-Rod swings at a slider four feet off the plate, that's a pretty good indication that the pitchers got good stuff. You should then jump on your computer and check to see his previous performances, focusing on strikeout rates and hits and walks per inning.

What's the difference between Kenny Rogers and Freddy Garcia? Well Garcia, throws 8-10 mph harder and costs owners 8-10 dollars more on average. But if you watch the game closely, Garcia has a tendency to leave his pitches up in the strike zone and hang his off speed pitches. While Rogers hits all his spots, rarely leaves a fastball up, and doesn't hang anything. So why do scouts drool over Garcia but not bat an eye at Rogers. Well first off because Rogers is old, but more importantly because Garcia throws gas (or, at least, once did). Garcia last year was 14-8 with a 3.87 era, 1.25 whip, and an opponent batting average of .259. Not bad numbers. Now, Rogers was also 14-8 with a 3.46 era a 1.32 whip and an opponent average of .271. He also averaged a tad over four Ks every 9 innings compared to 5.8 per nine for Garcia. These numbers are almost identical. Most owners will overlook a pitcher like Rogers, maybe because of his hairy arms, or the fact that he had that run in with the camera man. We aren't looking to marry these players; we just use them to win our fantasy league. Now if you were to draft Rogers instead of Garcia, you can get basically the same numbers and you would have saved an extra 10 dollars. On average Manny Ramirez went for 36 dollars where as Sheffield went for 26. Now you have money for that stick you previously couldn't afford. I know for a fact that the difference in Manny's numbers compared with Sheff's will be more then 1.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

A main issue floating around fantasy leagues everywhere is whether Daniel Cabrera is a viable option. I have heard many people talk about how he should be dropped because of his high walks totals, which lead to high pitch counts early in games. Yes Cabrera has the same amount of walks and strike outs, but on the other hand he has more Ks than innings pitched, and has limited his walks in his last two starts. He has only walked 6 in his last twelve innings, so we can only assume Leo Mazzoni, is having some effect on the young righty. He has yet to give up a home run, and if you have seen him pitch you can see he has nasty stuff. Hang on to Cabrera, its not likely you can pick up anyone with as much upside, and if he is able to lower his walk total, he can pay of big dividends. It's still early and if you saw him during the WBC, you know how devastating he can be.

Judging hitting talent is based more on numbers, because it's harder to judge a good swing than a good pitch. Avoid people who swing through a lot of pitches. When someone swings through a pitch that means they were either fooled or guessed wrong. It is not luck that Barry Bonds and Ichiro Suzuki swung through the least amount of pitches over the last few seasons. Another thing to look for in hitting is how a batter works a pitcher. A sign of a successful hitter is someone who makes a pitcher throw 8-10 pitches in an at bat. If a hitter can foul off or take the "pitcher's pitch," that means they are more likely to see a favorable pitch later in the at bat. Again, think of the best hitters in the game; and now think about how they make pitchers work and battle. Although lead-off hitters and your prototypical pesky hitters do this for a living, search for the slugger who does the same thing. Its one thing to foul off five pitches and hit a bloop single, but it's another to take the 12th pitch in an at bat 450 feet over the left center field wall.

There are many hitters out there who are incredibly undervalued. For example, Chad Tracy provided an owner with something everyone loves: options. He is eligible at third and first plus the outfield. He is a complete hitter in all aspects of the game. His 27 homeruns were tied for 7th for all 1st and 3rd baseman. He had the fourth best average out of all first baseman, and the third best average out of all third baseman. When you watch him play, he always swings the bat well and usually doesn't miss many pitches. He had 78 strike outs, which is only 13 more then King Albert. He compiled his stats in only 500 at bats, so for all the projectors out there, that's over 30 homeruns in a full season. In many auction leagues he had an average of 10 dollars while his peers Beltre went for 12, Sexson for 16, Mora for 18, and Helton for 26.

Zach, The Big Dubb, was born in NY and is going to school at the University of Georgia, where he regularly thumps all fantasy comers.

END OF POST

Weekly Fantasy Touts: April 24-May 1

2006-04-21T12:03:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in
Alexis Rios, OF, Blue Jays: Manager John Gibbons took the first step last week in abandoning the platoon with Eric Hinkse. That's what five bombs and 14 ribbies in your first 40 at bats will do.

Kenny Rogers, P, Tigers: He gets no respect in mixed leagues, but Rogers is a professional pitcher in a favorable home park who you can spot during weeks like this when he gets two starts (at Angels, Twins).

Bench 'em

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners: We advocated Dan Johnson during his historic slump, so why not Beltre? Adrian has a bigger body of work that makes him more clearly appear to be a one-year wonder. His five steals are a fluke and he got his first extra-base hit only last week.

Scott Kazmir, P, Devil Rays: Kazmir isn't yet among the handful of starters you roll out there when his one start in the week is at the Yankees. He has pitched well against them, but better safe than sorry.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Aaron Harang, P, Reds: He hasn't paid dividends yet, but the K/BB ratio remains solid, so we're still bullish. Gets two starts this week (at Nationals and Astros).

Todd Walker, 2B, Cubs: Will play first base, too, with Derrek Lee out eight weeks. Walker's bat made him deserving of full-time at bats even before Lee's injury.

Bench 'em

Odalis Perez, P, Dodgers: He' allowed just one homer in his first 15 innings. But the lefty gets one start this week in the most homer-friendly park in baseball for righties: Houston's Minute Maid.

Mike Piazza, C, Padres: It's sad how Piazza's skills have declined. But a late-career hitting surge at catcher is usually limited to guys who didn't toil much in their prime. The Padres are home all week, too, in cavernous Petco.

Hating Bonds

2006-04-16T10:01:00.000-04:00

In the Breakfast Table, where Scott Pianowski and I discussed the Bonds situation in some detail, Scott said something that I kind of glossed over because it's almost universal at this point, even among the handful of Bonds defenders. The "churlish, egomaniac" ... "can't go away" fast enough for him. In other places, I've read how people "hate Bonds with the intensity of a thousand suns."

Obviously, Bonds isn't a likeable guy. But, when you step back, it's surprising that we all have a tendency to care. I'll briefly discuss why I think that is. The objective isn't to change anyone's feelings, just to put them in a psychological context: we hate because he shatters our child-like notion that great artists have to be great people, too.

I think that all sports fans accept the fact that elite athletes are artists in every sense of the word. Bonds' brush is his bat and his canvas the baseball diamond.

In the human brain, the circuitry for morality is cross-wired with the circuitry for status. So our default position is that people who have achieved a high level of artistry are also "good people." Mostly, top athletes benefit from this evolutionary blindspot with commercial endorsements and status that transcends their sport to a degree often much greater than specific athletic accomplishments.

Now, it should go without saying that a person's artistic prodigy has nothing whatsoever to do with their morality. In other words, you can be a great artist and a terrible person. But when artists are rightly or wrongly revealed to be bad people there is, I think, a natural human instinct to respond angrily for reasons that have more to do with us than them or their specifc acts.

This has been going on with Bonds ever since he was generally labelled by the press as a "bad guy." Since 1999, steroids were trumped up as a reason to devalue the objective reality of his greatness despite a paucity (some would even say "nonexistence") of evidence on the relationship between steriods and baseball performance. Now that his accomplishments have been marginalized by most through these allegations, the federal government is taking the next logical next step in seeking to criminalize this behavior through a rarely used perjury prosecution.

Athletes wouldn't get their many millions if we didn't instinctively heroize them. So, don't feel too sorry for Bonds. But that doesn't legitimize the hostility we express when our assumptions are revealed to be false. Children commonly experience shock, disappointment and great anger when they first realize their parents aren't the superheros they want them to be. But adults are less sympathetic in failing to learn from this mistake and repeating the process when illusions about athletic superstars are similarly revealed.

END OF POST

Weekly Fantasy Touts: April 17-23

2006-04-14T10:47:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in
Dan Johnson, 1B, A's: Yes, he's in a miserable slump. But the law of averages says that he'll bust out soon. There's nothing fundamentally wrong with his approach thus far that some better luck on balls in play (or a couple of homers) won't cure.

Nate Robertson, P, Tigers: He's added a change this year and the strikeout totals have picked up to 2004 levels. This week, he gets two starts (Indians, Mariners).

Bench 'em

Brad Wilkerson (OF/1B, Rangers): Moved down to the bottom of the lineup. His homer total last year would have increased from 11 to only 14 had he played in Arlington.

Ted Lilly (SP, Blue Jays): Coming off a great start against the Red Sox, but do you want to double down against the Yankees in his one start this week? Lilly's not consistent enough to warrant such confidence.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Miguel Batista, P, Diamondbacks: An unexpected source of strikeouts thus far in 2006, Batista gets two starts this week (Dodgers and Giants).

Brad Hawpe, OF, Rockies: Is his early season homer tear for real? He's 27, plays in Colorado, and slugged 28 homers in 342 at bats in AAA in 2005. So, it probably pays to ignore his career .402 slugging percentage in the majors heading into '06.

Bench 'em

Tim Hudson, P, Braves: He has mediocre stuff and gets just one start this week at Shea against the Mets, who have as fearsome a middle of the lineup as any team in the NL.

Billy Hall, SS, Brewers: Hall has position eligibility all over and manager Ned Yost still says he's determined to get him at least 400 at bats in a super utility role. But he has to be benched in mixed leagues until an injury or slumping starter opens up a full-time spot.

Weekly Fantasy Touts: April 10-16

2006-04-14T10:46:00.000-04:00

By Michael Salfino

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in
Jon Papelbon, P, Red Sox: The young fireballer was annointed closer-of-the-moment by Terry Francona, who said he's as dominating as any AL hurler right now. That doesn't sound like we should be expecting Keith Foulke to return to ninth-inning duties any time soon.

Estaban Loaiza, P, A's: You can't put him in yet because, as the A's fifth starter, he won't start until mid-April. But once the season gets rolling, being a fifth starter doesn't really matter. Pencil him in for 14 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA. So "put him on" your reserve roster.

Bench 'em

Rocco Baldelli, OF, Devil Rays: It's unclear if he'll be active this week and, even if he is, let him prove he's over his assorted woes after missing all of 2005 with injury. If healthy, he's a decent No. 4 outfielder in mixed leagues.

Corey Patterson, OF, Orioles: The former fantasy stud is getting squeezed out of at bats by rookie Nick Markakis, who manager Sam Parlazzo says will be an everyday player. that leaves Patterson and Luis Matos on the outs with ancient Jeff Conine promised full-time at bats, too.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Danys Baez, P, Dodgers: More elbow surgery for Eric Gagne. So Baez gets ninth-inning duty for the foreseeable future. He's nothing special, but, with saves, it's always more about opportunity than ability.

Preston Wilson, OF, Astros: He's moved to the league's best home run park for right-handed hitters. He'll be this year's Jermaine Dye, but better. Give him 35 bombs in '06.

Bench 'em

Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers: Is the 21-year-old ready for big-league pitching? Heading into the weekend, he had 24 Ks and 3 BBs in his first 71 official at bats. In '06, he struck out in seven of his first nine plate appearances. Mixed leaguers should bench Fielder until he proves he belongs.

Aaron Heilman, P, Mets: He deserves to be in the Mets rotation, but has been bumped to middle relief out of necessity. He's not happy about it and that may negatively impact his performance. Even if it doesn't, he not going to do enough to start in mixed leagues.

Tout Wars Recap

2006-04-04T10:48:00.000-04:00

Before I give you my Mixed League Tout Wars team and bid prices, a little about my strategy (which I sent to league-mate David Gonos for his Sportsline.com article).

Here's what I said, unedited (Dave, buddy, I thought you would clean this up!):

"The strategy is always the same: get projected hitting stats for a modest discount and stay disciplined enough to grab the pitchers where your opinion is at greatest variance with the room. I wanted Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer because replacement value is so high in a mixed league that you can afford to overpay. But both went to Leshen, who was willing to overpay more. High replacement value is the reason why saves are more valuable in a mixed league; so, I invested to win the category, which is always a bad play in an "only" league. Hitters coming off injury-plagued seasons have all their risk fully discounted. But all players are injury risks. Plus losing a Bonds for half a year isn't a big deal in a mixed league because you can so easily replace him with a solid reserve or free agent. The combined stats in this case are far more valuable than the auction price; and that's a worst-case scenario. Punch and judy speed guys are grossly overvalued in every league but especially in a mixed league, where you need to average such a high amount of homers and ribbies from each roster spot. The steal and runs gains from these guys are largely offset by the holes they dig for you in the power cats."

Here's the plan in action, following is some post-purchase anxiety/analysis:

C-Johjima-$12
C-Lieberthal-$1
1B-Delgado-$23
2B-Soriano-$30
3B-C. Jones-$19
SS-Lugo-$17
MI-B. Hall-$1
CI-Rolen-$17
OF-Bonds-$18
OF-Drew-$9
OF-Tracy-$8
OF-J. Jones-$7
OF-Baldelli-$4
UT-Cameron-$1

P-Peavy-$25
P-Harden-$15
P-Willis-$12
P-Loaiza-$1
P-Glavine-$1
P-C. Cordero-$14
P-Izzy-$14
P-F. Cordero-$10
P-McDougal-$1

Reserves: J. Encarnacion, T. Nixon, J. Michaels, B.J. Upton, R. Soriano, Lawton (Lawton? Well, Reed had just broken his wrist, reportedly, but not in fact and could have been out for months. Still, a bad pick. As for R. Soriano, obviously, I don't think anyone should be going long on Guardado.) Reserve note: Burgos went before my first reserve pick and, a few days after the auction, word came out that McDougal was going to be out a couple of months.

Now, for the main course. Alfonso Soriano has a lot of stink on him and that's not a stinky price. But there is scarcity at 2B and the only way I can compete in steals is getting combo guys. I think Soriano will steal north of 40 this year because they have to throw him a bone for the OF stuff. Remember, Frank Robinson let Vladdy get 60 attempts one year and Vlad was never close to the thief that Soriano is.

I've explained the injury strategy. Does getting hurt one year mean a guy is more risky to get hurt again the next? That's unanswered as far as I know, but I strongly suspect it's "no."

I'm all obliqued out already. I need a middle infielder even with a healthy Lugo. I took Billy Hall because he could go mid-teens in homers and steals if they come to their senses and jettison Corey Koskie, who is useless. I should have taken Carlos Guillen in the supplemental. My backup plan is Josh Barfield, who intrigues me. What to bid? Money is overrated in these kinds of leagues, so it will be generous.

I like my staff a lot. I think Loaiza will be a top-30 starter. That's a bargain price. His road ERA was a fluke in '05. The walks and Ks and homers were fine away last year and he's on the right team now and in the right park. Harden was a steal; he's better in this format than Halliday, but I'm in the minority there. Halliday has no big strikeout upside and Ks rule in 5X5.

Peavy is on-par with Santana when league and park factors are taken into account. At the very least, there's not $13 difference. Dontrelle Willis will be toiling in the Bronx or other park of a pennant-contending team by August, I'll bet. Even if that's wrong, he's worth well north of $12 when Javier Vazquez goes for $11 (13 starters went for more than $12, so you can see where the value was and that's always where you have to be).

In deep leagues like this, closers are more important, I think. Why aren't steals more important, then? Aren't closers taking up spots for wins and strikeouts like punch-and-judy speed guys are for homers and ribbies? Good questions. I'm going to think about that one for a couple days and get back to you. For now, I'm thinking that the homer and ribbie marks are harder to get to with SB-only guys than the K and win totals are with six starters. Of course, I have five. But they're all pretty solid bets relative to cost. I'll have to find an arm or two on the waiver wire, which you wouldn't think would be too difficult but WAY more pitchers went in the reserve draft than I figured. Kenny Rogers might be my best available waiver guy (ouch; and I like Rogers as a guy who can earn $10-to-$15 in an "only" league).

END OF POST

Open Letter to Mike Lupica

2006-03-31T16:03:00.000-05:00

From: Michael Salfino
Date: March 31, 2006 10:37:10 AM EST
To: mike@lupica.com
Subject: Deep Breath on Steriods, Please

You seem unhinged with the steroids stuff.

For an athlete, the body is just another piece of equipment. Better bats and balls and gloves. Why not better bodies?

Don't you find it silly to be shouting from the mountain tops about this in a world where "performance enhancers" reign supreme: viagra, botox, boob jobs, ritalin (taken by moms to lose weight and dads to focus better at work), hair transplants, etc....

Regardless of what we might say, we'd all take a drug that would make us stronger, look younger and lead to more fame and fortune. And we'd do it even if there was a good chance we'd die early as a result. (Hell, people smoke despite proven health consequences just for pleasure.)

The hostility for Bonds is predictable and common for everyone who has ever laid reasonable claim for being the greatest at anything. Long ago, Tyler Cowen said, "Competition of praise inclineth to a reverence of antiquity. For men contend with the living and not the dead." This is a more subtle variation of that. But it's so transparently, hypocritically hostile that these real reasons are clearly revealed.

END OF POST

Why the NFL can't draft QBs

2006-03-23T11:53:00.000-05:00

We'll soon find out which NFL team anoints Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler or Vince Young the collegiate quarterback "most likely to succeed." The title is nominal, but not the $25 million or so in guaranteed money that accompanies it.

The draftee deserves to smile when he takes the stage and dons his new team's cap. He's made it through a gauntlet of physical and mental tests. Unfortunately for the NFL, these tests just don't appear to measure what it really takes to be being a top NFL QB. So instead of returning the smile of his "QB of the future," general managers are appropriately served by a massive attack of post-purchase anxiety.

The 14 QBs drafted in the first round between 1999 and 2003 collectively would have ranked 20th in QB last year based only on '05 stats. Half have never finished top 10 in any major category (even quantitative ones like attempts). Three are already out of the league, another just released and one more was benched in '05. Meanwhile Tom Brady, a former 2000 sixth-round pick, is viewed by many as the game's premier player for his ability to play his best when the stakes are highest.

NFL talent evaluators and sports and neuropsychologists agree that success is ultimately be determined by what's inside each QB's head. Who is best wired to respond to the enormous pressure of being an NFL quarterback during the most critical moments of competition?

"We all want to find that magic bullet," says an AFC personnel director, all but admitting the futility of current approaches such as a wide range psychological tests and the famous Wonderlic intelligence test that has been religiously relied on by teams since Paul Brown introduced it to the NFL in the mid 1960s.

The Wonderlic was in the headlines recently when Young was rumored to have gotten only six of the 50 questions right in the allotted time. Upon further review (and, many suspect, a second chance), he scored a 16. There's a strong possibility this type of performance will sink his draft stock. But should it?

"What is intelligence?" asks Dr. John Rodenbough, founder of NeuropsychWorks. "It's our ability to respond to our environment." So while the Wonderlic is great for determining how quickly a QB can calculate the amount of rope he can buy with so much money at a given price, it sheds little insight into how quickly he can pick up a blitz or how he'll respond once he does.

When one looks at the leaked Wonderlic scores of veteran QBs, there seems to be little correlation to performance. Why may be answered by recent research demonstrating that, the smarter we are, the more likely we are to choke under pressure.

"When a critical moment arrives, thinking can be counter-productive," says Dr. Sian Beilock of the University of Chicago, who led a study into the issue. Beilock says that quarterbacks who excel at holding a lot of information "online" are likely to lose this edge when feeling pressure common to a game's decisive moments. Interestingly, her research suggests that QBs with average intelligence wouldn't experience any significant declines during similar stress.

Designers of psychological tests used by the NFL are always striving to stay ahead of savvy agents and players who might cheat them with prepared or insincere answers. But renowned skeptic and psychologist Michael Shermer says that these types of tests don’t correlate well to performance in fields where relevant databases are exponentially larger than current and former NFL QBs.

Many still claim success. Dr. Bob Troutwine has consulted with many recent Super Bowl teams and currently works with six clubs (Patriots, Colts, Panthers, Eagles, Rams, Jets). "My tests are used to advise clients which players will exceed their talent level and vice versa. For example, can a QB put a mistake behind him, whether it's his or someone else's, and move on to the next play?"

Some outsiders are unimpressed with the NFL's current approach.

"(It's) a farce based to a large degree on inappropriate tests and interpretations that have little if any predictive validity in terms of critical-moment performance," says Dr. Roland Carlstedt, chairman of the American Board of Sports Psychology.

During, say, a two-minute drill to potentially win a game, Carlstedt maintains psychological factors have a 70 percent impact on performance as opposed to just 10 percent during non-critical moments. Former Dolphins GM and current ESPN analyst Rick Spielman says that he's done research into quarterback performance during pressure and non-pressure situations that supports Carlstedt's claims.

"This is the major reason why players fail," Spielman says, "not due to physical traits."

Adds Carlstedt, "Brain processes central to (success), namely focus, intensity and cognitive processing (thinking/planning) ... can be discerned on the basis of lab-based and on-the-field tests."

Carlstedt is not alone in claiming products or methods that can quantify performance intangibles.

Dr. Jon Cowan, CEO of Peak Achievement Training, has portable technology that can measure a QB's ability to sustain alertness and focus in the way tha's commonly referred to by athletes as "the zone." It costs about $5,000.

Rodenbough has designed a computer-based test that can be used to objectively assess the ability to shift attention and maintain concentration. The head spins when he notes the many factors in constant competition for a QB's attention: fear of injury and losing, visual and vocal distractions from the opponent and crowd, the play call, snap count and anticipation of where to move the ball relative to an ever-shifting defensive landscape.

Rodenbough says he chuckled when seeing a quote from the late GM George Young about not drafting players either too dumb or too smart. "I'd revise Mr. Young's quote to say, 'We don't want to draft players who can't pay attention efficiently and we sure don't want to draft them if they pay too much attention to the wrong things.'"

NFL decision makers are interested in different approaches, but skeptical.

"Of course, we all want a better mousetrap. But, ultimately, we're humans grading humans," says the AFC scouting director.

Adds Spielman, "Resisting new technology is always a mistake. But there's subjectivity even here. What will the focus or attention score mean? Who interprets that? These all can be important complementary tools. But we're grading football players and that football grade must be kept separate."

END OF POST

QB Scouting Futurama?

2006-03-23T11:52:00.000-05:00

Leading scientists such as James Watson, who co-discovered DNA, are convinced that the 21st century will be to the mind what the last was to the atom. Advances in brain science are likely to come fast and furious. The implications will be profound, inside of sports and out.

Recently, doctors John Detre and Jiongjiong Wang of the University of Pennsylvania used a series of MRIs to take the first picture of stress in the brain. Detre cautions that, "It's a long way from seeing stress in the brain to knowing who is going to choke in the big game.” But he says the concept is "perfectly reasonable." Detre says a study that NFL GMs could believe in would require a data bank of all QBs, a couple of years of research and a few million dollars.

The difficulties in measuring the hormones that mediate athletic performance may soon be solved by a New Zealand company called HortResearch. The goal is to develop a skin-patch-like monitor that could be worn during competition. HortResearch's Beth Stark says that about $500,000 in development money would greatly speed the timetable.

END OF POST

My Ears Are Bleeding

2006-02-02T11:10:00.000-05:00

It's always a mistake to take sports radio too seriously. But listening to Colin Cowherd is painful today.

He's assessing the line on the game and talking nonsense in every direction. He says that the Steelers are so clearly better than the Seahawks that the line should be eight points. He saying that Vegas thinks Seattle is better because everyone always bets the favorite and the favorites always cover. So why not a bigger number on the Steelers?

Where to begin? First of all the Steelers are not clearly better than the Seahawks. I have a pretty extensive objective analysis of how teams rank in the statistics that most correlate to winning and Seattle scores better than Pittsburgh. You can quibble with quality of opposition. That's a reasonable argument that could play in Pittsburgh's favor. But it's far from conclusive proof of anything. And I'll concede that Pittsburgh is No. 1 in my two most important categories: YPA Net and net points per pass attempt. But Seattle is solid across the board and ranks higher in net red zone possessions, a late entry to the Index but one that correlates nearly as strongly as the two stats previously cited.

I will not deny that betting psychology favors Pittsburgh and that Vegas factored that into the line. There are many more Steelers fans than Seahawks fans because so many front-running 35-year-old guys across America were in their underoos when the Steelers were last winning Super Bowls. Plus, the Steelers are the "team of destiny," which fools always back mid-story and are most often wrong about. That's why the line is out of whack here (it should be, at worst, a pick 'em on the numbers).

Secondly, not everyone bets the favorites just because they've covered 31 of 39 times. Lines stabalize when there is equal money on both teams. If there's not, the line keeps moving until the action evens out. Some argue that this might be the case in Vegas, but not necessarily on the street. That's true, of course, but, statistically, there is a very small chance that the betting tendencies in any community outside of the home cities varies significantly from what's going on in the legit gambling houses. In other words, if a four-point line evens out the action in Las Vegas, Nevada, it very, very likely does the same in Hoboken, NJ.

The game opened at 3.5. It's gone up to 4 in most places. That means that the line is pretty good. Again, most of the action will be placed in the coming days but statistically it's very unlikely to differ in ratios of Steelers and Seahawks money than what's been placed to date. And you don't need a math degree to be able to understand that, just an informal education on bookmaking and gambling from the streets (I got mine on the School of Union Avenue at the University of Paterson, NJ). Lesson one: bookies and casinos don't make their money by gambling. They want the tidy 10 percent on every bet, which they only get if the scales are in balance.

What's going on here is the thing that always happens in gambling. Everyone is a winner. All those people who bet on all those Super Bowls bet the favorites because the favorites won. And everyone who goes to Vegas or Atlantic City always wins a little. We're all so smart. Yet those casinos are so big.

Sloppy Analysis

2006-02-02T09:22:00.000-05:00

It happens to all of us, but I'm less tolerant of analytical oversights when they are committed by major media outlets.

I'm getting ready to write my previews and I go over to the SI site to see if Dr. Z has filed yet. No dice. But I notice an article on how Super Bowl running backs have been a bust. The writer (Reuben Frank) notes that no running back has had a carry over 27 yards in a Super Bowl in 13 years. And then we're informed that no back has had a carry over 30 yards since Thurman Thomas against the Giants in 1991 (31 yards). It doesn't take very long to go through the memory banks of Super Bowl games and come up with a challenge. There was that great TD run by DeShaun Foster against New England a couple of years ago. I assume that was under 27 yards because there's no way the writers AND the editors would miss something so obvious. Remember, they're not even talking TD runs here; but all runs. It's much harder to overlook a scoring run. Nonetheless, I could swear that was over 30 yards. I look it up and sure enough it was 33. Now why should I bother reading anything else that guy writes?

Setting aside the mistake, I don't understand what Frank is so amazed about by the lack of long runs in Super Bowls. Runs of over 27 yards are relatively rare and the years we're talking about consist of one game. Edgerrin James went almost two years (~30 games) without a run over 20 yards and that was against everyone; these backs are usually going up against top defenses.

I will be curious to see if there's a prop bet for a run over X-number of yards for either back. If there is, it might pay to take the odds on a long run because this streak, even if it were true, is really not that impressive.

Undeservingly Unemployed

2006-01-19T11:36:00.000-05:00

While Scott Pianowski and I have trashed Mike Martz periodically in the Breakfast Table, we've both acknowledged he's a brilliant offensive mind. Not only is he not getting head coaching interviews, but he's been frozen out of even the multitude of offensive coordinator jobs that have opened up. Perhaps the rumors that he'll land in Miami are true. In that case, kudos to Nick Saban.

The glass is more than half full with Martz, even as a head coach. His teams have been successful. He's had league-leading offenses as a coordinator and head coach. He's developed three QBs (if you include Trent Green) that no one thought anything of prior to him getting his hands on them. What's more valuable in an NFL coach than the ability to turn lowly regarded prospects into bona fide franchise QBs (heck, even an MVP winner in Warner)?

And what about how Martz lost his job? There were no rumors that he was about to be fired or even on the hot seat. He gets the heart infection and gets sidelined for three months and then he's canned? That's cold.

And having Martz around is fun. He screws up the protection and timeouts and the challenges, but he thinks outside of the box in good ways, too. A head coach could reign him in where necessary, keep the QB upright more than occassionally and limit the injury risk and watch the yards and points pile up on the scoreboard.

Martz should have landed in Houston, which is about to commit $30 million of guaranteed money to Reggie Bush. Do you know who Pete Carroll and Norm Chow called when they wanted to figure out how to deploy Reggie Bush? That's right, Mike Martz. So they put Bush on the Marshall (Faulk) Plan. Houston was foolish not to do the same thing, assuming the Bush rumors are correct.

END OF POST

The NFL's Polamalu Apology

2006-01-19T10:11:00.000-05:00

When I was a kid, the wiseguys in Paterson used to say, "Always be generous when it doesn't cost you anything." I thought about that when the NFL threw Pete Morelli under the bus for his overturn of the Polamalu interception in the Colts-Steelers game. Pittsburgh won the game, so saying Steel City suffered from a bad call didn't cost the NFL a damn thing. If the Cots had won, the NFL would have twisted itself up in knots justifying the call, like they did the Tuck Play.

If the NFL wants to stop this nonsense they have to quit writing incoherent rules. When the Redskins beat the Bucs just a week before, Edell Shepherd was ruled to not have caught a pass despite securing the ball, getting his foot down in the endzone after being contacted by a defender and then losing the ball after he hit the ground. After the game was over, NFL Head of Officials Mike Pereira told Bucs officials that no rule was on the books that corresponded to the refs lengthy interpretation. But there was no further comment on that from the NFL and Pereira defended the ruling as absolute rather than interpretive on his weekly appearance on the NFL Network.

After the Polamalu overturn, Pereira was incoherent in trying to explain why the Shepherd catch was no catch but the Polamalu incompletion (as ruled) was actually a pick. Here's what he said: "The definition of a catch -- or in this case an interception -- states that in the process of making a catch a player must maintain possession of the ball after he contacts the ground."

The ref clearly followed the Shepherd play and rationalized that Polamalu was falling to the ground and lost the ball while still on the ground. If that's the rule for Shepherd than it must be the same for Polamalu, right? But no, "after hitting the ground" apparently means "the instant he hits the ground" (although Shepherd already had a foot and knee on the ground, but never mind). What if you make a catch and slide five yards on a wet field and then drop the ball? Catch? Incomplete? How long is "after"?

Pereira continued: "The initial call on the field was that Troy Polamalu intercepted the pass because he maintained possession of the ball after hitting the ground. The replay showed that Polamalu had rolled over and was rising to his feet when the ball came loose."

While he may have been rising to his feet, he was still, technically, down.

Here's a suggestion: A catch occurs when a WR has possession of the ball as he hits the ground. Pretty simple, right?

Again, all this crap started with the Tuck Play. Everyone who watched foot knows that's a fumble, but the NFL could never tarnish a playoff win (and, ultimately, a Super Bowl Championship). Pereira says Morelli should have used "common sense." But the NFL threw common sense out of the rule book with the Tuck Play. Remember, Brady had BOTH HANDS ON THE BALL when Woodson knocked the ball loose. Yet the NFL agreed with the ref that Brady was legally in the act of passing prior to contact. As Gruden's dad said at the time: "I've never seen a QB throw a pass with two hands."

END OF POST

After Further Review

2006-01-16T10:02:00.000-05:00

I've decided to hold off on other Week 19 observations until the Breakfast Table. Got to keep that as fresh as possible.

Steelers vs. Colts

2006-01-15T16:27:00.000-05:00

More on the game later after I fully digest it. But I can't believe that Roethlisberger made that tackle. I can't believe that Harper basically ran right into him. I don't care how deeply his wife dug in the shiv last night, his knee had to be sound enough for him to outrace Roethlisberger down the sideline. Remember, there were no receivers on the field to chase him down. If he goes right there, no one catches him.

As for the instant replay reversal of the Polamalu interception, it was the right call. Maybe it's a bad rule, but the refs had no choice. It's like the tuck play a few years ago in the snow with Brady. Remember, this came into play last week in the Washington-Tampa Bay game to negate what would have been a game-tying TD catch in the final minutes. To understand it, I'll simplify as best I can. When you catch the ball on your way to the ground, you have to maintain possession the entire time you are on the ground. There's nothing about rolling around once or twice or 30 times even. Polamalu clearly knocked the ball out of his hands with one knee while the other knee was still on the ground after his catch. So, by rule, it must be ruled an incompletion. I understand fans not knowing it and even the announcers. But when you go back to the studio 40 minutes later and no one has bothered to investitgate and still classifies it as a bad call, it bothers me.

Marvin Lewis Responds

2006-01-15T09:00:00.000-05:00

Here's what Lewis said about the alleged altercation with Johnson today in the Cincy papers. Also, the altercation was rumored to be with the team's WR coach, not Lewis:

"Chad's a very integral part of what we do," Lewis said. "There was no physical altercation. Chad was upset. He wanted to help us win the football game. He was frustrated. It happens all the time.

"When you lose a good player (such as Palmer), we needed people to step up and make plays. Chad wanted to do that. But Chad's not going to get in a fight with somebody. There are not two sets of rules. If Chad had hit somebody, he wouldn't have played in the second half."

END OF POST

Pats-Broncos

2006-01-14T23:35:00.000-05:00

You can definitely say the Patriots deserved a better fate on Saturday night, as they outplayed Denver through the heart of the game. But New England was long overdue for having a game where things went bad: bad calls, bad turnovers, bad breaks on inconclusive replays, a missed field goal and even a little bad luck. This happens to every team. It happened to Montana and the Niners, who I saw lose 49-3 one playoff afternoon. It happened to that great Steelers team in Oakland one year when they got thumped by 20 points in the championship game.

Brady didn't play badly. He did force some throws and was off target on some others that were makeable. But he was under a lot of pressure all night with those aggressive Denver blitzes. The throw that Champ Bailey picked off was a terrible decision and that really was the game right there. New England was set to at least cut the deficit to one point, but Brady just didn't want to settle for another field goal and forced the issue.

Did Denver show enough to make anyone think they can go into Indy and beat the Colts? No. If they try that blitzing stuff against Manning, they're dead. And Jake Plummer was disappointing, quite frankly, and will have to play markedly better under much more difficult conditions on the road in a disruptively loud dome.

Before signing off until tomorrow, I have to note the story on the pre-game show where Boomer Esiason, who would know, said that the rumors that Chad Johsnon threw punches at Marvin Lewis at halftime last week in the loss to Pittsburgh are true. Wow. That's explosive stuff. If Boomer has good info (and why would he volunteer that on national TV if he didn't), Johnson has to go because there's really no turning back from that.

END OF POST

Redskins-Seahawks

2006-01-14T19:46:00.000-05:00

First off, how on earth does Shannon Sharpe get a job as a studio host? The man can't speak English. The funny thing is, his brother Sterling is very articulate, though sometimes too in love with his own voice.

"I agree withchoo." "I agree withchoo." Stop. Please.

On to Seattle, where that was the biggest front-running crowd I've ever seen. Rev it up early. Then, sit on your hands when it's, gulp, 3-0 Washington. That's all it takes to get Seattle to stop making noise? Some 12th man you guys are.

Seattle gets the cover or the push, depending on when you bet. The line had moved to 10 in some place before kickoff. I don't really know if Washington was the right side, however. They had the edge in turnovers and knocked Alexander out (to the delight of everyone who saved him in universe leagues). Clinton Portis didn't look healthy and Brunell was unable to establish any offensive consistency. But neither, really, did Hasselbeck and the Seahawks. Seattle should be able to get by this sub-par offensive effort by rationlizing that they lost their main weapon. While I think Seattle would trounce the Bears, Carolina could give them major problems.

We'll be back with more during the Pats-Broncos game.

END OF POST

Why Players Sometimes Lose It

2006-01-12T12:18:00.000-05:00

Getting ready to write the previews. David Ferris will join us again, on Redskins at Seahawks.

Scott Pianowski did a nice job spreading the blame away from Kitna for Sunday's loss by Cincy. Of course, he's correct in noting those other breakdowns. But I'm not buying into Kitna's first-half stats, especially that QB rating (a very flawed stat, as Scott would agree). Bottom line on Kitna's first half: 5.5 yards per attempt. That's far below the acceptable threshold.

But I have to acknowledge that Scott was right in saying that Taylor must have spit. The question now becomes, why?

I have to thank Pianow for this insight, courtesy of his very generous Christimas gift to me, "Blink," by Malcom Gladwell. Near the end of the book, Gladwell writes about the Amadou Diallo shooting. How could the cops have shown such poor judgment by blasting a man 41 times for merely reaching for his wallet in a dark alley? Recognizing this is a very politcally charged way to get into something as inconsequential as a player expectorating, I'll nonethesless soldier on....

There's a point where arousal improves performance: the range when our heart beats between 115 and 145 times per minute. That's about 60-75% of the maximum heart rate for people the age of the average athlete. This type of arousal is typically a good thing for an athlete because it narrows the senses and allows him to focus on the threat in front of him (a onrushing lineman trying to block you, for example, or, if you're a QB, a blitzing linebacker). When aroused to this degree, we lose our ability to hear (that's why so many athletes talk about blocking out all crowd noise when they're "in the zone"; it's not discipline that does it but the natural biological consequence of this optimum level of arousal). In place of nonessential sensory loss such as hearing, athletes gain extreme visual clarity and, as they often note, the feeling that time is slowing down just for them.

However, when their heart goes beyond 145 beats per minute, the body and the senses start to break down completely. They lose complex motor skills. As they approach 175 BPM, cognitive processing is lost. The mammalian mid-brain "hijacks" the human forebrain. So trying to rationalize with an angry athlete at this state of arousal is, according to one expert, like trying to argue with your dog. They lose vision and judgment and become hyper-aggressive.

Research such as this has led many police departments to ban high-speed chases. Most of the major riots have happened as a result of what police officers do to suspects after chasing and catching them. With their hearts pumping like crazy, they lose all perspective and reason. A former LAPD officer referenced the old saying, "A dog in the hunt doesn't stop to scratch its fleas." Taylor, in that moment on Saturday at Raymond James Stadium, was over-aroused to such a degree that he became a dog in the hunt.

Defending Jon Kitna

2006-01-11T00:11:00.000-05:00

Yeah, I'm that Kitna apologist. Here's my take on the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game Sunday, and why it's not all No. 3's fault. - scott pianowski

Cincinnati didn't lose solely because Carson Palmer got hurt. Oh sure, their chances went down significantly when the injury occurred - Palmer is a superstar, Jon Kitna is a journeyman. But people want to post-script this game as a blowout decided by that play, and that's just not the truth. It annoys me how this game is being reported after the fact.

Kitna played pretty well in the first half (14-20-109, 99.8 rating), helping Cincinnati grab a 17-14 lead at halftime. The Bengals twice led by 10 points (10-0, 17-7). It looked like anyone's game.

Cincinnati started with the ball in the third quarter and moved right down the field, marching to the Pittsburgh 15 before the drive stalled. Here's where it gets fuzzy.

- A botched snap turned a chip-shot field goal into a non-attempt for the Bengals. The Steelers even gained 19 yards on the play. This all happened with five minutes gone by in the quarter.

- Pittsburgh put together a nine-play, 66-yard TD drive. Bettis scores with 5:17 to go in the quarter.

- Cincinnati had an ugly 3-and-out, with two sacks sandwiched around a short completion. Kitna looked bad here, I won't argue the point.

- Three plays into the next series, Pittsburgh struck with the wonderfully-timed gadget play, Randle El to Roethlisberger to Wilson. Perhaps time for it, flawless execution, and wham, bam, the Steelers lead by 11. The Bengals and their fans had already overcome one huge emotional blow (Palmer's injury), but they weren't getting off the mat again. Game Over.

Let's add it all up: over a span of 8:29, the Bengals had severe breakdowns in all three phases - offense, defense, special teams. Pittsburgh, to its credit, played very well in this segment. The Bengals should have been up six early in the quarter, and 8:29 later, they're down 11 and all but sunk. I can't blame Kitna for all this - it was truly a team collapse. And credit the Steelers, they made the plays.

Kitna never got the ship righted after that, and that didn't surprise me at all. He's a guy that needs to be surrounded by a running game and a balanced offense. He can't win a game on his own, especially against a defense that (a) can rush the passer like crazy, and (b) had no reason to respect the ground game anymore. The Steelers had their way with the Bengal offense the rest of the day, which was to be expected.

END POST
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The Lost Weekend

2006-01-08T19:47:00.000-05:00

What a stinker of a playoff weekend. And it really hurts when that happens because the sands are almost all they way through the hourglass on the season.

I was very hopeful that the Bengals-Steelers would salvage something. But that ended on the Bengals second play, when Carson Palmer tore his ACL and most likely his MCL and PCL and whatever other CLs are in there. At a minimum, that's a 10-month recovery, which keeps him out until mid-season 2006. What a disaster for Cincy, which again seems cursed. Wide receiver Chris Henry, who caught the 66-yarder from Palmer, also sustained a serious knee injury on the play.

Scott Pianowski felt that Jon Kitna would perform well. I've always been bearish on him. In fact, one of the reasons I left the USA Today Sports Weekly gig is because at the end of 2003, they changed my little blurb in the Tip Sheet where I said that Kitna turned into Kitna down the stretch of that season (shocker) and would be replaced by Palmer in 2004. I was told the beat guy for them said that would never happen given Kitna's overall numbers. Oops.

I never bought that Kitna, a veteran player, was transformed in anyway by that good stretch in 2003. He's a mistake-prone journeyman. And, unfortunately, he was a mistake waiting to happen yesterday, too. At least he won't be a Jet next year, as had been rumored.

So we lose Palmer in the playoffs (I still firmly believe that the Bengals would have won a high-scoring game with him at the controls). We lose the Patriots at the Colts (Denver and Shanahan match up too well against New England and Belichick, always have).And there's a good chance that the remaining three games in the AFC will all be blowouts. What's our hope in the NFC? Maybe Seattle gets tested by the Redskins (doubtful with Portis suffering from a bad shoulder). The Bears and Panthers should be a decent, albeit it low-scoring game. Root for the Panthers to beat the Bears because that's the one team that could really push Seattle.

More to come on the site this week, of course.

The Dead Zone

2006-01-08T15:47:00.000-05:00

Sometimes, it sucks being right. Now, not only did the first game blow, but there's 45 minutes to kill between games.

Let's see what's on these 700 channels....

"World's Strongest Man Competition" on ESPN Classic. Some steriod case walking around a circle moving moving a crate of boulders with some watch dial-like tripod contraption. Screw him. I'll kick his ass. The winner walked around for 84 meters by the way. Is this really classic programming? Was the 2001 competition one for the ages?

Giants press conference on the NFL Network. "We didn't play well," says Coughlin. Then, he spins the season as all warm and happy. Thanks for nothing, Tom, before, during and after the game.

"$100 K Chicken Challenge" on Food Network. They're announcing the winner. Some decent looking chick from Indiana with some kebob-like thing. "Mahogany Broiled Chicken with smokey lime sweet potatoes." I think it was the cleavage she showed while preparing the dish.

"100 Sexiest Celebrities" on E. Colin Ferrell. Punk.

"Megastructures" on National Geographic. World's largest plane, the Airbus. Didn't Howard Hughes do this 60 years ago or was Scorcese pulling our leg?

"Sex Change" on Discovery Health. That's what they should do with the losers of these playoff games, just so we're sure the players leave it all on the field.

"The Sphinx Unmasked," already saw it with my daughter.

"The 160 Pound Tumor" is something I could get into. But it's not the girl that was on My Yahoo! page for about three weeks over the holidays. This one, you can't even see. Sorry, I need the freak factor to stick with something like this. Okay, they just showed someone with a 200-pound tumor and it is freak city. So, we'll give this a couple of minutes.... OH ... MY ... GOD!! She looks totally normal from the chest up and then like something Stan Winston created from the waist down. That was worthwhile after all.

Animal Planet has those slobs that contest eat and call themselves athletes (except for the Asian people, who know that being fat stops the stomach from expanding enough). The Shrew is the No. 1 eater on the planet, by the way. It eats 24 hours a day because it's so small that it loses heat incredibly fast and most keep consuming calories around the clock.

"Mars Rocks" about the Mars Rover mission. Saw it. Mars is one of the lesser interesting things about the universe. It would be like probing your next door neighbor just because he's next door. It is more interesting than the moon, which is only interesting in how it was formed (a massive meteor hit earth and sent a chunk of the planet into space; all part of God's intelligent design).

"The Fabulous Life Celebrity Wives." Nicholas Cage chartered a helicopter, whisked his latest bride away to the Grand Canyon and got her home before 11 p.m. (she was 19 with a curfew; she was also a sushi waitress). Before knowing this, I sort of liked Nicholas Cage.

"Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind." Liked it but had to defend it to the wife, who hates every movie told out of sequence.

"Envy." How could Jack Black and Ben Stiller go so wrong? (Actually, Ben Stiller makes one mediocre to bad movie after another.)

"Hellraiser: Bloodlines." The first one was okay, but the whole thing seemed very gay even before I knew Clive Barker was gay (not that there's anything wrong with that).

"Hamburger America." A documentary about variations of the classic sandwich. I could dig that. I love a great cheeseburger (I grind my meat myself so I can cook it medium rare without worrying about food poisoning). But it's over, so I'll have to Tivo it another time. And it's also 4:24. Not a bad way to kill some time.

Panthers vs. Giants

2006-01-08T14:26:00.000-05:00

It's halftime and we're going to see if my point about the repsective QBs in this game proves prescient. Again, I felt the Panthers would have two ways to win this game because Jake Delhomme is such a resilient player. If he had led an offense with three first downs at halftime and had a feeble 30 yards passing, I wouldn't count him out. He's proven he could bounce back from a poor half and catch fire under the most intense circumstances (the Super Bowl) and verus a superior defense and coaching staff (the 2003 New England Patriots). The Giants and Manning, however, needed to get off to a good start. Get something going before doubt set in. Maybe I'll be proven wrong. I hope so. Because the games thus far have been pretty dull, espeically from an offensive standpoint. But I believe Manning and the Giants are ready for the fork right now because their season is done.

Mike and Dave

2006-01-08T09:53:00.000-05:00

Here's an excerpt of a Saturday phone conversation between Mike and his cousin Dave Salfino (transcript courtesy of The Bush Administration):

Mike: So if I catch the Redskins, I'm done for the weekend. But if I lose, I'm looking at the Bengals tomorrow.

Dave: Why is that?

Mike: It's simple math. If you bet two games, what's the most likely thing to happen? 1-1. The least likely? 0-2 or 2-0. So, if you go 1-0, why go on in the face of that headwind? If you go 0-1, why not get the tailwind into probability with a second game?

Dave: 'It's simple math.' Is that what you tell Cath when you go 0-2? Here's some advice: try it on the credit card companies first.

Mike: It's not even gambling, really. It's all about probability.

Dave (singing): 'The Desert Inn has heart'... 'The Desert Inn has heart.' (Fans of Albert Brooks and 'Lost in America' need no explanation.)

Mike: Are you watching right now?

Dave: Yep.

Mike: This is the stupidest commercial ever. It's so stupid, I'm embarrassed for it. What were they thinking? 'We're going to have the Patriots draft, are you ready? Hold on to your ass otherwise you're going to laugh it right off, really. Okay. Ready? A Pepsi machine!! We're going to have the Pepsi machine wear a little jersey and practice at training camp and then catch a TD pass in its cute little soda mouth.' Hy-friggin-sterical.

Dave: That is stupid. But the worst commerical is the fat bastard singing the Dukes of Hazzard theme song along with his phone.

Mike: That song he sings is the Dukes of Hazzard theme song?

Dave: Well, I don't know if it is, but it should be. We do know it's his personal theme song. I'm like, 'Bro', you're fat and ugly. You don't have a theme song.'

More Wild Card Musings

2006-01-07T23:33:00.000-05:00

Pianow checking in with some New England-Jacksonville thoughts . . .

Mike was right. The Jags should have stuck with Garrard.

The Pats had reason to be concerned at halftime. But they totally dominated the third quarter, and showed their class in the process.

I can't watch a Jacksonville game without a slew of dropped passes.

Corey Dillon looked slow to me all night. Rosey Colvin is slowly getting back up to speed. I've never seen Richard Seymour play a poor game. For a so-called elite corner, Rashean Mathis sure gets beat a lot.

No one really talked much of this but I wonder if the Pats told Matt Cassel to throw the ball out of bounds on the game-ending 2-point try last week against Miami (the ball was air-mailed out of the corner of the end zone). I don't care what Pittsburgh does tomorrow, Jacksonville *was* the weakest draw in the AFC field.

Washington-Tampa Bay? The game was messy. The announcing was worse.

Keep reading below for Mike's extended take on Day 1 of the NFL Playoffs. - scott pianowski

END POST
And here is the rest of it.

Wild Card Musings

2006-01-07T17:16:00.000-05:00

Like Momento, we're working backwards here, so piece it all together as you go.

I like the story coming out of halftime of the Jags-Pats game where Del Rio accuses the Patriots of cutting out the communication system between the coaches and the QB on key downs. If it doesn't happen, it should. Well, I don't mean that it would be sportsmanlike, obviously, but if coaches are working 24-7 to satisfy their will to win, who doesn't think that they would resort to tinkering with the walkie talkies? If they had steriods for wins, how many NFL head coaches do you think would take them? I say about 32. Seriously, these guys don't talk to their wives and kids for nine months a year, you don't think their will to win would cause them to bend the rules? This is war, gentlemen.

I love the conspiracy stuff. A few years ago, the Giants were rumored to have intercepted the communication between Vikings coaches and Daunte Culpepper on their way to a completely unexpected 41-0 victory (the Vikings were favorites in that NFL championship game and had one of the highest scoring offenses ever). Going back, Al Davis was famous for sending spies to watch opponents practice and so badly got into the head of Jets coach Walt Michaels that Michaels went on a rant about it in front of the beat reporters that seemed right out of an Oliver Stone movie (well, at least it does in retrospect). Michaels also got the short end of the stick against the Dolphins in the 1982 AFC Championship game when Don Shula left the tarp off the field to slow down the Jets vastly superior team speed (Walker, McNeil, Lam Jones, Gastineau...). That caused Walt to go off on the deep end with the bottle and resulted in his sudden dismissal as Jets coach.

Redskins bettors: call it a weekend because you don't get luckier than that. Why push it?

That was the worst punt ever in a big situation. How do the Bucs come of that at midfield with over a minute left? Then, before I can finish typing, another pick by Simms off a deflection at the line. Game over.

That was a terrible job by Washington and Gibbs with 2:48 left and no timeouts for the Bucs. First and 10 at the 35 and you get a false start? Then first and 15 and you run Portis up the gut and the 40 second clock resets before 2:40 is left, so you have to run another play. Instead, you have to snap it to your running back in the shotgun (which the Redskins use) and let him run around for an extra couple of seconds before going down. Remember, they don't stop the clock after sacks anymore. That ended up giving the Bucs another 40 seconds of game clock.

Theismann says getting the delay of game isn't a big deal because they'll go for it on fourth down anyway? Stupid thing to say, even for him.

Yes, it was a great interception, but you cannot throw back across the middle of the field in that situation if you're Mark Brunell. Up a TD with three minutes and change left? Stay in bounds by sliding to keep the clock running and punt. No one cares that you did nothing all day if you win.

Very bush league play by Simms in taunting Carlos Rodgers when running out of bounds on a scramble. He followed that by missing a wide open Joey Galloway on the next play. His father was bush league, too. But the picture I have is him holding his head in horror whenever a receiver dropped a pass. I don't recall him taunting the opposition very often.

Mark Brunell and that Redskins offense look so bad today. Like I said in the preview, the Bucs defensive stat profile is good, not great. And that's against a pretty soft schedule (all those NFC South games and four more against the AFC East). Losing Clinton Portis to the stinger handicaps them, for sure. But Santana Moss should have been more involved.

I don't mind going for it on fourth down. Give Gregg William credit for blitzing; there was nothing there. I don't mind passing out of the goal-line formation. If you're going to run it down there, I like spreading out the defense with an empty backfield and doing the sneak. That's what the Pats call in those situations.

We need the Zapruder film to see if Sean Taylor spit, I guess. Because we can't see it on the replay. If it was a "say it don't spray it" spit, it doesn't count. To be jettisoned from a playoff game you need to toss a loogy in someone's face.

Chris Simms was praised for being 16-for-18 near the end of th first half. Great accuracy and play calling, we were told. Only all those completions went for 100 yards. Forget the poor 5.5 yards per attempt. Look at yards per completion. That's a joke even by today's dink and dunk standards.

The Bucs are down 14-0 and the Redskins have lost another CB (Walt Harris). There are eight men in the box on every conceivable run down to stop Cadillac Williams. But Theismann and the boys are saying the Bucs need to keep running. How about getting the ball to Joey Galloway? How many points down does Gruden need to be before he starts taking shots downfield on first down?

Do you realize how hard it is to figure out what to root for in a 32-team Playoff Fantasy Universe League? My strategy was to play all the guys I couldn't live without playing one time (taking the bird in the hand). So, Palmer and Chad Johnson had to be played. Ditto Roethlisberger and Ward. Yes, I think the Bengals are going to win, but Vegas must know something (although they were probably scared by the prospects of heavy Steelers action, which they obviously didn't get becaus the line didn't move since it opened). I also had to play Barber and Steve Smith. I thought Washington was going to win and Tampa's defense is tough, so I held off on Santana Moss and Portis. Hardly anyone played Roethlisberger and Willie Parker, but I think those guys are going to have big days and there's a good chance they won't survive until Week 19. 18 of 32 owners played Hines Ward this week.

END OF POST

Monday Night Memories

2005-12-23T15:03:00.000-05:00

As you probably have heard by now, Monday Night Football as we know it is ending this week - it's the final ABC game of the series, and ESPN is taking over next year. With that news, I felt it was a good time to reflect on some of my favorite MNF moments from the last four decades. I can't say I was early to this party - born in 1969, I'm just a shade older than the series itself - but I've caught the game just about every week over the last three decades, and with that I've got a lot of memories tucked into the back of my head.

In this entry I've compiled a list of games, in chronological order, that comprise my most memorable MNF experiences; in just about every case, I could tell you where I watched the game, who I watched it with, and several other inane details. This is not intended to be an ideal list for anyone else - it's my subjective grouping.

My rule when compiling the list was to go off memory first and foremost, using the internet solely to research the date, score, and details of the game, if needed. I'm probably leaving out a few classics, but so be it. When I opened my personal scrapbook from MNF, these 13 games are what fell out. (Sorry LT - I was not watching the night you did the deed. And for that, I'm grateful. I also missed the game on the fateful night John Lennon was shot.)

Without any further introduction, here is my Greatest Hits tape (click link below to continue). Enjoy! - scott pianowski

Rookie on a Rampage (November 1978: Oilers 35, Dolphins 30)
Earl Campbell runs for 199 yards in the Astrodome, including the game-clinching 81-yard jaunt at the end. I loved those Oiler teams. I'll immediately stop what I'm doing anytime Campbell highlights are on TV. This was the first NFL season that had my attention every Sunday, so in that respect it was a watershed year. And Campbell was definitely a watershed guy.

Dorsett Goes Deep (January 1983: Vikings 31, Cowboys 27)
I was almost 14 at the time and watching the game in a hotel room; my parents had taken the family on a ski trip, and we were in adjoining rooms for the night. As soon as my brothers and I saw the lights go out in my parent's room, we switched over to cable and looked to get lucky with the late cable movies. Ah, adolescence.

Undefeated No Longer (December 1985: Dolphins 38, Bears 24)
The Bears shuffled in with a 12-0 record and arguably the best defense of modern times, and they shuffled out with their head between their legs. Granted, they got over it quickly, allowing just 43 points in their final six wins en route to a convincing World Championship title. Who would have believed on this night that Dan Marino, just 24, would never see another Super Bowl.

Montana vs. Elway (October 1994: Chiefs 31, Broncos 28)
This one might be my favorite of them all, with three lead changes in the last five minutes, two scores inside of two minutes, and the fantastic Mile High backdrop to make it all look pretty. Elway and Montana, doing what they do best. It’s the final picture in the Montana scrapbook, too.

Green Bay Spooks Chicago (October 1994: Packers 33, Bears 6)
A Halloween Night in a monsoon, ugly throwback uniforms. Favre had a 36-yard TD run in the second quarter, splashing down near the pylon. It wasn't the most interesting game, perhaps, but it's stuck in my mind for a while.

The Game I Bailed On (October 2000: Jets 40, Dolphins 37, OT)
With Miami ahead 30-7, there was no reason to watch the endgame of this one. I bailed on it, then found out I missed history in the making (the amazing Jets comeback in the fourth quarter, capped in overtime). You win some, you lose some.

Dunn vs. Faulk (December 2000: Bucs 38, Rams 35)
For my money this was the game of the year for the 2000 season. Marshall Faulk was his usual unstoppable self (132 yards, four TDs), but Warrick Dunn matched him step for step (198 yards, three TDs). The 2000 Rams are one of the most intriguing "what if" teams in recent years; their offense over the opening two months was the best I’ve ever seen, but things came apart after Kurt Warner got hurt in Kansas City.

Precursor to Horror (September 2001: Broncos 31, Giants 20)
This game could go down as the night Ed McCaffrey (6-94, TD) broke his leg, but I'll always remember it as the precursor to the horror that hit less than half a day later: 9/11/01. Just thinking about all this spooks me a bit.

Signature Play (October 2002: 49ers 28, Seahawks 21)
It was the "Smells Like Teen Spirit" moment for NFL celebrations, so it's ironic that it took place in Seattle. The one-and-only Terrell Owens caught two TDs on this night, and after the second one, he promptly reached into his sock, produced a Sharpie marker, signed the football, and flipped it to his financial planner in the stands. The league had seen plenty of end-zone celebrations prior to this game, but the signature play seemed to raise it up a notch (even "The Simpsons" got into the act, doing a hilarious take-off on the celebration landscape). I'm no TO apologist, but I can't deny this game's place on my list.

Killing Me Softly With Field Goals (Sept. 2003: Cowboys 35, Giants 32, OT)
A strange game with a bunch of weird turns, bounces, and nuances - you'll need to catch it on ESPN Classic to fully appreciate it. Bill Parcells doesn't always like his field goal kickers, but he was thrilled to see Bill Cundiff make seven on this evening. This loss was a sign of things to come for the Giants, who handed away a bunch of winnable games back in 2003.

Peyton Stuns Tampa Bay (October 2003: Colts 38, Bucs 35)
With the Colts down 21 points with four minutes to go, at the Pirate Ship of all places, there was no reason to keep watching (a lot of viewers flipped over to the baseball playoffs). Then Manning went to work and stunned all of us. As it turned out, this was the passing of the torch type of game - Manning and the Colts taking a step up in class, while the defending champs were starting to show chinks in the armor. (Keep in mind Tampa Bay had christened Philly's new field with a visiting shutout just one month earlier, in a Monday game that might have made my cut if it were more competitive. Joe Jurevicius had two tremendous TD catches on that night).

Favre Honors His Father (December 2003: Packers 41, Raiders 7)
I still don't know how someone throws for 399 yards and four touchdowns less than 48 hours after their father drops dead of a heart attack, but Brett Favre at his best was something to see. Truth be told, the entire Packer team picked up Favre on this night, making some amazing downfield catches. If this game didn't give you some sort of goose bumps, get your heart checked.
Pats Steal the Opener (Sept. 2004, Opening Night; Patriots 27, Colts 24)
Technically not a Monday Game, but it was with the same crew, and it may have been the best game of 2004. Indy probably should have taken the Patriots down that night, but Edgerrin James fumbled twice at the goal line, and Mike Vanderjagt missed a game-tying field goal, ironically enough after he taunted the New England sideline with his "I'm money" gesture.

KC Media Blasts LJ Again

2005-12-18T08:26:00.000-05:00

Reporters almost always trumpet the company line. Don't believe me? Look at the incestuous White House Press Corps.

So, the continuous bashing of Larry Johnson in the Chiefs biggest hometown paper, The Kansas City Star, is notable. Last week, he was exclusively blamed for the loss in Dallas for missing a block on which Trent Green was stripped and fumbled and which the Cowboys later turned into points. That happened in the second quarter before L.J. rambled for three TDs.

This week, Johnson was mostly sidelined on obvious passing downs in favor of Tony Richardson, a better blocker. Here's what lead Johnson basher Jason Whitlock said in today's paper:

"It's not just Larry Johnson. The Chiefs -- as a group -- are soft."

Larry Johnson is soft? Better tell the defenses that he's bludgeoned for 1,100 rushing yards in seven starts, with 12 TDs.

But there's more:

"The only thing worse was the offensive strategy that relegated Johnson to sideline-watcher on obvious passing downs. 'Larry Lite' is the best description of KC’s offensive game plan. 'Larry Lite' tastes great and is a lot less filling."

He continues: "I don't blame Dick Vermeil and Al Saunders for the 'Larry Lite' offense. It seems quite obvious now that Johnson is refusing to block. After scoring just 10 points in the opening half running the 'Larry Lite' offense, Vermeil and Saunders stuck Johnson in the game on a couple of passing downs in the second half. Johnson's blocking effort was soft."

Still more: "It's impossible to properly explain just how limited Kansas City's offense is when its most-explosive player, its most-consistent scorer has to stand on the sideline on third and 4. Priest Holmes was brilliant at turning third and 6 into first and 10 by catching a screen pass, a swing pass or running a draw. Tony Richardson is a tremendous blocker. He did an awesome job of picking up free rushers. Richardson, however, did not pick up one first down on Saturday."

And, finally:

"Johnson's refusal to block handicaps Kansas City's offense. Pretty much, when he's on the field, the defense knows he's going to carry or catch the ball 90 percent of the time. The other 10 percent, the Chiefs will fake a handoff to Johnson and throw the football."

Where to begin? How about Holmes turning all of those third and sixes into first downs with screens and draws? This year for Holmes on thirds and between thee and seven: zero carries, one catch for two yards. 2004? Four carries for 13 yards, one catch for six and one lost fumble. 2003? Three carries for 13 and eight catches for 117 yards (we'll grant the receiving impact in 2003). 2002? Six carries for 11 yards and four catches for 36 yards (one a 22 yarder, so he basically made one play that season). You get the point. Not a big deal. More anecdotal bullshit for another reporter who can't take his fat fingers on a simple Google search before spewing drivel.

There's obviously a faction in the Chiefs' hierarchy that doesn't like Johnson. Benching him on third downs for one missed block was an overreaction by Vermeil, so he's the primary suspect. Of course, there was the famous outburst last year about how Johnson was still in diapers, which Vermeil eventually apologized for. This is very important for fantasy owners because, if Holmes decides to return, it's very likely the Chiefs would welcome him back as the unquestioned starter even though Johnson is running right now as well as any back ever has.

Even Joe Posnanski, one of the better and more enlightened columnists around, gets in on the act by saying straight out that Johnson "refuses to block." Again, he tried to block the Cowboys linebacker last week. He picked him up properly. But he tried to cut him and was jumped over. He was beat. Remember, blockers are often instructed to cut block in order to clear the passing lane for the QB. This is such a nit-picky criticism for a back that's looking like a modern Jim Brown with his speed, power and no-nonsense running style.

Speaking of Brown, here's what the Sporting News said about his blocking: "...that grunt work offended him."

Christmas Commercial From Capitalist Hell

2005-12-17T16:01:00.000-05:00

Hey, bi-atch in the Lexus commercial. And you, the prematurely graying husband, you, too. Go screw yourselves with your gifts of $60,000 cars! (There goes the Lexus sponsorship for RotoAction.) I know the point is to make us feel inadequate about whatever we bought our loved ones so we'll buy more. But this crosses the line to the point where Corporate America is tempting us to say, "Screw It" and find some other meaning in this time of year. God forbid!

I hate Fox

2005-12-17T15:56:00.000-05:00

So every minute or so of the telecast of the Bucs-Patriots game (which was tough to watch as it was), Fox decides to throw in some Santa sleigh bells. The pinbalification of NFL football telecasts is entire Fox's fault. This is the last straw for me because they're not even selling anything or promoting any holiday special or even Bill O'Reilly's War on Christmas Campaign. They're just doing it for fun. Can't we just listen to the crowd and the sound of the game. Heck, I'll even take the announcers over this. They're like a kid that won't stop talking even though they have nothing to say.

End of post.

Boring Home-League Rant

2005-12-16T15:38:00.000-05:00

I'm in 14-team league with basically the same people (with about four teams rotated every so often) for the past 15 years.

Yes, I'm dating myself. I've had success, but haven't won in too long a time. Six teams make the playoffs. It was four teams out of 12 before we expanded a few years ago. I've made the playoffs every year since Neal Anderson and James Brooks were my starting running backs (Anderson got hurt, I think, and I just missed the dance). That's 13 or 14 years straight making the playoffs. I've had the most total points at least a half-dozen times. I've had the second most points a handful of others. But I've only won two championships as I've had the absolute worst luck in the playoffs.

This league is like the wild west. Seriously, one guy had his father come in this year and wouldn't advise him how to navigate our Byzantine keeper rules. So instead of tossing everyone back and getting the No. 1 pick and LT, he kept the No. 4 overall slot and ended up with Priest Holmes and Alge Crumpler as his only keeper of any note (and we don't even have to play tight ends). Game over for dad. I've seen drafts in friendly leagues where people help out owners late who are fumbling around for guys to fill out their roster. In my league, you offer that and you'll be shot right between the eyes by five guys.

This is long expostion to set up the fact that we don't allow any transactions after Week 13. The trading deadline is Week 11. And once you spend your free agent money, you can't make zero bids (and the minimum is like $10). Owners hope someone will get hopelessly screwed (just not them).

Now, I was floundering around this season until Larry Johnson paid dividends. But my QB situation was hit or miss. Drew Brees was solid, but was heavily invested in him anyway because I have Gates (we have bonus scoring for tight ends that basically makes them about 25 percent more valuable than a WR with the same stats). I had Jake Plummer, too, but also was playing Mike Anderson at times (I have Droughns and Kevin Jones too in a 14-teamer) and have the Broncos as my team in fantasy scoring that is determined by winning or losing and is based on how many points Denver actually scored. So, I was always uncomfortable investing that heavily in Denver, who are hit or miss offensively.

So, I get Gado before he does anything and, as soon as he does, package him and my QBs right at the trading deadline for Bulger, Jamie Martin and Andre Johnson (to be my fourth receiver, as I have Marvin Harrison and Roy Williams). I wanted that Rams passing game with three indoor games playoff weeks 14, 15 and 16. It gave me distance scoring explosion (distance is huge in our league), great diversification and guaranteed indoor starts for my QB in the dead of December. Remember, too, that Martin had a great distance scoring game against Jacksonville when Bulger was hurt earlier in the year.

Well, you know what happened next. The guys in my league are yucking it up, saying I made a dumb trade. But two QBs injured is two injured and it could just as easily have been Brees and Plummer. Plus I was trying to go for the throat of the Tomlinson owner, who I was chasing for the total points prize, too.

There's nothing I can do except play Martin and hope Fitzgerald gets hurt or benched. (Yes, I hope he gets hurt. Screw him. He has an Ivy League education to fall back on.) There are no moves. And even if I kept my $10, I would have been outbid for Fitzgerald and there is no contingency bidding (and few QBs as of Week 13, when all tranactions ended).

Of course, L.J., Gates and Harrison can continue to carry me. But that's unlikely as the playoff competiton gets better.

The hysterical thing is that the same thing happened to me the week before a championship game in 1998 when Mark Brunell and his backup were my QBs. The backup had showed flashes, so I figured I was alright securing the Jaguars QB when aggressively trading to fortify other positions. But Brunell's backup got hurt right after Brunell did, leaving me without a QB in that pivotal game, which I ended up losing by a whisker. That Brunell's backup that year? I kid you not, Jamie Martin!

Next year, the playoff teams are getting some extra moves. Like getting two timeouts in overtime. This is a silly way to lose.

God Awful ESPN Sunday Night Crew

2005-12-04T21:38:00.000-05:00

Why do I listen to them? I could put on iTunes through my stereo and listen while I watch the game. But then why did I pay all that money to drop 13 stories in a free fall at Disney? Maybe it's the thrill of knowing I'll come out the other side okay, eventually.

I hate the constant chatter of a three-man booth. But Theismann is a three-man booth all by himself. Add in Maguire and Patrick and that's the equivalent of six people barking in your ear at the bar.

First we have to hear how LaMont Jordan told them that if the Raiders only have the patience to give him the ball on third and 10, it will be a close game in San Diego through the fourth quarter. Flippin' brilliant, LaMont. Actually, I've spoken to Jordan and he's not stupid enough to say something like that, so they probably misquoted him.

Then we have to hear how Randy Moss is a good guy and teammate and the exact opposite of Terrell Owens. I love Moss. But come on. Someone should have had the guts that Moss may be a good guiy, but he's the exact opposite of Owens when it comes to running out routes on plays where you're not the primary receiver and blocking downfield, too.

NFL Too Greedy

2005-12-04T13:04:00.000-05:00

Are you kidding me with the Giants wearing the red uniforms today? This is the biggest game the Giants have played in years. Against the Cowboys and their ex-coach. This was a day for Big Blue. Save the merchandizing concerns for October games against the Cardinals.

Why didn't I put my feelings for Amani Toomer about six weeks ago in print? I picked him up in my biggest league (a 14-teamer) off waivers. A "Buy" in my sydnicated column would have been nice. I was scared off by my over-enthusiasm in the first month for Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress who has, somewhat predictably, been replaced by Jeremy Shockey as Eli's favorite receiver.

I just found out tha Matthew Sweet released an album that reunited his "Girlfriend" band only in Japan after cutting 13 new songs in a week. I realize I'm about one of five people in this country who follow Matthew Sweet semi-closely, which is a shame because he's unfairly neglected like his 1970s inspiration, Big Star. The album rocks, by the way if you dig guitar rock and great harmonizing. "Kimi Ga Suki," on iTunes. Released in 2002? Man, I missed the boat there.

What's Jeff Feagles doing with the Super Bowl-winning hystrionics after having a punt downed at the one? I guess that's as good as you can get when you're a punter, but punting is a defeat in and of itself. So pipe down. I've heard too much from him the last two weeks, with his consecutive games streak (that makes a mockery of such streaks, as punters aren't football players).

Roethlisberger just hit a long completion on first-down. Throw more on first down, coaches! Especially you, Cowher. I want some team to hire the coach from Texas Tech, Michael Leach. He spreads his offensive lineman three-to-six feet apart to create throwing lanes and attacks, attacks, attacks with five WRs. When the defense starts dropping 11 guys into coverage, he runs. That's the way to play football. Think outside of the box. Read Michael Lewis' excellent profile in today's Sunday Times magazine, which I think is free on the Times website.

More Later....

Wizard of Goz on the Fantasy Playoffs

2005-11-24T10:01:00.000-05:00

Five Things not to do in the Quest for a Fantasy Football Playoff Spot

1. Do not make a lineup decision based on a Thanksgiving Day appearance. You
may get lucky but in the likely event that you don't, Sunday will be a long day with a short
roster.

2. Do not ever bench a steady performer for a flavor of the week (think Samkon
Gado).

3. Do not linger on live game feeds like its a lifeline. Last I knew, Fantasy Football
owners never scored a touchdown.

4. Do not dump players out of spite. Some leagues may not allow this. Those that do go
through owners like hot knives through butter.

5. Do not resort to praying, changing the name of your team or pulling your starting lineup out of a hat.

Power Rankings Debate

2005-11-16T21:57:00.000-05:00

Breakfast Table co-author Scott Pianowski e-mailed me today backstage:

"I swear I don't mean this with any malice, but how can the Jets be ranked 16th (in the Stat Power Index)?"

Here's my response:

They're obviously helped greatly by penalties, which I'm always on the fence about. But they're 20th in YPA Net, which is the most important measure. And they're only 10 index points ahead of the 20th team, which is pretty insignificant. (So 16 may not be as far off as it appears.) Remember, too, that the Index doesn't rate a team today as much as it rates a team for the season to date. So injuries don't influence the standings until they influence the stats (and I like it that way because we're always just guessing with injury impact; look at the Eagles a couple of years ago after they lost McNabb).

Most important to note: the Index never looks forward (pure guesswork), but only looks back on the assumption that what has happened is the best predictor of what will happen.

I think the Index is a good way to how large teams' problems are. Last year, the Index had teams like the Redskins, Bucs and Panthers rated on borderline playoff teams. There wasn't too much that needed to be done to get these teams better.

Maybe the Jets aren't as far away from contending as their records suggests. Maybe they're baseline is a little higher. They pass defense is holding up their YPA and PPA to quasi-respectable levels. Any team that is mediocre in those categories has hope if they make a couple of adjustments that swing things on even one side of the ball.

Really, would you be shocked if the Jets beat the Bears if they were to play? I wouldn't be. Teams in the top third generally have one strong unit and no weak one. In the middle third, they have one strong unit (the Jets defense is above average, I think; the Panthers had 200 yards last week and the Jets were set to tie the game late in the third quarter). Teams in the bottom third generally have no strengths.

YPC Leaders/Trailers - Week 10

2005-11-08T22:02:00.000-05:00

Yards Per Completion - Offense

1 Panthers 13.55
2 Steelers 13.28
3 Giants 12.91
4 Raiders 12.54
5 Cowboys 12.07
6 Patriots 11.99
7 Chargers 11.53
8 Eagles 11.52
9 Jaguars 11.40
10 Saints 11.33
11 Redskins 11.30
12 Chiefs 11.20
13 Colts 11.10
14 Seahawks 11.04
15 Rams 11.02
16 Broncos 10.97
17 Browns 10.93
18 Bengals 10.77
19 Dolphins 10.76
20 Falcons 10.74
21 Cardinals 10.60
22 Packers 10.25
23 Jets 9.99
24 Vikings 9.96
25 Titans 9.66
26 Bucs 9.53
27 Lions 9.09
28 Bears 8.88
29 Niners 8.75
30 Ravens 8.72
31 Bills 8.20
32 Texans 7.13

Yards Per Completion - Defense

1 Colts 8.83
2 Bears 8.90
3 Bengals 9.81
4 Jaguars 9.83
5 Jets 9.89
6 Ravens 9.91
7 Steelers 9.92
8 Browns 10.13
9 Dolphins 10.14
10 Lions 10.20
11 Giants 10.31
12 Bills 10.37
13 Falcons 10.40
14 Redskins 10.54
15 Seahawks 10.55
16 Chargers 10.65
17 Raiders 10.68
18 Saints 10.79
19 Panthers 10.91
20 Packers 10.95
21 Cowboys 10.98
22 Bucs 11.01
23 Vikings 11.09
24 Chiefs 11.30
25 Rams 11.32
26 Titans 11.35
27 Broncos 11.44
28 Texans 11.56
29 Eagles 11.64
30 Cardinals 11.71
31 Niners 12.33
32 Patriots 13.54

Goz's Enemies List

2005-11-04T13:23:00.000-05:00

(From contributor John Gozzi. Of these guys, I still like K. Jones and Green, but Goz is frustrated by an ill-timed drop there in light of the firewords in San Diego last week.)

Mid-season arch enemies

Players non grata

Sons of biscuits that hit me where it hurts

1. Trent Green, cut the bum two years in a row and then he rains 300 yard games
2. Julius Jones , the fact that I am in contention still with him on my team is a miracle
3. Kevin Jones, his picture is under mediocrity in the fantasy football sports dictionary
4. Andre Johnson, talk about lousy- then hurt
5. Reggie Wayne, speed and hands but no balls

Yard Per Completion Through Week 8

2005-11-01T15:23:00.001-05:00

Here, again, are current leaders in yards per completion gained (first) and allowed:

Yards Per Completion Offense (League Average: 10.74)

Team YPC O
1 Steelers 13.96
2 Raiders 13.28
3 Panthers 13.09
4 Giants 12.75
5 Patriots 12.28
6 Cowboys 12.07
7 Saints 11.56
8 Chiefs 11.48
9 Redskins 11.47
10 Jaguars 11.42
11 Chargers 11.33
12 Eagles 11.31
13 Dolphins 11.05
14 Colts 11.02
15 Rams 11.02
16 Broncos 10.97
17 Seahawks 10.95
18 Falcons 10.92
19 Bengals 10.62
20 Cardinals 10.61
21 Browns 10.35
22 Packers 10.26
23 Vikings 10.15
24 Jets 9.91
25 Bucs 9.62
26 Titans 9.39
27 Lions 9.28
28 Ravens 9.03
29 Niners 8.97
30 Bears 8.66
31 Bills 8.20
32 Texans 6.77

Yard Per Completion (Defense)

Team YPC D
1 Colts 8.59
2 Ravens 8.85
3 Jets 9.37
4 Bears 9.53
5 Browns 9.84
6 Steelers 9.95
7 Redskins 9.99
8 Jaguars 10.06
9 Dolphins 10.17
10 Bucs 10.17
11 Bengals 10.28
12 Bills 10.37
13 Lions 10.44
14 Giants 10.52
15 Seahawks 10.54
16 Falcons 10.63
17 Chargers 10.66
18 Saints 10.77
19 Raiders 10.87
20 Titans 10.89
21 Cowboys 10.98
22 Cardinals 11.22
23 Panthers 11.23
24 Packers 11.26
25 Rams 11.32
26 Broncos 11.44
27 Texans 11.60
28 Vikings 11.70
29 Eagles 11.85
30 Niners 12.17
31 Chiefs 12.25
32 Patriots 14.04

Wizard of Goz on Fantasy Hoops

2005-10-27T12:38:00.000-04:00

Reader/RotoAction contributer John Gozzi has some thought on fantasy basketball (Mike must confess to not following basketball closely since the Knicks traded Patrick Ewing).

NBA Fantasy- The hidden gem

So the game sucks, it's boring, the refs stink, and the players cannot shoot or play defense. On the bright side an NBA boxscore is a work of art. Highly informative , easy to read and brutally honest. Don't go to a game all season, just tune in to ESPN coverage and grab a magazine or cheat sheet and pick a team. Yahoo offers free leagues, private or public. The drafts can be online or offline-stakes or no stakes.

Top five sleepers- based on fifth round or later in a typical ten team league
*Josh Smith, Atlanta: athleticism is off the charts
*J.R Smith, Hornets: not old enough to drink but can fill up the hoop
*Andre Igoudalla, Sixers: Philly stallion
*Kirk Hinrich, Chicago: far from gun-shy leader of the baby Bulls
*Al Jefferson, Boston: the opportunity is there

END OF POST

Yards Per Completion Through Week 7

2005-10-26T10:28:00.000-04:00

In honor of Dr. Z. (who hates YPA because of all the four-yard passes on third and six). Here are the yards per COMPLETION leaders and trailers. NFL Average is currently 10.70. Gained first, then allowed (sorry for the columns being screwy):

YPC Offense

1 Steelers 15.22
2 Raiders 13.23
3 Giants 13.03
4 Panthers 12.45
5 Cowboys 12.27
6 Patriots 12.23
7 Redskins 12.07
8 Saints 11.94
9 Chiefs 11.77
10 Jaguars 11.41
11 Dolphins 11.25
12 Colts 11.02
13 Chargers 10.97
14 Seahawks 10.95
15 Falcons 10.92
16 Cardinals 10.79
17 Rams 10.76
18 Bengals 10.70
19 Eagles 10.51
20 Broncos 10.41
21 Packers 10.19
22 Vikings 10.09
23 Browns 9.97
24 Jets 9.91
25 Titans 9.74
26 Lions 9.56
27 Bucs 9.36
28 Niners 9.23
29 Ravens 8.87
30 Bears 7.90
31 Bills 7.42
32 Texans 6.15

YPC Defense

1 Colts 8.57
2 Bears 9.01
3 Jets 9.37
4 Jaguars 9.49
5 Ravens 9.65
6 Browns 9.69
7 Steelers 9.90
8 Redskins 9.95
9 Bills 10.05
10 Lions 10.09
11 Bengals 10.20
12 Dolphins 10.42
13 Bucs 10.49
14 Titans 10.54
15 Seahawks 10.54
16 Broncos 10.59
17 Falcons 10.63
18 Chargers 10.70
19 Vikings 10.86
20 Giants 10.89
21 Saints 10.94
22 Cowboys 11.25
23 Panthers 11.29
24 Rams 11.31
25 Cardinals 11.32
26 Texans 11.34
27 Eagles 11.43
28 Packers 11.50
29 Raiders 11.70
30 Chiefs 12.08
31 Niners 12.32
32 Patriots 14.40

END OF POST

Word Series Pick

2005-10-22T10:09:00.000-04:00

We're 4-2 thus far in the postseason picking series based on net OPS (on base plus slugging percentage).

This is a very tough series. Neither team can hit. The Astros have very slightly better quality at the top of the rotation, but Freddy Garcia appears to be the White Sox fourth starter and he badly outclasses Brandon Backe. In fact, I don't understand why Garcia doesn't start game three. If this series goes seven games, I'd want Garcia pitching it before Jon Garland. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.

Jose Contreres is pitching as well as anyone right now, so that Game 1 matchup should be a classic. Buerhle and Pettitte is another even matchup. But the Astros get the edge with Roy Oswalt against Garland, as Oswalt is in a differnt class of pitcher. But that advantage for Houston is overwhelmed by the edge the White Sox have with Garcia over Backe.

The offensive struggles of both teams all season need to be viewed in the context of their home parks, which are hitter-friendly. So these lineups are even worse than they appear when looking at the raw stats, which are pretty bad. The White Sox slug well but don't get on base, as only two hitters are over .350 in OBP, Paul Konerko and Scott Podsednik, but Podsednik has struggled since the all-star break. Four Sox, Juan Uribe, Joe Crede, Carl Everett and A.J. Pierzynski, have OBPs below .310. Konerko is solid, but should be pitched around. The next best hitter is Tad Iguchi. (Guillen cracked me up when he said that Iguchi would hit 30 homers if he wasn't batting No. 2, which raises the obvious question, which, of course, went unasked, "Then why are you batting him No. 2, genius?")

The Astros appear a little more solid to me mainly because they have two premium guys in the lineup in Morgan Ensberg, who really surprised me this year, and Lance Berkman. Other Astros like Craig Biggio and Jason Lane have pretty significant home/road splits (where they hit much worse on the road, especially Biggio), but that's not much of a factor here because both parks are a hitting paradise, especially to righty power hitters.

Some people I respect, especially the guys at Baseball Prospectus, really like the Sox pen. I have my doubts. I know that Cliff Politte really shined this year in a (too) limited role, but why did his activity decline so dramatically after the break? Fatigue? Injury? There was appreciable decline in the numbers across the board and he gave up six homers after the break, too. Bobby Jenks pitched well but wasn't tested in the ALCS because of all the complete games. Bobby Jenks is a great story and had a second half very comparable to Brandon Lidge. But will Jenks be able to harness his control (which had been a problem during his minor league career) when the crowd is in an October tizzy? There's more risk with Jenks.

The Astros don't have a lefty in the pen and that's a problem against the White Sox. The Sox have lefties Damaso Marte (who was terrible during the regular season) and converted starter Neal Cotts, who was very good throughout 2005.

Both benches are bad, but the White Sox have perhaps the worst bench of any World Series team in memory. It gets a little better for them when Carl Everett can come off the bench in the NL, but their lack of depth is more likely to be exposed in games where the pitchers hit. If the games in Houston go into extra innings, which you can definitely see happening at least once or twice, it's advantage Astros.

I'm a sucker for the storyline here, which is 1917 right after 1918 last year with the Red Sox. Joe Jackson right after Babe Ruth. The Black Sox right after the Bambino. It's interesting to note how much of the story with the Black Sox is open to interpretation. Was Jackson in on it? Did he confess? Did baseball know about it before the Series even started (chosing to cover it up)? Was the Series fixed or just an odd game or two (and is that even a material distinction)? There may be some answers in a new book, Burying the Black Sox, but the author did not distinguish himself on Olbermann's show last night.

Net OPS give a slight edge to the White Sox. I think the homefield advantage is significant (and it's so silly that it gets decided by the stupid All Star game). White Sox in 6.

Bush League Interception Bullying

2005-10-20T21:05:00.000-04:00

REFRESH THIS PAGE EACH VISIT.

Pianow and I were talking backstage after Marc Bulger was blasted while in the process of getting into the fetal position after an interception on Monday Night. The resulting shoulder injury turned a RamS rout into a Colts rout and basically ended St. Louis' season. Z. had something about it too on SI.com. My feeling is that guys hunting and killing the QB on interception has to be stopped. It's thuggery that's been going on for a while but hasn't always been in vogue. I was telling Scott that I can't even imagine some defender hunting down Joe Namath to blast him after a pick (and he certainly threw enough of them). All these rules to protect teams from losing their QB unnecessarily and you allow that type of nonsense. Teams view it as a free shot. Rarely if ever is it consequential in terms of the runback. END OF POST.

NFL Yards Per Completion Through Week 6

2005-10-20T20:49:00.000-04:00

In this week's Breakfast Table (see link on left because blogger.com doesn't make linking easy), Scott Pianowski speculated that Steve McNair and the Titans were dumping it off too much in light of Erron Kinney's catches. Turns out he was right (as usual), as the Titans are 25th in Yards Per Completion, which rarely gets mentioned anywhere. That Steelers number is incredible and if memory serves Eli's current number is better than Peyton's last year. Want more perspective? The single-season leader in the modern era is Cincy's Greg Cook, whose career lasted only a year due to injury, at 17.8 in 1969. Joe Namath registered a 17.5 in 1972. After that, you have a bunch of 14s and 15s.

On the defensive side of the ball, look who's last in the NFL: the world champion Patriots. There is less variation on the defensive numbers, which suggests to me that Yards Per Completion is more a function of the offense, maybe similar to how batting average on balls put in play is more a function of the batter and not the pitcher. The NFL average is 10.79. Current season rankings follow.

Offensive YPC:

Steelers 16.08
Giants 14.10
Raiders 13.20
Cowboys 12.66
Panthers 12.45
Patriots 12.23
Saints 11.96
Jaguars 11.41
Chiefs 11.31
Eagles 11.29
Redskins 11.29
Seahawks 11.22
Falcons 11.12
Colts 11.02
Cardinals 10.87
Chargers 10.80
Bengals 10.79
Rams 10.79
Dolphins 10.68
Browns 10.37
Broncos 10.35
Jets 10.26
Packers 9.92
Vikings 9.88
Titans 9.71
Lions 9.56
Niners 9.51
Bucs 9.36
Ravens 9.10
Bears 7.72
Bills 7.59
Texans 6.54

Defensive YPC

Colts 8.91
Bears 9.30
Bills 9.33
Jets 9.35
Jaguars 9.49
Dolphins 9.71
Browns 9.72
Ravens 9.80
Steelers 9.87
Redskins 10.24
Bengals 10.27
Bucs 10.49
Lions 10.52
Titans 10.61
Vikings 10.69
Seahawks 10.78
Broncos 10.81
Giants 10.90
Saints 11.02
Falcons 11.04
Rams 11.24
Panthers 11.29
Eagles 11.36
Texans 11.40
Chargers 11.59
Packers 11.61
Cowboys 11.66
Chiefs 11.68
Cardinals 11.75
Niners 11.77
Raiders 12.68
Patriots 14.40
And here is the rest of it.

Angels vs. White Sox

2005-10-11T14:30:00.000-04:00

The Angels are really screwed by MLB not wanting to play two games on Wednesday (which isn't a big deal in this world of 700 channels). Forcing them to play Sunday night in New York, Monday afternoon in Anaheim and Tuesday night in Chicago is just ridiculous.

It looks like Bartolo Colon isn't going to be back after coming out with shoulder pain in the biggest start of his life. That really thins out the Angels staff, thrusting Paul Byrd (the Game 1 starter) and Jarrod Washburn (who missed his turn against the Yanks due to illness) into prominent roles. The best that can be said about Byrd is that he doesn't beat himself. Kelvim Escobar might be able to make as start, but the Angels are better off leaving him in relief as there's no way he'd be able to pitch more than five innings after missing most of the year with arm trouble.

The White Sox are sitting pretty with their rotation. Jose Contreras is red hot and gets another home start. Mark Buehrle goes in Game 2 versus Washburn, who is a proven mediocrity. That's a big advantage to the White Sox. Chicago still has Freddy Garcia and Jon Garland for Games 3 and 4. So, huge starting advantage for Anaheim.

Chicago's starters need to go far into games becasue the bullpen is unproven. But Bobby Jenks stepped up against Boston, so that's one big pelt on his wall. Getting to Jenks is the bigger problem, though I'm confident in Cliff Politte. The White Sox could use a vintage Damaso Marte, but he's been awful all year and allowed three Red Sox to get on base without recording an out. Not having a reliable lefty against the Angels is a problem. Yes, Chicago has Neal Cotts, who allowed only one homer in 60 innings this year. But Cotts only faced one batter versus Boston. So Cotts is green, which may cause Guillen to make a "veteran" mistake and rely on Marte.

Neither team has much of an offense. The Angels get the advantage in the pen, of course, though K-Rod has lost zip on his fastball and is mostly a breaking ball pitcher now. As a result, he allows too many baserunner because hitters will put that pitch in play when they see it time after time.

Net OPS gives a significant edge to the White Sox. The circumstances all favor the White Sox. It would be great to have a team win its first series since 1917 a year after a team snapped its 1918 streak. White Sox in 6.

Astros vs. Cardinals

2005-10-11T14:14:00.000-04:00

We were 3-for-4 in picking the divisional round based largely on Net OPS, losing only the pick of Yanks over Angels in five.

Speaking of the Yankees, what was Joe Torre thinking in letting Mike Mussina give up five runs in under three innings last night? He had a sufficiently rested Randy Johnson. He had the lead in the game and all of the series momentum. Mussina is battling arm trouble which resulted in a recent, lengthy DL trip. But he gives up the lead and then is allowed to surrender two more runs, which proved decisive. That's just terrbile managing from a guy who rides Mariano Rivera for two innings in April games against Tampa Bay.

The Yanks were also burned by their laid-back approach to that last game in Fenway. If they won, they would have secured homefield advantage in Round 1. But they mailed it in and ended up in Anaheim in Game 5. There is no way on earth that Ervin Santana would have survived that bout of wildness in the Bronx. But teams never take homefield seriously. If they're in the playoffs anyway, they couldn't care less, in all sports.

Now, back the NL and the NLCS matchup we predicted. The Cardinals had an easy time with the Padres, but take a big step up in weight class vesus Houston, which has a great staff. The Astros don't have a championship-caliber offense, especially when you adjust their stats down for park factors. But the have three Cy Young-level starters and a lights-out closer. So, they are not a team you want to see in a short series. Houston has to get production out of Morgan Ensberg if the Cardinals use the same approach as the Braves in pitching to Lance Berkman (which is to say, NOT pitching to him).

The Cardinals have okay starters (when you include Chris Carpenter, who will likely win the Cy Young award). Jason Ishringhausen is not the guy you want to pulling your bacon out of the fire in the ninth inning. But he's all they have. Where St. Louis shines is on offense, even minus Scott Rolen and with Jim Edmonds in decline. Reggie Sanders has been dynamite. And they have the best hitter on the planet in Albert Pujols.

The Cardinals are overrated. But they have the advantage of getting the extra home game and I think that will end up being decisive. OPS Net says Cards by a hair. I agree. Cardinals in 7.

Yanks vs. Angels

2005-10-04T13:58:00.000-04:00

Net OPS says the Yanks are the second-best team in baseball (behind the Indians). The stat doesn't like the Angels. In fact, it says the Rangers are better. That strikes me as a strike against Net OPS.

The Angels are a tougher matchup in a short series than their stats indicate because the off days allow them to really ride that unbelieable bullpen.

As an aside, let me say that it's completely ridiculous to look at head-to-head stats. The sample size of 10 games is silly small. And the games were spread too far apart. But my morning paper not only focuses on them but doesn't even include the full-season stats. What a waste. So I have to go from window to window here, which is a pain.

Anaheim's lineup is anemic. There's no power outside of Guerrero. Garret Anderson you say? Not since his arthitic condition sapped his slugging. When Bengie Molina is batting fifth, you better be winning with pitching. (And I know Molina had a good roto year, heck, even a good real year. But you can't be serious with him batting fifth in the AL.)

The Yankees starters are very shaky. No one knows if Mussina is healthy. Randy Johnson will likely dominate, although the Angels don't strikeout a lot and can be pesky to power pitchers. After that, it's really scary. Chien-Ming Wang goes Game 2 and Wang throws hard but doesn't miss enough bats. And he wilted in Fenway with all of those walks. But the Red Sox series boxed them in, as Johnson threw Saturday and needs him full rest. I do not believe in Shawn Chacon at all, but he can matchup against Jarrod Washburn (meaning they'll both be lucky to last six innings).

Now this is where things swing the Angels way. You know all about K-Rod (who hasn't been nearly as dominating since returning from his forearm trouble). Shields is great. Donnelly is very capable. But the two best arms in the pen might be guys who didn't pitch there most of the year: Kelvim Escobar and Ervin Santana (3.83 ERA since the break as a starter, so knock about a run off that as a reliever and boost the K-rate by about 30 percent). That's a pretty strong bridge to Shields and Rodriguez. Who are the Yanks bridge relievers? Aaron Small? Proctor? Please. In the late innings, the Yanks are just as good, with the underrated Tom Gordon and, of course, Rivera.

A-Rod, Matsui, Sheffield.... That's how the Yanks need to win this series. Will they get the better of the Angels relievers in the mid-to-late innings? Remember, after them you still have Jason Giambi and Jeter, which is pretty damn good. Offensively, the Angels are nickel and dime and Big Vlad. I can't see that being enough. Yanks in Five.

White Sox vs. Red Sox

2005-10-04T10:08:00.000-04:00

It's great that the Red Sox have to play a cursed team. Call it the Shoeless Joe curse, as the Pale Hose have not won a World Series since the Black Sox Scandal.

I hate the way the rotation is lining up for Boston. Matt Clement has been shot since he took a liner in the head a couple months back. His Game 1 mound opponent is Jose Contreras, who has been dominant in the second half. I guess Boston fans can hope that Contreras wilts under the pressure, but I always felt that was overstated when he was in the Bronx. There has to be more pressure pitching for Castro than for Steinbrenner, don't you think? I mean, George can't throw your family in prison, can he?

Wells vs. Buerhle can go either way in Game 2. The offenses will decide that one. That means, the Red Sox win because the White Sox aren't in the same offensive class. Game 3 is the key to the series. Wakefield was so bad in the big spot against the Yankees. Jon Garland has been a revelation in '04 and, yes, he's been a little lucky. But he's average-to-good. Who do the White Sox start in Game 4? Why isn't Freddy Garcia listed? He was great in his last start and claims to be healthy. I'm assuming the AP made a mistake. Garcia actually should start Game 3.

Both teams have trouble in the pen. I don't believe in Mike Timlin in a big spot. Papelbon is untested in the playoffs. But that's nothing compared to the White Sox, who have very raw Bobby Jenks, who can fire it up there at 100 mph. Dustin Hermanson is the putative closer, but he's been fighting back problems all summer.

Net OPS has this matchup basically even, with a so slight edge to the White Sox. These teams are evenly matched. I don't like Ozzie Guillen's game management and he could cost them with stupid baserunning and other questionable decisions like putting Garland ahead of Garcia in the playoff rotation. Can Schilling and Wakefield come through after Clement spits the bit in Game 1? I don't think so. White Sox in five.

Cards vs. Padres

2005-10-04T09:48:00.000-04:00

I feel sorry for St. Louis and their fans because you just don't want to play a team like the Padres in the playoffs. A win for St. Louis is ho-hum and a loss would be the talk of the baseball world.

How about Pedro Astacio starting Game 2? I thought the Rangers made a mistake releasing him because his strikeout/walks were very solid despite the bad ERA in the early going. In August and September, he's rewarded the Padres with one quality start after another. Most people view his matchup against Mark Mulder as the reason why San Diego can't win the series. But Mulder was blasted two starts ago by Milwaukee and gave up seven walks in his final four-inning tune up. Something is wrong there.

Jake Peavy and Chris Carpenter is going to be a good Game 1 matchup. I like Peavy's intensity, though it rubs many the wrong way. And I've always been a Carpenter fan, even through all the arm trouble. The Padres offense isn't as bad as the numbers indicate because they play in an extreme pitchers park. Of course, that means the pitching (mediocre) is worse than it appears. How does Trevor Hoffman get people out with that junk? Changing speeds is key. But I always expect change-up closers to go Keith Foulke on us.

Net OPS calls this for easily for the Cards, who are third best in baseball in that category. I think it's going to go five games just because teams that people argue don't belong in the postseason seem to surprise a lot. I'm thinking of those old Twins teams and the 1973 Mets, who vanquished the Big Red Machine when it was in all its glory. In the end, though, the Cardinals offensive will carry the way led by the ridiculous Albert Pujols.

Braves vs. Astros

2005-10-04T09:24:00.000-04:00

Net OPS slightly favors the Astros. But I think this is an easy win for the Astros. Clemens has gotten all the ink, but Andy Pettitte has pitched at least as well. Roy Oswalt was less lucky on balls put in play and gives the Astros a third Cy Young-caliber pitcher.

Compare that front three to the Braves, who have John Smoltz and his barking shoulder, the far-from-dominate Tim Hudson and the very lucky Jorge Sosa. So, the Astros staff is miles better.

The Braves had a much better offense during the regular season. I don't put much stock in Andrew Jones' slump down the stretch. He'll be fine. But Jeff Francoeur never had the underlying stats to support his production (56 Ks, 11 BBs in 256 ABs). So his slump isn't surprising. The Astros need Morgan Ensberg and Lance Berkman to carry them. Expect Berkman to lead the way.

How on earth did Lidge give up 57 hits in 69 innings while striking out 102 batters? Glad to see the Mets let Dan Wheeler get away, only to see him emerge as one of the league's best middle relievers. Speaking of bullpen bargains, how did Kyle Farnsworth get underneath the radar last offseason? He's had years like this before. Farnsworth was lights out in September but the rest of the Braves pen is questionable.

The Braves finished 29-28 since August 1. The Astros came back from 15 games under to win 89 games. Astros in four.

Baseball's Battle of the Stats

2005-10-01T16:17:00.000-04:00

I enjoy Baseball Prospectus and think they do a really good job at pushing the envelope by challenging conventional wisdom.

However, the one frustrating thing about their fine work is that it's not easy to explain to people who are not stat and math savvy. When doing the baseball column, I used Net OPS as a way to convey to readers which teams are playing better or worse than W-L records indicate. I thought it worked nicely. When I told my friends there, they were sour on the idea on OPS as a stat.

I'm reminded of my friend Gary who often likes a group until they get popular and then he's off them and on to something else. I think there's a little of that going on here. We need the stat people, the economists, to strive for perfection. But reporters need stats that work while being easily understood (my clients have no space for footnotes). While I agree that it's likely that their "Third Order Pythaganport" standing might spot outliers with slightly greater accuracy, try telling your dad and his friends about it at the local watering hole. On-base plus slugging percentage is mainstream now. And everyone understands the simple concept of subtracting what a team's pitchers allow from what the hitters gain. So, I wondered, how much different would the almost-end-of-season BP third-order pythag standings be from how the teams generally rank in Net OPS?

Again, BP actually recalculates a win total to decimal points. I have not figured out a way to convert net-OPS to a W-L record because I don't care about that (okay, I'm not smart enough). I'm just looking for a quick, simple way to eyeball who should have done better and who should have done worse. This isn't usefull just for slamming or glorifying managers, but for figuring out how much a team needs to improve in the offseason.

So, without further ado, the BP Third Order Pythag standings through Friday followed by the net OPS standings, with the net and win totals in parentheses (the net OPS number seem ridiculously small, but .1 translates to 100 points of OPS, which we all understand to be significant):

TO Pythag AL East:

Yankees (93 wins)
Red Sox (91)
Blue Jays (80)
Orioles (80)
Devil Rays (72)

Net OPS AL East:

Yankees (.053)
Red Sox (.037)
O's (.008)
Blue Jays (-.004)
Devil Rays (-.057)

TO Pythag AL Central

Indians (97)
White Sox (85)
Twins (83)
Tigers (77)
Royals (60)

Net OPS AL Central

Indians (.1, major league best)
White Sox (.039)
Twins (-.002)
Tigers (-.017)
Royals (-.11)

TO Pythag AL West

A's (91)
Angels (87)
Rangers (79)
Mariners (69)

Net OPS AL West

A's (.044)
Rangers (.029)
Angels (.019)
Mariners (-.044)

TO Pythag NL East

Phillies (88)
Mets (88)
Braves (85)
Marlins (80)
Nationals (74)

Net OPS NL East

Braves (.030)
Mets (.030)
Phillies (.023)
Marlins (.006)
National (-.019)

TO Pythag NL Central

Cardinals (90)
Astros (87)
Cubs (84)
Brewers (82)
Reds (73)
Pirates (71)

Net OPS NL Central

Cardinals (.045)
Cubs (.034)
Astros (.032)
Brewers (.024)
Reds (-.049)
Pirates (-.5)

TO Pythag NL West

Padres (75)
Dodgers (69)
Diamondbacks (69)
Giants (67)
Rockies (62)

Net OPS NL West

Padres (-.017)
Dodgers (-.033)
Giants (-.038)
Diamondbacks (-.045)
Rockies (-.076)

Summary: Pretty significant disagreements only on three teams: Twins (Pythag says they're better), Rangers (net OPS says they're better) and Braves (net OPS says they're better). Maybe this is where the translations come in. I obviously haven't recalculated the OPS based on strength of schedule and home parks. I don't think that's a big deal when you're focusing on division records. Plus it's too ethereal. (Okay, I'm not smart enough.)

Week 3 Scramble

2005-09-24T11:49:00.000-04:00

First, the Universe league picks (the salary cap league is too confusing when I paste it):

Colts, Indianapolis IND TMQB
Shipp, Marcel ARI RB
Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
Lelie, Ashley DEN WR
Muhammad, Muhsin CHI WR
Robinson, Marcus MIN WR
Johnson, Keyshawn DAL WR
Watson, Ben NEP TE
Carney, John NOS PK
Chargers, San Diego SDC Def

I have no idea how I'm doing in this league. There are 30 teams and it's very complicated because it's impossible to track who has picked stars and who has avoided them. I'm going with Manning as my one star this week. That's Peyton, of course. Eli, I'm going the other way on. Peyton, five TD passes. Eli, five sacks and four turnovers as the Chargers defense makes him pay for his disrespect.

As for the Survivor league, we were golden on the two easy games but lost the outside-the-box pick (the Packers) last week. That's why it's dangerous to get cute in a survivor league. This week, of course, you have the Colts. But everyone is going to be all over that game. The Eagles are the second biggest favorite. But I can see them having trouble because Oakland can score. I know you never want to pick a road team, but the Cowboys will not lose this week in Frisco, you can book it.

Universe League Picks

2005-09-16T14:39:00.000-04:00

Here's what I went with. My brain turns into cherry jello about halfway through this.

Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC TMQB
Green, Ahman GBP RB
Holmes, Priest KCC RB
Horn, Joe NOS WR
Boldin, Anquan ARI WR
Porter, Jerry OAK WR
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR
Baker, Chris NYJ TE
Vanderjagt, Mike IND PK
Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def.

I'm in another league where you can play anyone any week and every week, but have to submit a lineup that's within budget. Here's what I did in that league (sorry for the garbled copy):

Fantasy Football Draft - Week 2
Deadline to trade is 10 minutes before scheduled kickoff for each player.
TEAM NAME: RotoAction-Salfino
SALARY BALANCE: $0
STATUS: Valid Roster
POS. PLAYER NAME OPP
(vs Pass, Rush) $
QB Carson Palmer - Cin Min (14,25) $46 Trade Player
Kerry Collins - Oak KC (32,7) $49 Trade Player
RB Warrick Dunn - Atl @Sea (21,22) $38 Trade Player
Willie Parker - Pit @Hou (7,28) $27 Trade Player
Reuben Droughns - Cle @GB (4,19) $34 Trade Player
WR Robert Ferguson - GB Cle (25,26) $28 Trade Player
Deion Branch - NE @Car (11,18) $32 Trade Player
Steve Smith - Car NE (24,13) $33 Trade Player
TE Tony Gonzalez - KC @Oak (29,9) $46 Trade Player
FLEX Peyton Manning - Ind Jac (19,17) $66 Trade Player
K Jeff Wilkins - StL @Ari (5,23) $33 Trade Player
Josh Scobee - Jac @Ind (31,10) $32 Trade Player
DEF Cincinnati Defense/Special Min (14,25) $32 Trade Player
Arizona Defense/Special StL (9,3) $29 Trade Player

Week 2 Suicide Solution

2005-09-15T10:03:00.000-04:00

The easy call is the Eagles, who are laying about two TDs at home against Frisco. I know that most are going to pick that game, but even if McNabb is out, the Eagles are very likely to prevail (if not cover).

If you want to hope for disaster against the Niners, who are capable enough defensively, there are the Colts, who are nine-point favorites at Indy vs. the Jags, who beat them in the dome last year. That's the game that the rest of the fantasy universe is most likely to pounce on.

For those who like to think outside-the-box and ghoul the heaviest favorites in order to thin out the population, look toward Green Bay, where the Browns are awful and facing the Packers at Lambeau. We know Green Bay has struggled at home of late, but can't see the Browns prevailing here.

2005 NFL Over/Under Picks

2005-09-15T09:50:00.000-04:00

It's a little late, but Pianow and I exchanged e-mails on this before kickoff last Sunday and I forgot to post it until now. (Well, I also didn't want anyone actually gambling on our recommendation and the books are closed now.)

My picks were Vikings and Chiefs both UNDER 9.5 wins. Also Bengals over 8 wins and Redskins over 7.5.

Pianow, as always, was more detail oriented in his recommendations:

STRONGEST PLAY:

- Carolina over 9

OTHER PLAYS:

- Chicago over 6.5
- Detroit under 8.5

Material herein not to be construed as an encouragement to bet or do anything illegal or otherwise. Enjoy the season.

Home League Roundup

2005-09-08T16:20:00.000-04:00

My home league is a bloodbath every year. There are 14 teams and limited keepers. Even though are keeper rule is tough (you pay three rounds higher to keep a guy than where you drafted him and you generally can't keep guys you trade for during the season), a lot of good guys are off the board at bargain prices.

The teams that had McGahee (in his second year after being drafted in Round 9 when he was still recovering from knee surgery as a rookie) and LaMont Jordan (fifth round price this year) were tough to beat. And they ended up with two solid backs, which is huge in a large league like this.

My team:

Plummer, Brees, K. Jones, M. Anderson (Bell was gone 30 picks into the draft), L. Johnson (a protect), M. Harrison, Roy Williams (Lions), Gates (a 13th round protect, as we don't have to play a TE, but inflate their scoring by about 50 percent), Moulds, Wilkins.

We also don't use defenses, but a better format where teams receive points based on how many points they score that week. If the active NFL team wins its game that week, they get their actual points scored is divided by five. If they lose, the actual score is divided by 10. This is huge because our scoring system is so modest that 40 points gets you a win about 80 percent of the time.

With this system, you want a team that scores a lot primarily and you'll gamble on whether they win. 8-8 teams with no defense are okay as long as they score a lot. I took three teams (which I've never done before): Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys.

NFL Universe League Plays

2005-09-08T14:40:00.000-04:00

Here's what I did. I've had success with this format in the past, winning the two leagues I've played (one mid-season and on league and one playoff league). My strategy with the regular-season league was to save the best for last and take advantage of matchups and injuries to try to time the market on marginal players. Of course, this is a common strategy. The art lies in picking the right players at the right time.

So, for Week 1 (this league has one flex position at RB, WR, or TE every week):

J. Harrington (Packers)
W. McGahee (Texans)
W. Parker (Titans)
I. Bruce (at Niners)
A. Bryant (Bengals)
J. McCareins (at Chiefs)
D. Branch (Raiders)
T. Heap (Colts)
D. Akers (at Falcons)
Redskins D (Bears)

I try to play mostly home teams. I want my kicker indoors whenever possible. I don't want to field too many scrubs, so there's a little balance with Akers, McGahee and Heap (though I like him more than most). McGahee is my one burn this week, but I like the matchup and am hoping for a huge day.

Another Mock, Of Sorts

2005-09-08T14:21:00.000-04:00

Actually, I was helping out an old college friend, Dave Belfield, who was kind enough to supply the name for my website. (I was just happy he didn't offer some obscure Gentle Giant reference, progressive rock fan that he is.)

It was a 10-team league with no funky scoring rules except point per reception (which isn't that funky, but it makes running backs even more valuable). You have to play a tight end. People were well-prepared and things moved very briskly. There were very few poor or even very questionable picks. So, this league was above average in terms of skill level.

I picked eighth. I'm working from memory here, but my picks in order were Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Nate Burleson, Tony Gonzalez, Donald Driver, Kevan Barlow, Tatum Bell, Larry Johnson, Lee Evans, Mewelde Moore, Jake Plummer, Steven Davis (DeShaun Foster went about three rounds earlier), Brandon Lloyd, Keary Colbert, Troy Williamson (Belfield loves fast Vikings rookies and would have gotten fleeced in the unlikely event Williamson does anything big early), Joey Harrington, Mike Nugent, Indianapolis Colts (there are some minus points when you give up more than 29 points).

I wished some better receivers fell to him. I liked Moulds over Evans and Evans goes first everywhere, even in point-per-catch leagues. But Moulds went first here, so I took Evans. Anderson went about two rounds before Bell. I missed J.J. Arrington and Cedric Benson by one pick in back-to-back middle rounds. But I like the upside here at RB a lot. Davis was a steal. But either Bell, Johnson or Moore will emerge as a fantasy difference maker before long.

Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on September 5 - 11

2005-09-02T17:25:00.000-04:00

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in
Jay Payton, OF, A's: He hit seven homers with 21 ribbies in August but is flying under the radar in many leagues, which still view him as a part-time player. He will play a lot, especially with Mark Kotsay again battling back woes.

Jose Contreras, P, White Sox: 3.45 ERA the last three weeks with 22 strikeouts and two walks in his last 28-plus innings. He may be available because of his terrible July (5.71 ERA, 1.53 walks/hits per inning). He gets two home starts this week (Royals, Angels).

Bench 'em

Keith Foulke, P, Red Sox: It's unclear if he'll close at all in 2005 with Mike Timlin pitching well. But even if he does, it's unlikely to happen until he proves he can pitch effectively. Foulke's velocity remains a bigger problem than in prior years.

Francisco Liriano, P, Twins: Scott Baker has already replaced deadbeat Joe Mays. Liriano's minor league stats this year are lights out (206 minor league Ks), but who does he start for? Not Kyle Lohse, who is 3.70 the last three weeks with two walks in his last 24 innings.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Esteban Loaiza, SP, Nationals: He’s been reliable and consistent most of the year, and now’s a good time to buy in with two home starts on tap. Loaiza has a tidy 2.63 ERA when working in the friendly confines of RFK Stadium this season.

Clint Barmes, SS, Rockies: His leg has healed and he’ll spend the rest of the year parked at the top of the Colorado order. The Rockies miss Jake Peavy at the beginning of the week in San Diego, then head to Coors for a weekend of home cooking.

Bench 'em

Jose Mesa, RP, Pirates: He looked like a closer on fumes during a messy August (7.27 ERA), and any chances he gets this week will come against the homer-happy Reds and Diamondbacks.

Ryan Klesko, 1B, Padres: Back problems kept him down during an irrelevant August (.200 average, just one homer), and home games at Petco Park don’t help much either. The Padres have six games in pitching-friendly parks this week, three at Petco and three at Dodger Stadium.

More on OPS and the Baseball Playoffs

2005-08-31T10:53:00.000-04:00

(An update to my column that I do for Grand Rapids, with current OPS team stats)

It seems incredibly obvious that the teams with the greatest advantage in slugging and generating baserunners relative to what their pitchers allow are more likely to win the most games. Still, I'm unaware of anyone correlating OPS differential to winning percentage.

So this test drive is just for fun. Take it to your nearest off-shore casino and you might end up like my friend who lost his rent last year going the wrong way on "Alien vs. Predator."

That disclaimer aside, the best AL team according to this stat is the Indians. In fact, the Indians are No. 1 in baseball in OPS differential (.776 for /.701 allowed). Stop chuckling and note that Cleveland is 8-2 over the last 10 games, has the majors' second-best road record and is neck and neck with the Yanks (.805/.761) for the wildcard. Our analysis suggests the ChiSox (seven games up in the Central) have been lucky, as they are only fifth best in the Junior Circuit (.739/.703). OPS differential likes the A's (.746/.684) to extend their lead over the Angels (.733/.714). The Yankees (.805/.761) have a slight edge on the Red Sox (.819/.780) in the East, but that might not be enough to overcome the three-game lead Boston holds in the loss column. Again, given the Indians dominance, they're the OPS pick to win the wildcard.

The best NL team in this stat is St. Louis (.765/.707). But the Mets (.742/.740) are second, ahead of Atlanta. Given the Braves five-game edge in the loss column, the Mets seem most likely to emerge from the wildcard scramble. The Phillies (.750/.754) and Nationals (.707/.723) are in minus OPS territory, which strongly suggests a September fade. Remember, someone has to win the West and the Padres are the best there in OPS, though predictably mediocre overall (.730/.735). Houston (.726/.798) sits at fourth-best in the NL, well behind the wildcard-bound Mets.

Expert League Review

2005-08-26T10:23:00.000-04:00

Had a draft last night. 10-team expert league with Scott Pianowski and a bunch of Football Guru guys. I had the sixth pick in a snake draft. This league is standard scoring except that there's one-point per reception (which screws up the running back rankings). Here's what I did:

1. Domanick Davis (the reception rule)
2. Ahman Green
3. Curtis Martin
4. Nate Burleson
5. Donald Driver
6. Larry Johnson
7. Todd Heap
8. Eric Moulds
9. Muhsin Muhammad (pretty please play Jeff Blake, Bears)
10. Eddie Kennison
11. Jake Delhomme
12. Jake Plummer
13. Derrick Blaylock (Martin insurance)
14. Justin McCareins
15. Shayne Graham (has a Week 10 bye, latest among kickers)
16. Colts Defense (they force teams into obvious passing situations the second half)

I think that's pretty good. I like LJ as my fourth back. You cannot let your Priest Holmes owner get Johnson. And in deeper leagues, backups with upside aren't handcuffed because everyone is looking for a third back.

Here's Scott Pianowski's team in the same league (he picked 10th). I like Scott's team a lot (no suprise):

1. Deuce McAllister (a steal)
2. Peyton Manning
3. Steven Jackson
4. Tony Gonzalez (a great haul in a one-point per reception league where you have to play a TE)
5. Laveranues Coles
6. J.J. Arrington (Dyn-O-Mite)
7. Chris Chambers
8. Rod Smith
9. Mewelde Moore
10. Brandon Stokely
11. Duce Staley
12. Brandon Lloyd
13. L.J. Smith
14. Bobby Engram (A Pianow Pocket Pick)
15. Sebastian Janikowski
16. Chicago Bears D

Other notables: Marc Bulger was the fourth QB (fifth round). Carson Palmer went in the sixth round (I got Delhomme five rounds later and Plummer six rounds later). Kerry Collins went with the eighth pick of round seven (I like that pick, of course). Chad Johnson went 3-3, two picks before Marvin Harrison. Reggie Wayne also was drafted in Round 3. Antonio Gates went right after Gonzalez (and right before I could grab him). LT and Shaun Alexander went 1-2, as they should in every league. First defense was New England at 10-2, but the Panthers were a better value a full round later. Terrell Owens didn't slide at all, as he was the first receiver taken (2-2, Moss was 2-9).

Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on August 29 - September 4

2005-08-26T10:19:00.000-04:00

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Matthew LeCroy, DH, Twins: He's been flashing light-tower power since Torii Hunter's regular-season-ending injury and even qualifies at catcher in many leagues, given his 26 starts there in '04.

Mike Mussina, P, Yankees: He's been rotten on the road and bad in his last three starts. But we like him this week at Seattle and at Oakland because he's had a solid 76/26 K/BB ratio in road starts, suggesting he's been unlucky.

Bench 'em

Shannon Stewart, OF, Twins: He's avoiding the disabled list with his bad shoulder, but is that merely wishful thinking on the part of the injury-ravaged Twins? He's scheduled to sit all weekend and will be too risky to start come Monday.

Jeremy Bonderman, P, Tigers: He's disappointed since the All-Star break and now is battling a sore wrist after taking a liner in his last start. His two starts this week are very much up in the air.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Kyle Farnsworth, P, Braves: He's zoomed past Chris Reitsma and looks set to be Atlanta's closer for the stretch drive. The schedule agrees with the Braves, as they get the punchless Nationals and the free-swinging Reds.

Dustin Mohr, OF, Rockies: Don't let his season numbers throw you; he's around .290 with eight home runs in the second half. This week Mohr takes aim at two weak Chicago pitchers, then he heads home to friendly Coors Field.

Bench 'em

Livan Hernandez, P, Nationals: He's been racked in four of his last five turns, perhaps because of the season-long knee problems he's been dealing with. Forget the fact that he gets two starts this week; you don't want to use him against the Braves and Phillies.

Rich Aurilia, 2B, Reds: It's not a good time to roll with any fringe Cincinnati player, with the Reds facing Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt and Tim Hudson over three consecutive nights.

Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on August 22 - 28

2005-08-20T20:36:00.001-04:00

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Luis Matos, OF, Orioles: He's been very hot lately, getting his average over .300 to go along with his 13 steals (despite missing a month).

Al Leiter, P, Yankees: There's not much to like about this fading lefty, but hold your nose and take two starts this week at home against the Blue Jays and the moribund Royals.

Bench 'em

Phil Nevin, DH, Rangers: Does anyone want this guy? Now the Rangers are rumored to be looking for a waiver deal after giving most of his at bats to phenom Adrian Gonzalez.

Wade Miller, P, Red Sox: I guess this is why the Red Sox signed Miller for a song. His shoulder is barking again and all that awaits this week are some side sessions.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Noah Lowry, P, Giants: He's got a tidy 1.71 ERA in the second half, and we have to like him at home against the Mets and Phillies. Lowry doesn't throw gas but he's still striking out about eight batters per nine innings.

Ryan Doumit, C, Pirates: He's finally getting regular playing time and rewarding the faith, with a 16-for-32 stretch the past two weeks. The Bucs get a full seven games this week, which is an extra bonus (ten teams have a day off on this slate).

Bench 'em

Woody Williams, P, Padres: He's had five messy starts in six, so even with the Astros and Rockies calling, there's too much risk here.

Mike Lieberthal, C, Phillies: There's a playoff push going on in Philadelphia but it's in spite of this guy. Lieberthal has a puny .211 average, no home runs and one run scored over the past month, another victim of the dog days of August.

Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on August 15 - 21

2005-08-12T16:48:00.000-04:00

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Jamie Moyer, P, Mariners: He gets a start this week against the Royals at home, where he's been dominant. If you own Moyer, plan ahead and minimize starts away from Safeco.

Felix Hernandez, P, Mariners: We don't care where this phenom is hurling. But home starts against the punchless Royals and Twins are very nice.

Bench 'em

Daniel Cabrera, P, Orioles: Ever so tantalizing for fantasy owners, with his dominant stuff and elusive command. Cabrera is thisclose to being a dominant starter. But he's been very wild lately and gets one start this week against the hot, patient A's.

Mark Kotsay, OF, A's: We had high hopes for Kotsay this year, but he's been severely hampered since the break by a recurrence of an old back injury. Keep him benched until he proves he's over it.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Juan Pierre, OF, Marlins. Now is the time to buy him low, so you can watch him pile up the bags against Los Angeles on the weekend. When it comes to throwing out base stealers, the Dodger catchers are far and away the worst in the league.

Matt Holliday, OF, Rockies. He's at .358 since the break with seven home runs, and all the Rockies will have more fun now that Todd Helton is back in the mix. Colorado is home for all six games this week.

Bench 'em

Doug Davis, P, Brewers. He hasn't won in his last nine starts, and his control has totally abandoned him the last couple of weeks. Find another economical lefty.

Preston Wilson, OF, Nationals. Those deep fences in Washington are no fun, just ask Jose Guillen. Wilson is hitting just .226 since touching base in DC, with 33 strikeouts in 84 at-bats.

Pianowski Responds Re: T.O.

2005-08-12T11:28:00.000-04:00

By Scott Pianowksi

These are things I said about TO Thursday, at some point, in some order. They might not flow cohesively, but for what it's worth, I said them or wrote them:

I think most of what I have read on Wednesday was fair. Owens was suspended, he didn't leave on his own accord. But he did act like a man who was begging to be suspended.

When something like this happens to a player once, or maybe twice, maybe it's them. A full career of it? It's you. Accept responsibility. Steve Mariucci, Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid. What do they all have in common? Highly respected men who tried very hard to make it work with TO - and came away shaking their heads, thinking, there's no way you can do it.

How many teams would go after Owens in trade right now? Not many. Many no one. Is everyone just morons and only TO is enlightened? I can't buy that.

I realize this isn't as black-and-white as everyone seems, and Owens isn't quite as bad a guy as he's generally accepted as, but still, I think he created most of the current situation he's in. I can't find a way to get around that.

If the addendum had an addendum, I'd go the other side of what Mike's saying. TO isn't 100 percent in the wrong, but he's gone out of his way to make his life difficult and tricky and hard. I don't have sympathy for that. And I think he basically forced the one-week suspension with the collection of his acts, especially swearing at Reid and refusing to practice with the team when he's doing physical stuff elsewhere. If I ran the Eagles or rooted for them, I'd be thinking either (a) we're not giving in here, or (b) we need to move this guy. Period.

To a lesser extent, this is why the Vikings were smart to do what they did with Moss. As great as Randy Moss is, he brought the same circus element TO does, and a healthy cap chunk to boot, and eventually you realize, "hey, maybe we're better off without this guy, no matter that he's insanely talented." In some other sports, it may not matter as much, this type of disharmony - baseball especially, an individual game with no cap. But in a team game with a real cap, you can't have this element. It truly does have a cancerous affect, I truly believe that.

TO is Albert Belle. He needs chaos around him. I grant to Mike that Owens isn't always seen fairly in the media and in public opinion that has already painted him the antichrist, but TO's done all he can to make his situation as chaotic as it can be. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Done spamming y'all - out.

Eagles Cut Off Nose

2005-08-11T16:26:00.000-04:00

The suddenly less rotund Andy Reid is so eager to drop weight that he's apparently willing to cut off his nose to spite his face.

I made my feelings about T.O. known in the latest Breakfast Table, as did my friend and colleague Scott Pianowski. Did yesterday's events make me change a somewhat pro-Owens stance?

No. I'm not hear to stand in judgment of Owens or Reid or his teammates. People and situations are the way they are. The challenge in life is always to find the areas where our circles overlap. Owens wants to be a great player. The Eagles presumably want great players. And his teammates presumably want to play with great players so that they win and have that success add to their lives financially and in less tangible ways.*

Instead of finding commonality of interest, Eagles players (at least according to published reports) and management have made things immeasurably worse.

But the Eagles are emboldened by a very non-friendly media that simply does not like Owens. I won't speculate why that is here, because that's not the point of this entry (though the answer is obvious). But when the reports say, "Owens Leaves Camp" (when he was expelled by Reid according to those same reports) and, "Owens Seeks to Renegotiate 7-year, $49 million deal he signed last year," well, it's just too tempting for everyone involved to put the screws to Owens. I think Owens is a breath of fresh air in a very stuffy sport. (The block party was a stroke of promotional genius.) I liked the Sharpie and the pom-poms, too. Owens has a tremendous ego, but that's probably why he's such a great player and why he pushes his body to the limits of human conditioning (going shirtless was also a powerful way of illustrating what the Eagles are denying themselves).

Owens is also a smart guy who generally makes good points. He does deserve more money from the Eagles after he risked his career against doctor's orders for their benefit in February. As it stands, Owens is due a huge bonus next spring and if the Eagles decide to cut him beforehand, he's playing 2005 for relative peanuts. Should he live with that deal he signed? His February sacrifice makes that tougher for me to answer. But he's got a much better chance to secure that portion of his signing bonus now than he does in March. He knew what he was getting into last summer, you say? Well, so did Philly.

Owens is not talking and singing autographs. As Owens said, he's not paid to do that. If he's unhappy with the terms of his contract, why do anything more than what is required? He's not talking to teammates. The Eagles are to blame for that because they humiliated Owens by refusing to even allow him to save face in the contractual stare-down. Owens' pride is wounded. That's why he's not interacting with anyone outside the two players (Greg Lewis and Jeremiah Trotter) for whom he feels genuine affection.

Step back for a second. Forget about what you've heard and how events are being spun. Who is being more petulant here, more childish? Owens or Reid and the rest of the Eagles? To me, it's a toss-up.

*Ironically, while Owens gets criticized for putting himself above the team, these players are putting their emotional needs (not having the Owens "distraction") above what is so obviously in the team's interest, i.e., benefiting from Owens' unquestioned abilities as a football player.

Salfino (AL), Ferris (NL) on August 8 - 14

2005-08-07T00:46:00.000-04:00

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Chris Snelling, OF, Mariners: He was hitting .360 in the Pacific Coast League, forcing the Mariners to trade Randy Winn. His debut was delayed only because of some poor roster management by Seattle. He's up for good now and will likely bat second.

Fernando Rodney, P, Tigers: No one saw the Kyle Farnsworth trade coming, so he's a free agent pickup in most leagues. If you got him, congrats. Now use him, as he has the top-shelf stuff needed to emerge as a solid closer.

Bench 'em

Roy Halladay, P, Blue Jays: Toronto is concerned that Halladay's recently healed broken leg will limit his ability to field. They're also very concerned about Halladay altering his motion due to the leg, which risks an arm injury. So keep him benched until you see him start one game.

Orlando Hernandez (P, White Sox): Yes, he has two starts: at the Yanks and at the Red Sox. Check please. El Duque has been up and down all year, battled arm woes and isn't worth the risk this week.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in
Juan Encarnacion, OF, Marlins. The production numbers are solid, and increased patience has kept the batting average afloat. Encarnacion also gets a full seven games to attack this week, including a quick stop at Coors Field.

Jose Valverde, P, Diamondbacks. The Snakes continue to look for possible closers under every rock, but Valverde is the name they need to come back to. He's blowing away hitters right now (14 strikeouts in 6.2 innings), and can work multiple innings, if necessary. Buy in.

Bench 'em

Joe Randa, 3B, Padres. Just because San Diego wanted him doesn't mean you should. Randa is struggling through a .207 funk over the past month with just one home run and five RBIs, and Petco Park isn't going to fix his stats, either (the Pads are at home for all six this week).

Jeff Suppan, P, Cardinals. The league is hitting .296 against him, and Suppan isn't keeping the ball in the park with any regularity, either. His two-start tour this week is simply two more chances for him to take down your ERA and sabotage your ratio. Avoid.